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EggertssonCommodity Prices and the Mistake of 1937
Vaughan / Economics 639 / Fall 2012
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Mistake of 1937
• Decision by Fed to double reserve requirements in three stages from August 1936 to May 1937.
• Rationale:– Excess reserves could lead to lending explosion and
(i) inflation and (ii) another asset bubble. • Result: Serious recession (May 1937 to June 1938)– Industrial production fell 31.8%– Unemployment rose to 19%
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Commodity Prices MisleadingIncreases Driven by Supply Factors, Not Inflation
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Inflation not a Problem
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Fallout from “Mistake of 1937”