EIA Issues in Wind Resource Supply

8/7/2019 EIA Issues in Wind Resource Supply

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Emerging Technologies, Data,and NEM Modeling

Issues in Wind Resource Supply

Data and Modeling

Chris NamoviczASA Committee on Energy Statistics

Fall 2006 MeetingOctober 5, 2006

This is a working document prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in order to solicit advice and

comment on statistical matters from the American Statistical Association Committee on Energy Statistics. Thistopic will be discussed at EIA's fall 2006, meeting with the Committee to be held October 5 and 6, 2006.


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Overview Wind market

Projections Reference Case

Technology Cases

Policy Cases

Key Assumptions Technology

Characteristics

ResourceCharacteristics

Photo Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory


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0

20

40

60

80

100

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

AEO 2006

PTC Extension 06

Salazar GHG 4%

High Renewable Tech

2006 Renewable Tech

Wind Capacity AEO 06 Basis (GW)


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National Energy Modeling System(NEMS)

Used to develop AEO and policy analysisscenarios

Integrated U.S. energy sector model with

macro-economic feedback Feedback among different sectors

Electricity (and wind) uses 13 NERC-basedregions

Updated annually Key assumptions occasionally revisited

New modeling techniques

Adaptable to model new policies


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Key Assumptions

Technology Cost

Performance

Grid interaction Resource limits

Performance

Cost

Photo Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory


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Current Cost From 1998 to 2002: wind costs 1100-1200 $/kW

Evidence post-2003: costs have risen by 25%+ Increased material costs

Unfavorable exchange rates

Supply-chain bottlenecks

Unintended impacts of subsidy policy

Manufacturer profit-taking

NEMS assumes transient cost increase

Based on Form 412 Poor response rate

Questions not designed for wind plants

Survey is no longer funded


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Experience Curves for U.S. Wind Installed Cost and Capacity

Factor

1000

10000

100 1000 10000

Installed Capacity (MW)

0.1

1

Installed Cost (2002 $/kW)

Progress Ratio: 91%

Capacity Factor (fraction)

Progress Ratio: 105%

Cost Learning

Overall cost decline has been significant Most of cost declines occurred early Price over last 5-10 years has been flat-to-increasing

NEMS assumes a 1% learning rate Capital cost doesnt tell the complete story

Chart Source: EIA Form 412, Form 906


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Wind Capacity Factor

Energy cost determined by capital cost andcapacity factor

Capacity factor varies by site

Model assumes current capacity factor rangeof 27 to 38%

Form 906 range: 20% to over 40%

Cant reliably match individual sites to nominal

wind class


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Change in Vintage Average Capacity Factor Over Time

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Capacity Factor

Performance Learning

Capacity factor appears to be improving over time Much variability by site

Capacity factor is an engineering/economic design trade-off Only fundamental limit is 100% Trade-off is maximizing blade utilization vs. maximizing generator utilization

NEMS: capacity factor grows as a function of capacity growth


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Grid Interaction

Intermittent resource - not under operatorcontrol and variable based on weatherconditions

NEMS models 3 system impacts

Reduced value of energy

Reduced contribution to reserve margin

Surplus wind curtailment

Impacts increase with wind capacity share


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Reduced Value of Energy

Wind doesnt always blow when it is most valuable

NEMS: time-of-day/seasonal capacity factors

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Pct. of Annual Hours

Load(GW)

Gas Turbine

Oil/Gas Steam

Comb Cycle

Coal

IGCC

Bio/MSW/GT

Nuclear

Other

Hydro

Wind


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44 46 48 50 52 54

Capacity (GW)

ProbabilityofO

utput

Lower 99.9% of Availability

Avg. Availability (no wind)

Avg. Availability (+2.5% wind)

Avg. Availability (+5% wind)

Avg. Availability (+7.5% wind)

Reduced Contribution to Reserves

No capacity resource has absolutely reliable output

Capacity credit: ratio of load carrying capability to nameplatecapacity

Need wind resource data with better temporal-spatial resolution


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Surplus Wind Curtailment

Once committed, nuclear and coal steam plants are not likely toshut-down for brief surges in wind power production Wind capacity will result in occasional off-peak curtailment to

maintain system balance NEMS derates capacity factor as a function of off-peak penetration

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

205

207

209

211

213

215

217

219

221

223

225

227

229

231

233

235

237

239

Time

Load(MW) Nuclear

Coal

Wind

Surplus

t= 240


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Other Grid Issues

Power quality Addressed by current technology Accounted for in wind technology cost

Regulating Reserves Impacts in timeframe not modeled Modest cost with hour-ahead power markets


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Wind Resources

The 3 Rs of windresource cost: Remoteness

Roughness Restrictions

Map Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory


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Remoteness

Wind-to-electric conversion must occurwhere the wind resource is

Much of the resource will require new lines

Modeled in NEMS

The best wind is generally far from load

Upgrade lines or build with less favorableresources closer to load

EIA-sponsored study underway


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Roughness

The best wind sites are on ridges, hills, or mountains (or overthe ocean) Distance from infrastructure

Transportation Construction services

No significant Analyses to date

Photo

Source:

AndyKyd

es


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Restrictions

Legal or technical restrictions Excluded from NEMS

Competes with other uses for remainingland Regional economic pull or push

Some uses are public goods (viewshed)

Noise and bird kills Most attention focused on a few sites

Some studies have provided limited insight Much work left to be done with scant data


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The 3 Rs in NEMS

Some transmission costs (distance to grid,legal restriction) are explicitly accountedfor

Remainder are accounted for in long-termcost adjustment factor

Factors are based on a few regional studies

of economic wind supplies EIA is currently focusing on improving

representation of transmission costs


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Conclusion

Wind power is a near competitive resource for electricpower generation Subsidy, technology improvement, or higher internalized value for

environmental attributes can make wind very competitive

As wind grows, real world data is becoming available Current levels are small relative to technical or plausible potential

Grid impacts are beginning to be studied in detail

Level at which public acceptance issues become costly orlimiting is highly uncertain, and possibly unknowable

Uncertainty of resource costs add significant uncertainty toforecasts with large wind market growth

Gl


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Glossary 4P Cap and Trade A regulation to control four pollutants (sulfur dioxide SO2, nitrogen oxides - NOx, mercury

- Hg, and carbon dioxide) by utilizing tradable pollution allowance credits Curtailment operator ordered shut-down of generation capacity to maintain system reliability Induction generator an AC generator that produces current slightly faster than the system frequency Intermittent Resource A generation resource that is not under operator control, and is dependent on a naturally

variable energy flux (wind, sunshine, water) IPP Independent Power Producer, a power plant owner not regulated by a state utility commission NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the primary research organization within the Department of

Energy for renewable energy technology Power Quality the attributes of AC power such as voltage deviation, frequency, and reactive power that can

affect the stability of grid operations or the functioning of some sensitive loads PTC Production Tax Credit, a 1.9 cent per kilowatt-hour tax credit available for the first 10 years of energy

production from a wind (or certain other renewable generation) plant. Expires at end of 2007, althoughextensions are possible.

Regulation reserve capacity that is maintained at partial load and frequently adjusted to maintain systemreliability

Reserve margin the difference between maximum anticipated load and available nameplate capacity. Usedfor planning purposes to ensure sufficient generation capacity after accounting for unexpected plant outages.

RPS Renewable Portfolio Standard, a requirement that utilities obtain a minimum fraction of power fromrenewable resources, typically utilizing tradable renewable energy credits to minimize compliance costs

Viewshed The geographic area over which a wind turbine may be seen Wind Class a 7-step scale developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to generally describe the

average wind power available at a given location. 7 is the highest power (800 to 1600 watts per square meter at

50 meters height, corresponding to average winds of 8.8 to 11.1 meters per second), but Class 6 is the highestclass with significant U.S. on-shore resources (about 8 to 8.8 meters per second at 50 meters height)

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EIA Issues in Wind Resource Supply

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