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Elections, Campaigns, & Voting
The who, what, when, where, why, and how of political participation
The Election Process
Nomination (Primaries)
First you have to win your party’s nomination
Doing well early on matters (remember Howard Dean?)
Mostly decided by primary voting today (not caucuses)◦Open Primaries◦Closed Primaries
Announced at Convention
General ElectionWhen we actually vote for
president (or congressperson, or whomever)◦Formal eligibility requirements
See Constitution
◦Informal requirements White Wealthy Well known Ok, not really, but it seems to help…
The Electoral College
The Electoral College
Under the original Constitution people didn’t vote for the president directly
Each state appointed “electors” equal to the number of representatives in Congress to form an electoral college and make a decision
The college still exists, though it’s pretty much a rubber stamp now (and widely criticized)
It forces politicians to focus on states, not just individual voters (see voting strategies section later on in this presentation)
How to win
How to WinRun an effective campaign
Get the media on your side
Raise and spend money like there’s no tomorrow (more on this in a bit)
It also helps to be an incumbent
Incumbent victories in Congress
Incumbent victories in Congress
Incumbents (those seeking reelection)◦90% of House incumbents win◦70% of Senate incumbents win
Advantages of incumbents:◦Name Recognition◦Campaign Contributions◦Resources of Office (franking
privilege)
How should you run a campaign?
It’s not JUST money
Hire professional campaign consultants◦Manager, fund raiser, media guy (or
gal), etc.Follow polls closelyUse the media effectivelyAdvertise
◦Marketing/PackagingDon’t be afraid to go negativeHAVE A STRATEGY !
Strategy?
Campaign Strategies
Front-End strategy◦Especially during the primaries
Big-State strategyBattleground-State strategyFocus on the undecided (swing
voters)Insider vs. OutsiderHave a clear and consistent
message
Understand how voters voteRetrospective Voting
◦It’s the economy stupid!
Prospective Voting◦What will you do for me?
Non Voting◦Why should I give a damn?
Campaign Finance
How much do campaigns cost?
A LOT!◦House: $1,000,000 every two years◦Senate $10,000,000 every six years
$25-50 million in large states◦The 2006 Congressional Campaigns
cost a total of $1.5 billion◦The 2008 Presidential Campaigns cost
a total of $2.4 billion◦Total spending on campaigns for
elections in 2008 was about $5.3 billion
What can you do with $5.3 billion?
Buy every single share of stock in China’s largest oil company
Buy everything the US exported to China in 2006
Buy MCI
Give every US citizen about $17.50
How the #%&!! do they raise that much?
Public Money (there’s a box on your tax form), but it comes with strings attached
Small Donations (Obama cleaned up on the internet with small donations)
Large Individual Donors ($2,300 limit)
Self-Financing (Hillary had lots of debt)
Indirect donations ◦PAC’s, 527 groups, etc.
Campaign Finance Reform
Reforms and LoopholesLimit Direct Donations
Independent Expenditures & Soft Money
Limit Soft MoneyFormation of PAC’s
Limit PAC Influence527 Groups
Reporting RequirementsActually pretty successful
Recent Developments?Fewer limits on private businesses (freedom of speech)
The Pros and Cons of Reform
PROSMoney makes
people unequal and that’s undemocratic
We have better things to spend money on
The rich are the ones who LEAST need extra influence
CONSLimits on donations
infringe on freedom of speech and that’s undemocratic
Strict rules actually hurt the little guys
There’s always a loophole somewhere
To vote or not to vote…
Voter turnout in national elections
Why Americans don’t vote as much as other nationalities
Independent registration requirements
Lots of elections (on Tuesdays)
Little difference between parties
They don’t have to
US turnout by state (2004)
US turnout by age
US turnout by race (etc.)
US turnout by wealth
Why Certain Americans don’t vote
Socioeconomic Factors
First off, correlation does not imply causation
Factors associated with low turnout◦Young or very old◦Poor◦Uneducated◦Minority status
◦Even religion seems to matter
Attitudes towards voting
ApathyAlienationVoter FatigueRational AbstentionCivic DutyPartisanship, interest, concern,
etc.◦Salience (how much things matter)
Is low participation a bad thing?
NOPeople who don’t
care and are uninformed shouldn’t have an influence over important policy decisions
Experts make better, more stable choices
YESAs fewer people
vote, those who do become less and less representative of the population as a whole
Also, low participation reflects a break down of all societal ties