ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET UPDATE

16TH ANNUAL ENERGY

FORECASTING MEETING / EFG

AUSTIN, TX

APRIL 26-28, 2018

MIKE RUSSO, ITRON, INC.

MONTHLY U.S. EV SALES

• 2016 Growth – 37%

• 2017 Growth – 26%

Source: “Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard”, Inside EVs.

MONTHLY U.S. EV MARKET SHARE

Sources: “Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard”, Inside EVs. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Motor Vehicle

Unit Retail Sales

TOP SELLING VEHICLES IN 2016

Source: USA Today, Kelly Blue Book

POPULAR MODELS

» Approximately 200,000 vehicles were sold in 2017. Tesla accounted for

25% of all vehicle sales.

Source: “Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard”, Inside EVs.

TOP 10 MODELS

» Costs shown are starting base MSRP. But costs can vary significantly.

Tesla S ranges from $73,000-$134,000.

» Annual kWh is based on 12,000 miles driven

» Range shown is for electric drive only

Sources: www.fueleconomy.gov, manufacturer websites, Inside EVs.

Model

Units Sold

in 2017 Cost

Fuel Economy

(kWh/100 mi.) Range* Annual kWh

Tesla S 27,060 73,000$ 32 218 3,840

Chevy Bolt 23,297 36,620$ 28 238 3,360

Tesla X 21,315 100,150$ 36 200 4,320

Toyota Prius Prime 20,943 27,100$ 25 25 1,500

Chevy Volt 20,349 33,220$ 31 53 1,860

Nissan LEAF 11,230 30,680$ 30 107 3,600

Ford Fusion 9,632 33,120$ 35 22 2,100

Ford C-Max 8,140 27,120$ 35 20 2,100

BMW i3 6,276 44,450$ 29 114 3,480

Fiat 500e 5,380 31,800$ 30 84 3,600

TOP 10 MODELS

» Costs shown are starting base MSRP. But costs can vary significantly.

Tesla S ranges from $73,000-$134,000.

» Annual kWh is based on 12,000 miles driven

» Range shown is for electric drive only

Sources: www.fueleconomy.gov, manufacturer websites, Inside EVs.

Model

Units Sold

in 2017 Cost

Fuel Economy

(kWh/100 mi.) Range* Annual kWh

Tesla S 27,060 73,000$ 32 218 3,840

Chevy Bolt 23,297 36,620$ 28 238 3,360

Tesla X 21,315 100,150$ 36 200 4,320

Toyota Prius Prime 20,943 27,100$ 25 25 1,500

Chevy Volt 20,349 33,220$ 31 53 1,860

Nissan LEAF 11,230 30,680$ 30 107 3,600

Ford Fusion 9,632 33,120$ 35 22 2,100

Ford C-Max 8,140 27,120$ 35 20 2,100

BMW i3 6,276 44,450$ 29 114 3,480

Fiat 500e 5,380 31,800$ 30 84 3,600

TESLA MODEL 3

» With optional extended range battery ($9,000) and auto pilot ($5,000),

cost approaches $50,000.

» Currently a 12-18 month wait for vehicle delivery.

» Advertised base price of

$35,000; before federal and

state incentives

» Range of 220 -310 miles

FEDERAL CREDIT

» The tax credit is $2,500, for vehicles with at least 5 kWh of capacity, plus

an additional $417 for each kWh in excess of 5 kWh. The maximum

incentive is $7,500.

Model Credit

Tesla S 7,500$

Chevy Bolt 7,500$

Tesla X 7,500$

Toyota Prius Prime 4,502$

Chevy Volt 7,500$

Nissan LEAF 7,500$

Ford Fusion 4,007$

Ford C-Max 4,007$

BMW i3 7,500$

Fiat 500e 7,500$

EXPIRATION OF FEDERAL CREDIT

» Credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period

beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in

which 200,000 vehicles have been sold.

Example

200,000th Tesla

sold August 5th

2018

Phase out starts

beginning of the second

calendar quarter

Phase out further

reduced beginning of

the fourth calendar

quarter

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

25% of Credit

2018 2019

Full Credit Amount 50% of Credit

WHICH MANUFACTURE WILL HIT 200,000

FIRST?

» General Motors and Tesla will likely hit the 200,000 mark at some point in

2018.

» 2018 YTD includes sales through February.

Source: “Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard”, Inside EVs.

Maker Prior to 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD Ttl

GM 7,671 23,461 23,633 21,260 19,046 28,887 43,893 4,327 172,178

Tesla 1,900 2,650 17,650 16,689 25,416 47,119 50,147 7,860 169,431

Nissan 9,674 9,819 22,610 30,200 17,269 14,006 11,230 1,045 115,853

Toyota 0 12,942 13,117 14,448 4,191 2,474 20,936 3,546 71,654

Ford 500 3,054 14,981 21,947 18,923 24,796 19,589 1,953 105,743

Units Sold in the U.S. Since 2009

EV SALES PROJECTIONS

12

» 2018 EIA Annual Energy Outlook

• EVs account for 7% of new vehicles sales in 2025 and 12% by 2040

ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN HYBRID

13

» 2018 EIA Annual Energy Outlook

REVISION OF PAST EIA EV FORECASTS

14

» EIA Annual Energy Outlook

• Slowly becoming a believer

OTHER EV FORECASTS

15

Sources: 2018 EIA Annual Energy Outlook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance: Electric Vehicle

Outlook 2017, Energy Policy Simulator.

16

GLOBAL EV OUTLOOK

» Electric car sales, market share, and BEV and PHEV sales

shares in selected countries: 2010-2016

Source: “Global EV Outlook 2017”, International Energy Agency, 2017.

17

GLOBAL EV OUTLOOK

» Market share of electric cars in leading EV countries: 2016

Source: “Global EV Outlook 2017”, International Energy Agency, 2017.

FACTORS THAT IMPACT EV ADOPTION

» Electric rates.

» Pairing with PV system

» Charging Infrastructure

» State, Local, and Utility Incentives

» Social Perception

BATTERY COST PROJECTIONS

Source: Bloomberg New Energy

Finance

EIA BATTERY COST PROJECTIONS

Source: EIA AEO 2018

POLICY DRIVES ADOPTION: VERMONT

» Vermont Utilities, in Conjunction with Nissan, offered:

• $10,000 dealer rebate on every Leaf (Nissan funded)

• $500-$1,200 Utility rebate

• Free Level 2 chargers w/ unlimited off-peak charging at flat rate

• $7,500 Federal Incentive

» Out-of-pocket costs were as low as $11,300 for a new Leaf

» As a result over 150 Nissan Leafs were sold in Vermont last summer:

this represented 3.2% of all U.S. Leaf sales in a market with only 0.2% of

the U.S. population.

» Burlington VT dealership was #2 in Leaf sales in the nation, second only

to San Francisco.

DOES AN EV MAKE ECONOMIC SENSE?

TEXAS

» $0.12 per kWh

» $2.29 per gallon of gasoline

29,000 miles or

2.4 years

» $7,500 federal EV credit

» $2,500 state EV Credit

DOES AN EV MAKE ECONOMIC SENSE?

MASSACHUSETTS

» $0.24 per kWh

» $2.45 per gallon of gasoline

99,000 miles or

8.3 years

» $7,500 federal EV credit

» $2,500 state EV Credit

WHAT ABOUT MAINTENANCE COSTS

» EVs are regularly advertised as having lower maintenance costs than their

gas counterparts

• Nissan Leaf maintenance schedule calls for annual brake fluid

changes; approximately $125.

• Tesla’s first year scheduled maintenance cost is $475-$625,

depending on the model. 3 year maintenance plans can be

purchased at a discount.

» Gasoline vehicle maintenance costs can increase over time with

procedures such as transmission fluid changes, brake pads (EVs brake

components tend to last longer due to regenerative braking), and spark

plug replacement.

CHARGING PROFILE

Source: “Joint IOU Electric Vehicle Load Research Report”, filed with the Public Utilities

Commission of the State of California, Dec 2016.

» EV charging could have significant impact on peak particularly where

solar is shifting the peak to the late afternoon and early evening.

IMPLICATIONS ON SYSTEM PROFILE

» New England utility with projected EV sales of 40% of total vehicle sales

» No EV incentive charging rate results in a 8% peak increase and moves

the peak 3 hours into the evening.

» Incentive rate would result in only a 2% peak increase.

USEFUL RESOURCES

» U.S. Dept. of Energy: Fuel Economy

• www.fueleconomy.gov

• List all current EV and PHEV on sale; prices, driving range, and

federal incentives

» U.S. Dept. of Energy: Alternative Fuels Data Center

• www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric.html

• List of federal and state laws and incentives

» Inside EVs

• www.insideEVs.com

• National monthly sales data by make and model

» Plugin Cars

• www.plugincars.com/

• Buyers guide and vehicle reviews

THANK YOU

www.itron.com

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS

Mike Russo

Michael.russo@itron.com

617.423.7660 X4