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ENERGY TRENDS & BENCHMARKING SURVEY 15TH ANNUAL ENERGY FORECASTING MEETING / EFG CHICAGO, IL APRIL 26-28, 2017 MARK QUAN MICHAEL RUSSO
ENERGY TRENDS &BENCHMARKING SURVEY
15TH ANNUAL ENERGY
FORECASTING MEETING / EFG
CHICAGO, IL
APRIL 26-28, 2017
MARK QUAN
MICHAEL RUSSO
U.S. ELECTRICITY SALES (TWH)
Computed as 12 month moving sum of monthly class sales
Data updated through December 2016
ANNUAL ELECTRICITY SALES (TWH)
Computed as 12 month moving sum of monthly class sales
Data updated through December 2016
2010 WEATHER
High Plains Regional Climate Center (http://www.hprcc.unl.edu)
Hotter than average summer in
south and east
Very cold winter
2011 WEATHER
High Plains Regional Climate Center (http://www.hprcc.unl.edu)
Hotter than average summer
in South
Colder than average winter
West, but warmer in the East
2012 WEATHER
High Plains Regional Climate Center (http://www.hprcc.unl.edu)
Hotter than average summer
Warmer than average winter
2013 WEATHER
High Plains Regional Climate Center (http://www.hprcc.unl.edu)
Very normal Summer
Very normal Winter
2014 WEATHER
High Plains Regional Climate Center (http://www.hprcc.unl.edu)
Cool summer in the east
Cold winter in East
Warm winter in West
CDD65 Departure from Normal
HDD65 Departure from Normal
2015 WEATHER
High Plains Regional Climate Center (http://www.hprcc.unl.edu)
Very mild summer
Warm winter
CDD65 Departure from Normal
HDD65 Departure from Normal
2016 WEATHER
High Plains Regional Climate Center (http://www.hprcc.unl.edu)
Very mild summer
Warm winter
CDD65 Departure from Normal
HDD65 Departure from Normal
Computed as 12 month moving sum of monthly class sales
Data updated through December 2016
U.S. NATURAL GAS SALES (BCF)
U.S. NATURAL GAS SALES (BCF)
Computed as 12 month moving sum of monthly class sales
Data updated through December 2016
UNITED STATES RETAIL GAS SALES
2010 Cold Winter in Southeast 2014 Cold East/Warm West
2011 Cold Winter in West 2015 Warm Winter
2012 Warm Winter 2016 Warm Winter
2013 Normal Winter
REAL ELECTRICITY PRICES ($2012/MWH)
Computed as 12 month moving average of monthly $/MWh by class
Data updated through December 2016
REAL GAS PRICES ($2012/MCF)
Computed as 12 month moving average of average $/MCF
Data updated through December 2016
REAL ENERGY PRICES ($2012)
Prices are12 month moving averages
2017 BENCHMARKING SURVEY
2017 Respondents (April 2017) represent 1,970 Billion kWh of electric
sales and 0.95 BCF of natural gas in North America.
2017 Weights are approximate energy weights used in the weighted
average calculations
Number of Respondents
Preliminary Results (4/10/16)
REGIONS
CUSTOMER GROWTHPreliminary Results (4/10/17)
Forecast
Forecast
RESIDENTIAL SALES (%)Preliminary Results (4/10/17)
NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES (%)Preliminary Results (4/10/17)
Forecast(2.36)
ACTUAL GROWTH RATES
EIA Monthly Data. Not weather adjusted.
NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES (%)Preliminary Results (4/10/17)
Commercial Sales
Industrial Sales
Non-Residential Sales
TOTAL (SYSTEM) SALES (%)Preliminary Results (4/10/17)
(1.53)Forecast
ITRON TOTAL SALES GROWTH (%)
* Pacific and West excludes HI and AK Low Industrial Growth
Mild Summer
Warm Winter
12 MONTH ROLLING SUM: TOTAL SALES
PEAK FORECASTS (%)Preliminary Results (4/10/17)
Forecast
FORECAST CHARACTERISTICSPreliminary Results (4/10/17)
Percent Finished in 2nd
Half of Year
2016: 80%
2017: 70%
ENERGY FORECAST METHODSPreliminary Results (4/10/17)
NORMAL WEATHERPreliminary Results (4/10/17)
2017 Survey: 75 Responses
2013 Survey: 126 Responses
2006 Survey: 106 Responses
Other includes years and methods that cannot be classified into the specified categories
FORECAST SCENARIOSPreliminary Results (4/10/17)
FORECAST ACCURACYPreliminary Results (4/10/17)
Electric Responses (MAPE)
Natural Gas Responses (MAPE)
Results are unweighted
2017: Mild Winter
RES/COM ERRORS
Against Normalized Actuals Against Actuals
Preliminary Results (4/10/17)
Actual below Forecast Actual above ForecastActual below Forecast Actual above Forecast
SYSTEM ERRORS
Against Normalized Actuals Against Actuals
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
mp
an
ies
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
mp
an
ies
Actual below Forecast Actual above ForecastActual below Forecast Actual above Forecast
Preliminary Results (4/10/17)
RELATIONSHIP WITH ECONOMICS
NATURAL GAS
Small sample. Twelve (12)
companies reporting results
Actual below Forecast Actual above Forecast
2017 ELECTRIC SYSTEM FORECAST
Survey Growth:
About 0.5%
21 TWh/Year*
Historic Growth:
Linear through 2008
62 TWh/Year
Forecast is the sum of Residential, Commercial, and Industrial sales
WEATHER ADJUSTED RESIDENTIAL AVERAGE USE
Steady through 2008.
Annual Gain = 120 kWh/year
Growth Rate = 1.2%
Historical data is a 12-month running sum of weather normalized sales
Decline from
2008 to 2016 is
about 7.6%
Current forecast
is 0.4% decline
per year
2017 NATURAL GAS FORECAST
Forecast is the sum of Residential, Commercial, and Industrial sales
Survey Growth:
About 0.26%
0.05 BCF/Year*
1974-2015 Average
16.6 BCF/Year
PAST FORECASTS
THANK YOU
www.itron.com
SAN DIEGO
Mark Quan
858.724.2649
www.linkedin.com/in/markquan/
http://blogs.itron.com/forecasting/
BOSTON
Michael Russo
617.423.7660
linkedin.com/in/michael-russo-10989252
