EMERGING TRENDSin

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

By

Maj Gen (Dr)R K Bagga AVSM

INFORMATION DOUBLING PERIODS(GEORGE ANDRELA, FRANCE 1973)

INFORMATION EXPLOSION REMARKSYEAR PERIOD0AD 15001500 250 PRINTING PRESS1750 150 1900 50 1950 17 COMPUTER1967 6 1973 3 *128 TIMES AD11976 - (THE ELECTRONIC BAZAR by ROBIN

BLOOR) .

1991 . INTERNET2000 . EVERY MONTH ?

.2003 . EVERY MINUTE ?

Managing Today’s Enterprise• Global

Competition • Operations Geographically Dispersed

• Mergers, Acquisitions & Dependencies

• Customer Expectations Changing

Computer + Communication(Process/Store) (Transfer)

IS

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

Intel Microprocessor Evolution

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995Transistors MIPS

0.1

0.1

1.0

25

500

10K

100K

1M

10M

100M

4004

8080

8088

80286

80386

80486

PentiumTM

Processor

P6

Micro2000

Intel microprocessors have approximately doubled in transistorcount every 18 months. At this rate, Intel processors shouldcontain between 50 to 100 million transistors by the turn of thecentury and execute 2 billion instructions per second.

• Actual Predicted

1.00E + 07

1.00E + 06

1.00E + 05

1.00E + 04

1.00E + 03

1.00E + 08

Nu

mb

er o

f t

ran

sist

ors

• 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

•

••

•

••

•

Moore’s Law for Semiconductor Technology

Year

• Actual modem speeds “Moore’s Law” prediction

1000

100

10

1

0.1

10,000

Tra

nsm

issi

on

rat

e (k

b/s

)

• 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003

•• • •

••

•••

•

••

Moore’s Law for Bandwidth(suggested IEEE Comsoc Oct99)

Year

INTERNET EXPLOSION

Internet host computers grew from 300,000 in 1990 to 2.2 million in 1993

INCREASE 50Million--- 1% Per DaySource: SRI International / Communication

Educational 45%Commercial 37%Military 7%Govt 8%Others 3%

INTERNET INTRANET EXTRANET

Information is primarily for external

access but can be usedinternally

Information canonly be accessed

internally

External access is limited to main trading

partners

INTERNET / INTRANET / ENTRANETINTERNET / INTRANET / ENTRANET

WEB

12 million e-mail messages in next minute, in addition to 0.5 million voice mail messages

37 million people will log on to the net todayand choose from 830 million web pages!

In the next 100 days, Internet traffic will double

More than 100 million additional Internet usersand 25 million websites will come on-line in 2000

More than 25 million new Web sites will come on-line in the next year

E-commerce projected to reach $7 trillion by 2004

More than 600 million devices connected to cellular networks by 2002

Global Internet Users

1994 1998 2000

151M

327M

18M

THE SPEED OF CHANGE OF THE INTERNET IS DRIVING INFRASTRUCTURE GROWTH

METCALF MAGIC LAW

“ VALUE OF A NETWORK IS PROPORTIONAL TO SQUARE OF

THE NUMBER OF USERS ”

TOTAL NETWORK BENEFIT = KU2

K = CONSTANTU = USERS

GARTNER GROUP FORECASTGARTNER GROUP FORECAST

By 2001 140 million Internet users Worldwide

By 2001 Gap between developed and developing countries decrease by 40%

By 2003 Internet adoption Worldwide as function of economic growth

Decreased local Internet access costs in developing countries

By 2003 ISP market will go from explosion to restructuring through consolidation

By 2003 Super Carriers will give multi- national gateways for Worldwide Internet access.

Acceleration for encryption and Worldwide Government restriction on use of Internet.

Contd… GARTNER GROUP FORECAST GARTNER GROUP FORECAST

INTERNET BUBBLE - IPO’S(PERKINS - RED HERING)

COMPANY % RETURN (MAY 1998 - APR, 1999)

HEALTHEON 3339e-BAY 3269ABOVENET 1853AMERI TRADE 1105MESSAGE MEDIA 886GO2NET 872CMG 792INFO*TRADE 952BOTTOMLINE TECHNOLOGIES 611

THE INDIANS IN ITTHE INDIANS IN IT

HOTMAIL … SABEER BHATIA

JUNGLEE … RAKESH MATHUR ET AL

SYCAMORE … GURURAJ DESHPANDE

TIBCO … VIVEK RANADIVE

i2 TECHNOLOGIES… SANJIV SIDHU

ART TECH GP … JEET SINGH

JUNIPER … PRADEEP SINDHU

INFOSPACE … NAVIN JAIN

REDBACK … VIVEK RAGHAVAN

E-SPEAK … RAJIV GUPTA

DOT.COM GRAVE YARD (www.upside.com/graveyard)

4 JULY 2001NameName BornBorn DiedDied Bush RateBush Rate

(Millions)

Bazillon.com 1999 15 Jan 2001 Nil Carclub.com - 1 May, 2001 $45 MCyber Rebate.com May, 1998 16 May, 2001 NilDasti’s*new* Jan, 2000 June, 2001 $100 MFoodline.com Late 1998 2 Jan 2001 -Honebytes.com 1998 1 May 2001 $12 Mimotors.com Sept, 1999 25 Apr, 2001 $39 MKozmo.com 1997 12 Apr 2001 $80 MMarchFirst.com 1999 May, 2001 $20 MRx.com June, 1989 10 May 2001 $350 MSpacework.com 1993 1 May 2001 $6 MVoter.com Mar, 1999 6 Feb 2001 $2 M

NASDAQ DOW JONE30

20

10

0

10

20

30

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

INDIA 2000BS ICE INDEX

ICE Market in INDIA & theWORLD-2000

500500

400400

300300

200200

100100

00

245245

449449

148148154154 159159

10 INTERNET PREDICTIONS BY MR MODEM

1. Web shakeout to continue for one more year 2. Web to stabilize in 2 years (by 2003) 3. Info. Availability (anywhere, any time) will not replace Human Decision Process 4. Internet based education programme to increase 5. Private online communication will proliferate 6. Pager, PDA & Cellphone to converge

Contd… 10 INTERNET PREDICTIONSBY MR MODEM

7. Immediate access to Info will be norm 8. Internet Telephone will reduce call charges 9. Internet users will be all pervasive10. E-Commerce – will depend on 3A’s.

- Authenticator- Authorization- Assurance

( Internet Guide for Seniors ) - RICHARD SHERMAN

De-mystify I T Concept?

Quality • TQM, ISO, CMM, ...

Optimize• JIT, KANBAN, ...

1970s 1980s 1990s

Client/Server

Beyond (Y2K)

MainFrames

InformationAge!

PCs

Y2K

Networks

Mass --------> Lean --------> Flexible -----> Agile --->>>Mass --------> Lean --------> Flexible -----> Agile --->>>

Strategy• SBP, Benchmarking, ...

Process• BPR, ABC, ABM, ...

Knowledge• KM

Wearable

LEADERSHIP FOR E-BUSINESS

“Five years from now, all companies will be Internet companies, or no companies at all.”

-Andy Grove, Chairman of Intel, 1999

Who is going to lead the transformation in your company?

How will they transform the company?

IT VALUE CREATION IN NEW e-CONOMY

INFO FREEDOM & GLOBALISATION

MORE EFFICIENT MARKET

CUSTOMISATION

LOWER TRANSACTION COST

NEW ENTRANT TO ESTABLISH MARKET e/m-COMMERCE

EXPLOITION OF IT & INTERNET

MERGERS & ACQUISITION

GANG OF FOUR

1.E-MAIL

2.WEBSITE

3.SEARCH ENGINES

4.MUD (MULTI USER DOMAIN) OR COMMUNITY

Framework of Global IT(Govt. Hands Off)

• Private Sector to lead via market-driven self regulation

• Govt. not to impose New/Unnecessary regulation, bureaucratic procedures, taxes/tariffs• Internet is unique & does not fall under jurisdiction of existing laws & regulations

Framework of Global IT(Govt. Hands Off)

• Cyber Laws - Consistent/Predictable legal

environment for IPR, fraud prevention &

privacy - Min involvement of Govt.

• Facilitate E-Commerce on Global Basis !

GUI - USER FRIENDLY

STORAGE CAPACITY - INCREASE DRAMATICALLY

DATA WAREHOUSE - TERABYTE INFO

MULTIMEDIA - INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY

INTELLIGENT SYSTEM - INCREASE / IMPORTANCE

OBJECT - ORIENTED TECHNIQUE - WIDE ACCEPTABILITY

COMPUTERS SIZE - INCREASINGLY COMPACT

EMERGING TRENDS-COMPUTERSCOMPUTERS

CLIENT - SERVER ARCHITECTURE - PRE-DOMINANT PORTABLE / MOBILE - INCREASINGLY HOME COMPUTING - ON DEMAND SERVICES INTERNET NG - SUPER HIGHWAY INTRANET - ENTERPRISE KNOWLEDGE

REPOSITORY ELECTRONIC COMMERCE - CHANGE BUSINESS

WAYS INTELLIGENT SEARCH AGENTS - AT YOUR SERVICE

COST EFFECTIVE SOLUTION !

EVEN IN INDIAN ENVIRONMENT

EMERGING TRENDS -NETWORKINGNETWORKING

JDI- DIRECTIVE(Robin Bloor)

Make sure every one in the company has a PC, Internet access.

Order all executives to surf Web on daily basis (Even CEO)

Encourage use of email

Insist that Marketing Department monitors the WEB for competition

Insist Procurement Department use the WEB to check prices

If not on WEB – Do it now or Die

Any Questions ?