ENERGY POLICY OF POLAND UNTIL 2030 ENERGY POLICY OF POLAND UNTIL 2030 ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT PROGRAMMEENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT PROGRAMME
LEON KURCZABINSKI Ph.D.KATOWICKI HOLDING WĘGLOWY SA / CEEP
POWER INDUSTRY IN POLAND TODAYPOWER INDUSTRY IN POLAND TODAY
2010/20112010/2011
ELECTRICITY GENERATIONELECTRICITY GENERATION
•CAPACITY INSTALLED IN POWER PLANTS 36 058 MW•CAPACITY OF THE BIGGEST THERMAL P.P. 4 440 MW•ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION 157 628 GWh / y•ELECTRICITY GENERATION EFFICIENCY (THERMAL PLANTS ) 37,9 % net•ELECTICITY PRODUCTION IN COGENERATION approx 20 % •ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA 4 139 kWh
STRUCTURE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY SOURCESSTRUCTURE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY SOURCES
SOURCE GWh / Y %____________________________________________________________HARD COAL 87 941 55,8LIGNITE 48 651 30,9BIOMASS (co – firing with coal ) 6 305 4,0NATURAL GAS 4 797 3,0HYDRO 3 488 2,3WIND 1 644 0,7 OTHERS 4 802 3,3
POWER INDUSTRY IN POLAND TODAYPOWER INDUSTRY IN POLAND TODAY
2010/20112010/2011
HEAT GENERATION HEAT GENERATION –– CENTRAL HEATING SYSTEMCENTRAL HEATING SYSTEM
•CAPACITY INSTALLED IN CHP 59 264 MWt•HEAT PRODUCTION 434 700 TJ•CENTRAL HEATING SYSTEM (HEATING BUILDINGS AND HOT WATER) 260 000 TJ•HEAT GENERATION EFFICIENCY av. 80
STRUCTURE OF HEAT GENERATION BY SOURCESSTRUCTURE OF HEAT GENERATION BY SOURCES
SOURCE %____________________________________________________________COAL 76,0NATURAL GAS 10,0OIL 9,5RENEWABLE 4,5 OTHERS 1,0
POWER INDUSTRY IN POLAND TODAYPOWER INDUSTRY IN POLAND TODAY
2010/20112010/2011
IMPORT DEPENDANCEIMPORT DEPENDANCE
•NATURAL GAS 68 %•CRUDE OIL 98 %•NUCLEAR 100 %
TOTAL IMPORT DEPENDANCE (2005)TOTAL IMPORT DEPENDANCE (2005)
•POLAND 17,5 %•GERMANY 61,6 %•FRANCE 51,7 %•SPAIN 81,3 %•UK 13,6 %•EU – 27 52,6 %
POWER INDUSTRY IN POLAND TODAYPOWER INDUSTRY IN POLAND TODAY
2010/20112010/2011
TOTAL CONSUMPTION OF COALTOTAL CONSUMPTION OF COAL
ELECTRICITY GENERATION ELECTRICITY GENERATION
•HARD COAL 38 – 44 MT / Y•LIGNITE 54 – 56 MT / Y
CHPP AND HP CHPP AND HP –– STEAM AND HOT WATER FOR CHSSTEAM AND HOT WATER FOR CHS
•HARD COAL 13,5 – 16,5 (21,5) MT / Y
HEATING OF BUILDINGS AND HOT WATER HEATING OF BUILDINGS AND HOT WATER ( WITHOUT PUBLIC CHS )( WITHOUT PUBLIC CHS )
8,5 – 11,5 MT /Y
COCO2 2 EMISSION 314 MT / Y EMISSION 314 MT / Y -- 1 % OF THE WORLD EMISSION1 % OF THE WORLD EMISSION
LEGAL CONDITIONSLEGAL CONDITIONS
ENERGY ENERGY –– CLIMATIC PACKAGE 3 X 20 % ( + 10 % BIOFUELS)CLIMATIC PACKAGE 3 X 20 % ( + 10 % BIOFUELS)
• DIRECTIVE 2010/75/EU (IED) DIRECTIVE 2010/75/EU (IED) ON INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS (integrated prevention and control of pollution)• DIRECTIVE 2009/29/EC (ETS) - GREENHOUSE GAS EMISION ALLOWANCE TRADING• DIRECTIVE 2009/31/EC - ON THE GEOLOGICAL STORAGE OF CO2• DIRECTIVE 2009/28/EC - PROMOTION OF ENERGY FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES• DIRECTIVE 2003/96/WE - TAXATION OF ENERGY PRODUCTS AND ELECTRICITY
NATURAL AND POLITICAL CIRCUMSTANCESNATURAL AND POLITICAL CIRCUMSTANCES
•• LIMITED POSSIBILITIES OF IMPORT OF THE NATURAL GAS TO 14 LIMITED POSSIBILITIES OF IMPORT OF THE NATURAL GAS TO 14 –– 16 BLN 16 BLN
m3 (m3 (AT REASONABLE AT REASONABLE PRICES) PRICES) –– …… SHALE GAS ?SHALE GAS ?
•• FULL IMPORT DEPENDACE OF THE CRUDE OILFULL IMPORT DEPENDACE OF THE CRUDE OIL AND NUCLEAR FUELAND NUCLEAR FUEL
•• LIMITED POSSIBILITIES OF IMPORT OF THE ELECTRICAL ENERGY LIMITED POSSIBILITIES OF IMPORT OF THE ELECTRICAL ENERGY
( MAX. 10 000 GWh ( MAX. 10 000 GWh -- LACK OF THE TRANSBORDER CONNECTIONS)LACK OF THE TRANSBORDER CONNECTIONS)
•• MAJORITY OF THE POWER PLANTS HAVE BEEN CONSTRUCTED BETWEEN MAJORITY OF THE POWER PLANTS HAVE BEEN CONSTRUCTED BETWEEN
1965 1965 –– 1980 ( AFTER 1990 ONLY 3 700 MW)1980 ( AFTER 1990 ONLY 3 700 MW)
•• NATURALNATURAL CONDITIONS FOR CONDITIONS FOR THE RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION THE RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION
12 12 –– 14 % (WIND + BIOMASSE)14 % (WIND + BIOMASSE)
1. ENERGY POLICY OF POLAND UNTIL 2030 (Ministry of Economy)1. ENERGY POLICY OF POLAND UNTIL 2030 (Ministry of Economy)
2. ACTION PLAN2. ACTION PLAN FOR 2009 FOR 2009 –– 20122012
PRIMARY DIRECTIONSPRIMARY DIRECTIONS
•• IMPROVEMENT OF THE ENERGY EFFICIENCYIMPROVEMENT OF THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY
•• ENHANCEMENT OF THE SECURITY OF FUELS AND ENERGY SUPPLIESENHANCEMENT OF THE SECURITY OF FUELS AND ENERGY SUPPLIES
•• DIVERSIFICATION OF THE ELECTRICITY GENERATION STRUCTURE BY DIVERSIFICATION OF THE ELECTRICITY GENERATION STRUCTURE BY
INTRODUCING NUCLEAR ENERGYINTRODUCING NUCLEAR ENERGY
•• DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES, INCLUDING BIOFUELSDEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES, INCLUDING BIOFUELS
•• DEVELOPMENT OF COMPETITIVE FUEL AND ENERGY MARKETSDEVELOPMENT OF COMPETITIVE FUEL AND ENERGY MARKETS
•• REREDDUCTION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF THE POWER INDUSTRYUCTION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF THE POWER INDUSTRY
FORECAST OF THE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTIONFORECAST OF THE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
2010 2020 2030
TWh 156,3 182,3 209,5
FUTURE NEEDS = equivalent of 20(30) MT / y of coal
FINAL ENTIRE REDUCTION OF CO2 FINAL ENTIRE REDUCTION OF CO2 –– 60 60 -- 70 MT70 MT
SOURCE
2010 2020 2030
MW % MW % MW %
LIGNITE 9177 25,3 8184 18,4 10884 21,2
HARD COAL 22157 61,1 22117 49,8 18065 35,1
NATURAL GAS 760 2,1 1624 3,6 3700 7,2
OIL 730 2 882 2 910 1,8
NUCLEAR 0 0 1600 3,6 4800 9,3
RENEWABLE ( WIND ) 3456 9,5 10057 22,6 13053 25,4
TOTAL 36280 100 44464 100 51412 100
STRUCTURE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION STRUCTURE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION -- CAPACITY INSTALLEDCAPACITY INSTALLED
SOURCE
2010 2020 2030
ktoe % ktoe % ktoe %
HARD COAL 20665 59,1 17722 47,6 18331 40,5
LIGNITE 11091 31,7 9266 24,9 9615 21,2
NATURAL GAS 970 2,8 1623 4,4 2473 5,55
OIL 591 1,7 791 2,1 837 1,8
NUCLEAR 0 0 2515 6,7 7546 16,7
RENEWABLE 1461 4,3 5128 13,8 6212 13,8
OTHERS 154 0,4 168 0,5 201 0,45
TOTAL 34932 100 37213 100 45215 100
STRUCTURE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY SOURCESSTRUCTURE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY SOURCES
ENERGY EFFICIENCY = PRIORITY OF THE ENERGY POLICYENERGY EFFICIENCY = PRIORITY OF THE ENERGY POLICY
MAIN OBJECTIVESMAIN OBJECTIVES
••ENHACEMENT OF THE EFFICIENCY OF POWER GENERATION ENHACEMENT OF THE EFFICIENCY OF POWER GENERATION -- HIGHLY HIGHLY
EFFICIENT GENERATION UNITSEFFICIENT GENERATION UNITS
••DOUBLEDOUBLE IINCREASE (AS COMPNCREASE (AS COMPAREDARED TO 2006) OF HIGHLY EFFICIENT TO 2006) OF HIGHLY EFFICIENT
COCO--GENERATION TECHNOLOGY BY 2020GENERATION TECHNOLOGY BY 2020
••LIMITATION OF THE GRID LOSS DURING TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTIONLIMITATION OF THE GRID LOSS DURING TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION
(MODERNISATION (MODERNISATION OF OF EXISTING EXISTING ONES ONES AND BUILDING NEW GRIDS INCL. SMART AND BUILDING NEW GRIDS INCL. SMART
GRIDS )GRIDS )
••INCREASE OF THE EFFICIENCY OF END INCREASE OF THE EFFICIENCY OF END –– USE OF ENERGYUSE OF ENERGY
••IMPROVEMENT OF ENERGY MANAGEMENT IMPROVEMENT OF ENERGY MANAGEMENT
MAIN INVESTMENTS IN THE POWER SECTORMAIN INVESTMENTS IN THE POWER SECTOR
NEEDS FOR ENERGY SECURITY NEEDS FOR ENERGY SECURITY – 1000 MW/ year OF NEW CAPACITY
INSTALLED IN THE POWER PLANTS …?
HARD COAL AND LIGNITE (TO 2020): HARD COAL AND LIGNITE (TO 2020): • MODERNIZATION OF THE OLD (6560 MW) AND BUILDING OF THE NEW HIGH
EFFICIENCY GENERATION UNITS (5360) –…CCS READY ?
•ELECTRICITY AND HEAT PRODUCTION IN COGENERATION
NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS •GAS – STEAM CHP UNITS (2200 MW)
NUCLEARNUCLEAR•PWR REACTOR (4800 MW)
RENEWABLE RENEWABLE •WIND – 4000 – 6000 WIND POWER UNITS
HARD COAL AND LIGNITE – ANALYSED TECHNOLOGIESaccording to unitary discounted electricity generation costs
Euro / MWh – without CO2 emission payment
•SUPERCRITICAL STEAM PC UNIT – LIGNITE 46,4•SUPERCRITICAL STEAM CFBC – HARD COAL 47,6*•SUPERCRITICAL STEAM PC UNIT – HARD COAL 53,6 •GAS-STEAM CHP – 3 PRSSURE HEAT RECOVERY STAM GENERATOR (HRSG) -NATURAL GAS 62,2•GAS-STEAM CHP – 2 PRESSURE HRSG – NATURAL GAS 67,1•GAS-STEAM UNIT – NATURAL GAS 70,7•STEAM CHP – BIOMASS (medium scale) 80,5•NUCLEAR POWER UNIT – PWR – REACTOR 85,4**
With 40 Euro / t CO2 payment*UNITARY ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS 73,2 – 86
With 60 Euro / t CO2 payment**UNITARY ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS 85,4 – 101,3
CAPACITY OF UNIT CAPACITY OF UNIT 460 MWe
ELECTRICITY GENERATION EFFICIENCY ELECTRICITY GENERATION EFFICIENCY 45 %
HARD COAL HARD COAL –– SUPERCRITICAL CIRCULATING FBCSUPERCRITICAL CIRCULATING FBC, with additional system of energy recovery from exhaust gases
CAPACITY OF UNIT 858 MWELECTRICITY GENERATION EFFICIENCY 42 %LIGNITE – SUPERCRITICAL PC – CCS READY
REMARKS:Capital costs of unit 1,5 bln EuroCapital costs of CCS READY 0,625 bln EuroNet efficiency with CCS < 35 %
FURTHER INVESTMENTS – IN THE PREPARATION
CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS ……FULFILMENT OF REQUIREMENTS OF THE EFULFILMENT OF REQUIREMENTS OF THE E––C PACKC PACKAGEAGE
ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL ASPECTSECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL ASPECTS
1.1.INVEST OR PAY INVEST OR PAY -- TOTAL COSTS OF INVESTMENTTOTAL COSTS OF INVESTMENT
ENERGY ELECTRIC SECTOR ENERGY ELECTRIC SECTOR –– 100 bln Euro100 bln Euro
••Modernization of existing and construction of new power plants Modernization of existing and construction of new power plants
31,9 bln Euro31,9 bln Euro
••Renewable Renewable -- 33 bln Euro33 bln Euro
••Transmission and distribution of electricity Transmission and distribution of electricity –– 24,1 bln Euro24,1 bln Euro
••Efficiency improvement Efficiency improvement -- 11 bln Euro11 bln Euro
CENTRAL HEATING SECTOR, GAS SECTOR AND TRANSPORTCENTRAL HEATING SECTOR, GAS SECTOR AND TRANSPORT
320 bln Euro320 bln Euro
COST COST -- TAXATION OF CO2 EMISSION:TAXATION OF CO2 EMISSION:
3 756 mln Euro in 2013 3 756 mln Euro in 2013 -- 7 911 mln Euro in 20207 911 mln Euro in 2020
CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS ……
2. 2. MORE THAN AMORE THAN A DOUBLE RISE IN PRICES OF THE ELECTRICAL DOUBLE RISE IN PRICES OF THE ELECTRICAL
ENERGY AND CENTRAL HEATINGENERGY AND CENTRAL HEATING
3. SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OF PARTICIPATION OF THE COSTS OF 3. SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OF PARTICIPATION OF THE COSTS OF
ENERGY IN THE HOUSEHOLDS BUDGETS ENERGY IN THE HOUSEHOLDS BUDGETS -- TO 18 %TO 18 %
4. DECREASE OF COMPETITIVENESS AND POSSIBILITY OF 4. DECREASE OF COMPETITIVENESS AND POSSIBILITY OF „„CARBON CARBON
LEAKAGELEAKAGE””
5. SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OF THE ENERGY DEPENDENCY5. SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OF THE ENERGY DEPENDENCY
6. LOSS OF THE GDP: for 154 bln PLN / year (7,5 %) to 20206. LOSS OF THE GDP: for 154 bln PLN / year (7,5 %) to 2020
and for 503 bln PLN / year to 2030 and for 503 bln PLN / year to 2030
7. REAL THREAT OF BLACK OUT7. REAL THREAT OF BLACK OUT
CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS ……
ECOLOGICAL EFFECT TO 2030ECOLOGICAL EFFECT TO 2030
••REDUCTION OF CO2 EMISSION FOR REDUCTION OF CO2 EMISSION FOR
60 60 -- 70 MLN TON / YEAR 70 MLN TON / YEAR
MAINTENANCE OF THE ACTUAL LEVEL OF EMISSIONMAINTENANCE OF THE ACTUAL LEVEL OF EMISSION
= equivalent of 30 mln ton of the hard coal= equivalent of 30 mln ton of the hard coal
CONSUMPTION OF THE COAL IN CHINESE POWER CONSUMPTION OF THE COAL IN CHINESE POWER
STATIONSSTATIONS
4 4 –– 5 mln ton / day5 mln ton / day
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
