Energy Technology Perspectives · 2020. 9. 1. · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE...

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Energy Technology PerspectivesEnergy Technology PerspectivesPast Trends and Future OutlookPast Trends and Future Outlook

Fridtjof UnanderInternational Energy Agency


Looking BackLooking Back

Energy Use and COEnergy Use and CO22 Emissions in IEA Emissions in IEA Countries the Last Three DecadesCountries the Last Three Decades


OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES

OilCrises &Climate

Challenges

IEA COIEA CO22 Emissions 1973 Emissions 1973 -- 20012001

Recent trends show steady increase

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

in 1

990

= 10

0%

0.1%/year

1.1%/year


OilCrises &Climate

Challenges

IEA COIEA CO22 Emissions per GDPEmissions per GDP1973 1973 -- 20012001

Rate of decline has slowed since 1990

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

CO

2/G

DP

(kg

CO

2/U

SD) -2.6 %/year

-1.2 %/year


OilCrises &Climate

Challenges

IEAIEA--11 CO11 CO22 Emissions Emissions Technology Frozen at 1973Technology Frozen at 1973--levellevel


OilCrises &Climate

Challenges

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

3,0%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Aver

age

Annu

al %

Gro

wth

Hypothetical CO2 Emissions@ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency

Without changes in fuel mix and energy efficiency emissions would have increased 2.2-2.5%/year

IEAIEA--11 CO11 CO22 Emissions Emissions Impact of Changes in Fuel MixImpact of Changes in Fuel Mix


OilCrises &Climate

Challenges

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

3,0%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Aver

age

Annu

al %

Gro

wth

Less carbon Less carbon in fuel mixin fuel mix


Changes in supply and end-use fuel mix moderated growth in emissions by 0.5%/year

IEAIEA--11 CO11 CO22 Emissions Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy SavingsImpact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings

Slowing energy savings rates primary reason for accelerated growth in emissions after 1990


OilCrises &Climate

Challenges

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

3,0%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Aver

age

Annu

al %

Gro

wth

Less carbon Less carbon in fuel mixin fuel mix

Energy Energy SavingsSavings

ActualActualEmissionsEmissions


Energy Savings:Energy Savings:The Most Important FuelThe Most Important Fuel

Without energy savings achieved since 1973 energy demand in 1998 would have been 50% higher

Actual energy use

Additional energy use without

savings

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997

exaj

oule

s

50%


OilCrises &Climate

Challenges

Hypothetical energy use, without savings


Future Outlook: Future Outlook:

Energy Technology PerspectivesEnergy Technology PerspectivesScenarios and Strategies to 2050Scenarios and Strategies to 2050


Energy Technology Perspectives Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP)(ETP)

Investigating the role energy technologies can play in long-term energy markets Contributes to the IEA response to the G8 Plan of Action (“Advising on scenario strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive energy future”)



Global CO2 Emissions in the WEO 2005 Reference & Alternative Scenarios

CO2 emissions are 16% less in the AS in 2030 but still up more than 50% from 1990-levels

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

f CO

2

Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

f CO

2

Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario

16%


More is Needed….More is Needed….Global Energy Technology Perspectives will look further and investigate how technologies can help changing the energy future Covers both demand side;

transportbuildingsindustry

and supply side;renewablesCarbon Capture and Storagenuclearhydrogen



ETP 2006 FocusETP 2006 FocusStatus and perspectives for key energy technologies in different sectorsGlobal scenario analysis to illustrate how technologies can make a difference out to 2050Technology Strategies:

How much can different technologies deliver?By when can they deliver? What barriers have to be overcome to make them deliver both in the short term and over the next 3-5 decades? Pathways to overcome barriers


Outline of BookOutline of BookPart I Potential for Energy Technology to Impact

the Global Energy Economy to 20501.Overview2.Scenarios to 2050: Energy Demand, Supply and CO2

Emissions3.Technology Strategies for a Clean, Clever and

Competitive Energy FuturePart II Energy Technology Status and Outlook

4. Electricity Generation Technologies5. Building and Appliance Technologies6. Industry Technologies7. Road Transport Technologies and Fuels



Scenario AnalysisScenario AnalysisScenarios analysed:

Baseline, building on WEO Reference ScenarioAccelerated Technology Scenarios (ACT)

Analytical frameworkETO’s ETP model (global multi-region energy technology model based on cost optimization)Supplemented with new improved versions of demand side models developed in collaboration with EAD/LTO for WEO Technology data collected and assessed in previous IEA projects on CCS, hydrogen and fuel cells, renewables and efficiency


Accelerated Technology ScenariosAccelerated Technology Scenarios(ACT)(ACT)

A family of scenarios to demonstrate how technologies that are already commercial or under development can help towards a sustainable energy futureAll scenarios analyse the impact from measures to accelerated R&D, demonstration and deployment efforts as well as measures aimed at giving incentives for low-carbon technologiesThe scenarios differ in terms of assumptions for nuclear, CCS, renewables, advanced biofuels, hydrogen fuel cells and energy efficiency progress


Draft Key MessagesDraft Key MessagesWe can depart from our current unsustainable energy path By using a portfolio of current and emerging technologies the world can enhance energy security, stimulate economic growth and avert the trend of increasing CO2 emissionsThe most important technologies and practices are;

Improved energy efficiency; Clean coal with CCS; Renewables, including biofuelsNuclearEfficient use of natural gasHydrogen and fuel cells

A lot can be done even if certain key technologies would not deliver and more can be achieved if R&D efforts succeed with technologies such as hydrogen-fuel cells and advanced biofuelsUrgent action is needed to unlock the potential of existing technologies and ensure that new are developed


Example of the Analysis: Example of the Analysis: Opportunities for Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions:Opportunities for Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions:

Coal Fired Electricity Generation in ChinaCoal Fired Electricity Generation in China

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Japan 2003 Average Best AvailableTechnology

2030 WEO 2004Reference Scenario

2050 IEA ETPScenario

% o

f 200

3 C

hine

se C

oal C

onsu

mpt

ion

and

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s

Coal consumption per kWh for coal-based generation relative to 2003 level

CO2 emissions per kWh from coal based generation relative to 2003 level

CCS impact


Energy Technology PerspectivesEnergy Technology PerspectivesScenarios and Strategies to 2050Scenarios and Strategies to 2050

NEW IEA PUBLICATION May 2006


Extra slides:Extra slides:

Examples of past IEA Technology Examples of past IEA Technology Scenario WorkScenario Work

PROSPECTSFOR

CO2 CAPTUREAND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Prospects for CO2 Capture and Storage

Technology status report

CCS prospects –scenario analysis

RD&D and policy challenges

Results of model analysis: Annual emissions with 50 $/t CO2 penalty

with and without CCS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

[Gt C

O2/

yr]Base50$/t CO2 with CCS50$/t CO2 without CCS

50$/t CO2 : 2050 emissions would be 25% higher in absence of CCS

+25%

PROSPECTSFOR

CO2 CAPTUREAND

STORAGE

Electricity production from power plants fitted with CCS, by region

50$/t CO2

PROSPECTSFOR

CO2 CAPTUREAND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios


Prospects for H2 and Fuel Cells

An analysis of H2/FC potential using the IEA ETP model (scenarios

to 2050)

Published December 2005


H2/FC vehicles in transport if ...

Decisive policies for reducing emissions and oil use

Substantial advances in fuel cells, H2 on-board storage, H2 distribution systems, CO2 capture & storage

Hydrogen cost can be reduced 3-10 time and fuel cell cost can be reduced 10-50 time

Under these conditions …H2/FC would enter the market in 2020-2025 and power up to 30% of vehicles by 2050 (700 mill cars), using less than 3% global energy, saving 13% oil import

Along with other emerging technologies, H2/FC could help halve global CO2 emissions by 2050


With less favorable conditions …

(if no decisive policy to curb emissions, or insufficient cost reduction and technology advance … )

H2/FC vehicles are unlikely to reach the critical mass needed for market uptake

and

other technologies (synfuels, biofuels) may gain market share.


Market Scenarios

A - Weak CO2 policy and tech. developmentB - Strong CO2 policy in Kyoto countries and tech. developmentC - Strong CO2 policy in Kyoto countries and tech. lag D - Strong CO2 policy world wide and tech. development

GLOBAL H2 USE

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

(EJ/y)

H2 FC VEHICLES SHARE

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

(%) D

C

B

A

D

C

BA

Up to 30% H2 fuel cell vehicles by 2050

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Energy Technology Perspectives · 2020. 9. 1. · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE...

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