Enrollment Plans and Demographic Update

Nate JohnsonExecutive Director, Planning and Analysis

March 27, 2008

Enrollment Plans: Balancing Capacity and Demand

2

• Population projections for Florida have been revised downward

• Demand for SUS enrollment will continue to grow, but not as fast

• The impact of changing race/ethnic mix in Florida is uncertain

• Funded capacity is the limiting constraint on growth

Population Projections Have Been Revised Downward Over the Last

18 Months

3

18.719.1

22.5

20.7

18.9

21.6

20.0

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

Million

s

Oct. 2006 Oct. 2007 Feb. 2008

Impact on Enrollment Demand

4

• ~ 3.8% lower growth than originally predicted for 2012

• ~ 4.4% lower growth by 2017

Moderate Growth Still Likely in Key Feeder Populations

5

Projected Growth in Key Populations

90%

100%

110%

120%New BrightFutures Students

Public HSGraduates

Lower (18-19)

Upper (20-24)

Beg Grad (20-34)

Adv Grad (25-44)

School District Enrollments Suggest Varying Impacts by

Region

6

Shrinking K-12 enrollments, forecasts down: Dade, Broward, Orange, Palm Beach, Duval, Pinellas, Seminole, Volusia, Collier, Escambia

Still steady or growing K-12 but not as fast as forecast: Hillsborough, Lee, Pasco, Osceola, Sarasota, Manatee, Lake

Steady or growing K-12, forecasts steady or up: Polk, St. Lucie, Many Rural/Suburban N. Florida Counties

Projected Enrollment Based on Revised Population Projections

7

2007 2012 2027

Lower 94,000

96,000

110,00

0

Upper

139,00

0

149,00

0

164,00

0

Beginning Grad 43,000

46,000

52,000

Advanced Grad 12,000

13,000

15,000

Unclassified 13,000

14,000

16,000

Total

301,00

0

317,00

0

357,00

0

Some Higher Education Analysts Suggest Race/Ethnicity Will Have

Major Impact

8

Ratios of 2007 SUS Enrollment to 2007 Florida Black/Hispanic Population

Total Black HispanicLower Division Students per

1000 18-19 Year Olds

196

149 169 Upper Division Students per

1000 20-24 Year Olds

116

73 92 Beginning Grad Students

Per 1000 20-34 Year Olds

12

7 6

Advanced Grad Students Per 1000 25-44 Year Olds

3

1 1

Unclassified Students per 1000 20-44 Year Olds

2

1 2

Projected SUS Enrollment Based on Current Participation Rates

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260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

340,000

360,000

380,000

Age Only 301,000 317,000 357,000

Age andRace/Ethnicity

301,000 313,000 343,000

2007 2012 2027

Demographics Alone May Not Determine Growth Rates

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237,000 220,000

301,000

What Would2007 Enrollmentbe at 1990 Age

GroupParticipation

Rates?

What Would2007 Enrollment

be at 1990ParticipationRates by AgeGroup and

Race/Ethnicity?

Actual Fall 2007Enrollment

Other Factors Could Drive Demand Higher

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• Improvements in K-14 pipeline

• Increasing proportion of HS graduates with Bright Futures

• Weak economy (student demand for graduate and professional programs)

• Strong economy (need for highly educated population)

• Improvements in retention rates– 2/3 of enrollments are retained students– 1/3 are new each year

Funded Capacity is the Limiting Constraint

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• Assuming . . .

– 0% state funds increases

– 3% inflation

– 7% tuition increases

• Enrollment would have to decline 1% annually to maintain constant dollar funding per student

Amended Enrollment Plan for 2008-09

13

• Assumes no funding available for growth in the short term

• Universities expected to manage enrollments based on that assumption

• Can be revisited as situation warrants

• Long-term approach to growth funding to be recommended as part of appropriate and predictable funding