Housing and School
Enrollment In New Hampshire:
A Decade of Dramatic Change
Power Point Presentation
June 2012
Prepared For: New Hampshire Housing Finance Authority
Prepared By: Applied Economic Research
Laconia, New Hampshire
6/12/2012
1
Housing and School Enrollment In New Hampshire:
A Decade of Dramatic ChangeJune 2012
Prepared For: NH Housing Finance Authority
Applied Economic ResearchLaconia, New Hampshire
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 1
Study Purpose and Scope
• Purpose: • Research New Hampshire growth and demographic trends
• Examine their implications for housing supply and demand
• Research impact on local governments, especially school districts
• How do these trends influence school enrollment now and over the next decade?– Prior study well received, but data is 10 years old
– Will recent trends continue into the future>
• Scope of Work• Review Recent New England Literature.
• Analyze Demographic and Enrollment Trends.
• Case Studies.
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Demographic Trends
In a Nutshell• Demographic trends point to slower NH growth and shifts in housing
occupancy that are tilted away from stable/growing school enrollment.
– Pertinent underlying factors include:• Slower Growth. New Hampshire’s total population is growing at only half the prior
rates and, therefore, NH is needing fewer new housing units than in past decades.
• Sizable Vacancies. In 2010 almost 100,000 NH housing units were vacant, including
over 30,000 year‐round and 65,000 second homes. • Ageing Demographics. All of the state’s household growth 2000‐2010 was among
households headed by someone over age 55. Nearly half of the state’s household heads are over age 55, generating few school age children—all of the state’s population growth in the last decade was over age 55. Population under age 20 declined in the past decade.
• Shifting Household Composition. Two‐thirds of the state’s occupied housing units in 2010 had no one under age 18 living in them. Only 20 percent consisted of married couple families with children under age 18. Non‐family households are increasing five times faster than married couple families.
• Smaller Households Dominate. Almost two‐thirds of the state’s housing units were occupied by only 1 or 2 people in 2010 and these smaller households dominated the state’s growth between 2000 and 2010.
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Nutshell 2: Significant Enrollment Impact
• NH public school enrollment is falling in the face of slower population growth and (especially) boomers’ children completing school:
– Overall enrollment dropped by 11,000 between 2000 and 2010, despite a gain of 44,000 occupied housing units.
– Occupied NH housing units generated an average of only 0.37 students in 2010.
– Had enrollment per occupied unit stayed constant, enrollment would have grown by about 30,000.
– Some of the dramatic demographic impacts on enrollment were masked by policy changes including mandated kindergarten and raising the minimum drop out age to 18.
– Enrollment per unit is lowest and has been dropping fastest among the state’s more rural counties in the face of slower than typical population growth and
an ageing population in the face of fewer attractive employment prospects.
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 5
State’s Population Growth is Slowing
41,718
73,679
130,760
182,929188,642
126,534
80,714
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
1940‐50 1950‐60 1960‐70 1970‐80 1980‐90 1990‐00 2000‐10
NH Population Growth • State’s population growth peaked in the 1970s and 1980s.
• Growth 2000‐2010 was less than half the prior rate.
• Slower job growth overall and manufacturing job losses underlie this slower growth
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4
Housing Inventory Growth Slows
87,753
63,420
44,367
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1980‐1990 1990‐2000 2000‐2010
Change in NH Occupied Units • An obvious corollary to slower population growth is: we need fewer new housing units.
• During the past decade, inventory grew at half the pace of the go‐go 1980s and one‐third slower than in the 90s
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 7
The Big Picture
• Over 95,000 units are vacant, including 31,900 year‐round units and 63,900 second homes. These vacant units, of course, generate no school children
• 70% of the state’s occupied units are owner‐occupied, a bit higher than the national average;
Owner‐occupied Units , 368,316
Renter‐occupied Units , 150,657
Seasonal/Occaisional Use,
63,910
Vacant Year‐round, 31,871
NH Housing Units, 2010
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Younger Households in Decline
• All of the household growth 2000‐2010 was in households age 45 or over.
• Significant factor in public service requirements now and in the future—fewer schools, more nursing homes.
• Dramatic impact on housing markets
– Shifts in demand for rental versus ownership units
– Who will buy, when the boomers decide to downsize?
(40,000) (20,000) ‐ 20,000 40,000 60,000
15 to 24 years
25 to 34 years
35 to 44 years
45 to 54 years
55 to 64 years
65 years and over
Change in Households by Age of Household Head, 2000‐2010
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 9
15 to 24 years3%
25 to 34 years12%
35 to 44 years18%
45 to 54 years25%
55 to 64 years20%
65 years and over22%
Age of Household Head, 2010
Almost Half (42%) of State’s Household Heads Are Over Age 55
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All of State’s Net Population Growth 2000‐2010 Was Over Age 55, School Age Population Fell
• Ageing in place is the primary reason—boomers are staying where they are, but getting older.
• It is not clear that younger households are fleeing the state, but state may not be as attractive as other areas to Gen X and Gen Y.
(20,000) ‐ 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
Under 5
5 to 19
20 to 34
35‐54
55‐64
65+
Source: US Census
NH Population Change, 2000‐2010
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 11
NH Household Composition 2010: Less Than One‐Third of the State’s Housing Unit Include
Someone Under Age 18
• Contributing factors include:
– Ageing population
– Delayed families
– More singles
52%
29%
20%
34%
26%
31%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Married Couple Families
Families with Own ChildrenUnder Age 18
Married Couple FamiliesWith Own Children <18
Non Family Households
Persons Living Alone
Households withIndividuals Under Age 18
Share Of NH Households, 2010
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7
Traditional Households Are On The Decline: Non‐Family Households Growing Five Times Faster than Married Couple
Families
‐12%
‐6%
‐5%
3%
6%
15%
16%
Married Couple Families With Children <18
Families with Children Under Age 18
Households with Individuals Under Age 18
Married Couple Families
Family Households
Persons Living Alone
Non Family Households
Change In NH Households by Type, 2000‐10
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 13
Smaller Households Dominate—62% Have 2 or Fewer Persons
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 14
1‐person household,
133,057 , 26%
2‐person household,
188,923 , 36%
3‐person household, 85,046 , 16%
4‐person household, 70,835 , 14%
5‐person household, 27,365 , 5%
6‐person household, 9,286 , 2%
7‐or‐more‐person
household, 4,461 , 1%
NH Households, 2010
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8
Fastest Growth Is Among Smaller Households
(5,000) ‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
1‐person household
2‐person household
3‐person household
4‐person household
5‐person household
6‐person household
7‐or‐more‐personhousehold
Change in Households, 2000‐2010 • Ageing of the population is a significant contributor;
• Younger households delaying child rearing is another element;
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 15
Local Impact: The Demographics of Housing and School Enrollment
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Four Distinct US Demographic‐Driven National Enrollment Phases
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 17
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
US Total Enrollment Trends K‐12
BoomersGraduate
Boomers' Kids Are EnrolledIn School
Boomers'KidsGraduate
BoomersAre Enrolled In School
State’s Enrollment Falling, Despite 6% Population Growth Overall
• Demonstrates that demographic forces are more powerful than growth—otherwise enrollment would be increasing along with total population.
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
200,000
210,000
220,000
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Total NH Enrollment Public+Private Grades 1‐12
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10
2000‐2010:Enrollment per Occupied Unit Falls to 0.37 Students
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 19
NH Public School Enrollment Trends
2000 2005 2010 Number PercentTotal School Enrollment 205,300 205,800 194,000 -11,300 -5.5%
Pre-K 11,500 13,100 15,100 3,600 31.3%Grades 1-12 193,800 192,700 178,900 -14,900 -7.7%Occupied Housing Units 474,600 510,300 519,000 44,400 0
Enrollment per Occupied UnitTotal School Enrollment 0.43 0.40 0.37
Pre-K 0.02 0.03 0.03Grades 1-12 0.41 0.38 0.34
Source NH Dept. Of Education (enrollmnent) Census (Occupied Units 2000, 2010, NHHFA (Occupied Units 2005), AEREnrollments include students in Public District Schools, Public Academies, Joint Maintenance Agreement and Public Charter Schools.
Change 2000-2010
Pattern is Consistent: Most Communities Added Units But Most Also Experienced Enrollment Declines
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 20Source: NH Public Policy
6/12/2012
11
Enrollment Decline is Not Unique to NH
• Two factors at play
– Slower growing states (Vermont, Maine, Rhode Island) show steepest decline.
– States with more immigration (Massachusetts, Connecticut) show more modest declines.
‐8%
‐6%
‐5%
‐4%
‐1%
2%
‐10%
‐8%
‐6%
‐4%
‐2%
0%
2%
Public School Enrollment Trends, 2000‐2007
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 21
Southern, Urban NH Has Higher Enrollment per Unit
• They have experienced higher overall population growth;
• They have experienced higher immigration of younger foreign‐born households.
0.37
0.29 0.32 0.31
0.32
0.41
0.35
0.41
0.35
0.31
‐
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
Public Enrollment per Occupied Unit, 2010
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 22
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12
Northern Counties Show Steepest Enrollment Decline
• State’s northern counties are ageing faster than the, southern‐urban settings;
• State’s northern counties are growing slower, overall, including school age population.
‐21%
‐16%
‐13%‐11%‐11%
‐7%‐5%‐5%
‐3%‐2%‐2%
‐25%
‐20%
‐15%
‐10%
‐5%
0%
Coos
Cheshire
Carroll
Sullivan
Grafton
Merrim
ack
Belknap NH
Straffford
Rockingh
am
Hillsborough
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 23
Enrollment By Unit Type‐‐Overall 0.4 Students per Unit
• Census’s American Community Survey indicates single family units generate fewer than .5 students on average.
• Structures with more units (typically garden complexes) generate only .17 students per unit.
0.48
0.33 0.32
0.17
0.26
0.40
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
SingleFamily
Detached
SingleFamily
Attached
Two toFour UnitBuilding
Five orMore UnitBuilding
MobileHome
AllStructureTypes
Source: American Community Survey, 2005‐09 data
NH Public School Enrollment Per Unit By Unit Type, 2009
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Large New Units=Slightly Higher Enrollment
• Number of bedrooms is the principal variable structuring enrollment per unit.
• Census American Community Survey confirms this is the case, especially among newer, larger units.
• Bedrooms are more critical than when unit was built, per se.
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1 Bedroom orLess
2 Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms 4 or MoreBedrooms
Total
Source: US Census, American Community Survey
Public School Enrollment Per Unit, New Vs. Older Units, 2009
Units Built 1999 and Earlier Units Built 2000 and Later
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 25
Case Study Data For New Units Is Consistent with Census Based Demographic Data
• Case study communities included just over 1,600 new units (2005‐11) housing just under 800 students.
• Overall, a new housing unit generates less than one‐half (.48) student.
0.17
0.64
0.26
0.48
‐
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
Total MultiFamily
Total SingleFamily
ManufacturedHousing**
Total All UnitTypes
Includes Belmont, Milford, Rochester and Windham
Students Per New Unit In Case Study Communities
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 26
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Case Study New Unit Enrollment Varies Sharply with Bedroom Count
• New four bedroom single family units generate an average of just under one student per unit.
• New three bedroom single family units generate fewer than one‐half students per units.
• Two bedroom units generate less than .1 students per units
0.09
0.41
0.99
0.64
‐
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2 Bedroom orless
3 Bedroom 4+bedrooms Total SingleFamily
Includes Belmont, Milford, Rochester and Windham
Students Per Unit In Case Study Communities' New Single Family
Units
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 27
First Grade Enrollment Has Fallen Sharply, But May Be Leveling Off
• First grade enrollment structures future total enrollment as those students pass through grade levels.
• Some stability emerged this year, but one year is not the whole story.
• This factor bears watching.
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
First Grade Enrollment in NH
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Births In Steep Drop—Older Marriages, Fewer Children
• In the absence of in‐migration, this dramatic decline in births portends future enrollment declines;
• Reflect:– Slower overall population
growth;
– Fewer women in childbearing ages
– Delayed marriage and childbearing among younger households 12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
NH Births
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 29
Enrollment Declines Likely to Continue
• As fewer births and smaller entering class sizes continue to be a factor, enrollment will continue to decline.
• Would take a dramatic increase in migration into the state to reverse this trend
175000
185000
195000
205000
215000
225000
235000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Enrollment Trends and Projections Grades k‐12, Public and Private
Enrollment
Trend
Grade Progression
5 year Average
3 Year Weighted
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Declines Continue Even With Higher Migration
• If migration is increased by 400 basis points (add 4% to most likely scenario) enrollment only reaches 2005 level;
• If migration slows further (200 basis points) enrollment losses deepen
NHHFA Enrollment Analysis 31
‐
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
MigrationDecline
Most Likely
MigrationIncrease
