Environmental SecurityEnvironmental Security

One Form of Environmental InsecurityOne Form of Environmental Insecurity

““The Environment as Geopolitical Threat”The Environment as Geopolitical Threat”Chapter 2 of Chapter 2 of Environmental SecurityEnvironmental Security

Simon Dalby:Simon Dalby:

Let’s examine the use of specific geopolitical Let’s examine the use of specific geopolitical assumptions to frame the demographic and assumptions to frame the demographic and related environmental dimensions of post-Cold related environmental dimensions of post-Cold War security thinking.War security thinking.

Environmental DegradationEnvironmental Degradation

Environmental MarginalizationEnvironmental Marginalization

““The Coming Anarchy” (1994)The Coming Anarchy” (1994)

The Atlantic MonthlyThe Atlantic Monthly: Nations will break up : Nations will break up

under the tidal flow of refugees from under the tidal flow of refugees from

environmental and social disaster. As bordersenvironmental and social disaster. As borders

crumble, another type of boundary is crumble, another type of boundary is

erected—a wall of disease. Wars are foughterected—a wall of disease. Wars are fought

over scarce resources, especially water, andover scarce resources, especially water, and

war itself becomes continuous with crime, aswar itself becomes continuous with crime, as

armed bands of stateless marauders clash witharmed bands of stateless marauders clash with

Robert KaplanRobert Kaplan the private security forces of the elites. A the private security forces of the elites. A

preview of the first decades of the 21preview of the first decades of the 21stst century. century.

Kaplan 1994 - Coming AnarchyKaplan 1994 - Coming Anarchy

Kaplan’s ThemesKaplan’s Themes

Neo-Malthusianism: Human population growth + scarcity of Neo-Malthusianism: Human population growth + scarcity of resources + collapse of Cold War bifurcation of power + resources + collapse of Cold War bifurcation of power + environmental degradation environmental degradation → → fascist-tending mini-states, fascist-tending mini-states, totalitarianism, and road warrior cultures.totalitarianism, and road warrior cultures.

Bifurcated world:Bifurcated world:1. Impoverished South: excessive environmental degradation and 1. Impoverished South: excessive environmental degradation and

division along cultural and tribal fractures.division along cultural and tribal fractures.2. Affluent North: must practice a politics of containment and 2. Affluent North: must practice a politics of containment and

exclusion to protect itself. exclusion to protect itself.

The environment itself (“nature unchecked”) is a hostile power and The environment itself (“nature unchecked”) is a hostile power and is is the the national security issue of the 21national security issue of the 21stst century. century.

Problems with Kaplan’s AnalysisProblems with Kaplan’s Analysis

Doesn’t really explain the causal mechanism of how the Doesn’t really explain the causal mechanism of how the environment itself becomes a hostile power.environment itself becomes a hostile power.

In terms of political economy, his analysis obscures or ignores:In terms of political economy, his analysis obscures or ignores:1. Legacies of colonialism.1. Legacies of colonialism.2. Role of the international food economy in shaping agricultural 2. Role of the international food economy in shaping agricultural

infrastructures and available levels of nutrition.infrastructures and available levels of nutrition.3. Impacts of debt crises and structural adjustment policies.3. Impacts of debt crises and structural adjustment policies.4. Patterns of subsistence production and urbanization.4. Patterns of subsistence production and urbanization.5. Reasons for the migrations of peoples.5. Reasons for the migrations of peoples.6. How affluence in the global North contributes to poverty and 6. How affluence in the global North contributes to poverty and environmental degradation in the global South.environmental degradation in the global South.

Gives further reasons to justify more Northern hegemony.Gives further reasons to justify more Northern hegemony. Advocates zoning the planet and abandoning large parts of it.Advocates zoning the planet and abandoning large parts of it. Taken too seriously by the United States.Taken too seriously by the United States.

Ecology of War and PeaceEcology of War and PeaceFour Historical MomentsFour Historical Moments

First Moment: 1950s-1960sFirst Moment: 1950s-1960s

Nuclear winter effects of a thermonuclear war Nuclear winter effects of a thermonuclear war between the U.S.S.R. and the U.S. between the U.S.S.R. and the U.S.

Ecology of War and PeaceEcology of War and PeaceSecond Moment: 1960s-1970sSecond Moment: 1960s-1970s

Widespread use of defoliant Agent Orange by Widespread use of defoliant Agent Orange by the U.S. in the Second Indochina War.the U.S. in the Second Indochina War.

Ecology of War and Peace:Ecology of War and Peace:Third Moment: 1980s-1990sThird Moment: 1980s-1990s

Ecocide effects of armed conflicts against Ecocide effects of armed conflicts against peoples, waterscapes, and landscapes in peoples, waterscapes, and landscapes in

Central America.Central America.

Ecology of War and PeaceEcology of War and PeaceFourth Moment: 1991Fourth Moment: 1991

Oil fires and oil pollution of Oil fires and oil pollution of

the Persian Gulf War.the Persian Gulf War.

Ecology of War and PeaceEcology of War and PeaceFifth Moment: 1991-2007Fifth Moment: 1991-2007

Use of depleted uranium in Iraq, Kuwait, and the Use of depleted uranium in Iraq, Kuwait, and the former Yugoslavia.former Yugoslavia.

Negative Environmental Impacts of Negative Environmental Impacts of Conventional Wars and Military ActivitiesConventional Wars and Military Activities

1. Formation of craters and the compaction, erosion, and contamination 1. Formation of craters and the compaction, erosion, and contamination

of soils by bombs, missiles, and military vehicles and their of soils by bombs, missiles, and military vehicles and their hazardous and toxic residues.hazardous and toxic residues.

2. Other forms of land pollution ranging from latrines and garbage 2. Other forms of land pollution ranging from latrines and garbage dumps to landmines and unexploded ordnance.dumps to landmines and unexploded ordnance.

3. Defoliation, deforestation, and land degradation.3. Defoliation, deforestation, and land degradation.4. Contamination of surface waters and groundwater.4. Contamination of surface waters and groundwater.5. Atmospheric emissions and resulting air pollution from military 5. Atmospheric emissions and resulting air pollution from military

equipment and vehicles.equipment and vehicles.6. Direct and collateral killing of animals and plants and loss of habitat.6. Direct and collateral killing of animals and plants and loss of habitat.7. Degradation and destruction of protected areas and biodiversity.7. Degradation and destruction of protected areas and biodiversity.8. Noise pollution of 140 decibels or more from weapons and low-8. Noise pollution of 140 decibels or more from weapons and low-

flying aircraft that can lead to long-term hearing impairment in flying aircraft that can lead to long-term hearing impairment in people and other animals.people and other animals.

Further Direct Environmental Harms Further Direct Environmental Harms for Peoplefor People

1. Damage and destruction of water storage and 1. Damage and destruction of water storage and distribution systems, waste and wastewater treatment distribution systems, waste and wastewater treatment facilities, and sewer systems.facilities, and sewer systems.

2. Damage and destruction of croplands, pasturage, and 2. Damage and destruction of croplands, pasturage, and marine fisheries, and the resulting loss of agricultural marine fisheries, and the resulting loss of agricultural products and other foodstuffs.products and other foodstuffs.

3. Damage and destruction of other human structures 3. Damage and destruction of other human structures ranging from buildings to power grid systems and entire ranging from buildings to power grid systems and entire towns.towns.

And Still More Indirect Environmental And Still More Indirect Environmental Impacts and Harms for PeopleImpacts and Harms for People

1. Disruption or destruction of the social and economic 1. Disruption or destruction of the social and economic infrastructures of human communities.infrastructures of human communities.

2. Dislocation of human populations that result in displaced 2. Dislocation of human populations that result in displaced peoples and refugees.peoples and refugees.

3. Creation of new opportunities for pathogenic microbes 3. Creation of new opportunities for pathogenic microbes and the spread of infectious diseases.and the spread of infectious diseases.

4. Further negative impacts as demographic and economic 4. Further negative impacts as demographic and economic frontiers expand into remaining natural areas and fragile frontiers expand into remaining natural areas and fragile land and waterscapes after conflicts end.land and waterscapes after conflicts end.

International Law:International Law:First Environment-Specific TreatyFirst Environment-Specific Treaty

ENMOD ConventionENMOD Convention

United Nations Convention on the Prohibition of United Nations Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques of 1976Environmental Modification Techniques of 1976

Article I: Prohibits using environmental modification Article I: Prohibits using environmental modification techniques that have widespread, long-lasting, or techniques that have widespread, long-lasting, or severe effects that destroy, damage, or injure other severe effects that destroy, damage, or injure other state parties.state parties.

Article II: Environmental modification is the Article II: Environmental modification is the deliberate manipulation of natural processes such deliberate manipulation of natural processes such that they are used as weapons of war.that they are used as weapons of war.

International Law:International Law:Second Environment-Specific TreatySecond Environment-Specific Treaty

Protocol I (1977)Protocol I (1977)

Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 and relating to the Protection of Victims of International 1949 and relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed ConflictsArmed Conflicts

Article 35(3): Prohibits methods or means of warfare intended or Article 35(3): Prohibits methods or means of warfare intended or expected to cause widespread, long-term, and severe damage to expected to cause widespread, long-term, and severe damage to the natural environment.the natural environment.

Article 55(1): Adds a prohibition against damaging the natural Article 55(1): Adds a prohibition against damaging the natural environment that prejudices the health or survival of human environment that prejudices the health or survival of human populations.populations.

Article 55(2): Prohibits reprisal attacks against the natural Article 55(2): Prohibits reprisal attacks against the natural environment.environment.

International Law:International Law:

Third Environment-Specific TreatyThird Environment-Specific Treaty

International Criminal CourtInternational Criminal CourtRome Statute of the International Criminal Court, Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, July 17, 1998July 17, 1998

Article 8.2(b)(iv): Causing widespread, long-term, and Article 8.2(b)(iv): Causing widespread, long-term, and severe damage to the natural environment is defined severe damage to the natural environment is defined as a war crime.as a war crime.

International Law:International Law:Practical ProblemsPractical Problems

1. Environment-specific treaties seem to have little real 1. Environment-specific treaties seem to have little real bite—no international treaty has ever been bite—no international treaty has ever been actually actually invoked to protect the environment.invoked to protect the environment.

2. There is much scientific and economic uncertainty 2. There is much scientific and economic uncertainty about enforcement and punishment of offenders.about enforcement and punishment of offenders.

3. International treaties govern only interstate, not 3. International treaties govern only interstate, not intrastate, conflicts.intrastate, conflicts.

4. International treaties govern only the actions of 4. International treaties govern only the actions of signatory parties.signatory parties.

International Law:International Law:Conceptual ProblemsConceptual Problems

1. Defining “widespread, long-lasting, and 1. Defining “widespread, long-lasting, and severe severe damage.”damage.”

2. Defining “civilian property.”2. Defining “civilian property.”

3. Military necessity loophole.3. Military necessity loophole.

““Environment, Conflict, and Violence”Environment, Conflict, and Violence”Chapter 3 of Chapter 3 of Environmental SecurityEnvironmental Security

Simon Dalby:Simon Dalby:

Now let’s examine some of the scholarly literature Now let’s examine some of the scholarly literature about the links between environmental about the links between environmental degradation and violence or, more broadly, degradation and violence or, more broadly, environmental security.environmental security.

Historical Development Moments Historical Development Moments in the Field of Environmental Security in the Field of Environmental Security

1.1. Our Common FutureOur Common Future (1987): World Commission on Environment and (1987): World Commission on Environment and Development claims that a cause and effect of political tension and military Development claims that a cause and effect of political tension and military conflict is environmental stress.conflict is environmental stress.

2.2. End of the Cold War (late 1980s to early 1990s): International relations End of the Cold War (late 1980s to early 1990s): International relations and political science scholars begin to rethink the relationship between the and political science scholars begin to rethink the relationship between the environment and national security. environment and national security.

3.3. Establishment of the Field of Environmental Security (early to mid 1990s): Establishment of the Field of Environmental Security (early to mid 1990s): Different schools of thought emerge that attempt to explain plausible Different schools of thought emerge that attempt to explain plausible linkages between environmental change and conflict.linkages between environmental change and conflict.

4.4. Human Security Discourse (mid to late 1990s): Many scholars and NGOs Human Security Discourse (mid to late 1990s): Many scholars and NGOs begin to rethink national security.begin to rethink national security.

5.5. Political Ecology/Economy (mid to late 1990s): Environmental security Political Ecology/Economy (mid to late 1990s): Environmental security discourse becomes situated within larger critiques that seek to explain discourse becomes situated within larger critiques that seek to explain environmental change, environmental access, political and economic environmental change, environmental access, political and economic exclusion, and social upheavals.exclusion, and social upheavals.

6.6. And Sustainability for All? (2007): You study environmental security! And Sustainability for All? (2007): You study environmental security!

The Environmental Conflict ThesisThe Environmental Conflict Thesis

Increasing scarcities produced through resource enclosure or Increasing scarcities produced through resource enclosure or appropriation by state authorities, private firms, or social appropriation by state authorities, private firms, or social elites accelerate conflict between groups (gender, class, or elites accelerate conflict between groups (gender, class, or ethnicity). Similarly, environmental problems become ethnicity). Similarly, environmental problems become “politicized” when local groups (gender, class, or ethnicity) “politicized” when local groups (gender, class, or ethnicity) secure control of collective resources at the expense of secure control of collective resources at the expense of others by leveraging management interventions by others by leveraging management interventions by development authorities, state agents, or private firms. So development authorities, state agents, or private firms. So too, existing and long-term conflicts within and between too, existing and long-term conflicts within and between communities are “ecologized” by changes in conservation communities are “ecologized” by changes in conservation or resource development policy.or resource development policy.

((Political EcologyPolitical Ecology by Paul Robbins, p. by Paul Robbins, p. 173) 173)

The Project on Environment, Population, The Project on Environment, Population, and Security (Toronto Group)and Security (Toronto Group)

lled by Thomas Homer-Dixoned by Thomas Homer-Dixon

Thesis: Scarcity of renewable resources can Thesis: Scarcity of renewable resources can contribute to civil violence.contribute to civil violence.

Toronto Group: 5 categories of dispute that could Toronto Group: 5 categories of dispute that could plausibly be caused by environmental scarcityplausibly be caused by environmental scarcity

Start by assuming environmental (resource) scarcity. Do the following Start by assuming environmental (resource) scarcity. Do the following types of disputes lead to violent conflict?types of disputes lead to violent conflict?

Site-specific concerns such as logging or pollution. (No)Site-specific concerns such as logging or pollution. (No) Ethnic clashes caused by migration and social cleavages caused Ethnic clashes caused by migration and social cleavages caused

by environmental scarcity. (Yes)by environmental scarcity. (Yes) Civil strife caused by environmental scarcity that affects economic Civil strife caused by environmental scarcity that affects economic

activity, livelihood, behavior of elites, and state responses. (Yes)activity, livelihood, behavior of elites, and state responses. (Yes) Scarcity-driven interstate wars over resources such as water. Scarcity-driven interstate wars over resources such as water.

(No)(No) Large-scale North-South conflicts related to global problems of Large-scale North-South conflicts related to global problems of

climate change, ozone depletion, biodiversity loss, and over-climate change, ozone depletion, biodiversity loss, and over-fishing. (No)fishing. (No)

Toronto Group (Homer-Dixon): Toronto Group (Homer-Dixon): Environment, Scarcity, and ViolenceEnvironment, Scarcity, and Violence

1. Scarcity of Renewable Resources.1. Scarcity of Renewable Resources.++

2. Resource Capture: when powerful groups shift the distribution of 2. Resource Capture: when powerful groups shift the distribution of resources in their favor.resources in their favor.

++3. Ecological Marginalization: when powerful groups prevent less 3. Ecological Marginalization: when powerful groups prevent less

powerful groups from accessing and using scarce resources.powerful groups from accessing and using scarce resources.++

4. Contextual Factors: physical characteristics of a given environment 4. Contextual Factors: physical characteristics of a given environment and localized human social relations and institutions.and localized human social relations and institutions.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Violent Conflicts in the Third World Violent Conflicts in the Third World

Environment and Conflicts Project Environment and Conflicts Project (ENCOP), Switzerland(ENCOP), Switzerland

led by Gled by Günther Baechlerünther Baechler

Thesis: Violence can occur in specific places Thesis: Violence can occur in specific places when groups are discriminated against in when groups are discriminated against in situations of environmental and renewable situations of environmental and renewable resource degradation.resource degradation.

ENCOP: Environmental ViolenceENCOP: Environmental Violence

Violence can occur when some combination of the Violence can occur when some combination of the following occurs:following occurs:

1.1. Group dependence on degraded resources for which Group dependence on degraded resources for which there is no substitute.there is no substitute.

2.2. Scarcity of regulatory mechanisms and poor state Scarcity of regulatory mechanisms and poor state performance.performance.

3.3. Instrumentalized use of the environment by a dominant Instrumentalized use of the environment by a dominant group, such that environmental discrimination group, such that environmental discrimination becomes an ideological issue of group identification.becomes an ideological issue of group identification.

4.4. Opportunistic alliance-building situations.Opportunistic alliance-building situations.5.5. Spillovers from historic conflicts.Spillovers from historic conflicts.

ENCOP: Environmental ConflictsENCOP: Environmental Conflicts

Environmental conflicts are also more likely:Environmental conflicts are also more likely:

1.1. When intractable poverty exists.When intractable poverty exists.2.2. When intensive environmental transformations occur.When intensive environmental transformations occur.3.3. Within particular geographical zones, especially arid Within particular geographical zones, especially arid

plains and mountainous areas.plains and mountainous areas.4.4. Between highland and lowland producers, rural and Between highland and lowland producers, rural and

urban dwellers, and rural producers and central state urban dwellers, and rural producers and central state forces.forces.

5.5. When state elites make their own sub-populations When state elites make their own sub-populations insecure and/or impose top-down development.insecure and/or impose top-down development.

6.6. During larger transitions from feudal-style and During larger transitions from feudal-style and agricultural cultures to industrialized societies.agricultural cultures to industrialized societies.

Resource Wars:Resource Wars:Michael KlareMichael Klare

Thesis: The global distribution of resources, Thesis: The global distribution of resources, particularly oil and freshwater, will play a key role particularly oil and freshwater, will play a key role in shaping the military policies of nation-states and in shaping the military policies of nation-states and other political actors in the 21other political actors in the 21stst century. century.