+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis...

Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis...

Date post: 24-Mar-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 0 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
21
Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Sept – Oct’ 2018
Transcript
Page 1: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Equity & Debt Strategy

Mid Sept – Oct’ 2018

Page 2: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Equity Market Update &

Equity MF Strategy

Page 3: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 3

Nifty 50 rose 3% with Midcap Index rising 5.5% in August

18,700

18,900

19,100

19,300

19,500

19,700

19,900

20,100

20,300

20,500

10,600

10,800

11,000

11,200

11,400

11,600

11,800

30/07 05/08 11/08 17/08 23/08 29/08 04/09 10/09

NIFTY Index Nsemcap index

Global rally in the

wake of strong US

earnings

News of US, China trade

talks fuelled expectation

RBI repo US Fed indicates

sticking to gradual rate

hikes

India’s trade deficit

soared to near 5-year

high of %18 bn

INR continues to

weaken & crude

prices rise

-9,276

-2,526

1,414 9041,372

4,858

286

-987

13,085

9,105

3,883 3,767

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18

FII DII excl MF MF

Nifty 50 rose to all-time high in August combined with recovery in Midcap 100; Sep began with sharp correction due to weak macros

MF buying slowed down leading to tepid market sentiments

Cash holdings of Top 100 Equity Mutual Funds has reduced

Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE), AMFI, NSE Infoedge, Citi ResearchAs of 11th September, 2018

cr

Net Flows to Equity Mutual Funds rose above 10k cr this month due to 3-month high inflow in Balanced Funds

cr

13,083

10,6239,639 10,085

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18

Net investment in Cash market

Note: Amount excludes Arbitrage Funds, assumes 65% equity flow from Balanced

3.70%3.50%

2.80%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18

Page 4: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 4

Export oriented and countries with high Foreign Debt have been impacted significantly; India seen as safe haven among EMs

Since 1st Apr, Emerging markets have corrected by 10%, Nifty 50 continues to remain an outlier

USD continued to strengthen in FYTD18 against all EM led by steady growth, rise in US interest rates and deteriorating macros in EM

QE Unwind program is gaining pace, Fed Balance sheet leaner by $245 bn in last 1 Year

As of 11th September 2018Source: Bloomberg, KIE

Chinese monthly exports growth not impacted significantly since US tariffs not entirely implemented

14.0%

3.4%

-9.8%

-13.1%

-4.9%-7.6%

3.0%

11.0%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Nifty 50 NiftyMidcap

MSCI EM Shanghai SouthKorea

Hongkong Germany US

89.74

61.12

77.82

78.50

92.40

55.00

65.00

75.00

85.00

95.00

105.00

Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18

India Turkey Brazil South Africa Indonesia

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

Aug 15 Feb 16 Aug 16 Feb 17 Aug 17 Feb 18 Aug 18

China Export (Seasonally adjusted)

YoY%

Base 100 on 1-April-18

In local currency terms

4,050,000

4,100,000

4,150,000

4,200,000

4,250,000

4,300,000

4,350,000

4,400,000

4,450,000

4,500,000

4,550,000

Oct 14

Dec 1

4

Fe

b 1

5

Ap

r 15

Jun

15

Au

g 1

5

Oct 15

Dec 1

5

Fe

b 1

6

Ap

r 16

Jun

16

Au

g 1

6

Oct 16

Dec 1

6

Fe

b 1

7

Ap

r 17

Jun

17

Au

g 1

7

Oct 17

Dec 1

7

Fe

b 1

8

Ap

r 18

Jun

18

Au

g 1

8

$ Mn

Page 5: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 5

Capital imports growth strong over 3 months indicating recovery in corporate investments

IIP growth remained strong in July at 6.6%

Urban consumption driven companies report strong earnings growth in Q1FY19

Rural consumption driven companies had mixed growth numbers, with consumer goods reporting good numbers

Source: KIE, NomuraYoY% growth

Capital imports highlight strong domestic economy recovery, Both Rural and Urban consumption strong

73.60%

34.20%32.10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jubiliant Nestle Asian Paints

19.50%17.30%

-0.90%-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

HUL Dabur Hero Motorcop

8.70%

34.20%31.50% 30.30%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18

6.9

5.3

4.5

3.9

6.9

6.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18

YoY%YoY%

Page 6: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 6

Earnings and Valuation

Post recent correction, Mid Caps still at a 14% premium over large caps

Q1FY2018 PAT for our universe has grown by 26.7%, Nifty PAT impacted by Bank provisioning and Tata Motors

FY19 earnings outlook relatively stable compared to FY17 and FY18 We expect 21% Nifty 50 Earnings growth for FY19 and FY20

21.7

30.1

42.2

12.8

34.3

21.6 20.9

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Auto Banking Consumers Energy Pharma Tech Nifty 50PE 2019E400.00

450.00

500.00

550.00

600.00

650.00

700.00

Apr 15Aug 15Dec 15Apr 16Aug 16Dec 16Apr 17Aug 17Dec 17Apr 18Aug 18

FY2019 FY2018 FY2017

Source: Bloomberg, KIE * Based on KIE Estimates on free float basis.As of 2nd August 2018

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

Sep 15 Mar 16 Sep 16 Mar 17 Sep 17 Mar 18 Sep 18

12m Forward PE of Mid Cap over Large Cap

Nifty Mid Cap

Nifty 50

14% Premium

43.9

22.7

5.3 3.4 7.6

-23.5-17.9

-4.6

5.7

-11.9 -7.6

11.1

-40.8

-6.4

21.1

59

-4.7

56.1

30.2

14.1 12.3

26.7

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80 Actual/Expected % YoY Growth

Page 7: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 7

Key Triggers

• Global Economic data : World economy improving

• Q1 Earnings: Several companies posted strong growth in current quarter

• Resolution of NPA: Effective addressal of NCLT lists

• Weaker Rupee: Benefit export-oriented sectors like Auto, Chemicals, IT and Pharma

• Monsoon/Rural recovery: Government focus on rural economyincluding increase of MSP could benefit rural consumption

Positive Triggers

• Trade Wars: Further tariffs imposed by US/China and strict enforcement of Iran sanctions

• Monetary Policy: Faster than expected monetary tightening in Europe and US

• Weaker Macro: Higher crude prices, weaker currency and low GST collection could lead to lower re-rating of Equity valuations

• Elections: A combined opposition can be threat to BJP in next elections

Risks

Page 8: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 8

Our View on NBFCs and HFCs Selloff on 21st September, 2018

Events - Equity• There was a significant sell-off in the financial services stocks and broader markets.• While the fall in banking stocks may be pertaining to RBI’s actions on tenure extension of the CEO of

one of the private banks, the fall in NBFC stocks may be on account of the sale of some NBFCs’ debt instruments at higher yields by an AMC.

Our stance• The selling in the broader market was largely sentiment driven with no apparent fundamental

negatives.• We have been underweight equities largely due to our view that the risk-reward was unattractive at

the prevailing valuations even considering earnings growth especially when debt yields were attractive.

• The events mentioned above do not warrant any change in our stance. We believe, broader markets saw a knee jerk reaction and prices of most stocks should stabilize once the panic subsides.

Source: AMCs, other Financial websites

Page 9: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 9

India Equities: Valuations & Strategy – Shift from Neutral to Underweight

Nifty rose 3% for the month to life time high levels on the back of agood start to the earnings seasons. However the recent rally is amidstmacro headwinds.

However Equity valuations have run up ahead of earnings and Nifty 50risk-reward is skewed towards downside, hence with the visibility of avolatile election year, we are shifting our stance from “Neutral” to“Underweight”.

Mutual Funds: As domestic liquidity continues to drive markets, weadvise new investments to be staggered in Mutual Funds via SIPs/STPs.

Recommended allocation within equity mutual funds is as under:

• 50% Large Cap allocation (Prefer Large Cap stocks over Mid capsince Mid cap valuations are still above historical levels)

• 50% Multi Cap allocation (such funds currently have a biastoward large cap)

• For investors who want equity exposure but have low appetitefor volatility, they can take equity exposure through AggressiveHybrid Funds. Such funds have around 25% to 30% of theirportfolio into Debt instruments which provides cushion to theportfolio return during market volatility.

Source: EPS Estimates by KIE

Units Now1 Yr

Prior

Macros & Flows

Nifty 50 11,700 9,900

12 Month Forward PE 18.71 17.96

FII Inflow (cumulative CYTD) $ bn -0.28 7.09

MF Inflow (cumulative CYTD) $ bn 6.88 9.33

Gsec Yields % 7.79 6.73

USD INR 70.87 63.98

US Yields 2.00 1.25

Micros

Earnings Growth (KIE Universe) 13.00 -8.1

GDP Growth (Qtr) 8.2 5.6

PMI 51.9 49.0

Non-Food Credit Growth 12.4 6.5

Commercial vehicle sales growth 29.7 13.8

Page 10: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 10

Recommended Large Cap, Multi Cap & Balanced Fund Performances

Source: MFI ExplorerReturns are CAGR as on Sept 18, 2018 and for Regular Plans with Growth option. Corpus size is as on Sept, 2018.

Scheme Name Corpus (In crs.) 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Investor Suitability

Large Cap Funds

Aditya Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund 21,880 3.05 11.79 17.68 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Axis Bluechip Fund 2,839 12.52 13.71 16.96 All Risk Profiles except Secure

ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund) 19,836 8.74 13.73 17.50 All Risk Profiles except Secure

SBI Bluechip Fund 20,701 2.48 11.34 18.84 All Risk Profiles except Secure

UTI Nifty Next 50 Index Fund All Risk Profiles except Secure

Large & Mid Cap Funds

Aditya Birla Sun Life Equity Advantage Fund (erstwhile Aditya Birla Sun Life Advantage Fund) 6,408 -5.32 12.85 22.73 All Risk Profiles except Secure

IDFC Core Equity Fund (erstwhilr IDFC Classic Equity Fund) 3,040 4.10 15.03 16.55 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Invesco India Growth Opportunities Fund (erstwhile Invesco India Growth Fund) 884 9.67 14.02 19.85 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Kotak Equity Opportunities Fund (erstwhile Kotak Opportunities Fund) 2,569 0.45 12.23 19.05 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Fund 6,120 3.68 18.97 32.53 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra)

Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Kotak Standard Multicap Fund (erstwhile Kotak Select Focus Fund) 21,927 4.41 14.12 21.74 All Risk Profiles except Secure

L&T India Value Fund 8,450 0.21 14.54 25.82 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Mirae Asset India Equity Fund (erstwhile Mirae Asset India Opportunities Fund) 9,049 6.83 15.46 22.29 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Motilal Oswal Multicap 35 Fund 14,052 -1.58 14.78 - All Risk Profiles except Secure

Mid & Small Cap Funds (Mid Cap/Small Cap)

Aditya Birla Sun Life Small Cap Fund (erstwhile Aditya Birla Sun Life Small & Midcap Fund ) 2,327 -4.97 15.87 26.96 All Risk Profiles except Secure

HDFC Small Cap Fund 5,111 15.72 21.30 24.25 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Kotak Emerging Equity Scheme 3,453 0.95 14.20 29.36 All Risk Profiles except Secure

L&T Midcap Fund 3,308 -0.88 16.92 29.69 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Aggressive Hybrid Funds

Aditya Birla Sun Life Equity Hybrid '95 (erstwhile Aditya Birla Sun Life Balanced 95) 15,001 0.57 10.80 17.47 All Risk Profiles except Secure

L&T Hybrid Equity Fund (erstwhile L&T India Prudence Fund) 10,971 2.13 10.75 18.45 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Reliance Equity Hybrid Fund 14,481 3.16 12.02 18.78 All Risk Profiles except Secure

SBI Equity Hybrid Fund (erstwhile SBI Magnum Balanced Fund) 28,105 6.36 10.72 18.01 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Balanced Advantage Funds (Balanced Advantage OR Dynamic Asset Allocation)

ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund 29,156 5.08 9.44 14.31 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Kotak Balanced Advantage Fund 2,053 - - - All Risk Profiles except Secure

Indices

Nifty 11.09 12.20 13.83

Page 11: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Debt Market Update &

Debt MF Strategy

Page 12: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 12

Indicators

Policy Action

• Based on the FX and crude price risks, we believe that theMPC will deliver a 25 bps of repo rate hike in the Octoberpolicy, possibly with a tweak in the policy stance.

• Threat to overshoot the RBI’s Q1FY20 inflation estimateof 5%

Inflation

• CPI inflation moderated to 3.69% in August compared to 4.17% in July led by softer food and core inflation

• Expect CPI inflation prints in the near term to remain benign• CPI likely to inch towards 4.8% by March 2019 on the back of

pass-through of MSP hikes and elevated core inflation

10 Year G-Sec Benchmark Yield• G-Sec yields expected to remain firm and range bound• We pencil in a 25 bps rate hike in the October policy

Liquidity• Liquidity expected to tighten going forward• Advance Tax payments, festival season and upcoming state

elections may lead of higher currency leakage in coming months

• Quantum and frequency of OMO Purchase key trigger for liquidity

INR• INR likely to remain under pressure as the DM monetary

policies unwind and their effects on EMs are visible over the next few years

• As the global economy undergoes a prolonged period of adjustment from the winding up of easy monetary policy in DMs, phases of pains in the EMs will continue

Key Risks• Global monetary tightening• Crude Prices• Inflation• GST Revenues

G-Sec Supply• RBI has done three OMOs, aggregating to INR

30,000Crs. • One additional OMO of INR 10,000Crs announced.• While Net G-Sec supply net of OMOs and maturities

seem to be moderate, SDL supply may be higher.

Debt Market: Key Variables

Page 13: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 13

379

1,470

-421-803

-2,105

-2,629

-1,621

105355

Dec 17Jan 18Feb 18Mar 18Apr 18 May18

Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug18

-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

US

D M

illi

on

FIIs have sold ~7bn USD since 31st Jan 2018

71.36

Oct 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Jul 18

63.0

64.0

65.0

66.0

67.0

68.0

69.0

70.0

71.0

72.0

INR has depreciated by ~7.5% in 2018 YTD

837889 880 893

1035940.16 956.1 964.83 939.6

Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

GST collections improving, breakeven rate close to 1.05 bn/month

Note: As of 5th September 2018, Source Bloomberg, Nomura

78.17

Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Brent price @78bbl ,still above Fiscal estimates based on $68/bbl

$/bbl

Rs bn

FIIs remain net sellers since Jan 18, INR and Crude Price leading to weaker external situation

Page 14: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 14

3.64

8.779.23

11.8

5.72

12.16

14.2316.64

Jul 18Jul 17Jul 16Jul 15

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Dynamic funds Gilt funds

Long end funds have cut down the duration significantly

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

% Y

ield

Repo Rate (1 yr forward) 1 yr OIS

Shorter tenure yields increased due to rate hike

Note: As of 13th September 2018, Source Bloomberg, MFI

9.00

8.50

8.23

7.68

Sep 18Jul 18Apr 18Jan 18

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

3 Year AAA has inched up by 125 bps in last 9 months

8.03

7.777.77

7.43

Sep 18Jul 18Apr 18Jan 18

7.10

7.20

7.30

7.40

7.50

7.60

7.70

7.80

7.90

8.00

8.10

10 Year yield crossed 8%

Most indicators leading to pressure on rates

Page 15: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 15Note: As of 13th September 2018, Source Bloomberg

Aug 2018 Aug 2017

Policy rate % 6.5% 6.0%

INR 70.87 63.98

Brent oil $/bbl 77.64 53.69

Trade balance $ bn (17.4) (12.7)

FII Net flows (CYTD) $ bn (5.6) 19.9

Liquidity Rs bn 14 2741

CPI % 3.69% 3.28%

Macro Variables Witnessing weakening of macro variables in last one year

Page 16: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 16

16Performance as on 10-09-2018

Debt Funds Performance – Last 1 YearSignificant inch-up in yields has led liquid funds to out-perform all other segments

7.046.74

6.39

5.14

3.23

1.05

0.17

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Liquid Funds Ultra ShortDuration

Funds

Low Duration Medium &Credit Risk

Fund

Short-TermFund

Dynamic Gilt

Performance Comparison over the last 1 year

Page 17: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 17

17

Tenors G-Sec AAA - PSU AAA- Corp AA+ AA AA- A+

3M 6.1 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.5 9.4

6M 6.3 7.5 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.9 9.7

1Y 7.5 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.3 10.2

3Y 8.1 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.6 10.5

5Y 8.3 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.5 10.4

7Y 8.3 9.0 9.0 9.2 9.5 9.6 10.4

10Y 8.2 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.6 10.4

15Y 8.4 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.7

Credit SpreadsThe current spreads call for high quality (AAA) in upto 3 year segment

Page 18: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 18

Our View on NBFCs and HFCs Selloff on 21st September, 2018

Source: AMCs, other Financial websites

Events - Debt• One AMC sold DHFL Bonds at a slightly higher yield to meet liquidity requirement. It got traded at a price

in the secondary transaction which was sharply lower than the issuance price. • On the back of credit concerns related to IL&FS bonds, it led some participants to believe that funding

cost for NBFCs could go further higher.• DHFL management clarified that they are fairly liquid and solvent.

Our stance• Based on the FX and crude price risks, we believe that the MPC will deliver a 25 bps of repo rate hike in

the October policy, possibly with a tweak in the policy stance. • We expect banking liquidity to tighten going forward on account of advance tax payments, festival season

and upcoming state elections.• We expect the yields to remain firm and range bound.• Additional spread of moderate rated funds or credit funds have reduced due to increase in AAA yields,

hence AAA allocation seems attractive on a risk-reward perspective.

Page 19: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 19

India Fixed Income: Strategy

10 Year Gsec has touched 8.2% on concerns of INR weakening. Despite rate hike, 10 Year spread over repo is still at high level (~170 bps vs ~60bps historical).

Fall in crude prices had helped reduce FII selling pressure in July and August. AAA yields have increased by ~50 bps in last 6 months hence we recommend allocation to 10 Year AAA “Hold to maturity” Fund in the HTM bucket. Additional spread of Credit Funds over AAA have reduced due to increase in AAA/AA yields, hence we prefer funds with AAA, AA allocation from risk-reward perspective.

Therefore we recommend lower allocation to “Credit Funds” and increased allocation to “Low Duration” and “FMPs”.

Investment Focus:Passive Accrual-Oriented Debt funds

High quality portfolios (~100% AAA / Sovereign)

Portfolio is run on a passive accrual basis i.e buying a bond and holding it till maturity thereby earning from the accruing of interest

Higher predictability of return, lower volatility & lower interest rate risk

Prefer core allocations in the 1 to 3 year segment

Due to absolute high yields, we advice investors to allocate excess liquidity to Debt funds at current level via FMPs/Roll Down Strategy.

Source : AMCs, other Financial websites

Page 20: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 20

Recommended Short Term Bond, High Yield & Debt Others Performances

Source: MFI ExplorerScheme Returns are as on Sept 18, 2018 and for Regular Plans with Growth option. Corpus size is as on August, 2018.

Scheme Name TierCorpus (In

crs.)6m 1Yr 2Yr Investor Suitability

Short Term 1-3 yrs (Corporate Bond/ Banking & PSU/Short Duration)

Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond Fund I 13,297 4.72 4.60 6.43 All Risk Profiles except Secure

HDFC Banking and PSU Debt Fund I 2,922 2.96 3.60 5.84 All Risk Profiles except Secure

ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund I 5,178 4.23 3.61 6.28 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Kotak Banking and PSU Debt Fund I 981 4.34 4.18 6.20 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Axis Banking & PSU Debt Fund II 1,144 3.98 5.17 6.52 All Risk Profiles

IDFC Banking & PSU Debt Fund II 661 3.40 3.86 5.30 All Risk Profiles

L&T Triple Ace Bond Fund II 288 0.89 1.52 2.95 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Sundaram Corporate Bond Fund II 354 1.12 0.78 4.46 All Risk Profiles

Medium & Credit Risk Funds (Medium Duration/Credit Risk)

Kotak Credit Risk Fund I 5,367 4.66 4.88 6.50 All Risk Profiles except Secure

L&T Credit Risk Fund I 3,945 3.97 4.42 6.58 All Risk Profiles except Secure

UTI Medium Term Fund I 249 3.88 4.19 6.53 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Aditya Birla Sun Life Credit Risk Fund II 8,327 5.17 5.06 7.51 All Risk Profiles except Secure

BOI AXA Credit Risk Fund II 1,689 3.79 5.22 7.65 All Risk Profiles except Secure & Conservative

ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund II 11,412 5.45 5.15 6.79 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Dynamic Debt (Medium to Long Duration/ Dynamic Bond/Gilt)ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan) I 2,070 4.37 2.48 6.47 All Risk Profiles except SecureICICI Prudential Gilt Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Long Term Gilt Fund) I 1,161 6.90 1.20 4.95 All Risk Profiles except SecureUTI Dynamic Bond Fund I 1,220 4.50 1.36 5.99 All Risk Profiles except SecureUTI Gilt Fund I 499 4.66 0.12 6.00 All Risk Profiles except SecureICICI Prudential Bond Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Income Opportunities Fund) II 2,894 2.04 1.24 4.55 All Risk Profiles

Page 21: Equity & Debt Strategy · Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra) Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure Kotak Standard

Confidential | 21

DisclaimerThe aforesaid is for information purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice under SEBI (Investment Advisory) Regulations.

In the preparation of the material contained in this document, Kotak Mahindra Bank has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the Kotak Mahindra Bank and/or its affiliates and which mayhave been made available to Kotak Mahindra Bank and/or its affiliates. Information gathered & material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. KotakMahindra Bank however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and/or completeness of any information. For data reference to any third party in this material nosuch party will assume any liability for the same. Kotak Mahindra Bank and/or any affiliate of Kotak Mahindra Bank does not in any way through this material solicit any offerfor purchase, sale or any financial transaction/commodities/products of any financial instrument dealt in this material. All recipients of this material should before dealingand or transacting in any of the products referred to in this material make their own investigation, seek appropriate professional advice

We have included statements/opinions/recommendations in this document which contain words or phrases such as "will", "expect" "should" and similar expressions orvariations of such expressions, that are "forward looking statements". Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due torisks or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India andother countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipatedturbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices, the performance of the financial markets in India and globally, changes indomestic and foreign laws, regulations and taxes and changes in competition in the industry. By their nature, certain market risk disclosures are only estimates and could bematerially different from what actually occurs in the future. As a result, actual future gains or losses could materially differ from those that have been estimated

Kotak Mahindra Bank (including its affiliates) and any of its officers directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but notlimited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. The recipientalone shall be fully responsible/ are liable for any decision taken on the basis of this material. The investments discussed in this material may not be suitable for all investors.Any person subscribing to or investing in any product/financial instruments should do so on the basis of and after verifying the terms attached to such product/financialinstrument. Financial products and instruments are subject to market risks and yields may fluctuate depending on various factors affecting capital/debt markets. Please notethat past performance of the financial products and instruments does not necessarily indicate the future prospects and performance thereof. Such past performance mayormay not be sustained in future. Kotak Mahindra Bank (including its affiliates) or its officers, directors, personnel and employees, including persons involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in anyother transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation in the financial instruments/products/commodities discussed herein or act as advisoror lender / borrower in respect of such securities/financial instruments/products/commodities or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to anyrecommendation and related information and opinions. The said persons may have acted upon and/or in a manner contradictory with the information contained here. Nopart of this material may be duplicated in whole or in part in any form and or redistributed without the prior written consent of Kotak Mahindra Bank. This material is strictlyconfidential to the recipient and should not be reproduced or disseminated to anyone else

This material is not a research report as per the SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014.

Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.


Recommended