Equity & Debt Strategy
Mid Sept – Oct’ 2018
Equity Market Update &
Equity MF Strategy
Confidential | 3
Nifty 50 rose 3% with Midcap Index rising 5.5% in August
18,700
18,900
19,100
19,300
19,500
19,700
19,900
20,100
20,300
20,500
10,600
10,800
11,000
11,200
11,400
11,600
11,800
30/07 05/08 11/08 17/08 23/08 29/08 04/09 10/09
NIFTY Index Nsemcap index
Global rally in the
wake of strong US
earnings
News of US, China trade
talks fuelled expectation
RBI repo US Fed indicates
sticking to gradual rate
hikes
India’s trade deficit
soared to near 5-year
high of %18 bn
INR continues to
weaken & crude
prices rise
-9,276
-2,526
1,414 9041,372
4,858
286
-987
13,085
9,105
3,883 3,767
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18
FII DII excl MF MF
Nifty 50 rose to all-time high in August combined with recovery in Midcap 100; Sep began with sharp correction due to weak macros
MF buying slowed down leading to tepid market sentiments
Cash holdings of Top 100 Equity Mutual Funds has reduced
Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE), AMFI, NSE Infoedge, Citi ResearchAs of 11th September, 2018
cr
Net Flows to Equity Mutual Funds rose above 10k cr this month due to 3-month high inflow in Balanced Funds
cr
13,083
10,6239,639 10,085
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18
Net investment in Cash market
Note: Amount excludes Arbitrage Funds, assumes 65% equity flow from Balanced
3.70%3.50%
2.80%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18
Confidential | 4
Export oriented and countries with high Foreign Debt have been impacted significantly; India seen as safe haven among EMs
Since 1st Apr, Emerging markets have corrected by 10%, Nifty 50 continues to remain an outlier
USD continued to strengthen in FYTD18 against all EM led by steady growth, rise in US interest rates and deteriorating macros in EM
QE Unwind program is gaining pace, Fed Balance sheet leaner by $245 bn in last 1 Year
As of 11th September 2018Source: Bloomberg, KIE
Chinese monthly exports growth not impacted significantly since US tariffs not entirely implemented
14.0%
3.4%
-9.8%
-13.1%
-4.9%-7.6%
3.0%
11.0%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Nifty 50 NiftyMidcap
MSCI EM Shanghai SouthKorea
Hongkong Germany US
89.74
61.12
77.82
78.50
92.40
55.00
65.00
75.00
85.00
95.00
105.00
Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18
India Turkey Brazil South Africa Indonesia
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
Aug 15 Feb 16 Aug 16 Feb 17 Aug 17 Feb 18 Aug 18
China Export (Seasonally adjusted)
YoY%
Base 100 on 1-April-18
In local currency terms
4,050,000
4,100,000
4,150,000
4,200,000
4,250,000
4,300,000
4,350,000
4,400,000
4,450,000
4,500,000
4,550,000
Oct 14
Dec 1
4
Fe
b 1
5
Ap
r 15
Jun
15
Au
g 1
5
Oct 15
Dec 1
5
Fe
b 1
6
Ap
r 16
Jun
16
Au
g 1
6
Oct 16
Dec 1
6
Fe
b 1
7
Ap
r 17
Jun
17
Au
g 1
7
Oct 17
Dec 1
7
Fe
b 1
8
Ap
r 18
Jun
18
Au
g 1
8
$ Mn
Confidential | 5
Capital imports growth strong over 3 months indicating recovery in corporate investments
IIP growth remained strong in July at 6.6%
Urban consumption driven companies report strong earnings growth in Q1FY19
Rural consumption driven companies had mixed growth numbers, with consumer goods reporting good numbers
Source: KIE, NomuraYoY% growth
Capital imports highlight strong domestic economy recovery, Both Rural and Urban consumption strong
73.60%
34.20%32.10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jubiliant Nestle Asian Paints
19.50%17.30%
-0.90%-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
HUL Dabur Hero Motorcop
8.70%
34.20%31.50% 30.30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18
6.9
5.3
4.5
3.9
6.9
6.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18
YoY%YoY%
Confidential | 6
Earnings and Valuation
Post recent correction, Mid Caps still at a 14% premium over large caps
Q1FY2018 PAT for our universe has grown by 26.7%, Nifty PAT impacted by Bank provisioning and Tata Motors
FY19 earnings outlook relatively stable compared to FY17 and FY18 We expect 21% Nifty 50 Earnings growth for FY19 and FY20
21.7
30.1
42.2
12.8
34.3
21.6 20.9
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Auto Banking Consumers Energy Pharma Tech Nifty 50PE 2019E400.00
450.00
500.00
550.00
600.00
650.00
700.00
Apr 15Aug 15Dec 15Apr 16Aug 16Dec 16Apr 17Aug 17Dec 17Apr 18Aug 18
FY2019 FY2018 FY2017
Source: Bloomberg, KIE * Based on KIE Estimates on free float basis.As of 2nd August 2018
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Sep 15 Mar 16 Sep 16 Mar 17 Sep 17 Mar 18 Sep 18
12m Forward PE of Mid Cap over Large Cap
Nifty Mid Cap
Nifty 50
14% Premium
43.9
22.7
5.3 3.4 7.6
-23.5-17.9
-4.6
5.7
-11.9 -7.6
11.1
-40.8
-6.4
21.1
59
-4.7
56.1
30.2
14.1 12.3
26.7
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80 Actual/Expected % YoY Growth
Confidential | 7
Key Triggers
• Global Economic data : World economy improving
• Q1 Earnings: Several companies posted strong growth in current quarter
• Resolution of NPA: Effective addressal of NCLT lists
• Weaker Rupee: Benefit export-oriented sectors like Auto, Chemicals, IT and Pharma
• Monsoon/Rural recovery: Government focus on rural economyincluding increase of MSP could benefit rural consumption
Positive Triggers
• Trade Wars: Further tariffs imposed by US/China and strict enforcement of Iran sanctions
• Monetary Policy: Faster than expected monetary tightening in Europe and US
• Weaker Macro: Higher crude prices, weaker currency and low GST collection could lead to lower re-rating of Equity valuations
• Elections: A combined opposition can be threat to BJP in next elections
Risks
Confidential | 8
Our View on NBFCs and HFCs Selloff on 21st September, 2018
Events - Equity• There was a significant sell-off in the financial services stocks and broader markets.• While the fall in banking stocks may be pertaining to RBI’s actions on tenure extension of the CEO of
one of the private banks, the fall in NBFC stocks may be on account of the sale of some NBFCs’ debt instruments at higher yields by an AMC.
Our stance• The selling in the broader market was largely sentiment driven with no apparent fundamental
negatives.• We have been underweight equities largely due to our view that the risk-reward was unattractive at
the prevailing valuations even considering earnings growth especially when debt yields were attractive.
• The events mentioned above do not warrant any change in our stance. We believe, broader markets saw a knee jerk reaction and prices of most stocks should stabilize once the panic subsides.
Source: AMCs, other Financial websites
Confidential | 9
India Equities: Valuations & Strategy – Shift from Neutral to Underweight
Nifty rose 3% for the month to life time high levels on the back of agood start to the earnings seasons. However the recent rally is amidstmacro headwinds.
However Equity valuations have run up ahead of earnings and Nifty 50risk-reward is skewed towards downside, hence with the visibility of avolatile election year, we are shifting our stance from “Neutral” to“Underweight”.
Mutual Funds: As domestic liquidity continues to drive markets, weadvise new investments to be staggered in Mutual Funds via SIPs/STPs.
Recommended allocation within equity mutual funds is as under:
• 50% Large Cap allocation (Prefer Large Cap stocks over Mid capsince Mid cap valuations are still above historical levels)
• 50% Multi Cap allocation (such funds currently have a biastoward large cap)
• For investors who want equity exposure but have low appetitefor volatility, they can take equity exposure through AggressiveHybrid Funds. Such funds have around 25% to 30% of theirportfolio into Debt instruments which provides cushion to theportfolio return during market volatility.
Source: EPS Estimates by KIE
Units Now1 Yr
Prior
Macros & Flows
Nifty 50 11,700 9,900
12 Month Forward PE 18.71 17.96
FII Inflow (cumulative CYTD) $ bn -0.28 7.09
MF Inflow (cumulative CYTD) $ bn 6.88 9.33
Gsec Yields % 7.79 6.73
USD INR 70.87 63.98
US Yields 2.00 1.25
Micros
Earnings Growth (KIE Universe) 13.00 -8.1
GDP Growth (Qtr) 8.2 5.6
PMI 51.9 49.0
Non-Food Credit Growth 12.4 6.5
Commercial vehicle sales growth 29.7 13.8
Confidential | 10
Recommended Large Cap, Multi Cap & Balanced Fund Performances
Source: MFI ExplorerReturns are CAGR as on Sept 18, 2018 and for Regular Plans with Growth option. Corpus size is as on Sept, 2018.
Scheme Name Corpus (In crs.) 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Investor Suitability
Large Cap Funds
Aditya Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund 21,880 3.05 11.79 17.68 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Axis Bluechip Fund 2,839 12.52 13.71 16.96 All Risk Profiles except Secure
ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund) 19,836 8.74 13.73 17.50 All Risk Profiles except Secure
SBI Bluechip Fund 20,701 2.48 11.34 18.84 All Risk Profiles except Secure
UTI Nifty Next 50 Index Fund All Risk Profiles except Secure
Large & Mid Cap Funds
Aditya Birla Sun Life Equity Advantage Fund (erstwhile Aditya Birla Sun Life Advantage Fund) 6,408 -5.32 12.85 22.73 All Risk Profiles except Secure
IDFC Core Equity Fund (erstwhilr IDFC Classic Equity Fund) 3,040 4.10 15.03 16.55 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Invesco India Growth Opportunities Fund (erstwhile Invesco India Growth Fund) 884 9.67 14.02 19.85 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Kotak Equity Opportunities Fund (erstwhile Kotak Opportunities Fund) 2,569 0.45 12.23 19.05 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Fund 6,120 3.68 18.97 32.53 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra)
Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,053 11.17 17.40 19.93 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Kotak Standard Multicap Fund (erstwhile Kotak Select Focus Fund) 21,927 4.41 14.12 21.74 All Risk Profiles except Secure
L&T India Value Fund 8,450 0.21 14.54 25.82 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Mirae Asset India Equity Fund (erstwhile Mirae Asset India Opportunities Fund) 9,049 6.83 15.46 22.29 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Motilal Oswal Multicap 35 Fund 14,052 -1.58 14.78 - All Risk Profiles except Secure
Mid & Small Cap Funds (Mid Cap/Small Cap)
Aditya Birla Sun Life Small Cap Fund (erstwhile Aditya Birla Sun Life Small & Midcap Fund ) 2,327 -4.97 15.87 26.96 All Risk Profiles except Secure
HDFC Small Cap Fund 5,111 15.72 21.30 24.25 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Kotak Emerging Equity Scheme 3,453 0.95 14.20 29.36 All Risk Profiles except Secure
L&T Midcap Fund 3,308 -0.88 16.92 29.69 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Aggressive Hybrid Funds
Aditya Birla Sun Life Equity Hybrid '95 (erstwhile Aditya Birla Sun Life Balanced 95) 15,001 0.57 10.80 17.47 All Risk Profiles except Secure
L&T Hybrid Equity Fund (erstwhile L&T India Prudence Fund) 10,971 2.13 10.75 18.45 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Reliance Equity Hybrid Fund 14,481 3.16 12.02 18.78 All Risk Profiles except Secure
SBI Equity Hybrid Fund (erstwhile SBI Magnum Balanced Fund) 28,105 6.36 10.72 18.01 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Balanced Advantage Funds (Balanced Advantage OR Dynamic Asset Allocation)
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund 29,156 5.08 9.44 14.31 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Kotak Balanced Advantage Fund 2,053 - - - All Risk Profiles except Secure
Indices
Nifty 11.09 12.20 13.83
Debt Market Update &
Debt MF Strategy
Confidential | 12
Indicators
Policy Action
• Based on the FX and crude price risks, we believe that theMPC will deliver a 25 bps of repo rate hike in the Octoberpolicy, possibly with a tweak in the policy stance.
• Threat to overshoot the RBI’s Q1FY20 inflation estimateof 5%
Inflation
• CPI inflation moderated to 3.69% in August compared to 4.17% in July led by softer food and core inflation
• Expect CPI inflation prints in the near term to remain benign• CPI likely to inch towards 4.8% by March 2019 on the back of
pass-through of MSP hikes and elevated core inflation
10 Year G-Sec Benchmark Yield• G-Sec yields expected to remain firm and range bound• We pencil in a 25 bps rate hike in the October policy
Liquidity• Liquidity expected to tighten going forward• Advance Tax payments, festival season and upcoming state
elections may lead of higher currency leakage in coming months
• Quantum and frequency of OMO Purchase key trigger for liquidity
INR• INR likely to remain under pressure as the DM monetary
policies unwind and their effects on EMs are visible over the next few years
• As the global economy undergoes a prolonged period of adjustment from the winding up of easy monetary policy in DMs, phases of pains in the EMs will continue
Key Risks• Global monetary tightening• Crude Prices• Inflation• GST Revenues
G-Sec Supply• RBI has done three OMOs, aggregating to INR
30,000Crs. • One additional OMO of INR 10,000Crs announced.• While Net G-Sec supply net of OMOs and maturities
seem to be moderate, SDL supply may be higher.
Debt Market: Key Variables
Confidential | 13
379
1,470
-421-803
-2,105
-2,629
-1,621
105355
Dec 17Jan 18Feb 18Mar 18Apr 18 May18
Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug18
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
US
D M
illi
on
FIIs have sold ~7bn USD since 31st Jan 2018
71.36
Oct 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Jul 18
63.0
64.0
65.0
66.0
67.0
68.0
69.0
70.0
71.0
72.0
INR has depreciated by ~7.5% in 2018 YTD
837889 880 893
1035940.16 956.1 964.83 939.6
Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
GST collections improving, breakeven rate close to 1.05 bn/month
Note: As of 5th September 2018, Source Bloomberg, Nomura
78.17
Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Brent price @78bbl ,still above Fiscal estimates based on $68/bbl
$/bbl
Rs bn
FIIs remain net sellers since Jan 18, INR and Crude Price leading to weaker external situation
Confidential | 14
3.64
8.779.23
11.8
5.72
12.16
14.2316.64
Jul 18Jul 17Jul 16Jul 15
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Dynamic funds Gilt funds
Long end funds have cut down the duration significantly
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
% Y
ield
Repo Rate (1 yr forward) 1 yr OIS
Shorter tenure yields increased due to rate hike
Note: As of 13th September 2018, Source Bloomberg, MFI
9.00
8.50
8.23
7.68
Sep 18Jul 18Apr 18Jan 18
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
9.50
3 Year AAA has inched up by 125 bps in last 9 months
8.03
7.777.77
7.43
Sep 18Jul 18Apr 18Jan 18
7.10
7.20
7.30
7.40
7.50
7.60
7.70
7.80
7.90
8.00
8.10
10 Year yield crossed 8%
Most indicators leading to pressure on rates
Confidential | 15Note: As of 13th September 2018, Source Bloomberg
Aug 2018 Aug 2017
Policy rate % 6.5% 6.0%
INR 70.87 63.98
Brent oil $/bbl 77.64 53.69
Trade balance $ bn (17.4) (12.7)
FII Net flows (CYTD) $ bn (5.6) 19.9
Liquidity Rs bn 14 2741
CPI % 3.69% 3.28%
Macro Variables Witnessing weakening of macro variables in last one year
Confidential | 16
16Performance as on 10-09-2018
Debt Funds Performance – Last 1 YearSignificant inch-up in yields has led liquid funds to out-perform all other segments
7.046.74
6.39
5.14
3.23
1.05
0.17
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Liquid Funds Ultra ShortDuration
Funds
Low Duration Medium &Credit Risk
Fund
Short-TermFund
Dynamic Gilt
Performance Comparison over the last 1 year
Confidential | 17
17
Tenors G-Sec AAA - PSU AAA- Corp AA+ AA AA- A+
3M 6.1 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.5 9.4
6M 6.3 7.5 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.9 9.7
1Y 7.5 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.3 10.2
3Y 8.1 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.6 10.5
5Y 8.3 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.5 10.4
7Y 8.3 9.0 9.0 9.2 9.5 9.6 10.4
10Y 8.2 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.6 10.4
15Y 8.4 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.7
Credit SpreadsThe current spreads call for high quality (AAA) in upto 3 year segment
Confidential | 18
Our View on NBFCs and HFCs Selloff on 21st September, 2018
Source: AMCs, other Financial websites
Events - Debt• One AMC sold DHFL Bonds at a slightly higher yield to meet liquidity requirement. It got traded at a price
in the secondary transaction which was sharply lower than the issuance price. • On the back of credit concerns related to IL&FS bonds, it led some participants to believe that funding
cost for NBFCs could go further higher.• DHFL management clarified that they are fairly liquid and solvent.
Our stance• Based on the FX and crude price risks, we believe that the MPC will deliver a 25 bps of repo rate hike in
the October policy, possibly with a tweak in the policy stance. • We expect banking liquidity to tighten going forward on account of advance tax payments, festival season
and upcoming state elections.• We expect the yields to remain firm and range bound.• Additional spread of moderate rated funds or credit funds have reduced due to increase in AAA yields,
hence AAA allocation seems attractive on a risk-reward perspective.
Confidential | 19
India Fixed Income: Strategy
10 Year Gsec has touched 8.2% on concerns of INR weakening. Despite rate hike, 10 Year spread over repo is still at high level (~170 bps vs ~60bps historical).
Fall in crude prices had helped reduce FII selling pressure in July and August. AAA yields have increased by ~50 bps in last 6 months hence we recommend allocation to 10 Year AAA “Hold to maturity” Fund in the HTM bucket. Additional spread of Credit Funds over AAA have reduced due to increase in AAA/AA yields, hence we prefer funds with AAA, AA allocation from risk-reward perspective.
Therefore we recommend lower allocation to “Credit Funds” and increased allocation to “Low Duration” and “FMPs”.
Investment Focus:Passive Accrual-Oriented Debt funds
High quality portfolios (~100% AAA / Sovereign)
Portfolio is run on a passive accrual basis i.e buying a bond and holding it till maturity thereby earning from the accruing of interest
Higher predictability of return, lower volatility & lower interest rate risk
Prefer core allocations in the 1 to 3 year segment
Due to absolute high yields, we advice investors to allocate excess liquidity to Debt funds at current level via FMPs/Roll Down Strategy.
Source : AMCs, other Financial websites
Confidential | 20
Recommended Short Term Bond, High Yield & Debt Others Performances
Source: MFI ExplorerScheme Returns are as on Sept 18, 2018 and for Regular Plans with Growth option. Corpus size is as on August, 2018.
Scheme Name TierCorpus (In
crs.)6m 1Yr 2Yr Investor Suitability
Short Term 1-3 yrs (Corporate Bond/ Banking & PSU/Short Duration)
Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond Fund I 13,297 4.72 4.60 6.43 All Risk Profiles except Secure
HDFC Banking and PSU Debt Fund I 2,922 2.96 3.60 5.84 All Risk Profiles except Secure
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund I 5,178 4.23 3.61 6.28 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Kotak Banking and PSU Debt Fund I 981 4.34 4.18 6.20 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Axis Banking & PSU Debt Fund II 1,144 3.98 5.17 6.52 All Risk Profiles
IDFC Banking & PSU Debt Fund II 661 3.40 3.86 5.30 All Risk Profiles
L&T Triple Ace Bond Fund II 288 0.89 1.52 2.95 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Sundaram Corporate Bond Fund II 354 1.12 0.78 4.46 All Risk Profiles
Medium & Credit Risk Funds (Medium Duration/Credit Risk)
Kotak Credit Risk Fund I 5,367 4.66 4.88 6.50 All Risk Profiles except Secure
L&T Credit Risk Fund I 3,945 3.97 4.42 6.58 All Risk Profiles except Secure
UTI Medium Term Fund I 249 3.88 4.19 6.53 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Aditya Birla Sun Life Credit Risk Fund II 8,327 5.17 5.06 7.51 All Risk Profiles except Secure
BOI AXA Credit Risk Fund II 1,689 3.79 5.22 7.65 All Risk Profiles except Secure & Conservative
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund II 11,412 5.45 5.15 6.79 All Risk Profiles except Secure
Dynamic Debt (Medium to Long Duration/ Dynamic Bond/Gilt)ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan) I 2,070 4.37 2.48 6.47 All Risk Profiles except SecureICICI Prudential Gilt Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Long Term Gilt Fund) I 1,161 6.90 1.20 4.95 All Risk Profiles except SecureUTI Dynamic Bond Fund I 1,220 4.50 1.36 5.99 All Risk Profiles except SecureUTI Gilt Fund I 499 4.66 0.12 6.00 All Risk Profiles except SecureICICI Prudential Bond Fund (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Income Opportunities Fund) II 2,894 2.04 1.24 4.55 All Risk Profiles
Confidential | 21
DisclaimerThe aforesaid is for information purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice under SEBI (Investment Advisory) Regulations.
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