ERA-CLIM2 M36 Review Meeting - ECMWF · ERA-CLIM2 M36 Review Mee1ng (Wien, 16-18 Jan 2017) ... s1ll...

©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza1

Roberto Buizza European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

ERA-CLIM2 M36 Review Meeting


TheFP7ERA-CLIM2project(2014-2017)

Goal:Produc,onofaconsistent20th-centuryreanalysisofthecoupledEarth-system:atmosphere,landsurface,ocean,sea-ice,andthecarboncycle

Maincomponents:

•  Produc,onofcoupledreanalyses,for20Candthemodernera (WP1)•  Researchanddevelopmentincoupleddataassimila,on (WP2)•  Earthsystemobserva,onsforextendedclimatereanalyses (WP3)•  Evalua,onofuncertain,esinobserva,onsandreanalyses (WP4)•  Improvingaccesstoreanalysisdataandinputobserva,ons (WP5)


The3rdGeneralAssembly:Wien16-18Jan2017

Fewnumbers:Ø  AEendedby34people,with33presenta1onsfromERA-CLIM2par1cipants,Ø WGdiscussions,ExternalAdvisercomments,discussionsØ  Deliverables:somedelaysindatare-processing(EUMETSAT)duetochangesin

compu1ngenvironment

Asaprojectcoordinator,Ithinkthattheprojecthasbeenprogressingverywellandmostlyon-schedulewithrespecttotheplandefinedattheendof2015:•  Verygoodoverallinterac1on•  CERA-20Cisagreatsuccess:thisisthe1stCoupledReanalysisofthe20thCentury•  CERA-SATisinproduc1onandplanstocomplete8-10years(2008-to-date)•  Rescuedandpost-processedobserva1onsarebeingfedintokeydataarchives•  NewlydevelopedmethodsarebeingintegratedinsoYwaredepositoriestobetested

forfutureuse


Keyachievementsofpast9months:WP1

Timeseriesofthemul4variateENSOindexforERA-20C,CERA-20CandtheWolter&Timlinobserva4onalproduct(MEI.ext)TheElNiñoandLaNiñaeventsarecapturedbythetworeanalyses

§  CERA-20Cdatasetiscompleted(1901-2010)§  CERA-SATproduc1onhasstarted(2008-2016)§  OceancarbonreanalysisforcedbyERA-20C

completed§  LandcarbonreanalysisbasedonORCHIDEE

forcedbyCERA-20Ciscompleted§  OceancarbonreanalysisforcedbyCERA-20C

scheduledfor2017§  Consolida1onoftheORCHIDEEmodelforland

carbonreanalyses:landcarbonreanalysesbasedontheconsolidatedORCHIDEE,forcedbyCERA-20CandCERA-SATscheduledfor2017


Keyachievementsofpast9months:WP2§  Contribu1onstotheWMOCoupledDataAssimila1onWorkshopinToulouse,Oct2016(co-

sponsoredbyERA-CLIM2)§  DeliverableD2.4completedbyCMCC:“Stronglycoupleddataassimila1onexperiments

withlinearizedocean-atmospherebalancerela1onshipsandhybridcovariances”§  Paperpublishedoncarboncycleassimila1on(Peylinetal.,GMD).§  Progressonotherupcomingdeliverables–seelaterpresenta1ons.

Towards strongly coupled DA:

Variance explained for 2m air temp from a linearised air-sea balance operator


Keyachievementsofpast9months:WP3§  Contribu1onstotheConferenceon‘Observa1onsforReanalyses’(22June2016,Maynooth,

Ireland,togetherwithACREmee1ng)§  Con1nua1onofdatarescue:Deliverable3.4§  RTTOVupdatesandoceandatabaseupdatesdelivered,earlysatellitedataalmost§  Casestudy‘Avalanchesduringthewinterof1916’


Keyachievementsofpast9months:WP4

§  Precipita1onvalida1onwithDWDdatahasbeenprogressing

§  ERA-preSATpapersubmiEed§  Goodprogressin‘coupledevalua1on’ofoceanicand

atmosphericreanalysisdata§  QualityControlfornewlydigi1sedupperair,surface,snow

datafromRussiaandothercountriesalmostcompleted§  CHUANv2.0datamergedwithavailabledata,feedback

dataforall1meseriescalculatedforvariousfullandsurfacedataonlyreanalyses

§  GoodprogressinRS-Thomogeniza1onbackto1939,RS-Hhomogeniza1onbackto1979


Keyachievementsofpast9months:WP5§  TechnicaldevelopmentinMARStosupport

archivingandretrievalofNetCDFformatcompleted

§  Consolida1onofCERA-20Cdataintotheuserversionhasbeenprogressingwell:•  Complete:Atmosphericandwavemonthly

means:30Tbytes.AvailableviathePublicDataServer

•  Inprogress:Atmosphericandwaveanalysis(allmembers)andensemblemeansandstandarddevia1on:200Tbytes.ExpectedendJan2017

•  Followedbyforecast(allmembers),observa1onfeedbackandoceancomponent:Over1Pbyte.Expectedformonth42.

§  WehaveextendedtheframeworkofthePublicDataServertoreportonregisteredusersandaccesssta1s1cs,suchasvolumeandfieldsretrieved.Thishasbeendoneusingotherdatasets,buttherepor1ngwillbeavailablefortheaccesstoCERA-20Cduring2017.


Projectstatus:deliverablesWP1

Delivered DelayedStatus:

D1.1 CERA-20C 24 36 Delivered.

D1.2 CERA-20C/Carbon 36 48ExtensionallowscarbonreanalysestouseatmosphericforcingsfromERA20C.

D1.3 CERA-SAT 36 48(par1ally)

ExtensionallowstoestablishtheCERA-SATsystem,andrunitforaasubperiod(numberofyearstobeconfirmedoncesystemisupandrunning)between1979and2016dependingofHPCresourcesandproduc1onspeed

D1.4 CERA-SAT/Land 36 48(par1ally)

ExtensionallowsCERA-SAT/Landsystemtobeimplementedandrunoverasubperiodbetween1979and2016dependingofHPCresourcesandproduc1onspeed.

D1.5 StatusreportWP1 8 8 Delivered




D2.1 SSTassimila1oncode(METO) 27 39 Extensionallowsmore1mefortes1ngofdevelopmentsD2.2 Sea-iceassimila1oncode(MERCO) 27 39 Extensionallowstes1ngtobedoneinmorerecentversionofsystemD2.3 EnsembleBNEMOVARcode(CERFACS) 34 46 ExtensionallowshigherqualitydeliverableD2.4 ReportonensemblecovariancesincoupledDA(CMCC) 24 36 DeliveredD2.5 Reporton4D-Vartests(INRIA) 27 39 Extensionallowshigherqualitydeliverable

D2.6 Reportonlandcarbonmodelop1misa1on(UVSQ) 34 46Delayoftheproduc1onoftheclimatereanalysisinWP1putssomeconstraintontheCcyclereanalysis

D2.7 Reportonoceanbiogeochemicalcouplingmethods(MERCO) 34 46 ExtensionallowshigherqualitydeliverableD2.8 Reportonstrengths/weaknessesofcoupledDA(UREAD) 18 18 DeliveredD2.9 Reportoncouplederrorcovariances(METO) 18 18 DeliveredD2.10 ReportoncoupledmodeldriYanbiascorrec1on(UREAD) 34 46 ExtensionmakesitpossibletodeliverahighqualityreportD2.11 ReportonfullycoupledDA(INRIA) 34 46 ExtensionallowshigherqualitydeliverableD2.12 Statusreport(METO) 8 8 Delivered




D3.1 Datacatalogue(UBERN) 6 6 deliveredD3.2 Priori1esfordatarescue(UBERN) 6 6 deliveredD3.3 Meta-databaseupdate(UBERN) 36 48 con1nuousD3.4 In-situdataforreanalysis(UBERN) 24 36 SpanishEbroandNorthAfricanupperairnotin1meD3.5 In-situdata(other)(UBERN) 30 42 Chiledatanotin1meD3.6 Quality-controlledversionofD3.4(UBERN) 36 48 ShiYindeadlinesallowsmoredatafromFrenchoverseas,Interna1onaldaysD3.7 Quality-controlledversionofD3.5(UBERN) 33 48 ShiYindeadlinesallowsmoredatafromFrenchoverseas,Interna1onaldaysD3.8 RTTOVupdates(METO) 36 36 deliveredD3.9 Earlysatellitedata(METO) 36 36 TobesubmiEedbyendofJanuary(METO);

D3.10 AVHRRpolarwinds(EUMST) 24 36

ExpectedinM48-Delayedduetoupdatesofopera1onalEUMETSATalgorithmanddelayednewcomputeenvironmentatEUMETSAT;itwillcausenootherdelaysfortheproject;

D3.11 SSM/T2andAMSU-B/MHSradiancedata(EUMST) 24 24

ExpectedinM42-EUMETSATClimateMonitoringSatelliteApplica1onFacility(CM-SAF)diddeliveranATBDandapreliminaryversionofthedatarecordbutnottheprocessortoEUMETSAT;furthermore,theearlyversionofdatahadissuesthatresultedintheneedtoupdatetheinter-satellitecalibra1onmethod;itwillcausenofurtherdelaystotheproject'sdeliverables;

D3.12 Geosta1onaryradiancedata(EUMST) 36 36

ExpectedinM42-Recalibra1onofMeteosatIRchannelsisfinished;whatiss1llmissingistheintegra1onintotheoriginalimagefiles,whichisdelayedduetothedelayeddeliveryofthenewcomputeenvironmentatEUMETSAT;thiswillcauseadelayindeliverableD3.13;

D3.13 AMVfromMFG(EUMST) 36 42ExpectedinM48-ThiswillbedelayedduetodependenceonD3.12;thiswillnotcauseanydelaytootherproject'sdeliverables;

D3.14 Radioocculta1ondata(EUMST) 36 36

ExpectedinM48-DelayedduetoerrorfoundinGRASreprocesseddata;asecondprocessingoftheGRASmissiondatahasbeenperformedbutothermissiondataarependingtheprocessing.

D3.15 HadISST2update(METO) 18 18 deliveredD3.16 Icethicknessdata(METO) 12 12 deliveredD3.17 Oceandatabaseupdate(METO) 24 30 delivered

D3.18 Snowdataproduct(FMI) 24 36

ExpectedinM42-FMIinves1ga1onontheop1mumsetofcalcula1onparametersofSWEassimila1onsystemiss1llgoingon(adetailedinves1ga1onneededinordertoobtainanimprovedproductwhencomparedwiththeoriginalGlobSnowSWEClimateDataRecord).

D3.19 Qualitycontrolledversionofsnowdatabase(insitu)(FMI) 36 48 ExtensionallowshigherqualitydeliverableD3.20 HadISDupdate(METO) 12 12 delivered




D4.1 RSbiasadjustments(UNIVIE) 12 20 delivered

D4.2 UpdatedRSbiasadjustments(UNIVIE) 36 48

ERA5andaERA-preSATrerunareexpectedtobemuchbeEerreferencethanpreviousreanalysesbutarenotavailableinmonth36.Valueofdeliverablewouldbesignificantlydegraded

D4.3 QCforobsfromFFCUL(FFCUL) 36 48

FFCULhaddifficul1esinpersonnelrecruitmentandworkshardondigi1za1onofChileanandotherdata.Thishaspriorityfornow.QCaspectwouldimprovealotif12monthsmoreareavailable

D4.4 Visualiza1ontoolforQC(FFCUL) 12 12 deliveredD4.5 QCforupper-air,surface,andsnowobs.(RIHMI) 36 36 TobedeliveredbyendofJanD4.6 Methodologyforquan1fyingobserror(UBERN) 36 36 delivered

D4.7 Verifica1onofprecipita1onagainstGPCC(DWD) 36 48Datasetwillbereadybutvalida1onofERA5,CERA-20Cwouldnotbepossible

D4.8 Globalenergy,water,carboncycles(ECMWF,UNIVIE,UVSQ) 36 48 Evalua1onswithoutERA5,CERA-20Cwouldbemuchlessinnova1veD4.9 Upperairdataqc(UBERN,RIHMI) 24 24 deliveredD4.10 Comparisonwithotherreanalyses(UNIVIE;ECMWF) 36 48 ComparisonswithoutERA5,CERA-20Cwouldbemuchlessinnova1ve

D4.11 Lowfrequencyvariabilityandtrends(ALL) 36 48WithoutcompletedERA5,CERA-20Cmanyevalua1onswouldhavetobebasedondatanotcreatedinERA-CLIM2

D4.12 Uncertaintyofinputparametersforcarbonbudget(UVSQ) 12 20 deliveredD4.13 Confidenceintervalsoncarbonfluxes(UVSQ) 36 48 Thosewouldhavetobebasedonexis1ngERA-20C,notnewCERA-20C

D4.14ComparisonofCTESSEL,ORCHIDEEfluxes1mates(ECMWF,UVSQ,UNIVIE) 36 48

ThiscouldbedonepartlywithunfinishedCERA-20CbutmuchvaluewouldbeaddedifcompleteCERA-20Csetwereavailable


Projectstatus:deliverablesWP5-WP6-WP9


D5.1 NetCDFinMARS 12 30 Design,specifica1onsandtechnicalworkcompleted.

D5.2 CERAdataservices 24 48

Consolida1onofdataintouserversioninprogress.Monthlymeansreleased.Expectedcomple1onformonth48,asinrevisedplananddiscussedduringtheM27ReviewMee1ng.

D5.3 Reportondataservices 24 48

TechnicalworkcompletebasedonERA-20C.D5.3willreportondataservicesforyear2017.xpectedcomple1onformonth48,asinrevisedplananddiscussedduringtheM27ReviewMee1ng.

D6.1 Projectwebsite 10 10 deliveredD6.2 Projectbrief1 12 12 deliveredD6.3 Workshopreport1 19 19 deliveredD6.4 Projectbrochure 22 36 ExpectedinM39D6.5 Policybrief2 24 36 TobedeliveredbyendofJanD6.6 Workshopreport2 31 31D6.7 Policybrief3 36 48D6.8 Dissemina1onplan 4 4 deliveredD6.9 Policybrief4 n/a 48 D9.1 Coordina1onplan 36 48D9.2 Commonwebpage 6 6 deliveredD9.3 Commonlessonslearned 24 24 deliveredD9.4 Mee1ngminutes 36 48


ECMWF,FP7andC3Sreanalysesproduc[on

20212020201920182017201620152014

ERA-Interim&ERA-Interim/Land(1979-todate)

ERA-20CERA-CLIM

ERA-CLIM2 CERA-20C CERA-SAT

NEWH2020CALL?

ERA5(1979-todate)C3S

CERA100(conven,omalobs,1918-2018)???

ERA6(1979-todate)C3Sin2019/20

ECMWF

ECMWF

ORA-S5(Oceanandsea-ice,¼deg,z75)–1979-..


ForthcomingERA-CLIM2mee[ngs

ERA-CLIM2WSsandGAs:§  16-18Jan2017:ERA-CLIM23rdGeneralAssembly(Univ.ofVienna)§  19Jan2017:ERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Univ.ofVienna)§  12-14Dec2017-ERA-CLIM24thGeneralAssembly(Univ.ofBern;Switzerland)§  15Dec2017(am)-M48ReviewMee1ng(Univ.ofBern;Switzerland)

RelatedWSs/Seminars/Conferences:§  97thAMSAnnualMee1ng(22-26Jan2017;SeaEle,US)§  EGUMee1ng(23-28Apr2017;Vienna,Austria)§  ECMWFAnnualSeminaron‘Ensemblepredic1on:past,presentandfuture’(Reading,UK)§  5thInterna1onalConferenceonReanalysis(ICR5;13-19Nov2017;Rome,Italy)


M27ReviewMee[ngRecommenda[ons

R1.Furtherar1culatetechnicallyandthema1callytherela1onshipbetweenERA-CLIM2capability&productsandthoseofC3S–toop1mizethecurrentandfutureimpactofR&Dintoopera1onalservicesØ  TheERA-CLIM2Teamisac1velyworkingwiththeC3STeamatarangeoflevels

(knowledgeandexper1seexchanges;technicallevel;outreach).Ø  Datarescued/re-processedwithinERA-CLIMandERA-CLIM2areusedintheproduc1onof

ERA5(thenewC3SreanalysisthatwillreplaceERA-Interim)and/orwillbeusedinERA6Ø  CERA-SATandERA5willbecomparedfortheoverlappingperiod(2008-2016),andwill

providevaluableindica1onsforthenextC3SreanalysisØ  WARNING:thereisaneedforfurtherH2020-fundedR&DtopreparethenextC3Sre-

analysis(data-rescue,data-processing,DA-methodologies,..)



R2.Consolidatetheestablishmentofacon1nuouscyclefortheproduc1onofreanalyses,emphasizingtotheexternalworldthatR&Dreanalysis(ERA-CLIM2)andopera1onalreanalyses(C3S)arethetwofacesofthesamecoin,andthatR&Disafundamentalprerequisitetoopera1onsØ  Produc1onconsolida1onin-fieri(seeegearlierslide14)Ø  H2020R&Dfundingareneededtocon[nuetoprogressinreanalysisproduc[on:

withoutacon[nuousR&Dac[vity,futureopera[onal(C3S)reanalyseswillnotcon[nuetoimprove,neitherinqualitynorinscope

Ø  ERA5andCERA-20CarehostedintheMARSsystem.ThePublicDatasetsinterfacetothearchiveshowscurrentlybothentries,see:hEp://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/However!Theinterfaceforselec1onoffieldswillbedifferent.ForCERA-20Cwewillfollowthesameaspreviousre-analysis(ERA-Interim,etc...).ForERA5theideaistomakeitavailableviatheCopernicusClimateDataStore(CDS).OncetheCDSisavailable,wewillremovetheERA5entryfromthePublicDatasetsinterface.



R3.Takerelevantmeasures(e.g.involveexternalrela1onsexperts)toop1mizecommunica1onaboutthenatureofERA2productsandtheirlimita1onsandinherentuncertain1es(forinstanceinthetropics).Developtext,diagrams,webinterfacesasappropriate.Makesurethereisguidanceforusersregardingwhichproductshouldbeusedforwhichapplica1on.Ø  Workhasbeenprogressingwelltowardsachievingtheseobjec1ves,asdocumentedby

theGA3presenta1onsØ  NowthatCERA-20Cstartbeingavailable,publica1onsarebeingplannedtodocumentthe

qualityofCERA-20C(resultspresentedatGA3suggeststhatissuperiortotheotherclimatereanalyses(ERA-20CandNOAA-20CR)

Ø  Newdiagnos1csandvalida1ontoolsarebeingdevelopedØ  A‘UserSupport’ac1vityisbeingestablishedatECMWFtohelpaccessanddata-retrival

(synergieswithC3S)



R4.Reinforceessen1alinterna1onalcoopera1ontotakemaximumstockoflong-rangereanalysesperformedbyotherregions/countriesinthepastdecade(regardingobserva1on-rescueaswellascoupled-assimila1on-systems’development)Ø  WorktoachievethishasbeenprogressingØ  ERA-CLIM2fundedreanalyses(CERA-20CandtheforthcomingCERA-SAT)arebeing

adver1sedatConferences(e.g.EuropeanGeophysicalUnionGeneralMee1ng2016and2017;EuropeanMeteorologicalSocietyAnnualMee1ng2016;AmericanMeteorologicalSocietyAnnualMee1ng2016and2017;..)

Ø  Publica1onsarebeingpublishedandpreparedbothforpeer-reviewedjournalsandforopenly-availablepublica1ons(egECMWFNewsleEer,UniversityInternalReports,..)

Ø  Interna1onalcoopera1onincommunica1on/outreachac1vi1es:Ø  ERA-CLIM2co-sponsoredtheInt.ConfonCoupledDAØ  ERA-CLIM2Coordinatorhasbeenaskedtoco-chairtheScien1ficOrganizingCommiEeeofthe

5thInterna1onalConferenceinReanalysis(Rome,Nov2017;ICR4washeldatNOAAin2012)



R5.Sustainefforts(indirectlythroughinterna1onalnetworksordirectlythroughsupporttoselectedgroupsorindividuals)torescuedatathatisatriskofbeinglost.Iden1fywhicharethehighriskobserva1onsonwhichtofocus.Ø  ERA-CLIM2hasbeeninvolvedinthiswork,butmorehastobedoneØ  H2020R&Dfundingareneededtocon[nuebothdata-rescueac[vityanddatare-

processingac[vi[es:newdataarecon[nuouslyfound,newproblems(egbreakpoints)indataseriesthatarecon[nuouslydiscoveredneedtobeaddressed;newmethodsarebeingtestedandcouldbeusedinthefuture:withoutacon[nuousac[vity,futurereanalyseswillnotcon[nuetoimprove(inqualityandscope)



R6.Consideraddingdynamically-meaningfulvariables(suchasPoten1alVor1cityonrelevantisentropicsurfaces)tothelistofmetricscurrentlyusedtoevaluatereanalysisproducts;Interactwithresearchexpertsasappropriate.Ø  Thistypeofvariableshavebeenadded(PVandPTlevelsarchivedandavailable)

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ERA-CLIM2 M36 Review Meeting - ECMWF · ERA-CLIM2 M36 Review Mee1ng (Wien, 16-18 Jan 2017) ... s1ll...

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