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1 Estimating Summertime Evapotranspiration Across Indiana Principal Investigators: Johnny Nykiel Undergraduate Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science Ryan Knutson Undergraduate Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science Jesse Steinweg-Woods Ph.D. student Texas A&M University Department of Atmospheric Science Ken Scheeringa Associate State Climatologist Dr. Dev Niyogi Associate Professor of Agronomy and Earth & Atmospheric Sciences and Indiana State Climatologist First Submission: July 2011 Second Submission: July 2012
Transcript

1

Estimating Summertime Evapotranspiration Across Indiana

Principal Investigators:

Johnny Nykiel

Undergraduate Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science

Ryan Knutson

Undergraduate Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science

Jesse Steinweg-Woods

Ph.D. student Texas A&M University Department of Atmospheric Science

Ken Scheeringa

Associate State Climatologist

Dr. Dev Niyogi Associate Professor of Agronomy and Earth & Atmospheric Sciences

and Indiana State Climatologist

First Submission: July 2011

Second Submission: July 2012

2

Abstract

Evapotranspiration (ET) describes the sum of plant transpiration and evaporation into the

atmosphere from soils. This is a critical component of the regional water cycle. Yet historical

measurements of ET do not exist in Indiana. Therefore, models are needed to develop ET

estimates. It is anticipated that using these models with verification from limited ET

measurements, the development of an Indiana ET climatology can be completed.

ET gages were installed at two Purdue Agricultural Centers (PAC) in the 2008 growing

season and nine PAC locations in the 2009 and 2010 growing seasons over a grass “reference”

vegetative surface. Comparisons were made between these reference ET (RefET) measurements

and several RefET models. The model weather inputs included temperature, solar radiation,

wind, and dew point temperature. Solar radiation serves as a proxy for net radiation which is not

measured at the PAC. The comparisons were divided into two categories. The first compared

RefET measurements with the simulation models when all measured weather inputs were taken

at the PAC sites. The second category of comparisons focused on model weather inputs

observed at nearby airports. These locations were determined by the proximity of the airport to

the RefET gage location at the PAC. Six airport locations were used in this study. The airports

and the paired RefET gage PAC include Valparaiso (PPAC), Evansville (SWPAC), Lafayette

(ACRE and TPAC), Cincinnati (SEPAC), Fort Wayne (NEPAC), and Muncie (DPAC).

A correlation analysis was undertaken comparing the measured and modeled RefET. In

both study categories, 11 separate models were run to calculate RefET to compare with the

RefET gage measurements. The results suggest the FAO 56 Penman-Monteith and Full ASCE

Penman-Monteith model performed best compared to the measurements. Depending on crop

type, the typical RefET rates for a growing season across Indiana are approximately 75 mm per

month or about 45 mm of crop ET loss per month.

Keywords: ET, Evapotranspiration, evaporation, transpiration, water cycle, RefET

3

1. Introduction

This study expands the initial analysis shown in Niyogi et al. (2008): by increasing the

data set to nine locations throughout Indiana in the 2009 and 2010 seasons. These locations are

PPAC, NEPAC, TPAC, ACRE, DPAC, SEPAC, SIPAC, FPAC and SWPAC, 8 of which are

shown in Fig. 1. ACRE, which is not considered a PAC but instead an Agronomy Center, is

located 7 miles to the northwest of Purdue University’s main campus in West Lafayette. By

expanding the locations, the development of a true statewide ET climatology can be performed.

The climatology contrasts two methods: (1) empirical measurements based on a new network of

ET sensors installed at the regional Purdue Agricultural Research Centers (PACs) and the local

Agricultural Center for Research and Education (ACRE) weather stations; and (2) estimates from

a suite of simulation models (RefET) derived from other measured weather inputs.

Figure 1. Location of Purdue Agricultural Centers (PAC)

4

1.1. What is Reference Evapotranspiration?

Evaporation is a form of vaporization in which a liquid is converted into a gas or vapor.

On the other hand, transpiration is the process in which there is a loss of water vapor from the

plant’s stomata. Often these occur together in nature and are referred to as evapotranspiration

(ET), that is, it includes both the evaporation and transpiration components. The rate of ET is

highly regulated by plant and growth stage. To allow general application to many crop types, ET

measurements are referenced to a standard crop, either grass or alfalfa. According to Niyogi et al

(2008), international criteria have been set to define what a standard crop of grass and alfalfa are.

The standard crop is an extensive surface of clipped grass or alfalfa that is well-watered and fully

shades the ground. The clipped grass reference should be a cool-season variety such as perennial

fescue or rye grass. Alfalfa that is greater than 30 cm in height and has full ground cover

complies with the reference standard. In common usage the suggested height of the standard

alfalfa crop is fixed at 50 cm.

The term RefET (Reference ET) is defined as ET measurements for these standard crops.

According to Niyogi et al (2008), “in order to apply RefET results to all other non-standard

crops, multiplier crop coefficients (K) have been developed to convert the reference data to each

alternate crop and growth stage. Two sets of coefficients are available for each non-standard

crop: one for conversion from a grass reference crop and the second set for an alfalfa reference

crop. Only one of these sets of K is necessary depending on which standard crop exists in the

immediate areas of the atmometer installation.”

2. Materials and Methods An atmometer was used in this study to directly measure RefET. The gage used was the

modified Bellani Plate type, manufactured by ET Gage Company of Loveland, Colorado. Figure

2 and 3 show the ETgage with its ceramic plate mounted on top of the distilled water reservoir.

The reservoir capacity is 11.8 inches in depth. A green canvas (Gore-Tex) material covers the

ceramic plate. This canvas fabric mimics the absorption of incoming solar radiation and outgoing

water loss as if it were the crop canopy.

5

Fig. 2-3. ETgage installation at ACRE (Purdue Ag Center for Research and Education)

The type of canvas cover can be changed to simulate the RefET rate of one of the two

standard reference crops, either full-cover alfalfa (lucerne) or clipped cool-season grass. The

canvas covering creates a diffusion barrier (resistance) that controls the evaporation rate, thus

simulating the rate of evaporation from a healthy leaf in a well-watered plant.

Water is drawn to the ceramic plate of the ETgage by suction through a plastic tube

which runs inside the length of the reservoir. A rubber stopper connects the plastic tubing at the

top of the reservoir to the ceramic plate, creating a vacuum allowing water to flow upward only.

The upward vacuum pressure keeps the ceramic cup charged but prevents absorption of

rainwater through the ceramic evaporation plate.

There are manual and electronic versions of ETgage. In the manual model (Model A) the

depth of water inside the ETgage is read from a graduated sight tube. The electronic model

(Model E) also automatically generates a pulse signal every time 0.01 inch of water evaporates

from the ETgage. A data logger can be used to record the pulse signals. The advantage of the

electronic model is the elimination of potential human error when reading the site tube as well as

to provide a detailed record as to when each 0.01 inch of evaporation occurs.

The PACs were set up to use the Model E with the Onset Corporation Hobo pendant

event datalogger as the recording device. In the latter Rice grant the Hobo datalogger at most

PACs was replaced by the Campbell Scientific CR10x dataloggers already extant at these

6

automated weather stations.

In 2007 a first local installation permitted us to become familiar with the operation of the

ETgage and data collection by Onset Corporation Hobo Pendant data loggers. These loggers

only store point data when an ET event occurs, that is, a pulse signal that another .01 inch of ET

has evaporated. As these events are random points in time, the data were assigned to the

corresponding 30 minute time slot during the day in which the event occurred. This was done

for compatibility with the CR10x loggers which would replace most of the Hobo loggers in

2009.

The ETgage was easy to install and required little maintenance. It was mounted on a

wooden post 39 inches (one meter) above the ground, located over grass at a site representative

of the immediate area. The PAC ETgages were installed 3 to 7 feet away from the automated

weather station towers, enabling convenient connection to the data loggers. The ETgage ceramic

plate should not be shaded, which could reduce the RefET rate. Nor should it be installed near

tall trees, buildings, or tall crops that may prevent full exposure of the gauge to prevailing winds

and other environmental factors affecting RefET. The installations at the PAC automated

weather stations were in compliance with these requirements.

The ETgage reservoir was filled with distilled water. This prevents accumulation of salts

in the ceramic plate that could reduce its porosity and affect the evaporation rate. The ETgage

cannot be exposed to freezing temperatures and the canvas cover should be kept as clean as

possible. Bird spikes came with the ETgage to discourage birds from perching on the plate.

Two more installations were added in 2008, one at NEPAC and a second at ACRE.

These installations are co-located with official NWS cooperative weather stations. The ACRE

site is also equipped with a Class A evaporation pan. Again the PACs were set up to use the

ETgage Model E with the Hobo data logger as the recording device.

ET gages were installed at nine Purdue Agricultural Centers (PAC) in the 2009 and 2010

growing seasons to extend the data record and expand the RefET network statewide.. At this

time the Hobo data logger at most PACs were replaced by the Campbell Scientific CR10x data

loggers at these automated weather stations.

7

Estimation of ET for specific crops ((ETc) is calculated by multiplying RefET by the appropriate

crop coefficient Kc:

ETc = ETr x Kc

where ETr is the evapotranspiration (ET) of the reference crop (grass or alfalfa), expressed in

units of water depth per unit time (inches per day, week, etc).

3. Measurements vs. Models 3.1. Measurements

The Hobo pendant logger is designed to record an event and the timestamp at which the

event occurred. An event in our application occurs when the ETgage sends an electronic pulse to

the Hobo logger as each new 0.01 inch of ET evaporates from the canvas cover of the ETgage.

In our case it is easier to analyze the data in uniform time intervals rather than as random events.

With the expectation that in future years the Hobo logger would be replaced with a higher order

data logger, the format change to uniform time intervals made sense.

Our first data task then was to reformat the Hobo data into uniform hourly data intervals.

Software was written to do this conversion by assigning each event to the corresponding hourly

time bin. This was done for each ETgage location where the Hobo data logger was installed.

The ETgage data were summed by calendar day. The hourly and daily ETgage values

were then entered into an Excel spreadsheet. A column was added to the daily table to include

evaporation pan measurements where available.

Unfortunately, the data for the two stations SIPAC and FPAC were frequently missing (in

some cases, over 50% of the time) due to reliability issues with the Hobo loggers that were used

exclusively at these two sites. Because of this, no conclusions could be drawn from these two

stations.

8

3.2. Models

The software title Ref-ET (University of Idaho) offers many calculation models for

estimating reference evapotranspiration using equations currently in practice throughout the

United States and Europe. Figure 4 displays the full list of these models.

Method Timesteps Type a) “full” ASCE Penman-Monteith with resistances by Allen et al, 1989 (M, D, or H)** ETo ETr b) “full” ASCE Penman-Monteith with user supplied surf. resistance (M, D, or H)* ETo ETr c) Standardized form of the ASCE Penman-Monteith by ASCE 2005 (M, D, or H)* ETo ETr d) 1982 Kimberly Penman (Wright, 1982; 1987; 1996) (M, D, or H)* ETo ETr e) FAO 56 Penman-Monteith (1998)1 with resistance for 0.12 m grass (M, D, or H)* ETo f) 1972 Kimberly Penman (fixed wind func.) (Wright & Jensen 1972) (M, D, or H)* ETr g) 1948 or 1963 Penman (Penman, 1948; 1963) (M, D, or H) ETo h) FAO-24 Corrected Penman (Doorenbos and Pruitt, 1975, 1977) (M or D) ETo i) FAO-PPP-17 Penman (Freres and Popov, 1979) (M or D) ETo j) CIMIS Penman (hourly only) with FAO-56 Rn and G=0 (H) ETo k) FAO-24 Radiation Method (Doorenbos and Pruitt, 1975, 1977) (M or D) ETo l) FAO-24 Blaney-Criddle (Doorenbos and Pruitt, 1975, 1977) (M or D) ETo m) FAO-24 Pan Evaporation Method (Doorenbos and Pruitt, 1977) (M or D) ETo n) 1985 Hargreaves Temperature Method (Hargreaves and Samani) (M or D) ETo o) Priestley-Taylor (1972) Radiation and Temperature Method (M or D)* ETo p) Makkink (1957) Radiation and Temperature Method (M or D)* ETo q) Turc (1961) Radiation and Temperature Method (M or D)* ETo Figure 4 – Full list of Calculation Models

In this study, these models were run and the results were compared to the empirical

measurements. Weather inputs used in these models are the hourly data available from the

Purdue automated weather stations. Since the data is run through the software as hourly data, the

models return hourly products. The hourly ET model outputs were then summed into a daily

RefET value for comparison to the actual ET measurements. Not all models were able to produce

data. In some cases, required parameters and other criteria were not available. As a result, only

9

10 models were run for the case 1 study and 11 models for the case 2 study. Details on each case

are described later. The following models did not provide results for either case:

• “full” ASCE Penman-Monteith with user supplied surface resistance

• FAO-24 Corrected Penman (Doorenbos and Pruitt)

• FAO-PPP-17 Penman (Freres and Popov)

• FAO-24 Radiation Method (Doorenbos and Pruitt)

• FAO-24 Blaney-Criddle (Doorenbos and Pruitt)

• FAO-24 Pan Evaporation Method (Doorenbos and Pruitt)

• 1985 Hargreaves Temperature Method

In addition the following model did not provide results in case 1:

• “full” ASCE Penman-Monteith with user supplied surface resistance

3.3. Model Advantages

Why is it important to understand and estimate ET through models?

1. ET plays a major role in the regional water cycle balance. During drought conditions,

evapotranspiration continues to deplete the remaining water supply in lakes, streams,

vegetation and soil.

2. ET measurements cannot be made on days with subfreezing temperatures; therefore,

models become the only method for estimating RefET. Although the RefET values

during such subfreezing days are quite low, cold season precipitation does play a major

role in the recharge phase of the water cycle.

3. Models are useful for filling in missing data when measurements become unavailable.

Given good correlation with measurements, models can estimate the results for these

missing data points.

10

3.4. Model Disadvantages

1. RefET models require measured weather inputs; therefore it is necessary to perform

quality assurance on this source data in order to trust model accuracy.

2. Some weather variables are not commonly measured and can be difficult to obtain, such

as solar radiation.

3. Automated weather station maintenance is necessary so they continue working properly

and the technology stays updated. Some common problems can include communication

failures, dead backup batteries, sensor malfunction, and improper refilling of the ETgage.

The installation of the ETgage does require time to install initially and refill in mid-

season.

4. Results

Some questions can now be assessed to determine which model performs best in

determining evapotranspiration under two scenarios or case studies. The first study compared

hourly RefET measurements to simulation models when all weather inputs were present at a

single PAC location. The second study compared measurements to models when model weather

inputs except solar radiation were made at nearby airports.

4.1. Case 1: Hourly RefET measurements and models at the same location.

Regression correlations can be run to compare the models to the observed ETgage data.

In doing so, this can quantify the strength of the relationship between the models and the actual

ETgage data. The correlation results for the years 2009 and 2010 for all locations are shown in

fig. 5-11.

11

Figure 5 – ACRE station correlation results

Figure 6 – NEPAC station correlation results

12

Figure 7 – DPAC station correlation results

Figure 8 – TPAC station correlation results

13

Figure 9 – SEPAC station correlation results

Figure 10 – SWPAC station correlation results

14

Figure 11 – PPAC station correlation results

Case 1 Result Summary:

Most RefET models are in good agreement with the measurements. It is noted that the

TPAC 2009, TPAC 2010, SEPAC 2010, SWPAC 2010, PPAC 2009 and PPAC 2010 data sets

all have significant outliers which skew the R2 values. This is a result of missing data and

problems with the Hobo dataloggers and ETgage measurements. Overall, the FAO 56 Penman-

Monteith and Full ASCE Penman-Monteith models correlated best with the measurements, while

the Priestly-Taylor and the 1972 Kimberly-Penman were the worst performers. In nearly all

comparisons the fitted regressions have slopes greater than one which implies that the models -in

the Case 1 study- tend to overestimate the amount of evapotranspiration.

15

4.2. Case 2: Hourly RefET measurements at PAC and modeled with airport proxy data.

Regression Correlations:

In some regions automated hourly weather measurements are not available. Perhaps they

are within a private network. This absence of weather inputs would prohibit model runs of

RefET estimates. But an airport with public hourly ASOS weather measurements may be

nearby. These inputs might serve as a proxy for model weather inputs when automated weather

station sources are not available. Would such substitution greatly alter the case 1 correlations

between RefET measurements and model outputs? To answer this question a second case study

modeled RefET based on weather variables observed at nearby airports. RefET measurements at

the PACs continued as the standard “true” values. In case 2 the same measurement intervals

apply at each ET gage site as was defined in case 1. These airport correlation results are shown

in Figures 12-18.

Figure 12 – Case 2 correlation results ACRE station

Acre 2009 - LAFModel ID Model Description R2 Regression Equation

1 Full ASCE Penman-Monteith with Allen resistances 0.85 y = 1.0604x + 0.0232 Standardized ASCE Penman-Monteith 0.84 y = 1.099x + 0.02873 ASCE stPM 0.83 y = 1.0937x + 0.03234 FAO 56 Penman-Monteith 0.85 y = 1.0836x + 0.0265 1996 Kimberly-Penman 0.78 y = 1.1918x + 0.0346 1972 Kimberly-Penman 0.73 y = 1.1759x + 0.04177 1948 Penman 0.81 y = 1.2048x + 0.04068 CIMIS Penman 0.81 y = 1.2071x + 0.04039 Priestly-Taylor 0.80 y = 1.1718x + 0.0338

10 1957 Makkink 0.81 y = 1.0194x + 0.015211 1961 Turc 0.82 y = 1.2753x + 0.0131

Acre 2010 - LAFModel ID Model Description R2 Regression Equation

1 Full ASCE Penman-Monteith with Allen resistances 0.79 y = 0.9739x + 0.03112 Standardized ASCE Penman-Monteith 0.78 y = 1.0156x + 0.03793 ASCE stPM 0.76 y = 1.0136x + 0.044 FAO 56 Penman-Monteith 0.77 y = 0.9817x + 0.03425 1996 Kimberly-Penman 0.72 y = 1.1146x + 0.04096 1972 Kimberly-Penman 0.68 y = 1.058x + 0.05187 1948 Penman 0.73 y = 1.0849x + 0.05098 CIMIS Penman 0.72 y = 1.0959x + 0.05249 Priestly-Taylor 0.65 y = 1.113x + 0.0447

10 1957 Makkink 0.71 y = 0.9266x + 0.027211 1961 Turc 0.74 y = 1.0837x + 0.0328

16

Figure 13 – Case 2 correlation results TPAC station

Figure 14 – Case 2 correlation results with SWPAC station

17

Figure 15 – Case 2 correlation results with DPAC station

Figure 16 – Case 2 correlation results with NEPAC station

18

Figure 17 – Case 2 correlation results with PPAC station

Figure 18 – Case 2 correlation results with SEPAC station

19

Daily ET by month:

The climatology based upon the RefET gage measurements shows a large amount of

variability in cumulative daily ET measurements throughout the month. As can be seen in figures

19-24, the daily ET measurement changes frequently. Since evapotranspiration amounts are

affected by a number of weather variables, this high level of change in ET measurements is not

surprising. ET levels tended to peak in the mid to late spring months, which correlates with

when the state of Indiana receives most of its precipitation.

Figure 19 – Daily ET, May 2009

20

Figure 20 – Daily ET, June 2009

Figure 21 – Daily ET, August 2009

21

Figure 22 – Daily ET, May 2010

Figure 23 – Daily ET, July 2010

22

Figure 24 – Daily ET, September 2010

Typical hourly ET by month:

This climatology shows the diurnal cycle of ET, which has some consistent patterns

regardless of time of year. In figures 25-28, the diurnal cycle of ET is shown in a variety of

months. Most stations began measuring ET sometime between 0900 and 1100 local time. Peak

ET occurred between the hours of 1400 and 1800 which correlates fairly well with maximum sun

exposure. After this peak time period, ET would level off and not resume again until around

0900 the next morning. As stated before, cumulative ET values decreased as the year progressed,

with the most ET occurring in either May or June at most locations.

23

Cumulative ET 2009 ACRE Station

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hour

ET (inch

es) 20-May

20-Jun20-Jul20-Aug20-Sep

Figure 25 – Hourly ET 2009 ACRE station

Cumulative ET 2009 PPAC Station

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hour

ET (inch

es)

20-May20-Jun20-Jul20-Aug

Figure 26 – Hourly ET 2009 PPAC station

24

Cumulative ET 2009 SEPAC Station

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hour

ET (inches)

20-May20-Jun20-Jul20-Aug

Figure 27 – Hourly ET 2009 SEPAC station

Cumulative ET 2009 SWPAC Station

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hour

ET (inches) 20-Apr

20-May20-Jun20-Jul20-Aug

Figure 28 – Hourly ET 2009 SWPAC station

25

Sunny day vs. Cloudy day ET:

For this comparison, a few case days were chosen when the weather was sunny and ones

where there was strong cloud cover. As can be expected, cumulative ET values were

significantly less during cloudy days than sunny days (see Fig. 29-32). During cloudy days,

incoming solar radiation is reduced, resulting in less evaporation of water from surface

temperature increases and usually higher relative humidity values which can inhibit evaporation.

Figure 29 – Sunny day case, August 2009

26

Figure 30 – Sunny day case, July 2009

Figure 31 – Cloudy day case, May 2010

27

Figure 32 – Cloudy day case, September 2010

ET Gage Correlations to Specific Weather Variables:

The models utilized for modeling ET use a variety of input variables. Among these are

incoming solar radiation, air temperature, winds, and relative humidity. It was then investigated

which of these variables had the strongest correlation to the final measured ET value. As can be

seen in figures 33-36, different variables had different correlations to the observed ET data. The

strongest correlation was a negative correlation between relative humidity and ET. As relative

humidity increased, ET tended to decrease and vice versa.

In order to identify a possible correlation, the weather variable data was compared with

the measured ET data for an entire month. Of the weather variables tested, relative humidity had

the strongest correlation with a R2 value of 0.446. The weakest correlation was air temperature

with the R2 value at 0.340, although this correlation was positive unlike relative humidity.

28

Observing the pattern of relative humidity over the course of the diurnal cycle, it became

clear that ET started to begin about the same time relative humidity began to decrease. The

greater the rate at which relative humidity decreased, the greater the rate ET increased (see Fig.

37). Consequently, when relative humidity stopped decreasing, the rate of ET slowed. Thus,

changes in relative humidity can be used as a rough proxy for predicting changes in ET over the

diurnal cycle.

May 2009 ET vs Relative Humidity ACRE Station

y = -0.0002x + 0.0191

R2 = 0.446

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Relative Humidity (%)

ET (inches)

Figure 33 – Relative Humidity correlation with ET

29

May 2009 ET vs Solar Radiation ACRE Station

y = 0.0036x + 0.0021

R2 = 0.3717

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Solar Radiation (MJ/m^2)

ET (in

ches

)

Figure 34 – Solar Radiation correlation with ET

May 2009 ET vs Air Temperature ACRE Station

y = 0.0004x - 0.0196

R2 = 0.3396

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Temp (F)

ET (inches)

Figure 35 – Air Temperature correlation with ET

30

May 2009 ET vs Bare Soil Temperature ACRE Station

y = 0.0004x - 0.0239

R2 = 0.3779

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Bare Soil Temp (F)

ET (inch

es)

Figure 36 – Bare Soil Temperature correlation with ET

Relative Humidity and Cumulative ET May 20 2009 ACRE Station

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hours

Inches*100/%

ET

Relative Humidity

Figure 37 – Comparison of Relative Humidity and Cumulative ET

31

ETgage vs. pan evaporation:

This study also examined RefET gage measurements vs. pan evaporation. A sampling of

regressions shows that there is little correlation between these variables. This is due in part to the

fact that pan evaporation only measures free water evaporation into the atmosphere. The RefET

gage simulates both atmospheric evaporation and water loss through plant transpiration. The

ability of a leaf to open and close its stomata regulates the amount of water allowed to leave the

plant. The evaporation pan has no such restriction and simulates an unlimited supply of water

available for evaporation. Therefore the ETgage and pan evaporation do not correlate well as

shown in the above graphs (Fig. 38-44).

Figure 38 – PPAC 2009 Pan and ET correlation

32

Figure 39 – ACRE 2009 Pan and ET correlation

Figure 40 – PPAC 2009 Pan and ET correlation

33

Figure 41 – ACRE 2010 Pan and ET correlation

Figure 42 – DPAC 2009 Pan and ET correlation

34

Figure 43 – DPAC 2010 Pan and ET correlation

Figure 44 – SIPAC 2010 Pan and ET correlation

35

ET after a rainfall event:

Plots were made of rainfall events versus the temporary suspension of RefET among all

PAC locations. It may be possible to assess the lapse in time between the end of a rain event and

the resumption of RefET (Fig. 45-48). This relationship may be helpful in determining the

duration of leaf wetness after various intensities of rainfall. This is an important factor in the

potential development of leaf diseases.

Figure 45 – NEPAC 2009 rain event

36

Figure 46 – SWPAC 2009 rain event

Figure 47 – ACRE 2009 rain event

37

In general we find that evapotranspiration resumes 7 to 9 hours after the conclusion of a

rainfall event. This is shown in the graphs above.

5. Conclusion

Two case studies were presented. The first study compared RefET measurements to

models when all weather inputs were observed at the same location. The second case study

considered impacts on the results when weather inputs for the models were moved from the

RefET measurement location to a nearby airport. In each of the cases 15 ET models were run to

estimate RefET for comparison to the RefET gage measurements. The RefET measurements

were considered the ground truth values while the model data were treated as the estimates. The

second case study shows comparable results to the first study, with only slightly reduced R2

values. This is to be expected, as the airport data is technically off-site. However, the results

show that the decrease in model performance is very minor, which suggests using proximity data

for modeling ET would be adequate. Figures 5-11 summarize the results of the first study, while

figures 12-18 summarize the results of the second study.

As can be seen from the first study results, the performance of the models decreased

significantly in 2010 compared to 2009 at most locations. 2009 was a year with greater levels of

precipitation than average, while 2010 was a very dry year. It is possible the models do not

perform correctly for unusually dry situations, but further investigation would be necessary to

find out why the model performance decreased.

Investigating the performance variance of the best model at each station, the R2 value

ranges from a low of 0.4207 for SEPAC 2010 to a high of 0.9112 for SEPAC 2009. The SEPAC

2010 shows the limitations of only having modeled values. These models tended to overestimate

ET, depending on the slope of the linear regression line. This slope varied from a minimum of

0.6952 for SWPAC 2010 to a maximum of 1.0967 for NEPAC 2009 among the strongest

performing models.

38

If modeled values alone were used, locations such as NEPAC would have a significant

overestimation of ET based upon the data in this report. Because of this, adding ET gages would

be recommended to reduce this bias. It is possible the bias could be reduced through MOS

(Model Output Statistics) techniques, but this would have to be applied on an individual station

basis as accuracy varies widely from station to station. Even in the case of SEPAC, were MOS to

be applied, it may not work properly due to the wide swings from year to year. Although these

swings were primarily due to missing data, having an ET gage would correct this problem.

At sites where the correlation coefficient varied little from year to year (such as DPAC),

it may be possible to get away with not having an ET gage and simply rely on MOS bias

adjustments alone. If funding is not an issue, however, this study recommends ET gages at all

sites. An accurate ET measurement would make these gages especially necessary at stations like

SEPAC where there are wide swings in accuracy of the model from year to year.

6. Additional Products In addition to this report, the authors are also developing a website that can be utilized for

current ET information. Users will be able to input their location by county, along with the

desired planting date, crop type, and optional local precipitation levels. Based upon this

information, the website will be able to tell the user the overall water balance left for their crop

to date. This would be a very useful tool for farmers who need to keep track of how much water

their crops have.

The website utilizes RefET information calculated from the model outputs or local ET

sensor depending on location. Once the RefET has been defined, a coefficient is utilized

depending on the crop type and age. This overall ET is then balanced with the precipitation to

date in order to give a sense of overall water balance. The website will be available at the Indiana

State Climate Office’s site (iclimate.org).

A second product will be a CD-ROM copy of this report and all of the associated figures

and tables produced by this project. This copy is intended for users who wish to go into more

detailed analysis of the results included in this report. The actual measurements from the ET

gages and other associated instrumentation will be included here.

39

References

Niyogi, Dev, Scheeringa, Ken, 2009: Estimating Evapotranspiration Across Purdue Agricultural Research Centers.

Colorado State University Cooperative Extension, AGRONOMY NEWS, Vol. 19, JUNE 1999.

"REF-ET Reference Evapotranspiration Software." University of Idaho Kimberly R&E Center. Web. <http://www.kimberly.uidaho.edu/ref-et/>.


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