Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme: Lessons from 10 years of evaluation John HoddinottCornell University

The Future of Ethiopia’s Agriculture: Towards a Resilient System to End

Hunger and Undernutrition

Addis Ababa HiltonDecember 15, 2017Addis Ababa

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Introduction

• Beginning in 2005, the Government of Ethiopia with support from its development partners has implemented the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)

• Outside of South Africa, the PSNP is the largest social protection program in sub-Saharan Africa

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Introduction

This presentation has three objectives:

1. Overview of the PSNP

2. Assess aspects of its performance in the first 10 years of operation (Phases 1, 2 and 3)

3. Comment on its potential to contribute to ending hunger and malnutrition in Ethiopia

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PSNP (2006-2015) Overview

1. Targeted geographically (food insecure woredas in the Highlands) and targeted individually (chronically food insecure households within these woredas)

2. Most (~85 percent) of beneficiaries undertake public works employment building community assets. Some (~15 percent) receive unconditional transfers called direct support.

3. Payments are in cash or in-kind but increasingly in cash

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PSNP Overview

4. Complementary programs exist to increase incomes from agricultural and non-agricultural sources but up to 2015 these were limited in scope

5. Expanded to the Lowlands in 2010

6. Bi-annual longitudinal household surveys conducted in 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014 (covering PSNP Phases 1, 2, 3)

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Assessing PSNP performance

By its core objectives:

1. Target chronically food insecure households

2. Close the food gap

3. Prevent asset depletion

4. Build community assets of value

Additional considerations

1. Have there been adverse impacts?

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Assessing performance: Targeting

1. The PSNP uses a mix of geographic and community-based targeting to identify chronically food insecure households in chronically food insecure woredas.

2. Generally, targeting performance has been good in the Highlands but poor in the Lowlands

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Targeting (Highlands):Probability of selection into PSNP, 2006

48%

34%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very poor

Moderately poor

Well-off

Very poor: 3+ months food insecurity; 10th percentile of land and livestock holdings; widow; cannot access 100 birr in emergency

Well-off: No food insecurity; 90th percentile of land and livestock holdings

Moderately poor: 1-2 months of food insecurity; 25th percentile of land and livestock holdings; cannot access 100 birr in emergency

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Assessing performance: Trends in food gap, PSNP beneficiaries, Highlands

3.09

2.67

3.04

2.04 1.75

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Foo

d G

ap

Survey Year

Spike in global food prices

2009 drought

Major increase in PSNP payments

Every 100 (inflation adjusted) birr in annualPW payments reduces the annual food gap

by 0.2 months

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Trends in livestock holdings (TLU)

2.8

3.13.3 3.2

3.0

0.5

1.71.9

1.6 1.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

TLU

All PSNP PW hh Poorest tercile, PSNP PW hh

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Value of asset holdings

2.8

3.13.3

3.23.0

0.5

1.71.9

1.61.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

TLU

All PSNP PW hh Poorest tercile, PSNP PW hh

No impact on livestockholdings of public works

participants

For poorest 20%, every 100 (inflation adjusted) birr in annualPW payments increased TLU by 0.12

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Building public assets of value:Percent reporting benefitting from PSNP public works, 2014

Road

construction

and

improvements

Water

harvesting

structures

Soil and

water

conservation

on

communal

land

Soil and

water

conservation

on private

land Schools

Health

posts

Tigray 73 46 53 46 58 55

Amhara 77 39 53 53 67 54

Oromia 80 50 54 47 61 55

SNNP 85 39 51 43 64 72

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Additional considerations

• Has the PSNP “crowded out” private transfers?

No evidence this has occurred

• Has the PSNP discouraged out-migration?

No evidence this has occurred for males. Some evidence that it has reduced early marriage of girls

• Has the PSNP increased fertility?

No evidence this has occurred

• Has the PSNP reduced labor supply?

No evidence this has occurred (though data quality is poor)

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Lessons learned and looking forward

• The PSNP has been successful – in the Highlands –in terms of its core objectives

• It has had less success in terms of increasing agricultural and non-agricultural incomes, improving productivity and nutritional status

• Important caveat: The PSNP was never conceived as addressing these by itself

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Lessons learned and looking forward

• Components of PSNP 4 attempt to redress these limitations:

• Incorporating nutrition behavior change communication activities

• Development of complementary livelihood packages

• A resilient system for ending hunger and undernutrition will require that these new components are successful

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Acknowledgements

Co-authors: Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, Guush Berhane, Daniel Gilligan, Kalle Hirvonen, Neha Kumar, Jeremy Lind, Rachel Sabates-Wheeler, Mulugeta Tefera, Yisehac Yohannes

Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency for careful work collecting these data

Funders: World Bank (for funding evaluation studies) and EU (for funding work on this retrospective assessment)