Europe Hyll Quarterly 2013-11-14 Afme Sifma

8/13/2019 Europe Hyll Quarterly 2013-11-14 Afme Sifma

1/22

Prepared in partnership with 2013 Q3

European High Yield &

Leveraged Loan Report


2/22

Market Highlights and Commentary ................................... 11. Leveraged Finance Overview ........................................... 3

1.1. European Leveraged Issuance by Type .............................31.2. European Leveraged Issuance by Percentage ....................31.3. European Leveraged Issuance Average Deal Size .............31.4. Bank Credit Standards .......................................................31.5. Factors Affecting Bank Credit Standards ..........................3

1.6. Loan Demand ....................................................................31.7. Factors Affecting Loan Demand .......................................41.8. Global Comparison High Yield Issuance .......................4

2. Issuance Leveraged Loans ............................................ 52.1. European Leveraged Loan Issuance By Loan Type ..........52.2. European Leveraged Loan Issuance by Industry Sector ....52.3. Forward Pipeline of Leveraged Loan Market ....................52.4. S&P ELLI Total Institutional Loans Outstanding .............52.5. S&P ELLI Ratings Diversification ....................................52.6. Leveraged Loan Secondary Market Bids ..........................52.7. Institutional and Pro Rata Spreads .....................................62.8. Mezzanine Spread .............................................................6

3. Issuance High Yield Bonds Overview ........................ 73.1. European HY Bond Issuance, Developed and Emerging

Market ..............................................................................73.2. European HY Bond Issuance, Sponsored vs. Corporate ....73.3. European Corporate Bonds Outstanding ...........................73.4. European Corporate Bonds Maturity Wall ........................73.5. European Corporate HY Bonds Outstanding By Sector ....73.6. European Corporate HY Bonds Outstanding by Current

Rating ...............................................................................73.7. European Corporate Bond Issuance by Rating ..................83.8. European Corporate Bond Issuance by Tenor ...................83.9. European HY Use of Proceeds ..........................................83.10. European HY Issuance, Secured Share ...........................8

4. Issuance European Developed Market High Yield

Bonds ............................................................................................ 8

4.1. European Developed Market HY Bond Issuance ..............84.2. European Developed Market HY Issuance by Currency ...84.3. European Developed Market HY Issuance by Industry .....94.4. European Developed Market HY Issuance by Country of

Risk ..................................................................................94.5. European Developed Market HY Issuance, Fixed vs.

Floating ............................................................................94.6. European Developed Market HY Issuance, Sponsored vs.

Corporate ..........................................................................94.7. European Developed Market HY Rating Distribution at

Issuance ............................................................................94.8. European Developed Market Corporate Bonds

Outstanding ......................................................................94.9. European Developed Market HY Bond Issuance ..............10

5. Issuance European Emerging Market High YieldBonds ............................................................................................ 11

5.1. European Emerging Market HY Bond Issuance ................115.2. European Emerging Market HY Bond Issuance by

Currency ...........................................................................115.3. European Emerging Market HY Issuance by Industry ......115.4. European Emerging Market HY Issuance by Country of

Risk ..................................................................................115.5. European Emerging Market HY Issuance, Fixed vs.

Floating ............................................................................11

5.6. European Emerging Market HY Issuance, Sponsored vs.Corporate ......................................................................... 11

5.7. European Emerging Market HY Rating Distribution atIssuance ............................................................................ 12

5.8. European Emerging Market Corporate BondsOutstanding ...................................................................... 12

5.9. Emerging Market HY Bond Issuance ............................... 126. Credit Quality ...........................................................................136.1. European HY Default Rate ............................................... 13

6.2. Developed Europe Issuer Rating Actions ,......................... 136.3. Emerging Europe Issuer Rating Actions,.......................... 136.4. Developed European Industry Rating Actions by $

Amount ............................................................................ 136.5. Emerging European Industry Rating Actions by $

Amount ............................................................................ 136.6. European Defaults ............................................................. 14

7. Relative Value ..........................................................................157.1. European HY Bonds, Cash vs. Synthetic .......................... 157.2. European Leveraged Loans, Cash vs. Synthetic ................ 15

8. Total Return .............................................................................158.1. European HY Bond Total Return ...................................... 15

8.2. European Leveraged Loan Total Return ........................... 158.3. Asset Class Total Return ................................................... 15

Annex .............................................................................................16Disclaimer .....................................................................................19


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European Leveraged Finance, Third Quarter 2013

Highlights and Market EnvironmentHighlights

European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loansand high yield bonds) increased in 3Q13, with 50.04

billion issued, a 10.7% increase quarter-over-quarter(q-o-q) and a 139.8% increase year-over-year (y-o-y).The increase q-o-q stems from the surge in leveragedloan lending, which doubled in issuance, reducing thehigh yield share of the leveraged finance market to39.7%, down from 66.5% in 2Q13.

Leveraged finance issuance year-to-date (YTD) has al-ready reached 154.71 billion, already exceeding thefull years 2012 issuance level (135.30 billion). Whileleveraged loan issuance continues to remain well belowpre-crisis norms, high yield issuance continues to reachnew highs, with YTD issuance of 82.8 billion exceed-

ing the high of 66.1 billion in 2012.Market and Economic Environment

According to the October 2013 European Central Banklending survey, banks reported, on net, a continuedtightening of lending standards in the third quarter,both in long- and short-term loans. The net tightening,however, continues to be at a much lesser degree thanin prior quarters. Industry outlooks and expectationsregarding economic activity continue to contribute themost to net tightening, as they had in the prior quarter,but risk on collateral demanded and bank capital costsalso contributed during in the third quarter. Bank com-petition and bank liquidity contributed the most in eas-

ing lending standards.

Loan demand, however, has continued to fall in thethird quarter, particularly for long-term loans and fromSME borrowing. Debt restructuring continues to be thekey driver of continued loan demand, while fixed in-vestment, internal financing and debt issuance have al-so contributed to reductions in loan demand.

IssuanceIssuance: Leveraged Loans

Leveraged loan issuance surged in the third quarter, atlevels not seen since 3Q08 (40.2 billion). With 30.2billion issued, leveraged loan issuance (including first

lien, second lien, and mezzanine financing) was doublethe prior quarter and nearly five times y-o-y. Amend-and-extend (A&E) transactions continue to takeplace, with less than a fifth of deals in the third quarterstructured as such (19.5%), a decline from the secondquarter (23.4%). According to S&P, the loan pipeline atthe end of September 2013 was 14 million.

In the third quarter, 18 million of mezzanine loans and0.3 billion in second liens were financed. Spreads atpricing for institutional loans tightened by 15.4 basis

points (bps) while spreads for pro rata loans tightenedby 6.2 bps. Mezzanine loan spreads fell by over 300bps.

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13

Basis PointsBasis Points

Source: Dealo gic, AFME, SIFMA

Institutional SpreadsOct. 2008 - Sep. 2013

Widest difference (bps, right)

France

Germany

Netherlands

Spain

United Kingdom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600


Basis Points

Source: Dealo gic, AFME, SIFMA

Pro Rata SpreadsOct. 2008 - Sep. 2013

Widest difference (bps, right)

France

Germany

Netherlands

Spain

United Kingdom

According to Dealogic, the leading sector in leveragedloan issuance for the third quarter of 2013 was tele-

communications (4.4 billion), followed by food &beverage (4.2 billion) and professional services (3.5billion). The largest deal was a 3.3 billion leveragedbuyout transaction from DE Master Blenders 1753.

The share of deals aimed to refinance and/or repay debtfell q-o-q but rose y-o-y, falling to 49.4% of all dealsby euro amount in the third quarter, compared to 70.8%in 2Q13 and 37.7% in 3Q12.

Notably, dividend recapitalisations for loan sponsorspicked up in the third quarter, with six deals totalling3.2 billion used for this purpose.

After the European primary CLO market came to lifein the first and second quarters of 2013, several addi-tional deals were done in the third quarter: Ares Euro-pean CLO 2013-6, Cadogan Square, Carlyle GlobalMarkets Euro CLO, Harvest CLO, HayFin Ruby (a refifrom HayFin I), Herbert Park, Large Corporate One,Rubidio, and St Pauls CLO.

Outside the primary CLO market, 2.4 billion of SMEdeals were completed in the third quarter. However, ina reversal of the prior few years, the majority by euroamount were placed (1.7 billion, or 71.3%), in part in

1

AFME High Yield Division

Third Quarter 2013


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response to the ECBs plan to promote funding in theSME sector. Notably, the first Italian SME deal wasplaced in the third quarter post crisis (Berica PMI Srl).

European CLO outstandings, including SME deals, de-clined by 20.2% on an annualized basis in the thirdquarter, ending September 2013 at 229.3 billion. De-spite the spate of recent European CLO deals, non-SME CLOs still declined, albeit slower than SMEs,shrinking 16.5% on an annualized basis, compared to adecline of 18.1% on an annualized basis for SMECLOs.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2 00 2 2 00 3 2 00 4 2 00 5 2 00 6 2 00 7 2 00 8 2 00 9 2 01 0 2 01 1 2 01 2 2 01 3

Billions

Source: AFME, SI FMA

European CLO Outstanding2001:Q3 - 2013:Q3

SME

Non-SME CLO

Issuance: High Yield Bonds Primary issuance in 3Q13 totalled 19.9 billion on 47

deals, a decline of 33.8% q-o-q but a 28.7% increasefrom 3Q12 (15.5 billion on 42 deals). Both devel-oped market and emerging market Europe issuance fellin the third quarter.

Primary issuance in developed market Europe in thefirst quarter was 17.9 billion on 41 deals, while in

emerging market Europe primary issuance was 2.0billion on 6 deals. Several new issuers entered the highyield market for the first during during 3Q13 (5 issu-ers in developed market Europe and none in emergingmarket Europe).

In 2013, average deal sizes from developed market Eu-rope have begun to swing back up to larger sizes from2012; with an average of 435.3 million per deal in3Q13 (437.9 million for YTD 2013, and 403.0 mil-lion in 2012).

High yield issuance for refinancing and/or repaymentof debt rose slightly q-o-q but fell y-o-y, representing45.7% of all issuance by euro amount in 3Q13, com-pared to 44.8% in 2Q13 and 48.5%, in 3Q12.

Senior secured structures remained absent for a sixthconsecutive quarter among high yield bonds. However,secured structures continue to remain prevalent in highyield deals, representing 20.5% of deals by euroamount in 3Q13 and a little less than a quarter of alldeals year to date in 2013.

The proportion of USD-denominated issuance contin-ued fell in 3Q13, representing 35.1% of all issuance

by euro amount, compared to 43.2% in 2Q13 and38.8% in 3Q12. USD-denominated issuance in emerg-ing market Europe fell to represent 74.6% by euroamount, compared to 91.8% in the previous quarter,while USD-denominated issuance in developed marketEurope rose slightly to 28.6% of all issuance by euroamount from 27.7% in the prior quarter. Year to date,

USD-denominated issuance represents 37.8% of all is-suance.

Returns & Credit Quality Equities led returns in the third quarter, followed by

European high yield (3.7%) and European leveragedloans (2.9%).

High-yield bond default rates fell in the third quarter,with S&P reporting 2.5% (up from 2.8% end-June) andMoodys reporting 3.3% (up from 3.4% end-June).Two defaults were reported in the third quarter,Agroton Public and Codere S.A.

According to S&P, downgrades exceeded upgrades indeveloped market Europe, with 22 upgrades and 39downgrades. The downgrade of the sovereign Italydrove most of the downgrades (Italian banks were 15of the 39 downgrades alone). Upgrades were scatteredacross industries and countries, with small concentra-tions in the Netherlands (5 upgrades) and Germany (4upgrades).

Upgrades exceeded downgrades in emerging marketEurope. S&P downgraded 3 names (2 banks, 1 tele-communication) and upgraded 4 names in emergingmarket Europe.

By dollar amount among emerging market names, utili-ty names led upgrades totals with $5.9 billion upgrad-ed, followed by telecommunications ($5.1 billion).

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Third Quarter 2013


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1. Leveraged Finance Overview1.1. European Leveraged Issuance by Type 1.2. European Leveraged Issuance by Percentage

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

YTD 2012 2013

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3

Billions

Sources: Dealogic, Thomson Reuters LPC

European Leveraged Issuance2006 - 2013:Q3

Leveraged Loans

Europe Developed HY

Europe EM HY

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

YTD 2012 2013

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3

Percentage


European Leve raged Issuance2006 - 2013:Q3

Leveraged Loans

Europe Developed HY

Europe EM HY

1.3. European Leveraged Issuance Average DealSize

1.4. Bank Credit Standards1

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

2012 2013

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3

Billions


European Leveraged Issuance Average Size

2006 - 2013:Q3

Leveraged Loans

Europe Developed HY

Europe EM HY

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13

Net Percentage

Source: ECB

Bank Credit Standards

Oct. 2008 - Oc t. 2013

SME

Large Enterprises

Overall

1.5. Factors Affecting Bank Credit Standards2 1.6. Loan Demand3

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

Competition from Banks

Bank Liquidity Position

Market Financing

Bank Access to Market Fin ancing

Competition from Non-Banks

Costs to Bank Capital Position

Risk on Collateral Demanded

Expectations Regarding Economic Activity

Industry or Firm-Specific Outlook

Net Percentage

Source: ECB

Factors Affecting Bank Credit StandardsOct. 2013

Large Enterprises

SME

Overall

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13

Net Percentage

Source: ECB

Loan DemandOct. 2008 - Oc t. 2013

SME

Large Enterprises

Overall

1A positive net percentage number signifies tightening bank credit; a negative net percentage number signifies easing credit.

2A positive net percentage signifies the factor contributed to tightening credit standards; a negative net percentage signifies the factor contributed to easing credit standards.

3A positive net percentage signifies increased demand; a negative net percentage signifies decreased demand.

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Third Quarter 2013


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1.7. Factors Affecting Loan Demand4

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Fixed Investment

Internal Financing

Debt Issuance

M&A, Restruturing

Equity Issuance

Loans from Non-Banks

Inventories, Working Capital

Loans from Other Banks

Debt Restructuring

Net Percentage

Source: ECB

Factors Affecting Loan DemandOct. 2013

1.8. Global Comparison High Yield Issuance Billions Prior

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full Year 2011

United States 57.9 48.4 52.1 158.3 55.8 30.9 64.8 61.4 212.9 126.7

Asia Pacific 15.3 10.6 4.3 30.2 9.4 4.7 8.5 7.6 30.2 36.5

Europe 36.8 34.4 23.5 94.7 23.7 13.9 18.7 26.5 82.8 66.2

20122013

4A positive net percentage signifies a factor that contributed to higher demand; a negative net percentage signifies a factor that contributed to lower demand.

4


Third Quarter 2013


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2. Issuance Leveraged Loans2.1. European Leveraged Loan Issuance By LoanType

2.2. European Leveraged Loan Issuance by IndustrySector

0

50

100

150

200

250

YTD 2012 2013

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3

Billions

Source: Dealogic, Thomson Reuters LPC

Leveraged Loan Issuance by Loan Type2006 - 2013:Q3

Mezzanine

2nd Lien

1st Lien

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Telecommunications

Food & Beverage

Professional Services

Retail

Chemicals

Computers & Electronics

Publishing

Consumer Products

Utility & Energy

Healthcare

Forestry & Paper

Insurance

Oil & Gas

Dining & Lodging

Construction/Building

Finance

Aerospace

Metal & Steel

EUR Billions

Source: Dealogic

Leveraged Loan Issuance by Industry2013:Q3

2.3. Forward Pipeline of Leveraged Loan Market 2.4. S&P ELLI Total Institutional Loans Outstanding

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13

Billions

Source: Standard & Poor's LCD

Forward Pipeline of Leveraged Loan Market

2011:Q2 - 2013:Q3

Europe

US

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Billions


S&P ELLI Total Institutional Loans Outstanding

2006 - 2013:Q3

2.5. S&P ELLI Ratings Diversification 2.6. Leveraged Loan Secondary Market Bids

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Percentage


S&P ELLI Ratings Diversification2005 - 2013:Q3

NR

Other

B

BB

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13

Bid

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC/SMi

Distribution of EMEA Lev eraged Secondary Loan Market BidsOct. 2010 - Sep. 2013

>100

90-100

80-90

70-80

< 70

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Third Quarter 2013


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2.7. Institutional and Pro Rata Spreads 2.8. Mezzanine Spread

200

250

300

350

400

450

500


Basis Points

Source: Dealog ic, AFME, SIFMA

Institutional and Pro Rata SpreadsOct. 2008 - Sep. 2013

Institutional

Pro Rata

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


Basis Points

Source: Dealog ic, AFME, SIFMA

Mezzanine SpreadOct. 2008 - Sep. 2013

Mezzanine

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Third Quarter 2013


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3. Issuance High Yield Bonds Overview3.1. European HY Bond Issuance, Developed andEmerging Market

3.2. European HY Bond Issuance, Sponsored vs.Corporate

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

YTD 2012 2013

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3

# of Deals Billions


European HY Issuance, Deve loped and Emerging Markets2006 - 2013:Q3

Europe Emerging HY

Europe DevelopedHY

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

YTD 2012 2013

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3

Percentage


European HY Issuance, Sponsored vs Corporate2006 - 2013:Q3

Europe Corporate

Europe LBO

EM Corporate

EM LBO

3.3. European Corporate Bonds Outstanding 3.4. European Corporate Bonds Maturity Wall

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Developed Europe Emerging Europe

Billions

Sources: Bloom berg, AFME, SIFMA

European Corporate Bonds Outstanding, Developed and Emerging

Europe2013:Q3

Non-Rated

High Yield

Investment Grade

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Later

Billions

Source: Bloom berg, AFME, SIFMA

European HY M aturity Wall

2013:Q3

Other Currencies

GBP

USD

EUR

3.5. European Corporate HY Bonds Outstanding BySector

3.6. European Corporate HY Bonds Outstanding byCurrent Rating

Utilities

6%

Technology

2%

Materials

14%

Industrials

5%Health Care

2%

Governments

1%

Financials

35%

Energy

3%

Consumer Staples

3%

Consumer

Discretionary

12%

Communications

17%

Others

0%

European HY Corporate Bonds Outstanding by Sector2013:Q3

Sources: Bloomb erg, AFME, SIFMA

0

50

100

150

200

250

BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC RemainingHY

Billions

Source: Bloom berg, AFME, SIFMA

European HY Outstanding by Current Rating2013:Q3

7


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3.7. European Corporate Bond Issuance by Rating 3.8. European Corporate Bond Issuance by Tenor

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Developed Emerging

EUR Billions

Sources: Bloomberg, Dealogic, Moody's, Standard and Poor's, Fitch Ratings

European HY Issuance by Rating2013:Q3

BB B CCC NA/NR

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0


11/22

4.3. European Developed Market HY Issuance byIndustry

4.4. European Developed Market HY Issuance byCountry of Risk

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0

Utility & Energy

Professional Services

Holding Companies

Transportation

Real Estate/Property

Retail

Machinery

Oil & Gas

Finance

Healthcare

Computers & Electronics

Billions

Source: Dealogic

European Deve loped Market HY Issuance by Industry2013:Q3

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Portugal

Switzerland

Greece

Sweden

Belgium

Finland

Spain

Luxembourg

Norway

Netherlands

Ireland

Italy

United Kingdom

France

Germany

Billions

Source: Dealogic

European Deve loped Market HY Issuance by Country of Risk2013:Q3

4.5. European Developed Market HY Issuance,Fixed vs. Floating

4.6. European Developed Market HY Issuance,Sponsored vs. Corporate

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

YTD 2012 2013

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3

Billions

Source: Dealogic

European Deve loped Market HY Bond Issuance, Fixed vs Floating

2006 - 2013:Q3

Floating

Fixed

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

YTD 2012 2013

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3

Billions

Source: Dealogic

European Deve loped Market HY Issuance, Sponsored vs Corporate

2006 - 2013:Q3

Europe LBO

Europe Corporate

4.7. European Developed Market HY Rating Distribu-tion at Issuance

4.8. European Developed Market Corporate BondsOutstanding

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Dealogic, AFME/SIFMA

European Developed Market HY Rating Distrbution at Issuance2010:Q2 - 2013:Q3

NA/NR CCC B BB

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Developed Europe

Billions


European Corporate Bonds Outstanding, Developed Europe2013:Q3

Investment Grade

High Yield

Non-Rated

9


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4.9. European Developed Market HY Bond Issuance

Issuer Industry Group Date Currency

Amount

(Millions) Coupon Moodys S&P Fitch

Fiat Finance & Trade Ltd SA Auto/Truck 09/07/2013 EUR 850 6.750 B1 BB- BB-

Continental AG Auto/Truck 09/07/2013 EUR 750 3.000 Baa3 BB+ BBB

Grand City Properties SA Real Estate/Property 09/07/2013 EUR 100 6.250 BB-

Unilabs SubHolding AB Healthcare 10/07/2013 EUR 130 3M EURIBOR + 725 B3 B

355 8.500 B3 BUnilabs Midholding AB Healthcare 10/07/2013 EUR 200 12.000 Caa2 CCC+

Vougeot Bidco plc Real Estate/Property 11/07/2013 EUR 290 3M EURIBOR + 525 B2 B

GBP 300 7.875 B2 B

Expro Finance Luxembourg SCA Oil & Gas 11/07/2013 USD 100 8.500 B1 B

Findus Bondco SA Food & Beverage 12/07/2013 EUR 305 9.125 B3 B- B+

GBP 150 9.500 B3 B- B+

Mercer International Inc Forestry & Paper 17/07/2013 USD 50 9.500 B3 B

Marlin Intermediate Holdings plc Finance 18/07/2013 GBP 150 10.500 B2 B

Schaeffler Holding Finance BV Machinery 18/07/2013 EUR 800 6.875 B1 B

USD 1,000 6.875 B1 B

Magnolia (BC) SA Retail 22/07/2013 EUR 325 9.000 B2 B

Salini SpA Construction/Building 23/07/2013 EUR 400 6.125 BB- BB

Travelex Financing plc Finance 24/07/2013 GBP 150 3M LIBOR + 600 B2 B

GBP 200 8.000 B2 B

Gamenet SpA Leisure & Recreation 25/07/2013 EUR 200 7.250 B1 B+

Picard Groupe SAS Food & Beverage 25/07/2013 EUR 480 3M EURIBOR + 425 Ba3 BB- BB

Manutencoop Facility Management SpA Construction/Building 26/07/2013 EUR 425 8.500 B2 B+

Aguila 3 SA Transportation 30/07/2013 USD 390 7.875 B2 B

S&B Industrial Minerals SA Mining 30/07/2013 EUR 275 9.250 B3 B+

Alcatel-Lucent USA Inc Telecommunications 31/07/2013 USD 500 8.875 B3 CCC+

Intralot Finance Luxembourg SA Computers & Electronics 01/08/2013 EUR 325 9.750 B1 B+ BB-

Playa Resorts Holding BV Holding Companies 05/08/2013 USD 300 8.000 Caa1 B-

ConvaTec Finance International SA Healthcare 06/08/2013 USD 900 8.250 Caa1 B-

Springer Science+Business Media AG Publishing 06/08/2013 EUR 640 3M EURIBOR + 800

NXP BV Computers & Electronics 10/09/2013 USD 500 3.500 B3 B+

Peugeot SA Auto/Truck 10/09/2013 EUR 600 6.500 B1 BB-

Renault SA Auto/Truck 11/09/2013 EUR 600 3.625 Ba1 BB+ BB+

Fiat Finance & Trade Ltd SA Auto/Truck 12/09/2013 EUR 400 6.750 B1 BB- BB-

Activision Blizzard Inc Computers & Electronics 12/09/2013 USD 750 6.125 Ba2 BB+

USD 1,500 5.625 Ba2 BB+

EDU UK BondCo plc Professional Services 12/09/2013 GBP 205 8.875 B3 B-Commerzbank AG Finance 12/09/2013 USD 1,000 8.125 Ba2 BB+

FHW Dalmore (Salford Pendleton Housing) plc Real Estate/Property 12/09/2013 GBP 11 8.350

GBP 72 5.414

Phosphorus HoldCo plc Retail 18/09/2013 GBP 205 10.000 Caa2 CCC+

Hapag-Lloyd AG Transportation 20/09/2013 EUR 250 7.750 Caa1 B-

Lafarge SA Construction/Building 20/09/2013 EUR 750 4.750 Ba1 BB+ BB+

SeaDrill Ltd Oil & Gas 20/09/2013 USD 500 6.125

Jerrold FinCo plc Finance 20/09/2013 GBP 200 9.750 B+ B+

Abengoa Finance SAU Construction/Building 24/09/2013 EUR 250 8.875 B2 B B+

Veneto Banca ScpA Finance 25/09/2013 EUR 300 4.250 BB BB

Avanti Communications Group plc Telecommunications 26/09/2013 USD 370 10.000 Caa1 B

PIK (Payment in Kind); Debut issue Source: Bloomberg, Dealogic

10


Third Quarter 2013


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5. Issuance European Emerging Market High Yield Bonds5.1. European Emerging Market HY Bond Issuance 5.2. European Emerging Market HY Bond Issuance

by Currency

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

YTD 2012 2013

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3

# of Deals Billions

Source: Dealogic

European Emerging Market HY Bond Issuance2006 - 2013:Q3

Europe EmergingHY# of Deals (Right)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

YTD 2012 2013

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3

Billions

Source: Dealogic

European Emerging Market HY Issuance by Currency2006 - 2013:Q3

Other

USD

GBP

EUR

5.3. European Emerging Market HY Issuance by In-dustry

5.4. European Emerging Market HY Issuance byCountry of Risk

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5

Transportation

Oil & Gas

Metal & Steel

Food & Beverage

Mining

Telecommunications

Finance

Billions

Source: Dealogic

European Emerging Market HY Issuance by Industry2013:Q3

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Czech Republic

Bulgaria

Georgia

Ukraine

Croatia

Poland

Russian Federation

Billions

Source: Dealogic

European Emerging Market HY Issuance by Country of Risk2013:Q3

5.5. European Emerging Market HY Issuance, Fixedvs. Floating

5.6. European Emerging Market HY Issuance, Spon-sored vs. Corporate

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

YTD 2012 2013

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3

Billions

Source: Dealogic

European Emerging Market HY Bond Issuance, Fixed vs Floating2006 - 2013:Q3

Floating

Fixed

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

YTD 2012 2013

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3

Billions

Source: Dealogic

European Emerging Market HY Issuance, Sponsored vs Corporate2006 - 2013:Q3

EM LBO

EM Corporate

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5.7. European Emerging Market HY Rating Distribu-tion at Issuance

5.8. European Emerging Market Corporate BondsOutstanding

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Dealogic, AFME/SIFMA

European Emerging Market HY Rating Distrbution at Issuance2010:Q2 - 2013:Q3

NA/NR CCC B BB

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Emerging Europe

Billions


European Corporate Bonds Outstanding, Emerging Europe2013:Q3

Investment Grade

High Yield

Non-Rated

5.9. Emerging Market HY Bond Issuance

Issuer Industry Group Date Currency

Amount

(Millions) Coupon Moodys S&P Fitch

Russian Standard Bank ZAO Finance 10/07/2013 USD 200 11.500 Caa1 B

Uranium One Inc Mining 21/08/2013 RUB 12,500 10.250

TVN Finance Corporation III AB Telecommunications 06/09/2013 EUR 430 7.375 B1 B+

Polish Television Holding BV Telecommunications 11/09/2013 EUR 300 11.000 B-

Borets Finance Ltd Oil & Gas 19/09/2013 USD 420 7.625 B1 BB

Gazprombank OAO Finance 24/09/2013 USD 750 7.496 BB-

PIK (Payment in Kind); Debut issue Source: Bloomberg, Dealogic

12


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6. Credit Quality6.1. European HY Default Rate 6.2. Developed Europe Issuer Rating Actions1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Oct -11 Ja n-1 2 Ap r-12 Ju l-1 2 Oct -12 Ja n-1 3 Ap r-13 Ju l-1 3

Percent

Source: Standard & Poor's

European HY Default Rate (LTM)Oct. 2011 - Sep. 2013

S&P

Moodys

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q3

# Of Issuers


S&P Deve loped Europe Issuer Rating Actions2008 - 2013:Q3

Upgrades

Downgrades

Downgrade/Upgrade Ratio (Right)

6.3. Emerging Europe Issuer Rating Actions2 6.4. Developed European Industry Rating Actions by$ Amount

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q3

# Of Issuers


S&P Emerging Europe Issuer Rating Actions2008 - 2013:Q3

Upgrades

Downgrades

Downgrade/Upgrade Ratio (Right)

-90,000 -70,000 -50,000 -30,000 -10,000 10,000

Utility

Insurance

High Technology

Chemicals, Packaging and Environmental Services

Metals, Mining and Steel

Media and Entertainment

Capital Goods

Retail/Restaurants

Forest Products and Building Materials

Transportation

Healthcare

Home/real estate Companies

Financial Institutions

Automotive

Telecommunications

Aerospace and defense

USD

Millions

Source: Standard &

Poor's

S&P Deve loped Europe Issuer Rating Actions by $ Amount ex

Sovereign & Banks2013:Q3

Downgrades

Upgrades

6.5. Emerging European Industry Rating Actions by $Amount

-2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

Home/real estate Companies

Oil and Gas Exporation and Production

Telecommunications

Utility

USD Millions

Source: Standard &Poor's

S&P Emerging Europe Issuer Rating Actions by $ Amount exSovereign & Banks2013:Q3

Downgrades

Upgrades

1Numbers include both corporate and sovereigns.

2Numbers include both corporate and sovereigns.

13


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6.6. European DefaultsIssuer Industry Group Country Date Reported By Reason

Agroton Public Ltd Consumer Products Ukraine July 2013 S&P Missed Interest Payment

Codere S.A. Media and Entertainment Spain August 2013 S&P, Moodys Missed Interest Payment

Source: Moody's, Standard & Poor's

14


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7. Relative Value7.1. European HY Bonds, Cash vs. Synthetic 7.2. European Leveraged Loans, Cash vs. Synthetic

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13

Basis Points

Sources: Markit

Bonds, Cash vs. SyntheticOct. 2011 - Sep. 2013

HY Spread

iBoxx EUR HY

iTraxx XO 5Y

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13

Price/Bid

Sources: Thomson Reuters LPC, Markit

Loans, Cash vs. SyntheticOct. 2011 - Sep. 2013

LevX Senior

Euro Lev Top 40

8. Total Return8.1. European HY Bond Total Return 8.2. European Leveraged Loan Total Return

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2012 2013

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q3

Percentage

Source: Bank of America-Merrill Lynch

European High Yield Total Return

2005 - 2013:Q3

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

2012 2013

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q3

Percentage

Source: Standard and Poor's LCDELLI EUR-denominated only unavailable for 2003 and 2004.

European Leveraged Loan Total Return

2005 - 2013:Q3

ELLI

ELLI (EUR-denominated only)

8.3. Asset Class Total Return

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Russell 2000MCSI EM

Euro HY CCC and Lower Rated

Euro HY B Rated

S&P 500

Euro High Yield

Euro Fallen Angel HY

Euro HY BB rated

Global Fallen Angel HY

S&P ELLI

U.S. HY

U.S. HY Distressed

EMU Financial Corporates

EMU Covered Bonds

U.S. Mortgages 30Y

U.S. Corporates

U.S. ABS/MBS

EMU ABS/MBS

U.S. Treasuries

U.S. Municipal

Percentage

Source: BofA-ML,Bloomberg

Asset C lass Total Returns2013:Q3

15


Third Quarter 2013


18/22

Summary of the MethodologiesAdopted for this Report

1. Leveraged Issuance Overview1.1. 1.3. Leveraged Loans and High Yield BondsLeveraged loan data are sourced from Thomson Reuters LPCand Dealogic.

Leveraged loan data from Thomson Reuters LPC are definedprimarily as having sub-investment grade ratings and/or amargin spread minimum of 200 basis points (spread mini-mums will vary from year to year to make Thomson LPCscutoff). Leveraged loan aggregates will include first lien, sec-ond lien, and mezzanine financing. Discrepancies in Thom-son Reuters LPC data are due to rounding and/or currencyrate of exchange.

Leveraged loan data from Dealogic are defined primarily ascoming from a leveraged or highly leveraged European deal;

loan tranches must have sub-investment grade ratings, or, ifunrated, a margin spread minimum of 125 basis points over abenchmark (e.g., Euribor, LIBOR). Under these guidelines,sub-investment grade-rated loans with a margin spread of lessthan 125 basis points are included. Deals must be Europeanand are inclusive of both developed and emerging market Eu-rope as defined in high yield criteria in Section 3. Deals mustalso be marketed either in Europe or in the United States.Loans not EUR-denominated are converted to EUR as ofcredit date for purposes of aggregation. Aggregates includenew money as well as non-new money deals.

Criteria for high yield bond transactions can be found in Sec-tion 3, 4, and 5.

1.4. 1.7. Bank Lending SurveysData for loan demand and credit standards are sourced fromthe ECBs bank lending survey. Graph numbers are net per-centages of reporting banks.

1.8. Global Comparison High Yield IssuanceData for global high yield issuance are sourced from Dealog-ic. Asian deals are inclusive of Japan and Australia.

2. Issuance Leveraged Loans2.1. 2.2.Leveraged loan issuance data are sourced primarily fromDealogic and Thomson Reuters LPC. For more details on

qualifying criteria, please refer to section 1.

2.3. Forward Pipeline of Leveraged Loan MarketForward leveraged loan pipeline data are sourced from S&PLCD.

2.4. S&P ELLI Total Institutional Loans Outstand-ingTotal institutional loan outstanding data are sourced fromS&P LCD and are outstanding loans in the S&P ELLI index.

2.5. S&P ELLI Ratings DiversificationS&P ELLI ratings diversification are the percentages of cur-

rently outstanding loans in S&Ps ELLI index that are ratedaccordingly. Data are provided by S&P LCD.

2.6. Leveraged Loan Secondary Market BidsEuropean leveraged trading volumes are sourced from Thom-son Reuters LPC and are percentage of volume by bid price.

2.7. 2.8. Loan SpreadsLoan spread data are sourced from Dealogic under our crite-ria for leveraged loans (see Section 1). For purposes of loanspread calculations, deals marketed in the US are excluded.Spreads are a weighted average of spread margin on new lev-eraged issuance on a rolling twelve months basis, and are typ-ically benchmarked to LIBOR or EURIBOR. Institutional

loan spread data are inclusive of 2nd

lien; pro rata spreads in-clude all revolvers and term loan A (Tla).

3. Issuance High Yield Bonds OverviewHigh yield bond transactions are sourced primarily from Dea-logic, with supplemental information sourced from Bloom-berg. High yield transactions are defined as transactions witha Dealogic effective rating of equal or less than BB+, andmay include unrated transactions based on issuer and desknotes. Split-junk rated transactions are generally excluded.

European issuance, inclusive of both emerging market Eu-rope and developed market Europe, are defined as an issuehaving a Dealogic deal nationality as well as nationality of

risk within Europe issued in the euro, foreign, and globalmarkets; deals marketed locally are excluded. Sovereign, sub-sovereign, and supranational parent issuers are excluded fromissuance, as well as ABS/MBS issuers.

Emerging market Europe and developed market European is-suance are defined by nationality of risk, rather than national-ity of deal, and although primarily sourced from Dealogic,are ultimately subject to AFMEs discretion. Emerging anddeveloped market issuance are mutually exclusive and willcontain no overlap unless otherwise mentioned.

European emerging market bonds are further defined withhaving a minimum deal size of 75.0 million; deals on the

same day from the same issuer are aggregated for the purposeof meeting this minimum. Russian ruble (RUB)-denominatedissuance are excluded due to differences in terms and docu-mentation; as of 4Q10 this criteria no longer applies and maybe included on a case by case basis.

3.2. European HY Issuance by SponsorData for high yield issuance by sponsor are sourced fromDealogic. LBO deals are defined as all high yield transactionswhose issuer parent is a public or private finance entity (i.e., afinancial sponsor), regardless of use of proceeds.

16


Third Quarter 2013


19/22

3.3. 3.6. European Corporate Bonds OutstandingData for European corporate outstanding are sourced fromBloomberg and AFME/SIFMA estimates. Criteria for Euro-pean corporate bonds are: bonds must be placed in the do-mestic, euro, foreign, and global markets with nationality ofincorporation from a European developed or emerging marketcountry as defined by AFME. Corporate bonds exclude all

structured notes, covered bonds, warrants, deposit notes, re-ceipts, and certificates of deposit. All currencies are includedand have been converted to EUR at time of pricing and/or is-sue.

High-yield ratings are sourced from Bloombergs compositerating, which is an average of all available ratings from fourrating agencies: Moodys, Standard and Poors, Fitch Ratings,or DBRS. Split-rated securities may be included in high yieldnumbers due to this.

Corporate bonds outstanding include certain securities thatmay be considered corporate securitisations or structured fi-nance securities; while all effort is made to exclude the latter,

the former will be counted toward the corporate bonds out-standing total, and will subsequently overlap to some extentto AFME structured finance outstanding numbers.

3.7. European Corporate Bond Issuance by RatingData for HY issuance by rating are sourced from Dealogic,Bloomberg, and the three rating agencies. The composite rat-ing is determined by the lowest rating assigned by eitherMoodys, Standard and Poors, or Fitch Ratings.

3.8. European Corporate Bond Issuance by TenorData for HY issuance by tenor are sourced from Dealogic.Other includes perpetuals.

3.9. European HY Issuance By Use of ProceedsData for HY issuance by use of proceeds are sourced fromDealogic and aggregated for the purposes of this calculation.Please refer to Section 3 for criteria on high yield issue inclu-sion.

3.10. European HY Issuance, Senior SecuredShareData for HY issuance by seniority are sourced from Dealogicand Bloomberg. Senior Unsecured totals include all bondsthat are senior but not senior secured.

4. Issuance European Developed MarketHigh Yield Bonds

4.1. 4.7.,4.9High yield bond issuance data are sourced from Dealogic. Forfurther criteria on how high yield issuance are defined, pleaserefer to section 3.

Developed European issuance are deals predominantly fromwestern Europe and includes deals from Andorra, Austria,Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark,Spain, Estonia, Finland, France, Faroe Islands, United King-dom, Guernsey, Gibraltar, Greenland, Greece, Isle of Man,Ireland, Iceland, Italy, Jersey, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg,

Monaco, Malta, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal,San Marino, and Sweden.

4.8. European Developed Market Corporate BondsOutstandingData for corporate bonds outstanding are sourced fromBloomberg. Please refer to Section 3 for criteria and method-

ology.5. Issuance European Emerging MarketHigh Yield Bonds5.1. 5.7., 5.9.High yield bond issuance data are sourced from Dealogic.Criteria for all high yield issuance are found in section 3.

Emerging market European issuance deals are predominantlyfrom eastern Europe but will also additionally include Tur-key, the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uz-bekistan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, and Kyrgyzstan. Certain sub-investment grade countries are not included in the emergingmarket total, including, among others, Iceland and Greece.

5.8. European Emerging Market Corporate BondsOutstandingData for corporate bonds outstanding are sourced fromBloomberg. Please refer to Section 3 for criteria and method-ology.

6. Credit Quality6.1. European HY Default RateEuropean HY bond default rates are sourced from S&P andare on a trailing 12 month basis.

Europe for the S&P default rate is defined to include Aus-tria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Channel Islands, Cyprus, Czech Re-

public, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxem-bourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, SlovakRepublic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and theUnited Kingdom. Countries are subject to revision.

6.2. 6.3. European Issuer Rating ActionsEuropean issuer upgrades and downgrades are sourced fromS&P. The breakdown by emerging market and developed Eu-rope are from AFMEs definition of developed and emergingmarkets and would be, under S&Ps guidelines, a combina-tion of both European and EMEA rating actions. Multipledowngrades of a single issuer are counted separately. Ratingactions are inclusive of both corporate (both credit and mer-

ger-related) as well as sovereign ratings.

6.4. 6.5. European Issuer Rating Actions by $AmountRating actions by US dollar amount, industry, and country aresourced from S&P. Breakdown by emerging market and de-veloped Europe are from AFMEs definition of developedand emerging markets and would be, under S&Ps guidelines,a combination of both European and EMEA rating actions.

17


Third Quarter 2013


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6.6. European DefaultsDefaults reported by either Moodys or Standard and Poorsin the European bond markets and loans markets, when avail-able.

7. Cash and Synthetic7.1. 7.2. Loans and Bonds, Cash and Synthetic

Data are sourced from Markit and Thomson Reuters LPC.High yield bond cash and synthetic spreads from Markit; Eu-ropean leveraged loan cash bid prices from Thomson ReutersLPC, and European leveraged loans synthetic prices fromMarkit.

8. Total Return8.1. European HY Bond Total ReturnEuropean HY bond total return data are sourced from theBank of America-Merrill Lynchs Euro High Yield Index(HE00). The index tracks the performance of EUR-denominated below-investment-grade corporate debt publiclyissued in the euro domestic or Eurobond markets. Qualifyingsecurities must have a below-investment-grade rating and an

investment-grade rated country of risk. Qualifying securitiesmust have at least one year remaining term to maturity, fixedcoupon schedule and minimum amount outstanding of 100million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, global securities(debt issued simultaneously in the Eurobond and euro domes-tic markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, in-cluding toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the index. Call-able perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least oneyear from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securitiesalso qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rateperiod and are at least one year from the last call prior to thedate the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate securi-ty. Defaulted, warrant-bearing and euro legacy currency secu-

rities are excluded from the index.

8.2. European Leveraged Loan Total ReturnTotal return data are provided by S&P LCD and are total re-turns from S&Ps ELLI index, both ELLI and EUR-denominated ELLI. Total returns for ELLI EUR-denominateddata are unavailable for 2003 and 2004.

8.3. Asset Class Total Return (Cash Basis)Total returns are sourced from respective index owners andBank of America-Merrill Lynchs indices.

18


Third Quarter 2013


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DisclaimerThe information and opinion commentary in this High Yieldand Leveraged Loan Report (Report) was prepared by theleveraged finance division of the Association for FinancialMarkets in Europe (AFME) and the Securities Industry andFinancial Markets Association (SIFMA). AFME and SIFMAbelieve that the information in the Report, which has been ob-

tained from multiple sources believed to be reliable, is relia-ble as of the date of publication. In no event, however, doeseither of AFME and SIFMA make any representation as tothe accuracy or completeness of such information. AFMEand SIFMA have no obligation to update, modify or amendthe information in this Report or to otherwise notify readers ifany information in the Report becomes outdated or inaccu-rate. AFME and SIFMA will make every effort to includeupdated information as it becomes available and in subse-quent reports. As information is collected from multiplesources and estimates by the individual sources may differfrom one another, estimates for similar types of data couldvary within the Report.

19


Third Quarter 2013


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AFME

Gary Simmons, Director

www.afme.eu

SIFMA

Kyle Brandon, Managing Director, Director of Research

Sharon Sung, Assistant Vice President, Researchwww.sifma.org

www.afme.eu

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