Events vs.

Trends

Events vs.

Trends

While other While other societies can be societies can be traced to specific traced to specific events that lead events that lead to their collapse, to their collapse, our global society our global society faces a dilemma faces a dilemma

that is that is trend-trend-driven.driven.

Soil erosion, falling Soil erosion, falling water tables, rising water tables, rising

carbon emissions are carbon emissions are not easily reversed.not easily reversed.

Monsoons, droughts, Monsoons, droughts, heat waves are heat waves are specific events, specific events,

temporary temporary repercussions.repercussions.

Food as a Weak LinkFood as a Weak LinkFood as a Weak LinkFood as a Weak Link

Supply & Supply & Demand are Demand are in a constant in a constant

imbalanceimbalance

Rising Sea LevelsRising Sea LevelsRising Sea LevelsRising Sea Levels

Available Land

Melting ice caps

Soil Erosion

SUPPLY: DEMAND:

Population Growth

Increased animal consumption

Use of grain to fuel cars

Rich vs. Poor countries

Resource Trends

Affecting Supply

Resource Trends

Affecting Supply

Cropland loss to non Cropland loss to non farming:farming: Increase in paving of Increase in paving of

roadsroads Suburban sprawlSuburban sprawl Advancing desertsAdvancing deserts

Cropland loss to non Cropland loss to non farming:farming: Increase in paving of Increase in paving of

roadsroads Suburban sprawlSuburban sprawl Advancing desertsAdvancing deserts

Diversion of irrigation water to Diversion of irrigation water to cities:cities:

Growing population drinks more Growing population drinks more waterwaterCities (Denver) not near large Cities (Denver) not near large bodies of waterbodies of waterOver pumping of aquifersOver pumping of aquifers

Reduction of oil supplies:Reduction of oil supplies:Increased use of automobilesIncreased use of automobilesIncreased food production Increased food production (tillage, irrigation, harvesting(tillage, irrigation, harvestingEasy access oil well running Easy access oil well running drydry

Cropland loss to non farming: People turning to oceans for protein, world seafood supply

is now dependent on fish farms Increased demand for fish feed as a result of farming fish

Cropland loss to non farming: People turning to oceans for protein, world seafood supply

is now dependent on fish farms Increased demand for fish feed as a result of farming fish

Results:Results:”Business as usual is no longer a viable ”Business as usual is no longer a viable

option”option”

Results:Results:”Business as usual is no longer a viable ”Business as usual is no longer a viable

option”option”

Diversion of irrigation water to cities: Aquifers run dry, can no longer grow crops (Saudi Arabia

discontinuing wheat production as of 2016) Shortage in water shrinks grain harvest, leads to need for

genetically modified organisms

Diversion of irrigation water to cities: Aquifers run dry, can no longer grow crops (Saudi Arabia

discontinuing wheat production as of 2016) Shortage in water shrinks grain harvest, leads to need for

genetically modified organisms

Politics of FoodPolitics of Food

Background:* Countries that imported

goods were no longer able to rely on the market, sought to make long term deals with countries still willing to export…to no avail.

Background:* Countries that imported

goods were no longer able to rely on the market, sought to make long term deals with countries still willing to export…to no avail.

In 2007 Russia and Argentina started banning exports in

an attempt to keep domestic

food a reasonable price.

Land BuyoutsLand Buyouts Affluent countries (Saudi

Arabia) purchased land in poorer nations such as Ethiopia.

Affluent countries are also buying land for water use.

Usually controversial agreements between affluent and host countries.

Affluent countries (Saudi Arabia) purchased land in poorer nations such as Ethiopia.

Affluent countries are also buying land for water use.

Usually controversial agreements between affluent and host countries.

ResultsResults

Host countries now have less land to feed the already starving nation.

Host country has less water, even greater dependence on imported grain.

Host nations have even more political unrest. Buyouts usually occurring in countries with tropical rainforests, results in slash and burn. Farmers are not involved in land buyout agreements, are forced to leave their land,

greater unemployment rate.

Host countries now have less land to feed the already starving nation.

Host country has less water, even greater dependence on imported grain.

Host nations have even more political unrest. Buyouts usually occurring in countries with tropical rainforests, results in slash and burn. Farmers are not involved in land buyout agreements, are forced to leave their land,

greater unemployment rate.

Global Economy PonziGlobal Economy Ponzi

Paul Hawken: Blessed UnrestPaul Hawken: Blessed Unrest

Sir Nicolas Sir Nicolas Stern:Stern:

Sir Nicolas Sir Nicolas Stern:Stern:

The difference between Market Price for The difference between Market Price for fossil fuels and Honest Price is greatfossil fuels and Honest Price is great

Honest Price: What you pay, plus the environment and society costs (in 2009 gas should have been $ 15 per gallon)

Everything from Market PriceCost of climate changeTax subsidies to the oil industryMilitary protection costsHealthcare costs

This type of market behavior is leading to the destruction of natural support systemsDestruction of natural support systems leads to state failure

Failing States: Failing States: CharacteristicsCharacteristicsFailing States: Failing States: CharacteristicsCharacteristics

Failing States: ResultsFailing States: Results

Food shortagesHigh food prices

High percentage of unemployed youth

Political unrestLacking in functional healthcare

systemBreakdown of law and order, loss of

personal security

Food shortagesHigh food prices

High percentage of unemployed youth

Political unrestLacking in functional healthcare

systemBreakdown of law and order, loss of

personal security

Failing States (2008)Failing States (2008)

Scores are based on 12 social, political,

economical, and

military indicators out of 120.

Scores are based on 12 social, political,

economical, and

military indicators out of 120.

Plan B: A Plan to Save CivilizationPlan B: A Plan to Save Civilization

Cutting carbon emissions Stabilizing the population

Eradicating poverty Restoring the earths natural

systems

Cutting carbon emissions Stabilizing the population

Eradicating poverty Restoring the earths natural

systems

Cutting Carbon Emissions

Cutting Carbon Emissions

Dramatically raise energy efficiency

worldwide

By 80% in 2020

Investing in renewable resources

Banning deforestation, planting trees by the

billions

8 Billion

Must Reduce Fertility

Projected 9.2 billion by 2050 with 2.4 billion in

developing countries

Needs to stop before mortality

rate increases

Stabilizing the Population

Restoring the Earth’s Natural Systems

Restoring the Earth’s Natural Systems

Conserving soil Banning deforestation

Promoting reforestation Restoring fisheries

Protecting aquifers by raising water productivity

Essential to reverse the rise in hunger

Conserving soil Banning deforestation

Promoting reforestation Restoring fisheries

Protecting aquifers by raising water productivity

Essential to reverse the rise in hunger