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By: Nan Shellabarger Director, Aviation Policy & Plans Date: February 15, 2011 Federal Aviation Administration FAA National Forecast FY 2011 - 2031
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By: Nan Shellabarger Director, Aviation Policy & Plans
Date: February 15, 2011
Federal Aviation Administration FAA National
Forecast FY 2011 - 2031
Federal Aviation Administration 2 February 15, 2011
Agenda • Review of 2010
• Assumptions
• Traffic/Activity
• Air Traffic Operations
• Summary
Federal Aviation Administration 3 February 15, 2011
Review of 2010 • Traffic recovering slowly
– System passengers up 1.2%; RPMs up 2.2%; load factor up 2.1 pts
• Yield rebounds partially from 2009 decline – Domestic mainline up 5.2%; International up 10.0%
• Industry returns to profitability – Commercial carriers earn $3.0B; Passenger carriers earn $1.7B
• Air Traffic operations mixed
– Total FAA & Contract tower operations fell for 3rd consecutive year – En route A/C handled posted first increase since 2007
Federal Aviation Administration 4 February 15, 2011
Key Assumptions – Medium/Long Term • Economic growth
– U.S. and Europe lackluster: 2% to 2.5% per year – Asia and Latin America dynamic: 4% to 5% per year
• Energy
– Oil prices at $100 by 2018, exceed $110 by 2030
• Airline consolidation – May continue to occur in various forms, but no impact on
overall level of demand
• Forecast is “unconstrained” – Future demand not materially impacted by environmental or
infrastructure constraints
Federal Aviation Administration 5 February 15, 2011
CY 2011-31 Economic Growth
2.8%
2.0%
4.6% 4.2%
3.3%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
U.S. Europe Asia Latin World
Rea
l GD
P –
AA
GR
Federal Aviation Administration 6 February 15, 2011
U.S. Unemployment Rate
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Perc
ent
2011 Base 2010 Fcst Pess Optim
Actual Forecast 9.7% in 2010
4.8% in 2024
Federal Aviation Administration 7 February 15, 2011
Oil Prices
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
RA
C $
Per
Bar
rel
2011 Base 2010 Fcst Pess Optim
Actual Forecast
$113
$157
$102 $74
Federal Aviation Administration 8 February 15, 2011
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
RPM
s (M
IL)
2011 Base 2010 Fcst Pess Optim
Actual Forecast
System RPMs
1.7 Trillion in 2031
787 Billion in 2010
Federal Aviation Administration 9 February 15, 2011
System RPMs
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
RPM
s (M
IL)
Dom. Mainline Dom. Regional International
Actual Forecast
Federal Aviation Administration 10 February 15, 2011
System Enplanements
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
1,500,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Enpl
anem
ents
(000
)
2011 Base 2010 Fcst Pess Optim
Actual Forecast
1 Billion in 2021
Federal Aviation Administration 11 February 15, 2011
Passenger Enplanements
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Enpl
anem
ents
(000
)
Dom. Mainline Dom. Regional International
Actual Forecast
Federal Aviation Administration 12 February 15, 2011
System Load Factor
76.0
77.0
78.0
79.0
80.0
81.0
82.0
83.0
84.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Load
Fac
tor (
%)
2011 Base 2010 Fcst
Actual Forecast
Federal Aviation Administration 13 February 15, 2011
Mainline Carrier Domestic Real Yield
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Rea
l Yie
ld (2
010¢
)
2011 Base 2010 Fcst Pess Optim
Actual Forecast
Federal Aviation Administration 14 February 15, 2011
US & Foreign Flag Passengers by Region
4.0%
5.1% 5.1%
3.4%
4.5%
3.9% 4.4%
5.2%
3.4%
4.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Atlantic Latin Pacific Transborder System
AA
%G
R: 2
010-
30
CY
2011 Base 2010 Fcst
Federal Aviation Administration 15 February 15, 2011
Cargo RTMs
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
RTM
s (M
il)
2011 Base 2010 Fcst
Actual Forecast
36 Billion
93 Billion
Federal Aviation Administration 16 February 15, 2011
General Aviation Active Aircraft
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Act
ive
Airc
raft
CY Piston Experimental, LSA, Other Turbine
Actual Forecast
Federal Aviation Administration 17 February 15, 2011
General Aviation Hours Flown
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Hou
rs (0
00)
CY Piston Experimental, LSA, Other Turbine
Actual Forecast
Federal Aviation Administration 18 February 15, 2011
En Route Aircraft Handled
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
A/C
Han
dled
(000
)
2011 Base 2010 Fcst
Actual Forecast
Federal Aviation Administration 19 February 15, 2011
En Route Aircraft Handled
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Ope
ratio
ns (0
00)
Commercial Non Commercial
Actual Forecast
Federal Aviation Administration 20 February 15, 2011
Passengers by Hub Size: 2030 vs. 2010
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Large Medium Small
Enpl
anem
ents
(000
)
2010 203080% increase
67% increase 61% increase
Federal Aviation Administration 21 February 15, 2011
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Ope
ratio
ns (0
00s)
CommercialNon Commercial
Operations by Hub Size: 2030 vs. 2010
61% increase
40% increase
22% increase
Large Medium Small 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030
Federal Aviation Administration 22 February 15, 2011
FAA and Contract Tower Operations
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Ope
ratio
ns (0
00)
Commercial Non Commercial
Actual Forecast
Federal Aviation Administration 23 February 15, 2011
Forecast Risks • Energy Prices
– Increasing volatility – Supply/demand balance may not be as favorable as assumed
• Economy
– Strength of recovery still uncertain
• Capacity Discipline – Will carriers continue to exercise restraint with strengthening
demand and improved profitability?
• Congestion – Growth fastest at largest airports
Federal Aviation Administration 24 February 15, 2011
Forecast Risks • Airline Consolidation
– Yields and fares higher – More financially stable industry?
• Climate Change
– Problem is global – Path forward requires multiple solutions
Federal Aviation Administration 25 February 15, 2011
Summary • Industry recovery continues in 2011
– More modest than prior recoveries – International recovering faster than domestic
• Substantial growth in demand and activity
– 560 million additional passengers on US carriers by 2031 – Traffic (RPMs) more than double – Tower operations increase by 35%; aircraft handled up 61%
• Significant risks – Energy prices: may have higher levels and increased volatility – Economy: may have lower demand – Congestion: Capacity (infrastructure and technology) at congested
airports may not keep pace with demand – Airline consolidation: may lead to higher fares – Climate change: may lead to reductions in demand
Federal Aviation Administration 26 February 15, 2011
