Fact finding mission or Facts, Findings, Missions as it looks from a viewpoint of a Hungarian Banker...

Fact finding mission or

Facts, Findings, Missionsas it looks from a viewpoint of a Hungarian Banker from Bucharest

Budapest International Business Center Conference 2013Panel discussion - Financial Services

BudapestMarch 22, 2013

György Gáldi - Deputy CEO, Member of Management Board OTP Bank Romania S.A.

Content of this unusual SLIDESHOW

Showing up Facts and Findings with respect to main figures/features of the new (i.e. joined during the last decade) EU member-states from Central and South Eastern Europe about:

– Banking sector

– FDI flow & stock developments

– Foreign trading developments

in order to determine the potential Missions to be fulfilled by banks acting as financial intermediaries.

WARNING!

FASTEN YOUR SEATBELTS! EXPECTED SPEED: 20-30 Sec/slides

2

Introduction

3

Eurozone, 17 member states (including Slovakia)

PolandRegion

Region includes:Czech Republic

SlovakiaHungaryRomaniaBulgaria

Source: Eurostat, OTP research

4

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Region Poland Eurozone

Real GDP(2008 average = 100, seasonally adjusted and adjusted data by working days)

Introduction

5

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Romania Slovakia

Real GDP(2008 average = 100, seasonally adjusted and adjusted data by working days)


Introduction

493 381

9,483

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000


GDP at current prices(bln EUR, 2012)

6


Introduction

31.0

26.7

19.8

14.5

8.0

Czech Rep. (EUR 153 bln)

Romania (EUR 132 bln)

Hungary (EUR 98 bln))

Slovakia (EUR 71 bln)

Bulgaria (EUR 40 bln)

Weight of countries in the region by GDP(% of region, based on current prices, 2012)

7


Introduction

Banking sector

8

Source: ECB, OTP research

Banking sector - Assets

500 355

32,699

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000


Aggregated assets of the banking sectors(bln EUR, December 2012)

9

Source: ECB, OTP research

Banking sector - Assets

38.4

22.3

18.3

12.0

9.1

Czech Rep.

Hungary

Romania

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Weight of countries in the region by aggregated assets(% of region, December 2012)

10

Note: only private loans are includedSource: ECB, Eurostat, OTP research

Banking sector – Assets and Loans

11

125 114 11484 69

101 93

345

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Czech Rep.

Bulgaria Hungary Slovakia Romania Region Poland Eurozone

Assets Loans

Aggregated assets and loans to GDP(%, 2012)

12

Banking sector – Loans

41

37

53

44

26

39

31

61

47 4643

33

4446

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Slovakia Romania Region Poland

2006 2012

Loans to GDP ratio compared to the Eurozone(Eurozone = 100)

Note: only private loans are includedSource: ECB, Eurostat, OTP research

13


55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

145D

ec-0

6

Mar

-07

Jun-

07

Sep-

07

Dec

-07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08

Sep-

08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep-

09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec

-12


Evolution of loans(2008 average = 100, 3M moving average)

Note: only private loans are included, EUR based indexSource: ECB, OTP research

14

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135D

ec-0

6

Mar

-07

Jun-

07

Sep-

07

Dec

-07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08

Sep-

08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep-

09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec

-12


Evolution of loans(2008 average = 100, 3M moving average)


Note: only private loans are included, EUR based indexSource: ECB, OTP research

Banking sector – Deposits

15

64

55

68

51

32

53

44

6360

50

42

30

4846

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Czech Rep. Bulgaria Slovakia Hungary Romania Region Poland

2006 2012

Deposits to GDP ratio compared to the Eurozone(Eurozone = 100)

Note: only private deposits are includedSource: ECB, Eurostat, OTP research

16


70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140D

ec-0

6

Mar

-07

Jun-

07

Sep-

07

Dec

-07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08

Sep-

08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep-

09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec

-12


Evolution of deposits(2008 average = 100, 3M moving average)

Note: only private deposits are includedSource: ECB, OTP research


17

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150D

ec-0

6

Mar

-07

Jun-

07

Sep-

07

Dec

-07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08

Sep-

08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep-

09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec

-12


Evolution of deposits(2008 average = 100, 3M moving average)

Note: only private deposits are includedSource: ECB, OTP research

18

Banking sector – Loans to deposits

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125D

ec-0

6

Mar

-07

Jun-

07

Sep-

07

Dec

-07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08

Sep-

08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep-

09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec

-12


Loans to deposits ratio(%, 3M moving average)

Note: only private loans and deposits are includedSource: ECB, OTP research

Banking sector – Loans to deposits

19

60708090

100110120130140150160

Dec

-06

Mar

-07

Jun-

07

Sep-

07

Dec

-07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08

Sep-

08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep-

09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec

-12


Loans to deposits ratio(%, 3M moving average)

Note: only private loans and deposits are includedSource: ECB, OTP research

FDI stock and flow developments

20

Note: intra FDI flows are includedSource: Eurostat, OTP research


21

9.518.0

25.9 29.2 29.4 28.2

9.5 11.0 12.7

4.3

10.4

8.3

15.6 17.2

10.1

9.8 10.513.6

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Region Poland

Inward FDI flows(bln EUR)

20 15 1221

31 24 2610 14

20 2236 15

26

1622

42 31

20 20

24

20

10

1515

15 29

21 29

20

3125

34

3720 14

20 14 8 13 9 11 12 12

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


Shares of the inward FDI flows in the region(%)


22

96 126 157201

239 260 277 290 29046

6377

95

121117

129161 152

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Region Poland

FDI stocks(bln EUR)

5 6 7 9 11 12 12 12 13

37 33 33 30 32 31 32 33 33

35 36 33 31 27 24 25 23 22

10 12 14 17 18 19 18 18 19

13 13 13 13 12 14 13 13 14

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


Shares of the FDI stocks in the region(%)

Note: intra FDI stocks are includedSource: Eurostat, OTP research


23

96

64 60 57

42

59

41

88

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Bulgaria Hungary Czech Rep.

Slovakia Romania Region Poland Eurozone

Inward FDI stock to GDP(%, 2011)

Note: intra FDI stocks are included. For example in case of the Eurozone the FDI stock / GDP ratio would be only about 46% if the intra FDI stocks are excluded.Source: Eurostat, OTP research


24

9.07.4 6.4

5.02.9

5.33.9

25.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Czech Rep.

Slovakia Hungary Bulgaria Romania Region Poland Eurozone

Per capita inward FDI stock(1.000 EUR/capita, 2011)

Note: intra FDI stocks are included. In case of Romania the population took into consideration was 19,0 mln as of the last (2011) census and not the official number of approx. 21 mln.Source: Eurostat, Romanian National Institute of Statistics, OTP research

Source: Eurostat, National Bank of Romania, OTP research


3,980

611

621

719

815

957

1,115

1,274

1,418

1,837

2,535

2,933

3,339

5,042

6,267

9,659

11,971

Others (7.2%)

16. Hungary (1.1%)

15. Turkey (1.1%)

14. United Kingdom (1.3%)

13. Czech Republic (1.5%)

12. Spain (1.7%)

11. Belgium (2%)

10. Luxembourg (2.3%)

9. United States (2.6%)

8. Switzerland (3.3%)

7. Cyprus (4.6%)

6. Greece (5.3%)

5. Italy (6.1%)

4. France (9.2%)

3. Germany (11.4%)

2. Austria (17.5%)

1. Netherlands (21.7%)

Top investors in Romania by inward FDI stock(% of total in brackets,mln EUR, 2011)

423

663739

870808

721

611

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Structure of inward FDI stock in Romania from Hungary(mln EUR, 2011)

TOTAL 611Services, from which: 341 - Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

186

- Financial and insurance activities 119Manufacturing, from which: 177 - Manufacture of petroleum, chemical, pharmaceutical, rubber and plastic products

111

Construction 45Mining and quarrying 27Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities

14

Others 7

Inward FDI stock in Romania from Hungary(mln EUR)

25

Note: at the calculation of rankings was took into consideration only the top 50 foreign investors by volume of share capital Source: ONRC, OTP research


40,089

4,237

4,617

4,818

5,205

5,495

5,654

6,414

6,452

6,573

7,185

10,583

11,795

12,986

19,503

34,185

Others (21.6%)


14. UK (2.5%)

13. Spain (2.6%)

12. Cyprus (2.8%)

11. Greece (3%)

10. Syria (3%)

9. Israel (3.5%)

8. Austria (3.5%)

7. USA (3.5%)

6. France (3.9%)

5. China (5.7%)

4. Hungary (6.3%)

3. Turkey (7%)

2. Germany (10.5%)

1. Italy (18.4%)

Top investors in Romania by no. of companies(% of total in brackets, no., 2012)

26

4,3925,010

5,6316,535

7,985

9,40210,035

10,77711,262

11,795

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

No. % of total

Companies in Romania with Hungarian capital(no.)

Source: National Bank of Romania, OTP research

The structure of the FDI stock by development regions in bln EUR and percentage (2011)

BUCHAREST-ILFOV

34,0 (61,7%)

SOUTH-EAST 3,0 (5,4%)

NORTH - EAST 1,6 (2,9%)

NORTH - WEST 2,5 (4,5%)

CENTER4,2 (7,6%)

SOUTH-MUNTENIA 4,1 (7,4%)

SOUTH - WEST - OLTENIA 1,8 (3,3%)

WEST 4,0 (7,2%)


27

Note: NCP estimations, Extra-Regions GDP - RON 0,7 bln (0,1%)Source: Romanian National Commission of Prognosis (NCP), OTP research

The structure of the GDP by development regions in bln RON and in percentage (2012)

BUCHAREST-ILFOV

147,1 (25,1%)

SOUTH-EAST 62,3 (10,6%)

NORTH - EAST 64,0 (10,9%)

NORTH - WEST 62,3 (10,6%)

CENTER67,9 (11,6%)

SOUTH-MUNTENIA 73,9 (12,6%)

SOUTH - WEST - OLTENIA

47,3 (8,1%)

WEST 59,6 (10,2%)


28

Foreign trade developments

29


30

123 149 170 206245 271

221274

321 33248

6072

88102

116

98

120

136 143

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Region Poland

Export of goods(bln EUR)

5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 6

35 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37

31 30 30 29 28 27 27 26 25 24

13 13 13 13 12 12 13 14 14 14

16 15 15 16 17 18 18 18 18 19

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Shares in the export of goods in the region(%)

Note: intra trades are includedSource: Eurostat, OTP research

31

8983 80

52

34

67

37 37

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Slovakia Hungary Czech Rep.

Bulgaria Romania Region Poland Eurozone

Volume of export of goods to GDP(%, 2012)



32

11.7 11.6

8.1

2.8 2.4

6.4

3.7

10.5

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Slovakia Czech Rep.

Hungary Bulgaria Romania Region Poland Eurozone

Per capita export of goods(1.000 EUR/capita, 2012)


Note: intra trades are included. In case of Romania the population took into consideration was 19,0 mln as of the last (2011) census and not the official number of approx. 21 mln.Source: Eurostat, Romanian National Institute of Statistics, OTP research

Source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics, Eurostat, OTP research

75

85

95

105

115

125

EU27 Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Romania Slovakia

Industrial production(2008 average=100, 3M moving average)


33

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

MoM% YoY%

Industrial production(series adjusted by number of working days and seasonality)

34

139 167 188 229273 303

227277

319 3256072

82101

121142

107

134151 153

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Region Poland

Import of goods(bln EUR)

7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 8

33 34 33 32 32 32 33 34 34 34

30 29 28 27 26 24 25 24 23 23

15 16 17 18 19 19 17 17 17 17

14 14 15 16 16 17 18 18 18 19

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Shares in the import of goods in the region(%)



35

84

7672

62

42

66

3935

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Slovakia Hungary Czech Rep.

Bulgaria Romania Region Poland Eurozone

Volume of import of goods to GDP(%, 2012)



36

11.210.5

7.5

3.32.9

6.2

3.8

10.1

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Slovakia Czech Rep.

Hungary Bulgaria Romania Region Poland Eurozone

Per capita import of goods(1.000 EUR/capita, 2012)


Note: intra trades are included. In case of Romania the population took into consideration was 19,0 mln as of the last (2011) census and not the official number of approx. 21 mln.Source: Eurostat, Romanian National Institute of Statistics, OTP research

37

26,564

2,586

3,098

2,988

3,656

3,744

4,010

4,546

4,758

4,884

19,851

26,946

2,566

3,092

3,113

3,326

3,731

3,735

4,666

4,798

4,842

20,074

Other (32.9%)

10. Russia (3.2%)

9. Poland (3.8%)

8. Czech Rep. (3.7%)

7. UK (4.5%)

6. France (4.6%)

5. Italy (5.0%)

4. Austria (5.6%)

3. Slovakia (5.9%)

2. Romania (6.1%)

1. Germany (24.6%)

2012 2011

Export of goods(FOB, % of total in brackets, mln EUR)

Foreign trade developments - Hungary


17,344

2,351

2,501

2,665

3,113

3,303

3,377

3,953

4,871

6,189

6,379

17,546

17,561

2,086

2,539

2,661

3,071

3,288

3,469

4,097

5,173

5,493

6,447

18,303

Other (23.7%)

11. Romania (2.8%)

10. Czech Rep. (3.4%)

9. France (3.6%)


7. Italy (4.4%)

6. Poland (4.7%)

5. Slovakia (5.5%)

4. Austria (7.0%)

3. China (7.4%)

2. Russia (8.7%)

1. Germany (24.7%)

2012 2011

Import of goods(CIF, % of total in brackets, mln EUR)

38

15,649

1,075

1,101

1,404

1,448

1,636

2,567

2,787

3,379

5,799

8,423

16,355

1,088

1,109

1,283

1,623

1,735

2,377

2,454

3,151

5,446

8,376

Other (36.3%)

10. Poland (2.4%)

9. Spain (2.5%)


7. UK (3.6%)

6. Bulgaria (3.9%)

5. Hungary (5.3%)

4. Turkey (5.5%)

3. France (7.0%)

2. Italy (12.1%)

1. Gernamy (18.6%)

2012 2011

Export of goods(FOB, % of total in brackets, mln EUR)

18,305

1,758

2,528

2,278

2,197

2,173

2,093

3,173

4,782

6,250

9,404

17,799

1,920

2,086

2,273

2,284

2,334

2,387

3,102

4,881

5,994

9,514

Other (32.6%)


9. China (3.8%)

8. Kazakhstan (4.2%)

7. Austria (4.2%)

6. Poland (4.3%)

5. Russia (4.4%)

4. France (5.7%)

3. Hungary (8.9%)

2. Italy (11.0%)

1. Germany (17.4%)

2012 2011

Import of goods(CIF, % of total in brackets, mln EUR)

Foreign trade developments - Romania


39

909

1,399

139

864

165

802

217

719

563

522

197

272

121

209

51

73

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Export of goods Import of goods

OTHER

BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO

ANIMAL AND VEGETABLE OILS, FATS AND WAXES

CRUDE MATERIALS, INEDIBLE, EXCEPT FUELS

MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED ARTICLES

MANUFACTURED GOODS CLASSIFIED CHIEFLY BY MATERIAL

FOOD AND LIVE ANIMALS

MINERAL FUELS, LUBRICANTS AND RELATED MATERIALS

CHEMICALS AND RELATED PRODUCTS, N.E.S.

MACHINERY AND TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT

Romanian-Hungarian commercial relationships(mln EUR, 2012)

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Romanian export of goods to Hungary

Romanian import of goods from Hungary

Romanian-Hungarian commercial relationships(mln EUR, 2003-2012)



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40

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Date post:	16-Dec-2015
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