Myrna van Leeuwen, LEI Wageningen UR

AGMEMOD Partnership

Zagreb, February 25th 2015

Features of AGMEMOD

AGMEMOD partnership

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RU

WHAT is AGMEMOD?

(AGricultural MEmber State MODel)

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Characteristics (1)

• Multi-product, multi-country model for agrofood commodities (partial equilibrium)

• World price formation via inter-action of AGMEMOD regions with the Rest of the World (net-trade approach)

• Expandable with new countries (e.g. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kazachstan) and new commodities (fishery)

• Common ownership of the models developed and the analytical results (signing of MoU) - AGMEMOD Partnership

• Selling point: AGMEMOD’s (bottom up) approach is based on development of country level data and models

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Characteristics (2)

• Integrated agricultural commodity models for EU countries, EU accession states and other countries – EU28

– Macedonia, Bosnia

– Russia, Ukraine

– Turkey

• Bottom-up approach – common commodity and country templates provide a base, but with

possibility to

– reflect the heterogeneous situation of a country’s agricultural system

– built by institutions in each of the modelled countries (instead by one organisation, like AGLINK, FAPRI)

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Main objectives

• Helpful for country (or a group of countries) based policy makers:

– by providing an appreciation for the likely impact of a particular policy in order to identify – at an early stage – any issue that would prevent a policy proposal’s acceptance

– by supporting policy makers with using evidence based decision making in their policy negotiations

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• To generate projections and simulations, to a 10-year horizon, for main agriculture commodities; under normal weather conditions. Useful for public and private stakeholders

• To reflect detail of agriculture at country level, so capturing the inherent heterogeneity of agricultural systems across countries

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WHY using AGMEMOD?

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Monitoring and evaluation

• Policy makers seek for evidence based decision making. Useful to support them in making proper policy choices

• AGMEMODs country models are based on a historical data base, but the future may be adjusted for expected (structural) changes

• AGMEMOD encounters country based experience on data and agricultural markets: benchmarking across regions

• Hereby, AGMEMOD is useful to support stakeholders (public, boards, companies) for making proper market strategy decisions

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Context of decision making

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Prices

Production

Supply and

Use

Market price

support

Budgetary

limitations

Trade

agreements

Macroeconomic

iteractions

Up- and down-

Stream sectors

Agricultural

households

Environmental

aspects

Regional and farm-

specific aspectsFactor use and

mobility

Dynamic

adjustments

Technology

changes

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Use for market analyses

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WHAT is in AGMEMOD?

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Agricultural market experience

• Expert information, e.g.

– on crop and animal yields trends (floods; land degradation, seed improvements, irrigation,...): relate to current & potential yield/ha, yield/animal

– on commodity market developments: related to policy, returns/costs ratios, available land & animals

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country market experts used to notice future developments that deviate from what happened in the

past

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Commodities: at country level

Grains and oilseeds..

..livestock and dairy

sugar beet.. ..potatoes

oranges.. ..olive oil

tomato paste.. ..tobacco

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Annual data: at country level

• Market balances: production, consumption, imports,

exports, feed/food/seed use, bioethanol/ biodiesel use

• Prices:

• national commodity prices

• world commodity prices (drivers)

• Policy instruments: national and EU; greening (drivers)

• Macroeconomic: population, GDP, inflation, exchange rate

(drivers)

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Observed data (historical database): start year mostly from 1980; end year varies per country

Eurostat and national sources

Basic framework for crops

Price linkage equations

Area harvested

Yield

Feed Use

Non-Feed Use

Production

Beginning Stock

Domestic Use

Ending Stock

Imports

Exports

Sum country’s Net

Export Supply

net export supply

World Net Export demand

World Prices

WTO

Country Models

>, =, < AG-MEMOD key price

Population, Inflation rates, GDP, Exchange rates

Minimum prices, Intervention prices, Supporting measures

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Relations across countries (prices)

Key price countries:

• France: wheat, barley, maize

• World market: rapeseed, sunflower seed, soybeans

• Italy: durum wheat, olive oil

• Germany: other cereals

• Germany: beef, pig meat, poultry

• Ireland: lamb meat

• France: cheese

• The Netherlands: SMP

• Germany: butter

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Key prices drive the national prices

Relations across commodity markets

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HOW to use AGMEMOD?

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User interface

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•

Output (analysis) interface

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Read more

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F. Chantreuil, K. Hanharan and M. van Leeuwen (eds) (2012)

The future of EU agricultural markets by AGMEMOD. Published by Springer.

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Thanks for your attention

www.agmemod.eu

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