Federal R&D Budgets in FY 2016: Context and Update

Matt HourihanJune 24, 2015for the American Society of Mechanical Engineers

AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

R&D as a Share of GDP by Funder

Total Federal Industry Other

Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Research as a Share of GDP by Funder

Total Research Federal Research Industry Research Other

Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Federal Research Funding by Disciplineas a Share of GDP, 1978-2014

Life Sci

Physical Sci

Engineering

Environ Sci

Math / Comp

Social Sciences

Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. FY 2013 and 2014 are preliminary. GDP figures are from OMB. © 2015 AAAS

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

Federal Funds for EngineeringResearch, 1992 - 2012

(billions of constant 2015 dollars)

Aeronautical

Metallurgy &materials

Electrical

Astronautical

Civil

Chemical

Mechanical

Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. © 2015 AAAS

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Other AppliedResearch

Other BasicResearch

AppliedResearch atUniversities

Basic Researchat Universities

Basic and Applied Engineering Research Funding, FY 2012obligations in millions

Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. © 2015 AAAS

Defense Discretionary

$528 [Defense R&D]$77

Nondefense Discretionary

$495

[Nondefense R&D]$69

Social Security$938

Medicare$583

Medicaid$351

Other Mandatory$670

Net Interest$283

Composition of the Proposed FY 2016 BudgetTotal Outlays = $4.0 trillion

outlays in billions of dollars

Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2016. Projected deficit is $474 billion. © 2015 AAAS

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

Actual Base Budget Authority

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester Baseline Actual Base Budget Authority

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester Baseline Actual Base Budget Authority

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester Baseline

Actual Base Budget Authority Current Law (Sequester Levels)

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester Baseline

Actual Base Budget Authority Current Law (Sequester Levels)

President's FY 2016 Budget

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester Baseline

Actual Base Budget Authority Current Law (Sequester Levels)

President's FY 2016 Budget Budget ConferenceBased on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015

6.4%

-35.5%0.9%

2.2%

5.0%

8.1%

12.6%

17.8%

20.5%

23.3%

44.8%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

TOTAL

Justice (DHS)

Space

Health (includes NIH)

General Science (NSF, DOE SC)

Defense Activities

Environment Agencies

Transportation

Agriculture

Applied Energy Programs

Commerce (includes NIST)

FY16 R&D in the Base Budget by Functionpercent change from FY 2015, nominal dollars

Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and agency budget documents. © 2015 AAAS

Major Funding Priorities for FY16 Advanced Manufacturing Low-carbon energy Climate research and earth observation Agricultural R&D Infrastructure R&D Antibiotic Resistance* Precision Medicine* Discovery Science:

Neuroscience; Advanced computing

COMPETES Agencies R&D: $12.1 billion, +6.6%

*New for FY16

DOD, $71.9

HHS (NIH), $31.0

DOE, $12.5

NASA, $12.2

NSF, $6.3

USDA, $2.9

Commerce, $2.1All Other, $6.2

Total R&D by Agency, FY 2016budget authority in billions of dollars

Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents and data. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2015 AAAS

Total R&D = $145.3 billion

National Security Request:

DOD S&T flat, DARPA +1.9% 8.3% cut to basic research

Approps: Senate refutes basic research cuts Cuts for DARPA Defense bill blocked in Senate

DHS: NBAF funding completed; moderate cuts elsewhere in S&T Directorate

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

Trends in DOD Science & Technologyin billions of constant FY 2015 dollars

ARRA Medical researchAdv Tech (6.3) Applied (6.2)Basic (6.1)

Source: DOD R-1 and historical data. Medical Research is appropriated outside RDT&E title. © 2015 AAAS

Energy Request Technology offices: renewed

focus on efficiency, renewables, ARPA-E, smart grid, CCS Manufacturing office to

double

DOE Science: +5.4% Advanced Computing:

+14.8% Domestic fusion research cut

15% ITER flat

Small boost for EFRCS; Hubs funding continues

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

DOE Office of Science BudgetsBudget Authority in millions of constant FY 2015 dollars

Adv Sci Comp Basic Energy Sci

Bio Env Res Fusion Energy

High-Energy Phys Nuclear Phys

Source: Historical DOE budget data and FY16 request.© 2015 AAAS

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

ARPA-E

Efficiency and Renewables

Nuclear Energy

Fossil Energy

Electricity Delivery

Science

FY 2016 Energy Program Budgetspercent change from FY15, nominal dollars

Request House Senate Cmte

Figures include non-R&D. Inflation is 1.7 percent. © 2015 AAAS

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

Adv Computing

Basic Energy Sci

Bio and Environ Res

Fusion Energy

High-Energy Phys

Nuclear Physics

TOTAL SCIENCE

FY 2016 Office of Science Budgetspercent change from FY15, nominal dollars

Request House Senate Cmte

Note: Inflation is 1.6 percent. © 2015 AAAS

National Science Foundation Total Budget: +5.2% Highest relative changes:

SBE: +7.1%; Engineering: +6.4%

New priority areas: Food-water-energy; climate resilience

Approps: Senate flat; major cuts to GEO and SBE in House

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

NSF Directorate Budgets in AppropriationsBudget authority in millions of constant FY 2015 dollars

MPS GEO ENG BIO CISE SBE

Source: NSF data, the FY 2016 request, and current appropriations. GEO and CISE have been adjusted for comparability. © 2015 AAAS

NASA Total budget: +2.9%

6.1% below FY05 levels

Familiar contours: Earth Science, Space Technology,

Commercial Crew program boosted Cuts to Planetary Science,

Astrophysics Exploration Systems Development,

Aeronautics funding reduced

Since FY10: Earth Sci +22.6% Planetary -9.6% Astrophys -0.7% Webb +28.1% Heliophys -2.9%

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

$20

ARRA OtherExploration Systems Space OperationsSpace Technology AeronauticsScience

NASA Budget, FY 2007 - 2016in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars

"Other" includes support, construction, OIG, and education programs. © 2015 AAAS

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Space Operations

Exploration

Space Technology

Aeronautics

JWST

Heliophysics

Astrophysics

Planetary Science

Earth Science

TOTAL SCIENCE

FY 2016 NASA Budgetspercent change from FY15, nominal dollars

Request House Senate Cmte

Note: Inflation is 1.6 percent. © 2015 AAAS

Advanced Manufacturing National Network of Manufacturing Innovation proposal revived

NIST Labs also boosted across an array of areas

EERE AM office doubled; NSF Cyber-physical systems Approps: ‘no thanks’, it seems

Climate and Environment NOAA Office of Research: Major (~20%) boost for climate research USGS: +14%, focus on climate resilience; NASA Earth Science boost EPA S&T moderately increased Approps: ‘no thanks’, it seems

National Institutes of Health $1 billion increase (+3.3%) Largest relative increases:

Alzheimer’s research, translational science

New initiatives: Antibiotic Resistance: $100 million

for NIAID $200 million for Precision Medicine

Large increase for Big Data BRAIN Initiative contribution

increases to $135 million Success rate: 19.3% Approps: Surprising increases?

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

Figure 1: NIH Budget(Constant 2015 dollars in billions)

ARRA Funding General Med SciCancer NIAIDHeart Lung Blood NIDDKMental Health All Other

Source: AAAS data and agency budget documents. Excludes Ebola-related fundng in FY 2015. © 2015 AAAS

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

National Institutes of Health Obligations, 2003-2014Percent change since FY03, adjusted for BRDPI

Source: Historical obligations data and BRDPI deflators from the NIH budget office. © 2015 AAAS

NIH Total

Most individual ICs fall within this band

NIAID

Looking ahead…

Democratic roadblocks

Size and composition of the discretionary budget? Can R&D stay ahead of the curve?

Deficits have fallen, but big-picture fiscal challenges remain largely unchanged Debt limit, entitlement growth

$10

$11

$12

$13

$14

$15

$16

$17

$18

$19

$2020

07

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

NIST, NSF and DOE ScienceBudgets in America COMPETES

in billions of constant 2015 dollars

COMPETES 2007 Path ARRACOMPETES 2010 Path ActualsGrowth at BCA Cap Rate* Growth to Keep Pace With GDPHouse GOP COMPETES House Dem COMPETESPresident's Request

*Sequester-level. Based on agency budgets, appropriations documents, and past and proposed COMPETES legislation. © 2015 AAAS

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

NSF Directorate Budgets and House COMPETESFunding in millions, constant 2015 dollars

Biological Science Computing** Engineering

Geoscience** Physical Science Social Science

*House proposal. **Adjusted for comparability. Based on historical agency data. © 2015 AAAS

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

DOE Budgets and House COMPETESFunding in millions, constant 2015 dollars

Nuclear Energy ARPA-E Fossil Energy EERE OE

*House proposal. Based on historical agency data. © 2015 AAAS

For more info…

mhouriha@aaas.org

202-326-6607

http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program