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F ibre BROADBAND futures T h e a r t o f t h e p o s s i b l e / n e c e s s a r y
P e t e r C o c h r a n e
cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org
Green Secure
Available Adaptable
Future Proof People Sparse
Fixed & Mobile People & Things
Transitory & Stable Resilient & Reliable
N ET F R I C T I O N
C a p a c i t y a n d c o n n e c t i v i t y d e f i n e n e t w o r k l o s s e s t h a t u l t i m a t e l y i m p a c t t h e G D P
Poor infrastructure ALWAYS signifies a poor economy
NET TRAFFIC Growth
2000 - 2015
Exponential and no sign of slowing - x 2 < 18 months
>99% of global traffic transported by opticalfibre - the only medium capable…
..international, national, regional, local networks
<5% of net traffic is by 3 and 4G connection - wifi ~ 50%, LAN ~ 45%
Voice
Data
Mobile Communication PB/(Month-Mese)
MOB I LE
2000 - 2015
More mobile (5G) can only be realised throughmore optical fibre in the local loop….
…open 3,4,5G and wifi at the end of every FTTP circuit is essential for the IoT and full mobility…
~ 46 % of globaleconomic output ($32.3T) can benefit from
the Industrial Internet
Why is the net Important ?F u t u r e p r o s p e r i t y w i l l b e d e f i n e d b y b a n d w i d t h
Education Awareness Healthcare
Science Engineering Technology
Creativity Invention Sharing
Design Production Dleivery
Logistics Support After Care
Green +++++ ++++++
~ 46 % of globaleconomic output ($32.3T) can benefit from
the Industrial Internet
Why is the net Important ?F u t u r e p r o s p e r i t y w i l l b e d e f i n e d b y b a n d w i d t h
Education Awareness Healthcare
Science Engineering Technology
Creativity Invention Sharing
Design Production Dleivery
Logistics Support After Care
Green +++++ ++++++
After investing in a visionary Gbit/s network, the City of Chattanooga has transformed into a regional center for technology and innovation.
It is attracting entrepreneurs and technologists from around the country and boasts new business incubators and state-of-the-art public facilities.
Chattanooga has gone from hosting zero venture capital to at least five organized funds with investable capital.
exponential RISEBandwidth Demand outstrips supply
Netcos continue to ask the same dumb questions - why would anyone want :-
• 64kbit/s
• 256kbit/s
• 1Mbit/s
• 10Mbit/s
• 100Mbit/s
• 1000Mbit/s
• 10,000Mbit/s
...and what would they use it for ?
Cus
tom
er D
eman
d
Avai
labl
e
BroadBand
So what of WIRELESS
You cannot defeat the laws of physicsMore towers (>>10x) are unacceptableUniversal coverage needs something new
3, 4 , 5G cannot supply by a BIG marg in
<5% of net traffic is by 3 and 4G connection - wifi ~ 50%, LAN ~ 45%
…open 3,4,5G and wifi at the end of every FTTP circuit is essential for the IoT and full mobility…
Symmetric
Asymmetric
leaders & Laggards
‘Up To’ and ‘Homes Passed’ culture predominates
‘Actually Delivered’ and‘Homes Connected’ arepredominant…
W h e r e a r e t h e w o r l d l e a d e r s h e a d i n g
H E g ets i t !A n d h a s a n a t i o n a l p l a n
T h e f u n d i n g o f c i t i e s a n d c o m m u n i t i e s t o D I Y F T T H /P / B @ 1 G b i t / s t o a t t r a c t n e w b u s i n e s s a n d n e w s t a r t s t o r e j u v i n a t e t h e e c o n o m i e s o f f a i l e d a r e a s
obama o n t h e i nt e rN ETS e e s E U c u l t u r e a s i n n o v a t i o n a n d c h a n g e a v e r s e
"Our companies have created it, expanded it, perfected it in ways that they (Europe) can’t compete,"
t h e us a v i ewResult of and academic analysis
27 October 2015
Bhaskar Chakravorti and Ravi Shankar Chaturvedi
Europe has a digital crisis that has severe consequences for their global competitiveness.
In the ‘Stand Out Category’ of the Global Digital Evolution Index….. …only Switzerland, Ireland, and Estonia, made it!
continent is in the midst of a “digital recession.”
Do we really believe that the UK will become a world leader from the back of the pack ??
If you own an old telephone network every new opportunity looks like an old network upgrade with bigger and better routers…time after time after time…
copper h eadsWinning with 150 year old technology
copper realityW h a t y o u g e t i s n ’ t t h e p r o m i s e
As more users load the same cab le i t get ’s progress ive worse whi l s t s t i l l sa t i s f y ing the ‘Up To’ Promise
Th i s s i tua t ion i s no t go ing to improve o r ge t any be t te r un le s s we manage to change the laws o f phys i c s !
D o w n l o a d O n l y U p l o a d ~ 1 0 %
Fault
Pron
e
Cloud
Killing
Energy hungrySuper
Slo
w
50% of allare due to me !
Faults
Future Limiting
Reverse gear
Loved by vandals
Big and ugly
Hated by councils
Anti-Green Unsustainable
IM IoT TXT B2B C2B C2C eMail TeleCare eTrading Telephony TeleSurgery TeleTraining TeleMedicine Tele Education TeleMaintenance Audio Conferencing Collaborative Supply Collaborative Design Collaborative Games Collaborative Working Collaborative Farming Collaborative Research Collaborative Production
Broadcast TV Broadcast Radio Video on Demand Audio on Demand Music on demand TeleInspection TeleControl ????
Symmetric
An initial ‘Straw Man’ listingPeter Cochrane 1/9/15
Collaborative Computing Collaborative Manufacture 3D Design & Manufacture Sustainable Supply Chains
Sustainable Production Sustainable Recycling Distributed Intelligence Distributed Computing
Video Conferencing Social Networking
Virtual Computing Cloud Computing Sensor Networks Logistics Control Home Working Mobile Futures Virtual Storage Photo Albums Video Albums Virtual Office Smart Cities
????
21C network servicesAsymmetric
IM & TXT et al are stuck in a bandwidth limiting time warp and so are many other services unable to upgraded!
The love of copper lost the UK a £3Bn computer gaming industry (+++) to SEA due to the lack of bandwidth and
connectivity
Copper cables suffer from crosstalk and high attenuation that renders the very expensive and asymmetric
• 74% of digital companies operate outside of London
• Digital job growth to outperform all other categories by 2020
• 1.46M people (7.5%) of workforce employed in the digital industries
• Highest rates of digital employment: London, Bristol & Bath, Reading, Manchester
• Highest Average Co Turnover: Manchester, Belfast, Sheffield, London and South Wales
• Highest digital Co density: Brighton, Hove, London, Reading, Edinburgh, Cambridge
• Fastest growth: Liverpool, London, Belfast, Manchester, Bournemouth, Brighton, Hove,
South Wales, Bristol, Bath
UK DIGITAL ECONOMYExtremely diverse, distributed and in dire need
IoTSmart CitiesCloud ComputingLeading Edge Start Ups
Sustainable CommunitiesCompetitive EconomyEnabled WorkforceImproved MobilityTele-educationTelemedicine
NO FTTP CASUALT I ES
Industry and Institutions Frozen out of markets Emigration of the talented and capable GDP limited and progressively declining
fa r m e rs D I YJ F D I a n d C a n D o C u l t u r e
DIY Community Broadband Wins
FTTP aint rocket science >500 miles laid and growing!
Jersey telco transformation
•1Gbit/s bi-directional
•100% ducted - no overhead
•WiFi + 3G in every terminal
•Future proof and eco friendly
•Reduced Opex, Capex, Fault rates
•Profitability improved within 12 months
•Self funded + copper, lead, plastic recovery
•EU leading commercial community
•Island attracting new business
•FTTH/O/P - No Copper No Cabinets
The world leaders are mandating and building FTTH Gbit/s networks for today and into the future - 1Gbit/s is the base rate/starting point
T IME TO CONS IDER AND TH INKManagement by BS & misinformation is dangerous, damaging, big negative
The world laggards are hanging onto their 150 year old copper platforms and misguidedly building unreliable and non-ecological solutions that can never deliver onyesterdays demand let alone todays or that of the near future
A Tyranny of Propaganda Progressively Displacing Evidence and Wisdom
T IME TO CONS IDER AND TH INKIf incumbents dominate a market then all competition and innovation ceases
It might work in PR and politics but in
technology and economics it is fatal !!
A Tyranny of Truth To Displace a Warped Market Model
T IME TO CONS IDER AND TH INKThe UK needs a real competitive landscape with freedom to be different
Let incumbents and commercial companies do their own thing and choose their own course
Assist/fund communities to install the own FTTH systems
Support towns and cities to do their own thing and install dark networks
Progressively Displacing Evidence and Wisdom
Management by BS & misinformation is dangerous, damaging, big negative UK TO BE FROZEN OUT ?
No Smart Cities No eHealthCare No TeleEducation No Cloud Computing Ineffective IoT Systems Reduced Market Access Sidelined Service Economy Crippled Mobility/Flexibility Greater Friction/Inefficiency Disadvantage Manufacturing Loss of Existing Leadership Positions ++++
Bi furcat ing wor ld - leaders / laggards - f ibre /copper
Laggards Limited (Copper)
Leaders Unlimited (Fibre)Green Adaptive Pace Setting Future Proof Top Economies Can Do Anything Prime Innovators Leading Creators Market Dominating