Financial Policy in Ukraine:Key Issues for Analysis

Lesya Ilchenko-Syuyva,Associate Professor, Economic Policy Department National Academy of Public Administration, Office of the President of Ukraine e-mail: lesya@rocketmail.com

Policy consistency in overcoming current financial crisis

Selective Macroeconomic Data

Real GDP CPI

2006 107,3 110,3

2007 107,9 111,6

2008 102,3 116,6

2009 84,9 (-15,1) 122,3 (+22,3)

Financial policy

Fiscal - MoF budgets public revenues and expenditures

Monetary – Central banks money supply

Public Finance Individual Finance Legal Entities Finance

International Finance

Monetary policy

In Ukraine it mainly relay on banking sector (~180 banks, but only 150 are operating) – under supervision of central bank

Credit (to both individuals and legal entities provided by bank and non-bank financial institutions – with are under supervision of the State Committee on Financial Services Market of Ukraine)

Monetary policy

Policy Cycle

? Problem Identification ?

? Background ?

? Alternatives ?

? Consultations ?

Decision-Making

Action Plan

Monitoring

Evaluation

Key issue -1

“Cheshire Cat” she began, rather timidly, “Would you please tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?”

“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” said the Cat.

“I don’t much care where,” said Alice.

“Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,” said the Cat.

L. CARROL, “Alice in Wonderland”

Problem Identification

Key Issue - 2

Evidence Based Policy-Making Background information as a basis for sound

policy (bank secrecy) Alternatives Consultations

Key Issue - 3

Transparency in Policy-Making Duplication of responsibilities (MoF vs. Central

Bank) Sticking to institutionalized proceduresSticking to institutionalized procedures Consultations Cooperation with civil society

Key Issue - 4

Policy Effectiveness and Efficiency How to measure? How to assess policy at least medium-run

effects (time-leg for both fiscal and monetary policy is 1.5 – 2 years)

Top-down vs. bottom-up assessment Top-down vs. bottom-up assessment

Key Issues - 5

Capacity Building MoF – “being bureaucrats”

NBU – “being bankers” Outsourcing – nice option but… Academic education Academic education In-service trainingIn-service training

Thank you for your kind attention!