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DERAYAH’S DIRECTION Investment Outlook 1 st Quarter, 2010 NOTICE OF DISCLAIMER While every precaution has been taken in the preparation of this document, Derayah Financial assumes no responsibility for errors, omissions, or for any damages resulting from the use of the information herein. Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of other companies and used for the purpose of explanation and evaluation, without intent to infringe. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. This document is not and should not be construed an offer to sell securities or investment products. This document does not purport to incorporate all relevant information and as such should not be deemed as a formal investment advice or recommendation. Investors should consult an authorized financial advisor and make individual decisions. Derayah shall not be liable for any direct or indirect loss arising out of investments based on this document. This disclaimer statement, presented on this page, is an integral part of this document. Should this page of the document, in its electronic or printed formats, be lost, deleted, destroyed or otherwise discarded, this disclaimer statement applies despite the consequences.
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Page 1: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

DERAYAH’S DIRECTION

Investment Outlook

1st Quarter, 2010

NOTICE OF DISCLAIMER

While every precaution has been taken in the preparation of this document, Derayah Financial assumes no responsibility for errors, omissions, or for any damages resulting from the use of the

information herein. Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of other companies and used for the purpose of explanation and evaluation, without intent to infringe.

Past performance is not indicative of future returns. This document is not and should not be construed an offer to sell securities or investment products. This document does not purport to incorporate

all relevant information and as such should not be deemed as a formal investment advice or recommendation. Investors should consult an authorized financial advisor and make individual decisions.

Derayah shall not be liable for any direct or indirect loss arising out of investments based on this document.

This disclaimer statement, presented on this page, is an integral part of this document. Should this page of the document, in its electronic or printed formats, be lost, deleted, destroyed or otherwise

discarded, this disclaimer statement applies despite the consequences.

Page 2: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

CONTENTS

Summary of market performance for the last quarter1

2

Outlook for various asset classes2

Derayah’s recommended tactical asset allocation3

Page 3: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

3

EMERGING EQUITIES CONTINUED THEIR STELLAR PERFORMANCE IN Q4 2009

Returns

Sep – Dec 2009

3.7%

-0.8%

-0.9%

0.1%

8.3%

-3.2%

Developed equities1

Fixed income securities2

EM real estate3

Money market4

Emerging Equities5

Saudi Equities6

27.0%

9.0%

54.8%

0.5%

74.5%

27.5%

Returns

Jan – Dec 2009

Representative Benchmarks for asset classes:

1. Developed equities – MSCI World equity index

2. Fixed income - JP Morgan Global aggregate bond index

3. Real estate – MSCI EM real estate index

4. Money market – NCB 1 month SAR interbank offer rate

5. Emerging equities – MSCI Emerging Markets equity index

6.Saudi equities – TASI (Tadawul All Share Index)

Source: Bloomberg

Page 4: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

4

-3.2%

-17.7%

-6.1%

-10.4%

-6.2%

-3.1%

2.0%

17.9%

11.5%

5.5%

5.4%

4.1%

US

(S&P 500)

UK (FTSE

100)

Japan

(Nikkei 225)

India

(BSE Sensex)

China

(Shanghai)

Brazil

(IBOV Index)

Saudi Arabia

(Tadawul)

UAE

(DFM 20)

Qatar

(DSM 20)

Kuwait

(KWSEIDX)

Bahrain

(BHSEASI)

Oman

(MSM 30)

Sep to Dec 2009 Jan to Dec 2009

De

ve

lop

ed

Em

erg

ing

GC

CPercent returns

27.5%

10.2%

1.1%

-10.0%

-19.2%

17.1%

23.5%

22.1%

19.0%

81.0%

80.0%

82.7%

Source: Bloomberg

BRAZIL, CHINA AND INDIA HAVE PROVIDED THE HIGHEST YTD RETURNS

In 2009,

Saudi Arabia

was the best

performing

GCC market

Page 5: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

5

OVER THE LONG TIME HORIZON ALSO, EMERGING EQUITIES HAVE BEEN AT

THE FOREFRONT OF CREATING INVESTOR WEALTH

Indexed returns of various asset classes for the last 20 years from earliest available date

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Jun/89

Jun/90

Jun/91

Jun/92

Jun/93

Jun/94

Jun/95

Jun/96

Jun/97

Jun/98

Jun/99

Jun/00

Jun/01

Jun/02

Jun/03

Jun/04

Jun/05

Jun/06

Jun/07

Jun/08

Jun/09

(Compounded annual returns)

CAGR

Value of 100 invested in June 1989

9.39%Emerging Equity1

9.06%Local Equity2

7.19%Fixed Income3

4.38%Developed Equity4

2.88%Money Market5

Real Estate6 -4.2%

Representative Benchmarks for asset classes:

1.Emerging equities – MSCI EM Equities Index

2. Local equities – Tadawul All Shares (TASI) Index

3. Fixed JP Morgan Global aggregate bond index

4 Developed Equity – MSCI World Index

5. Money market – NCB 1 month interbank offer rate

6. Real Estate – MSCI Emerging Market Real Estate Index

Page 6: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

CONTENTS

Summary of market performance for the last quarter1

6

Outlook for various asset classes2

Derayah’s recommended tactical asset allocation3

- GCC Equity

- Developed Equity

- Emerging Equity

- Emerging Real Estate

- Money Markets

- Fixed Income/ Sukuk

Page 7: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

DERAYAH TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION

7

Fixed Income

(Sukuk)

Moderately Overweight

Developed

Equity

Neutral

.Emerging

Equity

Moderately Overweight

Money Markets Neutral

.

Emerging

Real estate

Neutral

.

Asset class Recommendation Comments

+

GCC

Equity

Neutral

.

+

Page 8: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

- GCC Equity

- Developed Equity

- Emerging Equity

- Emerging Real Estate

- Money Markets

- Fixed Income/Sukuk

CONTENTS

Summary of economic performance for the last quarter1

8

Outlook for various asset classes2

Derayah’s recommended tactical asset allocation3

Page 9: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

WE MAINTAIN OUR NEUTRAL STANCE ON GCC EQUITIES

9

Neutral

Investment RecommendationCurrent P/Es are higher than the long term

average for GCC markets

Current P/Es are higher than the long term

average for the TASI Index

Equities > GCC Equities

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09

Average 18.9x

Current 29.4x

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09

Source: Bloomberg

Average 17..9x

Current 19.8x

P/E (Price to Earnings) ratios are calculated on current price vs. earnings for the previous four quarters

• GCC market is trading above its long-term

average P/E, which limits potential for upside

• Oil prices have stabilized and could show an

upward trend mainly due depreciation of the

USD, bolstering nominal flows into the region

• Larger budget outlay by key economies such

as Saudi Arabia is expected to add to the

momentum of economic activity to the region,

partially shielding it from global downturns

Page 10: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

- GCC Equity

- Developed Equity

- Emerging Equity

- Emerging Real Estate

- Money market

- Fixed income/Sukuk

CONTENTS

Summary of economic performance for the last quarter1

10

Outlook for various asset classes2

Derayah’s recommended tactical asset allocation3

Page 11: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

GCC Equity

Developed

Equity

Emerging

Equity

Emerging

Real Estate

Money

Markets

US

Euro Zone

Developed

Asia

WE MAINTAIN A NEUTRAL STANCE FOR DEVELOPED EQUITIES

11

Developed equities comprises three major markets:

Developed

equity

+

-

-

.

Moderately Underweight – Appreciation of Yen will

hamper the Japan’s economic growth

Moderately Underweight – Withdrawal of stimulus

plans will bear heavily upon the region’s growth

Moderately Overweight – US corporates have accumulated

high cash balances. There are also expectations of

increasing profitability in the coming quarters

Investment recommendation - Neutral on

Asset classFixed

Income/Sukuk

Equities > Developed Equities

Page 12: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

WE RECOMMEND A MODERATE OVERWEIGHT STANCE ON US EQUITIES

12

Moderately Overweight

Investment RecommendationCurrent P/E for S&P 500 are lower than the long

term average

Cash balances of US companies have shown

improvement

Equities > Developed Equities > US

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09

Source: Bloomberg

Average 19.3x Current 18.9x

Source: Schroder’s

Current 1.3

US companies have accumulated strong cash

balances, which could be a positive catalyst for

the market. At the same time, expectations of

stronger US profitability in the coming quarters,

driven by a combination of recovery and rising

margins should benefit the market as well

Schroders

Morgan Stanley

Consumer spending growth in the US has been

stronger than expected, giving signs of better

economic recovery in 2010

Percentage of GDP

P/E (Price to Earnings) ratios are calculated on current price vs. earnings for the previous four quarters

Page 13: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

WE RECOMMEND A MODERATE UNDERWEIGHT STANCE ON NON US DEVELOPED

EQUITIES

13

Moderately Underweight

Investment RecommendationCurrent P/Es are higher than the long term

average P/E for European Union

Current P/Es are higher than the long term

average P/E for Japan’s Nikkei

Equities > Developed Equities > Euro Zone / Developed Asia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

Source: Bloomberg

Average 22.1x

Current 25x

-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

Source: Bloomberg

Average 25.3x

Current 47.9x

Withdrawal of monetary and fiscal stimulus will

hamper the performance of the European

economy and markets and when the tightening

starts in earnest, markets will consolidate at best

Morgan Stanley

BNP Paribas IM

The stronger Yen is weighing on the EPS revision

momentum and adding to deflationary pressures.

Lending remains muted and even relative trend

indicators do not point to a lasting performance

P/E (Price to Earnings) ratios are calculated on current price vs. earnings for the previous four quarters

Page 14: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

- GCC Equity

- Developed Equity

- Emerging Equity

- Emerging Real Estate

- Money Markets

- Fixed Income/Sukuk

CONTENTS

Summary of economic performance for the last quarter1

14

Outlook for various asset classes2

Derayah’s recommended tactical asset allocation3

Page 15: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Fixed

Income/Sukuk

GCC Equity

Developed

Equity

Emerging

Equity

Emerging

Real Estate

Money

Markets

Emerging

Europe

Latin

America

WE RECOMMEND AN MODERATE OVERWEIGHT STANCE ON EMERGING EQUITIES

15

Emerging

equity

+

Emerging

Asia

+

++

+

Moderately Overweight- Growth in this region will be

driven by economic recovery in Brazil

Moderately Overweight

Overweight- Growth in the emerging markets will be

lead by Asia

Investment recommendation - Moderately

overweight on emerging equity

Equities > Emerging Equity

Page 16: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

WE RECOMMEND A MODERATE OVERWEIGHT STANCE ON EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES

16

Moderate Overweight

Investment RecommendationCurrent P/Es are higher than the long term

average for Emerging markets

Equities > Emerging Equity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

Average 13.9x

Source: Bloomberg

Current 23.0x

MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index

All regions of the emerging world are in recovery.

In Asia, the recovery is broad and mature enough

to bring monetary policy tightening to the fore. It is

also well under way in Latin America, particularly

Brazil and Mexico

Barclays

Merrill Lynch

Rising export demand from the global economic

recovery will likely emerge as the new source of

growth in EMs in 2010. This should relatively

benefit EMEA, which has had an increase in

export orientation, in contrast to a rising home

bias in Latin America and, increasingly, in Asia.

Lead economic indicators indicate strong Asian

activity

-3

2

7

12

17

1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Current 17

Source: Bloomberg

Source: BNP Paribas

P/E (Price to Earnings) ratios are calculated on current price vs. earnings for the previous four quarters

Page 17: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

- GCC Equity

- Developed Equity

- Emerging Equity

- Emerging Real Estate

- Money Markets

- Fixed Income/Sukuk

CONTENTS

Summary of economic performance for the last quarter1

17

Outlook for various asset classes2

Derayah’s recommended tactical asset allocation3

Page 18: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

WE MAINTAIN OUR NEUTRAL STANCE ON EMERGING MARKET REAL ESTATE

18

Neutral

Investment RecommendationMSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index

Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate

Source: Bloomberg

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09

Current 141

Low 78.3

Emerging market Real Estate has posted an

impressive recovery in 2009 from its lows of

2008.

The primary reasons for the rebound have been

• Relatively lower levels of leverage compared to

developed economies

• Low interest rates to lock-in cheap mortgage

rates (esp. in the residential sector)

• Continued genuine demand due to urbanization,

especially in selected markets like Saudi Arabia,

which should lead to upturn in prices in select

locations

However, uncertainty of the global economic

recovery is expected to restrict potential for

upward moves

Page 19: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

- GCC Equity

- Developed Equity

- Emerging Equity

- Emerging Real Estate

- Money Markets

- Fixed Income/Sukuk

CONTENTS

Summary of economic performance for the last quarter1

19

Outlook for various asset classes2

Derayah’s recommended tactical asset allocation3

Page 20: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

WE RECOMMEND A NEUTRAL STANCE FOR MONEY MARKETS

20

Neutral

Investment RecommendationMoney market returns for SIBOR and USD LIBOR

Money Market

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Jan-02 Apr-04 Jul-06 Oct-08

Source: Bloomberg

1 month USD LIBOR

1 month SIBOR

• Money market instruments provide an ideal

avenue of capital preservation especially due to

our outlook of increased volatility of riskier

asset classes

• However, imminent economic recovery (though

unlikely)could result in opportunity loss for the

investor

• Higher Inflation (due to economic recovery)

could also mean that the real return on Money

Market Instruments are either close to zero or

even negative

Page 21: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

- GCC Equity

- Developed Equity

- Emerging Equity

- Emerging Real Estate

- Money Markets

- Fixed Income/Sukuk

CONTENTS

Summary of economic performance for the last quarter1

21

Outlook for various asset classes2

Derayah’s recommended tactical asset allocation3

Page 22: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

GCC Equity

Developed

Equity

Emerging

Equity

Emerging

Real Estate

Money

Markets

Government

Debt

Investment

Grade

Corporate

High Yield

Corporate

WE RECOMMEND A MODERATELY OVERWEIGHT STANCE FOR FIXED INCOME

22

Fixed income comprises three different sub-classes:

-

++

Fixed Income/

Sukuk

Overweight- Credit spreads still lie above the pre-crisis

level

Overweight- With the interest rates expected to lie low for

some time, IG bonds remain attractive relative to cash

Moderately underweight- Withdrawal of monetary and

fiscal stimulus will put pressure on the government bond

yields

Investment recommendation - Focus on

corporate bonds+Fixed

Income/Sukuk

Fixed Income

++

Page 23: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

WE MAINTAIN AN UNDERWEIGHT STANCE FOR GOVERNMENT BONDS/SUKUK

23

Moderately Underweight

Investment RecommendationSpreads between 10-year and 2-year US

Treasuries

US Treasury marketable securities issuances

Fixed Income > Government Debt

6.40 6.35 6.206.90

8.40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

US Treasury issuance 2005-2009, USD trillion

Source: US Treasury

• We expect yield curves in the major economies

to experience a bear flattening, with 2-year

yields rising faster than the 10-year. This would

be in anticipation of a tightening of monetary

policy by central banks, which has usually

followed a fall in the unemployment rate

• The expected withdrawal of QE(Quantitative

Easing) and the fiscal woes of some OECD

(Organization for Economic Co-operation and

Development) economies, such as the UK,

have also put pressure on government bond

yields

Schroders

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Dec-89 Dec-94 Dec-99 Dec-04

Average 103 bps

Current 271 bps

bps

Page 24: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09

WE MAINTAIN OUR OVERWEIGHT STANCE FOR INVESTMENT GRADE AND HIGH YIELD

BONDS/SUKOOK

24

Source: Bloomberg

bps

Overweight: Investment Grade

Overweight: High Yield

Investment RecommendationInvestment grade bond spreads in US and Europe

have normalized

GCC Sukuk yields have followed in line with their

global peers*

Source: Derayah

Max 17.6%

Current 8.6%

* Equal weighted basket of local and foreign currency Investment grade sukuk, average maturity 3 years

Fixed Income > Corporate Investment Grade

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

Oct-02 Oct-04 Oct-06 Oct-08

Current 125.5

• While HY spreads have narrowed, spreads

continue to look attractive on valuation grounds

given that they are still elevated relative to pre-

crisis levels

• Interest rates are expected to stay low for some

time. This suggests that IG should remain

attractive relative to cash given the strong

search for yield amongst investors

Schroders

BNP Paribas

As US non-financial companies reduce their debt

levels while profits grow again, we expect

fundamental improvements to support market

spreads

Page 25: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

CONTENTS

Summary of economic performance for the last quarter1

25

Outlook for various asset classes2

Derayah’s recommended tactical asset allocation3

Page 26: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

26

7% 6%

92% 93%Money Market

Fixed income

Q4-20091 Q1-20102

The minimum risk portfolio intends to

• Mimic the return of cash; and

• Have very low volatility / risk

The portfolio is best suited for investors who intend to

preserve capital and accept minimum risk.

Suitable investor profile includes

• Investors who need their money in a relatively short

time frame

• Investors who are negatively impacted by any loss in

value

• Risk Averse investors

1 This allocation is the final portfolio that includes Derayah’s recommendations for Tactical shifts to the Strategic Asset Allocation

for the prior quarter i.e. Q4 2009 2 This allocation is the final portfolio that includes Derayah’s recommendations for Tactical shifts to the Strategic Asset Allocation

for the current quarter i.e. Q1 2010

Minimum risk portfolio

Portfolio Characteristics:

• Expected Annual Volatility: 1%

• Historical Probability of loss in any year: 0Based on Historical Data from 1985 to 2009

Page 27: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

27

The low risk portfolio intends to

• Generate higher return than cash and

• Have low volatility

The portfolio is best suited for investors who choose

to invest primarily in fixed income assets with an

intention to preserve capital while accepting some risk

for higher returns.

Suitable investor profiles include

• Investors who seek regular cash flow from their

investments

• Investors who value lower risk while accepting a lower

return

Low risk portfolio

23%27%

62% 55%

5%7%

2%2%

2%2%

5% 7%

Fixed Income

GCC Equity

Developed Equity

Money Market

Emerging Equity

Emerging Real Estate

Q4-20091 Q1-20102

1 This allocation is the final portfolio that includes Derayah’s recommendations for Tactical shifts to the Strategic Asset Allocation

for the prior quarter i.e. Q4 2009 2 This allocation is the final portfolio that includes Derayah’s recommendations for Tactical shifts to the Strategic Asset Allocation

for the current quarter i.e. Q1 2010

Portfolio Characteristics:

• Expected Annual Volatility: 5%

• Historical Probability of loss in any year: 8%Based on Historical Data from 1985 to 2009

Page 28: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

28

The conservative risk portfolio intends to

• Achieve a balance between risk and return

• Have relatively low volatility

The portfolio is best suited to an investor who favors a

diversified portfolio with a tilt towards safety.

Suitable investor profile includes

• Investors who want to balance risk and return of their

portfolio

• Investors who have uncertain liquidity needs

Conservative portfolio

Fixed Income

GCC Equity

Developed Equity

Emerging Equity

Emerging Real Estate

62%55%

12%

14%

7%

6%

8%

8%

12%16%

Q4-20091 Q1-20102

1 This allocation is the final portfolio that includes Derayah’s recommendations for Tactical shifts to the Strategic Asset Allocation

for the prior quarter i.e. Q4 20092 This allocation is the final portfolio that includes Derayah’s recommendations for Tactical shifts to the Strategic Asset Allocation

for the current quarter i.e. Q1 2010

Portfolio Characteristics:

• Expected Annual Volatility: 10%

• Historical Probability of loss in any year: 28%Based on Historical Data from 1985 to 2009

Page 29: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

29

The moderate risk portfolio intends to

• Generate higher returns by focusing more on capital

appreciation and

• Have medium volatility

The portfolio is best suited for investors who intend to

adopt a higher risk approach and is more oriented to

higher returns than lower risk.

Suitable investor profile includes

• Investors who are comfortable with higher volatility to

earn higher returns

• Investors who have a long term investing horizon

• Investors who's lifestyle would not be damaged by loss

of value.

Moderate risk portfolio

38%

29%

17%

21%

12%

11%

15%

16%

18%24%

Fixed Income

GCC Equity

Developed Equity

Emerging Equity

Emerging Real Estate

Q4-20091 Q1-20102

1 This allocation is the final portfolio that includes Derayah’s recommendations for Tactical shifts to the Strategic Asset Allocation

for the prior quarter i.e. Q4 2009 2 This allocation is the final portfolio that includes Derayah’s recommendations for Tactical shifts to the Strategic Asset Allocation

for the current quarter i.e. Q1 2010

Portfolio Characteristics:

• Expected Annual Volatility: 15%

• Historical Probability of loss in any year: 32%Based on Historical Data from 1985 to 2009

Page 30: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

30

The aggressive portfolio intends to

• generate high returns over the long term

• have high volatility

The portfolio is best suited for investors who can

accept high risk to generate high long term returns.

Suitable investor profile includes

• Young investors who have a long investment horizon

• Investors who are looking for capital appreciation to

increase their savings pool

• Investors who’s lifestyle would not be affected by any

decline in investment value

Aggressive portfolio

GCC Equity

Developed Equity

Fixed income

Emerging Equity

Emerging Real Estate

21%

4%

21%

27%

15%

15%

21%

22%

22%

32%

Q4-20091 Q1-20102

1 This allocation is the final portfolio that includes Derayah’s recommendations for Tactical shifts to the Strategic Asset Allocation

for the prior quarter i.e. Q4 2009 2 This allocation is the final portfolio that includes Derayah’s recommendations for Tactical shifts to the Strategic Asset Allocation

for the current quarter i.e. Q1 2010

Portfolio Characteristics:

• Expected Annual Volatility: 20%

• Historical Probability of loss in any year: 36%Based on Historical Data from 1985 to 2009

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31

Strategic Portfolio vs. Derayah Tactical Allocation

1Tactical Portfolio structure is based on Derayah’s view on performance of various asset classes that the investors can get exposure to via Investment funds on

our platform. Tactical asset allocation aims at taking advantage of temporary dislocations in various markets to generate excess return for investors.

* The benchmark represents the return of Derayah’s long term Strategic Portfolio. Please refer to Appendix for composition of Derayah Strategic Portfolios

CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE COMPARISON (Q3 2009 AND Q4 2009)

0.66%

5.92%

10.08%

12.66%

15.02%

0.54%

5.96%

9.75%

12.40%

14.44%

Minimum Risk Low Risk Conservative Moderate Aggressive

Benchmark* Derayah Tactical Portfolio

Page 32: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

32

APPENDIX

Page 33: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

DERAYAH’S FRAMEWORK FOR PORTFOLIO STRUCTURING AND TACTICAL ASSET

ALLOCATION

33

1.Develop strategic

asset allocation

2.Synthesize tactical

asset allocation shifts

3.Recommend tactical

allocation to investors

• Derayah has developed

its proprietary framework

that creates an efficient

frontier including a

diversified set of asset

classes

• For various risk levels

the target portfolio is

designed to maximize

risk adjusted returns

based on historical and

expected future

performance of these

asset classes*

• Derayah collates analyst

expectations on

expected performance

of various asset classes

from a selected set of

global Asset

Management firms

• Derayah creates its own

consensus rating for

each asset class based

on its framework and

analyst expectations.

This rating is then used

to arrive at the tactical

shifts for the weights in

each asset class

included in the portfolios

• Tactical asset allocation

recommends that the

investors adjust their the

long term asset

allocation to take

advantage of

opportunities rising from

short term market

dislocations to generate

higher returns

• Derayah incorporates

the tactical adjustments

(Step 2) on the strategic

asset allocation (Step 1)

to design the portfolios

Page 34: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

1. FOR THE STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION, WE PERFORMED A MEAN-VARIANCE

OPTIMIZATION USING THE FOLLOWING INPUTS

34

Historical Correlations among various asset classes2

Historical Risk and return for various asset classes1

1Maximum available time period starting January 1970

Mean Variance Optimization – Developed by Harry Markowitz, Mean-variance optimization, is a quantitative asset allocation

technique which allows investors to use diversification to balance the risk and return in their portfolio.

Standard Deviation - A measure of the variability of a data set, or a probability distribution. A low standard deviation indicates that the

portfolio has low uncertainty i.e. returns tend to be very close to the mean, while high standard deviation indicates that the returns are

more uncertain and are spread out over a large range of values.

The output

from the

process is

multiple

optimized

portfolios

that are

suitable for

investors

with various

levels of

risk

tolerance

ASSET CLASS

MSCI

World

JPM Agg

Index

MSCI

EM/Real

Estate

SAR

Interbank

rates

MSCI

Emerging

Mkts

MSCI

GCC

Countries

MSCI World 1.00

JPM Agg Bond Index 0.13 1.00

MSCI EM/Real Estate 0.21 0.12 1.00

SAR Interbank rates -0.12 -0.13 0.05 1.00

MSCI Emerging Mkts 0.72 0.00 0.25 -0.11 1.00

MSCI GCC Countries 0.57 0.12 0.16 -0.08 0.58 1.00

MSCI

World

JPM Agg

Bond

Index

MSCI

EM/Real

Estate

SAR

Interbank

rates

MSCI

Emerging

Mkts

MSCI GCC

Countries

Historical Risk (St Deviation) 14.88% 3.65% 32.00% 0.46% 24.27% 30.03%

Historical Returns 6.38% 7.28% -4.61% 2.85% 10.65% -15.19%

Page 35: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

1. COMPOSITION OF BENCHMARKS*

35

Indices representing Asset Classes:

Murabaha - SAR Interbank Rates Index

Sukuk - JPMorgan Aggregate Bond Index

Real Estate - MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index

Developed Equity - MSCI World Equity Index

Regional Equity - MSCI GCC Countries Index

Emerging Equity - MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index

93%

27%

6%

56%

57%

31%

7%

2%

6%

11%

15%

1%

7%

14%

21%

27%

2%

8%

16%

22%

1%6%

15%22%

30%

Murabaha Sukuk Real Estate Dev Equity Regional Equity Emerging Equity

Min Risk Low Risk Conservative Moderate Aggressive

* As represented by Strategic portfolios

Page 36: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

2. WE COLLECTED AND SYNTHESIZED THE SHORT TERM TACTICAL SHIFTS OF

SEVERAL INVESTMENT STRATEGISTS

36 (++) Overweight (+) Moderately Overweight (--) Underweight (-)Moderately Underweight

Asset Class Sub Asset Class

Fixed Income Short Term Govt Debt - US - ++ +

Fixed Income Short Term Govt Debt - Europe --

Fixed Income Short Term Govt Debt - Developed Asia

Fixed Income Short Term Govt Debt - EmergingCountries -- -

Fixed Income Corporate - Investment Grade ++ ++ + - - ++

Fixed Income Corporate - High yield -- - -

Money Markets USD --

Money Markets EUR

Money Markets SAR --

Real Estate MENA

Real Estate Emerging Markets

Equities Developed Markets

Equities US -- + + ++

Equities Euro Zone + -- - - -

Equities Developed Asia - - --

Equities Emerigng Markets ++ ++ ++ +

Equities Emerging Asia ++ ++ ++ +

Equities Emerging Europe - --

Equities Latin America - --

Equities Africa --Equities GCC

Page 37: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

37

3. WE THEN APPLIED THESE TACTICAL SHIFTS TO OUR STRATEGIC PORTFOLIOS

Minimum Risk

Low Risk

Conservative

Moderate

Aggressive

Strategic portfolios Tactical portfolios

Minimum Risk

Low Risk

Conservative

Moderate

Aggressive

Fixed Income(Sukuk)

Developed Equity

GCC Equity

Money Markets

Emerging Real estate

EmergingEquity

+

.

+

++

.

-

Page 38: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

3. THE CHANGES IN ALLOCASTION ARE GUIDED BY THE QUANTITATIVE SHIFTS

BASED UPON THE FOLLOWING GRID

38

Portfolio Shift View

80% PILE ON!!!

50% Bullish

25% Overweight

10% Moderately Overweight

5% Slightly Overweight

0% Neutral

-5% Slightly Underweight

-10% Moderately Underweight

-25% Underweight

-50% Bearish

-80% AVOID!!!

Page 39: Financial Services Industry: A Primer · MSCI Emerging Markets Real Estate Index Investment Recommendation Real Estate > Emerging Real Estate Source: Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Second Floor , Olaya Center , Olaya Main St.

P.O. Box 286546 Riyadh 11323 Saudi Arabia

Tel: +966 1 299 8000

Fax: +966 1 419 6498

Website: www.derayah.com

Email: [email protected]


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