+ All Categories
Home > Documents > First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions &...

First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions &...

Date post: 30-Mar-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 1 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
27
Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 Royal Dutch Shell plc May 2, 2019 First quarter 2019 results Delivering a world-class investment case #makethefuture
Transcript
Page 1: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

Royal Dutch Shell plcMay 2, 2019

First quarter 2019 resultsDelivering a world-class investment case

#makethefuture

Page 2: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

Jessica UhlChief Financial OfficerRoyal Dutch Shell

Page 3: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3

Definitions & cautionary note

Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash and cash equivalents, adjusted for fair value of derivative financial instruments used to hedge foreign exchange and interest rate risks relating to debt, and associated collateral balances) as a percentage of total capital (net debt plus total equity). Free Cash Flow is defined as the sum of “Cash flow from operating activities” and “Cash flow from investing activities”. Cash flow from operating activities excluding working capital movements is defined as “Cash flow from operating activities” less the sum of the following items in the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows: (i) (increase)/decrease in inventories, (ii) (increase)/decrease in current receivables, and (iii) increase/(decrease) in current payables. Organic free cash flow is defined as free cash flow excluding inorganic capital investment (acquisitions; Q1 2019 4Q rolling amounting to $0.4 billion) and divestment proceeds (Q1 2019 4Q rolling amounting to $9.6 billion). ROACE on a CCS basis excluding identified items is defined as the sum of CCS earnings excluding identified items for the current and previous three quarters, adjusted for after-tax interest expense, expressed as a percentage of the average capital employed for the same period. The after-tax interest expense is calculated using the effective tax rate for the same period. Capital employed consists of total equity, current debt and non-current debt. Earnings on a current cost of supplies basis (CCS earnings) is the income for the period, adjusted for the after-tax effect of oil-price changes on inventory. Basic CCS earnings per share is calculated by dividing CCS earnings attributable to shareholders by the average number of shares outstanding over the year. Capital investment comprises Capital expenditure, Investments in joint ventures and associates and Investments in equity securities, exploration expense excluding well write-offs, leases recognised in the period and other adjustments. Cash capital expenditure is introduced with effect from January 1, 2019, comprising the following lines from the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows: Capital expenditure, Investments in joint ventures and associates and Investments in equity securities. Reconciliations of the above non-GAAP measures are included in the Royal Dutch Shell plc Unaudited Condensed Interim Financial Report for three-month period ended March 31, 2019. Also, in this presentation we may refer to “Shell’s Net Carbon Footprint”, which includes Shell’s carbon emissions from the production of our energy products, our suppliers’ carbon emissions in supplying energy for that production and our customers’ carbon emissions associated with their use of the energy products we sell. Shell only controls its own emissions but, to support society in achieving the Paris Agreement goals, we aim to help and influence such suppliers and consumers to likewise lower their emissions. The use of the terminology “Shell’s net carbon footprint” is for convenience only and not intended to suggest these emissions are those of Shell or its subsidiaries.

The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to entities over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations”, respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest.

This presentation contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as “aim”, “ambition’, ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2018 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this presentation and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, May 2, 2019. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this presentation that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.

Page 4: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 4

Summary

Divestments: headline as per announcement.

Key messages

◼ Q1 2019

Strong results

Cash flow from operations excl. working capital movements of $12.1 billion

CCS earnings of $5.3 billion

Confidence in delivery of 2020 commitments

◼ Portfolio reshaping

Continued growth in Deep water, Conventional Oil & Gas, Retail

Further $2 billion divestments announced or completed in 2019

◼ Financial framework

Cash priorities, capital discipline unchanged

Next $2.75 billion tranche of share buybacks announced

Thrive in the energy transition

World-class investment case

Strong license

to operate

Page 5: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

◼ Of which $3.4 billion organic free cash flow

Disciplined cashallocation

Cashgeneration

5

Q1 2019

Financial highlights: summary

Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items. ROACE according to new definition (updated as of Q1 2019).

Share buybacks: repurchases completed in Q1 2019, tranches announced do not align with quarters. Share buybacks subject to further progress with debt reduction and oil price conditions.

Q1 2019 average Brent

price: $63/bbl

Gearing

Share buybacks

Capital investment

◼ Strong cash generation across all businesses

◼ Negative impact of working capital movements ($3.5) billion

Cash flow from operations excluding working capital

Free cash flow

EarningsReturns

◼ IFRS 16 lease recognition resulted in gearing increase by 4.6%

◼ Further negative impact from working capital movements

◼ 2019 capital investment of $25-30 billion (pre-IFRS 16)

◼ Next tranche of up to $2.75 billion announced

◼ Intention to purchase $25 billion by end of 2020

Cash capital expenditure

$12.1 billion

$4.0 billion

$5.3 billion

26.5%

$2.3 billion

$6.7 billion

$5.6 billion ◼ Compared to capital investment excludes ~$1 billion leases capitalised in Q1 2019 and $0.2 billion exploration expense

8.4%ROACE ◼ ROACE of 8.6% pre-IFRS 16 change

◼ Higher contributions from LNG optimisation and Downstream

◼ Strong Upstream contribution, mainly from US Gulf of Mexico

Page 6: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 6

Competitive performance

Competitive financial data as per company reports. CFFO excl. working capital corrected for interest received (in CFFI) and interest paid (CFFF) for RDS. ROACE according to new definition (updated as of Q1 2019). ROACE: European companies: CCS basis

excluding identified items (or equivalent), US companies: reported earnings excluding special non-operating items, adjusted for after-tax interest expense; Capital employed on gross debt basis, including lease liabilities.

$ billion

◼ Sector-leading cash generation

CFFO excl. working capital – 4 quarters rolling

%

Clean CCS ROACE – 4 quarters rolling

◼ Improving ROACE on clean CCS basis

Shell Peer group

0

10

20

30

40

50

16Q1 16Q3 17Q1 17Q3 18Q1 18Q3 19Q1

Thou

sand

s

0

2

4

6

8

10

16Q1 16Q3 17Q1 17Q3 18Q1 18Q3 19Q1

Page 7: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

No harmGood products

Trusted company

7

Strong societal licence to operate

Shell has a long

history of caring

Page 8: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

◼ Retail growth – in last 2 quarters, 250 sites added in growth markets

◼ V-Power reach – 900 sites in China now offering V-Power

◼ Retail offers – new customer offers including nature-based solutions carbon offsets

◼ SASREF refinery – sale of Shell’s full equity interest (50%) to Saudi Aramco

8

Q3 2018

Other portfolio developments

◼ P-67 FPSO – first production from Lula North in the Brazilian Santos Basin

◼ Basrah Gas Company – FID on growth programme; to increase capacity by 40%

◼ Blacktip – discovery in Deep water Gulf of Mexico with more than 400 feet of net oil pay

◼ Caesar-Tonga – sale of interest in Deep water Gulf of Mexico asset for $965 million

◼ Prelude – first condensate cargo loaded on 23 March 2019

◼ Greater Sunrise – completed sale of interest in Timor-Leste for $300 million consideration

◼ sonnen – 100% acquisition, a leader in smart energy storage systems and innovative

energy services for households

◼ Limejump – 100% acquisition, a UK-based energy technology company providing

optimised routes to market for customers with electricity generating or consuming assets

◼ Greenlots – 100% acquisition, a US-based leader in electric vehicle (EV) charging and

energy management software and solutions

Portfoliohighlights

Upstream and Integrated Gas

Downstream

New Energies

Page 9: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

SASREF refinery, Saudi Arabia

Portfolio rationalisation – SASREF refinery

9

Portfolio highlights

High-grading our refinery portfolio

◼ Shell to sell its full 50% interest in the SASREF refining

joint venture to Saudi Aramco

◼ SASREF represents a long and successful collaboration

between Shell and Saudi Aramco

◼ Divestment is part of Shell’s drive to focus its refining

portfolio on sites closely integrated with trading hubs

and chemicals facilities

◼ Installation of two crude oil tanks at Bukom refinery

◼ Storage capacity increased by around 1.3 million

barrels of crude oil, offering flexible options leading

up to IMO2020

◼ Strengthens Bukom’s flexibility and enables further

supply and distribution optimisation, secures the best-

value crude for the refinery

Portfolio optimisation – Bukom refinery

Pulau Bukom refinery, Singapore

Page 10: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

$ billion Q1 2018 Q1 2019of which

IFRS 16 impact

Integrated Gas 2.4 2.6 +0.06

Upstream 1.6 1.7 +0.04

Downstream (CCS) 1.8 1.8 +0.04

Corporate & non-controlling interest

(0.4) (0.8) -0.18

CCS earnings 5.4 5.3 -0.04

CCS earnings, $ per share

0.65 0.65 -0.01

ROACE (%) 7.1 8.4 -0.2

Q1 2019

Financial highlights: earnings

Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items. Graph: Individual categories presented excluding IFRS 16 impact; IFRS 16 impact on individual categories: Prices and Margins +$0.2bln, Cost +$0.4bln, DD&A -$0.5bln, Interest -$0.2bln.

$ billion

Earnings Q1 2018 to Q1 2019

5.4 5.3

~0 0.2 0.2

0.4

~(0)(0.2)

(0.7)

0

2

4

6

8

10

Page 11: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

$ billion Q1 2018 Q1 2019of which

IFRS 16 impact

Integrated Gas 2.6 4.2 +0.28

Upstream 3.6 5.3 +0.19

Downstream 3.1 (0.6) +0.45

Corporate 0.2 (0.3) +0.04

Cash flow from operations 9.5 8.6 +0.95

Cash flow from operationsexcl. working capital

10.4 12.1 +0.81

Cash flow from investing activities (4.3) (4.6) +0.12

Free cash flow 5.2 4.0 +1.07

Dividend (4.0) (3.9) -

Interest paid (0.9) (1.1) -0.28

Share buybacks - (2.3) -

11

Q1 2019

Financial highlights: cash flow

Dividend distributed to RDS shareholders.

$ billion

CFFO excl. working capital Q1 2018 to Q1 2019

10.412.1

0.9 0.3 0.3

~(0)

0.8

(0.5)

0

4

8

12

16

Page 12: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

◼ $1.1 billion, due to higher CFFO and lower CFFI

Disciplined cashallocation

Cashgeneration

12

Q1 2019

Financial highlights: IFRS 16

Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items. ROACE according to new definition (updated as of Q1 2019).

Share buybacks: repurchases completed in Q1 2019, tranches announced do not align with quarters. Share buybacks subject to further progress with debt reduction and oil price conditions.

Q1 2019 average Brent

price: $63/bbl

◼ Operating lease costs reported as depreciation and interest; net negative impact of $43 million - not material

Gearing

Share buybacks

Capital investment

$11.3 billion◼ $0.8 billion, as lease payments now reported in

CFFF

◼ Increase in payables of $0.1 billion (affecting working capital)

$2.9 billion

Cash flow from operations excluding working capital

Free cash flow

Earnings $5.3 billionReturns

21.9% ◼ 4.6%, as $16.2 billion lease liabilities recorded on balance sheet

$2.3 billion

$6.0 billion ◼ $0.7 billion to financial leases capitalized in the quarter

Cash capital expenditure

$12.1 billion

$4.0 billion

$5.3 billion

26.5%

$2.3 billion

$6.7 billion

$5.6 billion

Pre-IFRS 16Post-IFRS 16

◼ New performance measure; adds capital spend transparency and allows visibility for underlying capital costs excluding leases

8.4% 8.6%ROACE ◼ 0.2% on higher closing capital employed, partly offset by higher after-tax interest

Page 13: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 13

Summary

Divestments: headline as per announcement.

Key messages

◼ Q1 2019

Strong results

Cash flow from operations excl. working capital movements of $12.1 billion

CCS earnings of $5.3 billion

Confidence in delivery of 2020 commitments

◼ Portfolio reshaping

Continued growth in Deep water, Conventional Oil & Gas, Retail

Further $2 billion divestments announced or completed in 2019

◼ Financial framework

Cash priorities, capital discipline unchanged

Next $2.75 billion tranche of share buybacks announced

Thrive in the energy transition

World-class investment case

Strong license

to operate

Page 14: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 14

Questions & Answers

Jessica UhlChief Financial Officer

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

Reminder of key dates:

◼ Annual General Meeting May 21, 2019

◼ Management Day 2019 June 4, 2019 London

June 5, 2019 New York

◼ Q2 2019 Results August 1, 2019

Page 15: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

Page 16: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

Outlook

Q2 2019outlook

As of 2019, Salym (Russia) is reported within the Upstream segment. 2018 production: 62 kboe/d Shell share (97% liquids); 2018 net income: $0.1 billion.

Q2 2018 – Q2 2019 OUTLOOK: Year-ago baseline reflects Shell’s earnings seasonality

◼ Integrated Gas◼ Production volumes: 10-50 thousand boe/d lower, mainly due to divestments, transfer of Salym into the Upstream

segment, partly offset by new field ramp-ups and lower maintenance activities

◼ LNG liquefaction volumes: expected to be at a similar level

◼ Upstream◼ Production volumes: 150-200 thousand boe/d higher, mainly due to new field ramp-ups, lower maintenance activities

and transfer of Salym, partly offset by divestments and field decline

◼ Downstream◼ Refinery availability expected to increase, as a result of lower maintenance activity

◼ Chemicals availability expected to decrease, as a result of higher maintenance activity

◼ Oil products sales volumes: 40-70 thousand boe/d lower, mainly as a result of the divestment in Argentina

2019 OUTLOOK:

◼ Corporate segment: net charge of $650-700 million in Q2, and $2.6-2.8 billion for the full year 2019 on a post-IFRS 16 basis, excluding the impact of currency exchange rate effects

16

Page 17: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 17

Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items. ROACE according to new definition (updated as of Q1 2019). Pricing assumption 2020: $60 per barrel real terms 2016, mid-cycle Downstream.

$ billion

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 19Q14QR

Earnings & ROACE

$ billion

-20

0

20

40

60

2015 2016 2017 2018 19Q14QR

Cash flow

$ billion

0

10

20

30

0

25

50

75

100

2015 2016 2017 2018 19Q1

Gearing

◼ 4Q rolling earnings of $21 billion,

negligible impact of IFRS 16

◼ ROACE decreased by 0.3% to 8.4%

compared to Q4 2018, in large part

driven by increased closing capital

employed balance due to IFRS 16

◼ $38 billion free cash flow 4Q rolling

◼ $29 billion organic free cash flow

◼ $1.1 billion help from IFRS 16

◼ On track to deliver 2019-2021

outlook

◼ Gearing increased to 26.5%, mostly

as effect of IFRS 16

◼ Excluding IFRS 16 net debt increased

by $4.7 billion, with gearing up from

20.3% in Q4 2018 to 21.9% in Q1

2019

Q1 2019 (4Q rolling)

average Brent price:

$70/bbl

% %

Upstream

ROACE (RHS)

DownstreamIntegrated Gas Corporate + NCI

CFFOCFFI

FCF

Net debt (at period end)

Gearing (RHS)

Q1 2019

Financial highlights: improving year on year

IFRS 16 impact

Gearing pre-IFRS 16 (RHS)FCF pre-IFRS 16ROACE pre-IFRS 16 (RHS)

Page 18: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

27

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Q1

2019

4QR

Pric

eno

rmal

isat

ion

Q1

2019

4QR,

nor

mal

ised

CFF

O fr

omke

y pr

ojec

ts

2019

-202

1ou

tlook

18

Outlook

Organic free cash flow

2019-2021 outlook at $60 per barrel real terms 2016, mid-cycle Downstream. Organic free cash flow normalised to stable $60 per barrel real terms 2016 oil price environment in 2020, assuming no working capital or margining movements. Impact of IFRS 16

removed as 2019-2021 outlook provided pre-IFRS 16 implementation. Price effect between current Brent price and 2019-2021 outlook is indicative, calculated using rule-of-thumb.

$ billion

Organic free cash flow bridge to 2019-2021 outlook

◼ On track to deliver 2019-2021 outlook of

$25-30 billion organic free cash flow

◼ Normalised organic free cash flow excludes

effects of IFRS 16 and working capital

movements

◼ New projects provide free cash flow growth

◼ Compared to Q4 2018, normalised organic

free cash flow improved by ~$1 billion

25-30>5

(3)

~29

~24

Organic free cash flow

Working capital movement and IFRS 16 impact

Page 19: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

Q1 2019

Prices & margins $/barrel

Shell oil & gas realisations

$/barrel

Industry refining margins

$/tonne

Industry chemicals margins

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

20

40

60

80

18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q10

3

6

9

12

15

18

18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q10

200

400

600

800

1000

18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1

US ethaneWestern Europe naphthaNE/SE Asia naphtha

US West CoastUS Gulf Coast cokingRotterdam complexSingapore

OilGas (RHS)

19

$/mscf

Page 20: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

2.4 2.6

0.3

~0 0.2 0.1

(0.3) (0.1)(0.1)

0

1

2

3

20

Q1 2019

Integrated Gas results

$ billion

Earnings Q1 2018 to Q1 2019

Environment Choice

Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items. Individual categories presented excluding IFRS 16 impact; IFRS 16 impact on individual categories: Prices & margins +$0.16bln, Cost +$0.04bln, DD&A -$0.14bln.

Page 21: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

1.61.7

0.50.2

~0

(0.1)

(0.3) ~(0) (0.1) ~(0)

0

1

2

3

21

Q1 2019

Upstream results

$ billion

Earnings Q1 2018 to Q1 2019

Environment Choice

Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items. Individual categories presented excluding IFRS 16 impact; IFRS 16 impact on individual categories: Cost +$0.14bln, DD&A -$0.10bln.

Page 22: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019

1.8 1.8

0.2

0.2 ~0~(0)

(0.3)~(0)

0

1

2

3

22

Q1 2019

Downstream results

Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items. Individual categories presented excluding IFRS 16 impact; IFRS 16 impact on individual categories: Refining & Trading margins +$0.08bln, Cost +$0.22bln, DD&A -$0.26bln.

$ billion

Earnings Q1 2018 to Q1 2019

$ billion

Earnings mix

0

5

10

2016 2017 2018 Q1 20194Q rolling

MarketingRefining & TradingChemicals

Page 23: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 23

IFRS 16

Impact on financial metrics

Outlook for 2019

Key metrics change, no

business or value impact

Gearing

Operating expenses

Segment earnings

Free cash flow

~4%-5%increase

◼ Full impact recognised in Q1 2019, in

line with guidance provided

~$2-3 billiondecrease

◼ Q1 2019 impact lower than outlook

◼ Full year impact expected at the lower end

of the range provided

~$1 billionimpact

~$4 billionincrease

◼ CFFO increase of $0.9 billion

◼ CFFI increase of $0.1 billion

◼ Fully offset by CFFF decrease

Outlook for 2019 as provided during the IFRS 16 update call on March 28, 2019.

4.6% increase

$0.4 billiondecrease

$0.2 billionimpact

$1.1 billionincrease

Q1 2019 impact

◼ Business segments: $140 million

◼ Corporate: $(183) million

◼ Net impact: $(43) million

Capital investment

Clean CCS ROACE

~$1-2 billion increase

~0.5%decrease

◼ Partial impact recognized in Q1 2019

(higher closing capital employed, partly

offset by one quarter of increased interest

expense after tax)

$0.7 billionincrease

0.2%decrease

◼ Q1 2019 impact due to finance leases

capitalised in the quarter

◼ Full year outlook unchanged

Page 24: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 24

Projects under construction

[A] Direct and indirect share. [B] The Brazil accumulations are subject to unitisation agreements; production shown is FPSO oil capacity as per operator. [C] Fox Creek and Permian production represents Shell entitlement share of production and is the peak

production expected between 2017 and 2019. [D] Sierras Blancas and Cruz de Lorena at 90% Shell share, Coiron Amargo SO at 80% Shell share.

2019 Shell share:

▪ >300 kboe/d

2020+ Shell share:

▪ >350 kboe/d

▪ 5.6 mtpa LNG

▪ 1.5 mtpa ethylene

Start up Project Country

Shell share [A]

%

Peak Production 100%

kboe/d

LNG capacity 100% mtpa Products Theme

Shell operated

2019 Appomattox United States 79 175 Deep water P

Berbigão and Sururu SW (P-68) [B] Brazil 25 150 Deep water

Forcados Yokri Integrated Project (FYIP) Nigeria 30 40 Conventional oil and gas P

Gumusut-Kakap Ph2 Malaysia 29 50 Deep water P

Permian + Fox Creek [C] United States & Canada various ~250 Shales P

Rabab Harweel Integrated Project Oman 34 35 Conventional oil and gas

Southern Swamp AG Nigeria 30 40 Conventional oil and gas P

Tempa Rossa Italy 25 50 Conventional oil and gas

WDDM 9B Egypt 50 52 Conventional oil and gas

2020+ Arran United Kingdom 45 30 Conventional oil and gas

Assa North Nigeria 30 60 Conventional oil and gas P

Atapu 1 (P-70) [B] Brazil 25 150 Deep water

TBD (P71) [B] Brazil 25 150 Deep water

Bakong / Gorek / Larak (SK408) Malaysia 30 75 Conventional oil and gas P

EA Further Development Nigeria 30 35 Conventional oil and gas

Gorgon backfill PhB1 Australia 25 maintain capacity Integrated Gas

KBB Phase 2 Malaysia 30 60 Conventional oil and gas

LNG Canada T1-2 Canada 40 14 Integrated Gas

Mero 1 [B] Brazil 20 180 Deep water

Pegaga Malaysia 20 95 Conventional oil and gas

Penguins Redevelopment United Kingdom 50 45 Conventional oil and gas P

Pennsylvania cracker United States 100 1.5 mtpa C2 Chemicals P

Troll Ph3 Norway 8 255 Conventional oil and gas

Tyra Future Denmark 37 80 Conventional oil and gas

Vaca Muerta basin [D] Argentina ~90 ~70 Shales P

Vito United States 63 100 Deep water P

Page 25: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 25

Pre-FID options

[A] Direct and indirect share.

Shell share potential:

▪ ~1,000 kboe/d

▪ >24 mtpa LNG

Phase Project Country

Shell share [A]

%

Peak Production 100%

kboe/d

LNG capacity100% mtpa Products Theme

Shell operated

Define Bonga South West Nigeria 43 175 Deep water P

Gbaran Ph3 Nigeria 30 50 Conventional oil and gas P

Lake Charles LNG United States 50 16.8 Integrated Gas P

NLNG T7 Nigeria 26 7.4 Integrated Gas

Pierce Depressurisation United Kingdom 93 20 Conventional oil and gas P

Powernap United States 100 35 Deep water P

Prelude backfill Australia 82 maintain capacity Integrated Gas P

Salym Southern Hub Russia 50 65 Conventional oil and gas

Uzu Development Nigeria 30 45 Conventional oil and gas P

Val d’Agri Future Development Italy 39 65 Conventional oil and gas

Assess/Select

Abadi Indonesia 35 244 9.5 Integrated Gas

Afungi Mozambique 70 1.6 mtpa GTL Integrated Gas P

Bonga Main Life Extension & Upgrade Nigeria 55 80 Deep water P

Bonga North Tranche 1 Nigeria 55 119 Deep water P

Browse Australia 27 TBD Integrated Gas

Bukom upgrade Singapore 100 Gasoline Oil Products P

Cambo United Kingdom 30 40 Conventional oil and gas

Clair South United Kingdom 28 60 Conventional oil and gas

Colibri Trinidad & Tobago 87 35 Integrated Gas P

Dover United States 100 TBD Deep water P

Gato do Mato Brazil 80 99 Deep water P

Gorgon backfill PhB2 Australia 25 maintain capacity Integrated Gas

Gorgon backfill PhB3/PhC1/PhC2 Australia 25 maintain capacity Integrated Gas

(continues) Oman Integrated GTL Oman TBD TBD TBD Integrated Gas P

Page 26: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 26

Pre-FID options

[A] Direct and indirect share. [B] The Brazil accumulations are subject to unitisation agreements; production shown is FPSO oil capacity as per operator.

Shell share potential:

▪ ~1,000 kboe/d

▪ >24 mtpa LNG

Phase Project Country

Shell share [A]

%

Peak Production 100%

kboe/d

LNG capacity100% mtpa Products Theme

Shell operated

Assess/Select (continued)

HA Development Nigeria 30 60 Conventional oil and gas P

HI Development Nigeria 40 75 Conventional oil and gas P

Jackdaw United Kingdom 74 40 Conventional oil and gas P

Jerun Malaysia 30 95 Conventional oil and gas

Kalamkas Kazakhstan 17 55 Conventional oil and gas

Kashagan CFP Kazakhstan 17 65 Conventional oil and gas

KGK Expansion Ph1 Kazakhstan 29 40 Conventional oil and gas

LNG Canada T3-4 Canada 40 14 Integrated Gas

Marjoram/Rosmari Malaysia 75 100 Conventional oil and gas P

Mero 2[B] Brazil 20 180 Deep water

Mero 3[B] Brazil 20 180 Deep water

Mero 4[B] Brazil 20 180 Deep water

Moerdijk NWE efficiency project The Netherlands 100 Ethylene Chemicals P

Nebras Iraq TBD TBD Chemicals TBD

Norco upgrade United States 100 Gasoline Oil Products P

Okpokunou Cluster Development Nigeria 24 85 Conventional oil and gas P

Ormen Lange Phase 3 Norway 18 80 Conventional oil and gas P

Pearls Khazar Kazakhstan 55 40 Conventional oil and gas

QGC backfill (Arrow) Australia 50 maintain capacity Integrated Gas

Sakhalin T3 Russia 28 5.4 Integrated Gas

Tanzania Tanzania 30 TBD 12 Integrated Gas P

Timi Malaysia 75 40 Conventional oil and gas

Whale United States 60 TBD Deep water P

Page 27: First quarter 2019 results - Royal Dutch Shell · Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019 3 Definitions & cautionary note Gearing is defined as net debt (current and noncurrent debt less cash

Royal Dutch Shell May 2, 2019


Recommended