Fiscal Crises
Paulo Medas Fiscal Affairs Department
International Monetary Fund
Conference “Public debt, fiscal policy and EMU deepening”
European Central Bank, Frankfurt, November 20-21
This presentation is based on an IMF working paper WP/17/86 authored by Kerstin Gerling, Paulo Medas, Tigran Poghosyan, Juan Farah-Yacoub, and Yizhi Xu. The views are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Motivation
1
Ten of the Worst Crises Since 2005 (decline in the real GDPpc growth rate, percentage points)
Motivation
Sound fiscal policy seen as key ingredient for stability and
sustainable growth …
… but empirical identification of fiscal crises is scarce
Previous literature Focuses mainly on public debt defaults (legal definition) … … mostly external … … mostly in advanced and emerging economies Baldacci et al. (2011) is an exception (economic criteria)
• Also adopted by the EC recently (Sumner & Berti 2017)
Our contribution Wider country and time coverage (all 188 IMF members, 1970-2015) Improved identification methodology Event study analysis – dynamics of macroeconomic variables around fiscal crises
2
Our database 436 fiscal crises in total, of which:
25 in Advanced Markets (AM)
154 in Emerging Markets (EM)
171 in Low-Income and Developing Countries (LIDC)
86 in Small Developing States (SDS)
Existing databases Reinhart & Rogoff (2011): 75 external
and 26 domestic defaults
Baldacci et al. (2011): 176 fiscal crises
Laeven & Valencia (2012): 67 debt defaults
Bruns & Poghosyan (2016): 201 fiscal crises
Sumner & Berti (2017): 88 fiscal crises
Outline
I. New Database on Fiscal Crises II. Empirical Analysis III. Concluding remarks
3
I. New Database on Fiscal Crises
4
Red Flags: How To Identify Fiscal Crises?
5
• Any year in which actions of the sovereign reduce the PV of public debt • Exclude technical defaults • Examples: Bulgaria 1990; Macedonia 2010
1. Credit event
• Any year under a large IMF financial arrangement … • … with fiscal adjustment as a program objective • Examples: Hungary 2008; Ireland 2010
2. Official financing
• Any year with a very high inflation • Any year with domestic arrears accumulation (new!) • Examples: Belarus 1999; Russia 2007
3. Implicit default
• Any year with a very high price of market access • Any year with loss of market access (new!) • Examples: Ukraine 2008; Romania 2009
4. Market confidence
6 Note: AM = advanced markets, EM = emerging markets, LIDC = low-income and developing countries, SDS = small developing states.
Criterion Main Sources
AMs EMs LIDCs SDSs
(1) Credit event Any operation that makes creditors incur material economic losses on the sovereign debt they hold (e.g. default, restructuring, or rescheduling) (i) of substantial size (in percent of GDP p.a.)(ii) if (i) holds and the defaulted nominal amount grows by a substantial amount (in percent p.a)
(2) Exceptionally large official financing
High-access IMF financial arrangement with fiscal adjustment objective in place (in percent of quota)
▪ IMF
(3) (a) High inflation rate (in percent of growth of annual average CPI p.a.)
≥ 35 ≥ 35 ▪ IMF
(b) Steep increase in domestic arrears (in first difference of the ratio of 'other account payables (OAP)' to GDP in percentage points)
▪ OECD and Eurostat
(4) (a) Loss of market access ▪ Guscina, Sheheryar and Papaioannou (2016) and Gelos, Sahay, and Sandleris (2004)
h h b d (b) High price of market access (in basis points, sovereign spreads or CDS spreads)
Thresholds
▪ BoC (2016)
>0.2≥ 10
≥ 100
≥ 100
≥ 1
Loss of market confidence
when market access is lost (after maintaining market
access for a 1/4 of the sample time and 2 consecutive years
before the loss year)
≥ 1,000 bps
Implicit domestic public default
Fiscal Crisis Episodes (1970-2015)
7
Source: Authors’ calculations. AM = advanced markets, EM = emerging markets, LIDC = low-income and developing countries, SDS = small developing states.
Total AM EM LIDC SDSWith start date within sample period 436 25 154 171 86
Average per country 2.3 0.7 2.2 3.4 2.6
With start and end date within sample period 400 23 143 154 80Average number of crises per country 2.1 0.7 2.0 3.1 2.4Average probability of starting a crisis 6.7% 1.6% 6.4% 13.0% 6.7%Average probability of being in a crisis 29.3% 6.0% 29.9% 50.4% 20.6%
Dynamics of Fiscal Crises
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1970 - 1979 1980 - 1989 1990 - 1999 2000 - 2004 2005 - 2009 2010 - 2015
By Criteria
Credit event Exceptional financing Implicit default Market confidence
0
10
20
30
40
50
1970 - 1979 1980 - 1989 1990 - 1999 2000 - 2004 2005 - 2009 2010 - 2015
By Country Groups
Advanced Emerging Low Income Small Developing States
Overlap between Fiscal, Banking, and Currency Crises
9
Fiscal crises 335
Currency crises 122
Banking crises 82
23
14
47
28
Source: Laeven and Valencia (2012), authors’ calculations.
PresenterPresentation Notes
II. Empirical Analysis
10
Event Study Empirical regularities during the 11-year time window around fiscal
crises (Gourinchas & Obstfeld 2012; Catao & Milesi-Ferretti 2014) Does not necessarily imply causality
𝑦𝑦𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 = 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 + � 𝛽𝛽𝑗𝑗
5
𝑗𝑗=−5
𝐹𝐹𝑖𝑖+𝑗𝑗 + 𝜀𝜀𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖
where: y = variable of interest (e.g., real GDP p.c. growth, public debt-to-GDP ratio) F = dummy variables taking the value of 1 in period t+j, where t is the fiscal crisis year β = conditional effect of a crisis over the event window relative to tranquil times
11
What Happens Around Fiscal Crises?
12
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
Public debt (% of GDP)
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
Real expenditure growth (%)
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
Primary balance (% of GDP)
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
Real GDPpc growth (%)
Note: Reported are coefficient estimates with 95% confidence intervals.
Fiscal Crises and Growth: By Country Groups
13
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
AM
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
EM
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
LIDC
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
SDS
Note: Reported are coefficient estimates with 95% confidence intervals. AM = advanced markets, EM = emerging markets, LIDC = low-income and developing countries, SDS = small developing states.
Recessions are common at time of Crisis
14
Source: Authors’ calculations.
0
20
40
60
t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2
Negative growth around fiscal crises (percent of countries with negative GDPpc real growth)
AMEMLIDC
Fiscal Crises and Growth: By Criteria
15
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
1. Credit event
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
2. Official financing
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
3. Implicit default
Note: Reported are coefficient estimates with 95% confidence intervals.
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
4. Market confidence
Event Study – Twin Crises Empirical specification:
𝑦𝑦𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 = 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 + � 𝛽𝛽𝑗𝑗
5
𝑗𝑗=−5
𝐹𝐹𝑖𝑖+𝑗𝑗 + � 𝛾𝛾𝑗𝑗
5
𝑗𝑗=−5
𝐹𝐹𝐵𝐵𝑖𝑖+𝑗𝑗 + � 𝛿𝛿𝑗𝑗
5
𝑗𝑗=−5
𝐹𝐹𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖+𝑗𝑗 + 𝜀𝜀𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖
where: y = macro variable of interest (e.g., growth, public debt ratio) F = fiscal crisis dummy FB = twin fiscal-banking crisis dummy FC = twin fiscal-currency crisis dummy β = effect of a fiscal crisis γ = additional effect of a twin fiscal-banking crisis δ = additional effect of a twin fiscal-currency crisis
16
Twin Fiscal-Currency Crises
17
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
Public debt (% of GDP)
Note: Reported are coefficient estimates with 95% confidence intervals.
Real GDP p.c. growth (%)
III. Concluding Remarks
18
Conclusions A new IMF database on fiscal crises Updated annually (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2017/04/03/Fiscal-Crises-44795) Large sample (including LIDCs, over 4½ decades) … … but some challenges remain (variability of quality/available data across criteria,
time, and country groups)
Helps understanding implications of fiscal crises Crises are disruptive: economic recession, indebtedness rises … … but effects can vary across country groups and crisis criteria Procyclical fiscal policy (expenditures) play a role Twin crises can be even more disruptive
Can be used to conduct further research
19
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2017/04/03/Fiscal-Crises-44795
Predicting Fiscal Crises - Preliminary Signaling and Logit approaches Advanced and Emerging Economies Macro imbalances: external (current account), financial (credit growth), and
economic activity (large output gap) Strong expenditure growth increases probability of crisis - evidence of destabilizing
role of procyclical fiscal policy Able to predict a large share of crises (out of sample)
Low Income Countries Very different factors; able to predict large share of crises External factors very relevant: world growth; food prices; dependence on external
aid Some role for domestic economic activity and traditional fiscal indicators
20
Thank you!
21
Background Slides
22
Types of Fiscal Crises per Country Groups
23
AM EM LIDC SDSCredit event 0 85 141 71Official financing 11 40 29 6Implicit default 13 18 9 7Market confidence 7 25 4 3Source: Authors’ calculations.
LIDCs top ten (PPT)
Decline in Real GDP p.c. growth rate (5 years before versus 5 years since start of crisis)
Sudan2002Sudan, 200221.69754-21.69754
Moldova1991Moldova, 199121.19661-21.19661
C.A.R.2013C.A.R., 201312.8511-12.8511
Eritrea2000Eritrea, 200010.9796-10.9796
Tajikistan1991Tajikistan, 199110.77192-10.77192
Nicaragua1976Nicaragua, 19769.830752-9.830752
Uzbekistan1991Uzbekistan, 19918.224093-8.224093
Zimbabwe2000Zimbabwe, 20008.147759-8.147759
Chad2005Chad, 20058.025736-8.025736
Niger1983Niger, 19837.737927-7.737927
Myanmar1985Myanmar, 19857.592935-7.592935
Congo, DR1975Congo, DR, 19757.316471-7.316471
Papua New Guinea1997Papua New Guinea, 19977.278628-7.278628
Liberia1973Liberia, 19737.086921-7.086921
Myanmar2007Myanmar, 20076.914485-6.914485
Chad2008Chad, 20086.593786-6.593786
Sierra Leone1975Sierra Leone, 19755.979975-5.979975
Malawi1979Malawi, 19795.934911-5.934911
Bangladesh2012Bangladesh, 20125.722627-5.722627
Sierra2013Sierra, 20135.55219-5.55219
Decline in Real GDP p.c. growth rate (3 years before versus 3 years since start of crisis)
Moldova1991Moldova, 199123.52341-23.52341
C.A.R.2013C.A.R., 201313.46517-13.46517
Chad2005Chad, 200512.25709-12.25709
Sudan2002Sudan, 200211.199-11.199
Ghana1981Ghana, 19819.437407-9.437407
Eritrea2000Eritrea, 20009.370483-9.370483
Uzbekistan1991Uzbekistan, 19919.080335-9.080335
Mozambique1999Mozambique, 19998.75704-8.75704
Liberia1973Liberia, 19738.694738-8.694738
Malawi1979Malawi, 19797.786917-7.786917
Niger1983Niger, 19837.61014-7.61014
Congo1982Congo, 19827.545967-7.545967
Sierra Leone2013Sierra Leone, 20137.377372-7.377372
Congo, DR1975Congo, DR, 19756.956111-6.956111
Madagascar1980Madagascar, 19806.803192-6.803192
Guinea-Bissau1998Guinea-Bissau, 19986.770351-6.770351
Myanmar2007Myanmar, 20076.520125-6.520125
Afghanistan2014Afghanistan, 20146.485674-6.485674
Myanmar1985Myanmar, 19856.383818-6.383818
Zimbabwe1983Zimbabwe, 19836.37795-6.37795
Sudan, 2002Moldova, 1991C.A.R., 2013Eritrea, 2000Tajikistan, 1991Nicaragua, 1976Uzbekistan, 1991Zimbabwe, 2000Chad, 2005Niger, 198321.6975421.1966112.85110000000000110.979610.771929.83075200000000048.22409299999999998.14775900000000068.02573600000000027.737927
Moldova, 1991C.A.R., 2013Chad, 2005Sudan, 2002Ghana, 1981Eritrea, 2000Uzbekistan, 1991Mozambique, 1999Liberia, 1973Malawi, 197923.52340999999999813.46517000000000112.2570911.1999.43740700000000039.37048300000000019.08033499999999988.75703999999999998.69473799999999927.7869169999999999
Text-->
F_1.1 (alt_spreads)
TrimmedDecline in Real GDP p.c. growth rate
Latvia2008Latvia, 200817.94582-17.94582
Angola2009Angola, 200915.34178-15.34178
Armenia2009Armenia, 200913.87583-13.87583
C.A.R.2013C.A.R., 201313.46517-13.46517
Ukraine2008Ukraine, 200810.77059-10.77059
Romania2009Romania, 200910.6629-10.6629
Georgia2008Georgia, 20088.918159-8.918159
Iceland2008Iceland, 20087.848809-7.848809
Sierra Leone2013Sierra Leone, 20137.377372-7.377372
Greece2010Greece, 20106.557755-6.557755
Full list, stata output
Latvia2008-17.9458220082011
Angola2009-15.3417820092012
Antigua & Barbuda2009-13.9790620092014
Armenia2009-13.8758320092013
C.A.R.2013-13.4651720132013
Ukraine2008-10.7705920082015
Romania2009-10.662920092011
Georgia2008-8.91815920082013
Iceland2008-7.84880920082011
Sierra Leone2013-7.37737220132015
Greece2010-6.55775520102015
Myanmar2007-6.52012520072010
Afghanistan2014-6.48567420142014
Lebanon2011-6.32811720112012
Belarus2013-5.72783720132013
Latvia, 2008Angola, 2009Armenia, 2009C.A.R., 2013Ukraine, 2008Romania, 2009Georgia, 2008Iceland, 2008Sierra Leone, 2013Greece, 201017.94582000000000115.3417813.87583000000000113.46517000000000110.7705910.66298.91815899999999937.84880900000000017.37737200000000036.5577550000000002
F_1.1
Decline in Real GDP p.c. growth rate
Latvia2008Latvia, 200817.94582-17.94582
Angola2009Angola, 200915.34178-15.34178
Armenia2009Armenia, 200913.87583-13.87583
C.A.R.2013C.A.R., 201313.46517-13.46517
Ukraine2008Ukraine, 200810.77059-10.77059
Romania2009Romania, 200910.6629-10.6629
Venezuela2008Venezuela, 20089.284505-9.284505
Georgia2008Georgia, 20088.918159-8.918159
Iceland2008Iceland, 20087.848809-7.848809
Greece2010Greece, 20106.557755-6.557755
Myanmar2007Myanmar, 20076.520125-6.520125
Afghanistan2014Afghanistan, 20146.485674-6.485674
Antigua & Barbuda2009Antigua & Barbuda, 200913.97906-13.97906
Sierra Leone2013Sierra Leone, 20137.377372-7.377372
Lithuania2009Lithuania, 20098.946554-8.946554
Latvia, 2008Angola, 2009Armenia, 2009C.A.R., 2013Ukraine, 2008Romania, 2009Venezuela, 2008Georgia, 2008Iceland, 2008Greece, 201017.94582000000000115.3417813.87583000000000113.46517000000000110.7705910.66299.28450499999999938.91815899999999937.84880900000000016.5577550000000002
T_2.1
CriterionThresholdsSourcesCriterionThresholdsSources
AMsEMsLIDCsSDSsAMsEMsLIDCsSDSs
(1)Credit eventAny operation that makes creditors incur material economic losses on the sovereign debt they hold (e.g. default, restructuring, or rescheduling) ▪ BoC (2016)▪ For gaps: authors' research based on rating agency reports (esp. Moody's and S&P), WB IDS and WDI data, and Cruces and Trebesch (2013)(1)Credit eventAny operation that makes creditors incur material economic losses on the sovereign debt they hold (i.e.–most obviously, but not confined to–default, restructuring, rescheduling, or relief) 1/ ▪ BoC (2016)▪ For gaps: authors' research based on rating agency reports (esp. Moody's and S&P), WB IDS and WDI data, and Cruces and Trebesch (2013)
(i) of substantial size (in percent of GDP p.a.)>0.2(i) of substantial size (in pct. of GDP p.a.) 2/>0.2
(ii) if (i) holds and the defaulted nominal amount grows by a substantial amount (in percent p.a) ≥ 10(ii) if (i) holds and the defaulted nominal amount grows by a substantial amount (in pct. p.a) 3/≥ 10
(2)Exceptionally large official financingHigh-access IMF financial arrangement with fiscal adjustment objective in place (in percent of quota)≥ 100 ▪ IMF Strategy, Policy, and Review Department (SPR) as well as Finance Department (FIN)(2)Exceptionally large official financingHigh-access IMF financial arrangement with fiscal adjustment objective in place (in pct. of quota) 4/≥ 100 ▪ IMF Strategy, Policy, and Review Department (SPR) as well as Finance Department (FIN)
(3)Implicit domestic public default(a) High inflation rate (in percent of growth of annual average CPI p.a.)≥ 35≥ 100≥ 35▪ IMF WEO(3)Implicit domestic public default(a) High inflation rate (in pct. of growth of annual average CPI p.a.) 5/≥ 35≥ 100≥ 35▪ IMF WEO
(b) Steep increase in domestic arrears (in first difference of the ratio of 'other account payables (OAP)' to GDP in percentage points) ≥ 1▪ OECD and Eurostat(b) Steep increase in domestic arrears (in first difference of the ratio of 'other account payables (OAP)' to GDP in pct. ppts.) 6/≥ 1▪ OECD and Eurostat
(c) Steep increase in central bank financing (in first difference of the ratio of 'net claims from the central bank on the government' to the overall balance in pct. ppts.) 7/≥ 50 when deficit ≤ 5 pct. of GDP▪ IMF IFS Monetary Survey(c) Steep increase in central bank financing (in first difference of the ratio of 'net claims from the central bank on the government' to the overall balance in pct. ppts.) 7/≥ 50 when deficit ≤ 5 pct. of GDP▪ IMF IFS Monetary Survey
(4)Loss of market confidence(a) Loss of market access when market access is lost (after maintaining market access for a 1/4 of the sample time and 2 consecutive years before the loss year)▪ Guscina, Sheheryar and Papaioannou (2016)▪ For gaps: authors' research based on Gelos, Sahay, and Sandleris (2004) and rating agencies' reports (esp. Moody's and S&P's)(4)Loss of market confidence(a) Loss of market access 8/when market access is lost (after having had market access for two consecutive years)▪ Guscina, Sheheryar and Papaioannou (2016)▪ For gaps: authors' research based on Gelos, Sahay, and Sandleris (2004) and rating agencies' reports (esp. Moody's and S&P's)
▪ For gaps: authors' research based on Gelos, Sahay and Sandleris (2004) and rating agencies' reports (esp. Moody's and S&P's)▪ For gaps: authors' research based on Gelos, Sahay and Sandleris (2004) and rating agencies' reports (esp. Moody's and S&P's)
(b) High price of market access (in basis points, sovereign spreads or CDS spreads)≥ 1,000 bps▪ Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg, IMF IFS(b) High price of market access (in bps. sovereign spreads or CDS spreads) 9/≥ 1,000 bps▪ Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg, IMF IFS
Note: 1/ Following BoC (2016) as laid out in Beers and Chambers 2006, we consider that a default has occurred 'when debt service is not paid on the due date (or within a specified grace period), payments are not made within the time frame specified under a guarantee, or, absent an outright payment default, in any of the following circumstances where creditors incur material economic losses on the sovereign debt they hold: (i) agreements between governments and creditors that reduce interest rates and/or extend maturities on outstanding debt; (ii) government exchange offers to creditors where existing debt is swapped for new debt on less-economic terms; (iii) government purchases of debt at substantial discounts to par; (iv) government redenomination of foreign currency debt into new local currency obligations on less-economic terms; (v) swaps of sovereign debt for equity (usually relating to privatization programs) on less-economic terms; (vi) conversion of central bank notes into new currency of less-than-equivalent face value.' This is also in line with much of the literature on sovereign defaults (Cruces and Trebesch 2011), and the practice of credit-rating agencies. 2/ This threshold aims at excluding technical defaults of minor amounts (e.g. owing to delays caused by administrative procedures and debt management capacity issues). 3/ This approach is to identify intensifications of debt default series, thereby dealing with the practical technicalities of accounting for defaulted amounts, which make identifying duration a common problem (see e.g. Reinhart and Rogoff (2011)). The threshold roughly accounts for the accumulation of late interest and penalty fee on the defaulted amount in the previous year. 4/ The threshold is consistent with IMF access rules and also used by Baldacci et al. (2011). 5/ The threshold is consistent with Fisher et al. (2002) for EMs and LIDCs, and with Baldacci et al. (2011) for AMs and SDSs, roughly confirmed by the 95 percentile of the inflation distribution. Note that most SDSs do not have independent monetary policy and inflation patterns ressembling AMs. 6/ The threshold captures extreme recourse to domestic arrears buildups in line with evidence from Checherita-Westphal et al. (2015). It is also consistent with th 99 percentile of the distribution of the increase of OAPs-to-GDP ratio. 7/ The threshold captures extreme recourse to monetization of substantial fiscal deficits. It is consistent with the 95 percentile of the distribution of the increase of the net claims-to-deficit ratio in severe deficit situations. 8/ Following IMF(2015), market access is defined as ‘the ability to tap international capital on a sustained basis through the contracting of loans and/or issuance of securities across a range of maturities, regardless of the currency denomination of the instruments, and at reasonable interest rates’. Against this backdrop, Guscina et al. (2016) compile an indicator of the loss of market access (LMA), which equals 1 when sovereigns default or stop issuing bonds controlling for financing needs and previous pattern of issuance. 9/ The threshold is consistent with Pescatori and Sy (2007). It is also used by Baldacci et al. (2011) and roughly consistent with the 95 percentile of the spreads distribution.P21
T_2.2
18835705033
Formulae, linksNumber of Identified Fiscal Crises Episodes
TotalAMEMLIDCSDS
With start date within sample period4362515417186
Average per country2.30.72.23.42.6
With start and end date within sample period4002314315480
Average per country2.10.72.03.12.4
Memorandum items:
Ongoing at sample period start3212290
Ongoing at sample period end36211176
Number of countries with no fiscal crisis3720917
values onlyNumber of Identified Fiscal Crises Episodes
TotalAMEMLIDCSDS
With start date within sample period4362515417186
Average per country2.30.72.23.42.6
With start and end date within sample period4002314315480
Average per country2.10.72.03.12.4
Memorandum items:
Ongoing at sample period start3212290
Ongoing at sample period end36211176
Number of countries with no fiscal crisis3720917
Source: Authors' calculations.
T_2.3
Fiscal Crises Database (this paper)Bruns and Poghosyan's (2016) update of Baldacci et al. (2011)Laeven and Valencia's (2012)debt crisesReinhart and Rogoff's (2011b)externaldebt crisesReinhart and Rogoff's (2011b)domestic debt crises
Number of events436201677526
Number of common events141676522Need to check, our start dates may be differing quite a bit
Number of countries188801576969
Note: We consider events to overlap when the start date is within one year of our start date, or
the event falls within our crisis period.
T_2.4
AMEMLIDCSDS
Credit event08514171
Official financing1140296
Implicit default131897
Market confidence72543
Source: Authors' calculations.
F. 2.1, 2.2
*Note, the numbers don't necessarily add up to the sameCrisis Episodes per Decade1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015
because of confluent startsAdvanced738044
Emerging20404614229
*Also, the start of an episode based on a criterionLow Income263736222526
doesn't mean the start of a full fiscal crisis episodeSmall Developing States7142717129
RR162932132011
HIPC213027171922211590.2796208531
Fragile131819151116147340.231292517
AMCredit event001004
AMExceptional financing223024
AMImplicit default416020
AMMarket confidence002024
EMCredit event1641561898
EMExceptional financing822264117
EMImplicit default31319041
EMMarket confidence07249124
LIDCCredit event213948312723
LIDCExceptional financing726263916
LIDCImplicit default2129100
LIDCMarket confidence028001
SDSCredit event21225151312
SDSExceptional financing232044
SDSImplicit default433010
SDSMarket confidence013010
TotalCredit event3992130644947
TotalExceptional financing19535772631
TotalImplicit default132937171
TotalMarket confidence010379159
505050
Crisis Episodes per Decade
Advanced1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015738044Emerging1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 201520404614229Low Income1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015263736222526Small Developing States1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 20157142717129
Advanced1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015738044Emerging1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 201520404614229Low Income1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015263736222526Small Developing States1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 20157142717129
Crisis Episodes per Decade
RR1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015162932132011HIPC1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015213027171922Fragile1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015131819151116
AMs - Number of episodes based on individual criteria
Credit event1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015001004Exceptional financing1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015223024Implicit default1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015416020Market confidence1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015002024
EMs - Number of episodes based on individual criteria
Credit event1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 20151641561898Exceptional financing1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015822264117Implicit default1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 201531319041Market confidence1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 201507249124
LIDCs - Number of episodes based on individual criteria
Credit event1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015213948312723Exceptional financing1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015726263916Implicit default1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 20152129100Market confidence1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015028001
LIDCs - Number of episodes based on individual criteria
Credit event1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 201521225151312Exceptional financing1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015232044Implicit default1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015433010Market confidence1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015013010
RR Countries - Number of episodes based on individual criteria
1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 20151#REF!1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 20151#REF!1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 20151#REF!1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 20151#REF!
Episodes triggered per criterion
Credit event1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 20153992130644947Exceptional financing1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 201519535772631Implicit default1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015132937171Market confidence1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015010379159
Crisis Episodes per Decade
Market confidence1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015010379159
F. 2.3
idcountrycodeifscodeyeard_amd_nsemd_nslidcd_sdsConfluence_SYat least 2 crit?Confluence_CYat least 2 crit?Confluence_DYat least 2 crit?ngdpngdp_gngdpdngdpd_gngdp_rngdp_r_gngdprpcngdprpc_gUsing DY ConfluenceCrisis, at least two criteriaCrisis, only one criterionNo crisis
1111970United StatesUSA111197010000000001066.32138547481066.32138547484710.023732504822953.2845801729Real Growth1.15635203962.73613601034.2687939003
1111971United StatesUSA111197110000000001157.52549176130.08553153631157.52549176138.55315362974867.4951277583.343324878923424.66571298112.0536543742Real per capita Growth-0.79906522690.78054889742.486576304
1111972United StatesUSA111197210000000001272.216514370.09908293461272.216514379.90829346095131.72455983495.428447797924435.62775818394.3158013762
1111973United StatesUSA111197310000000001421.06100045170.11699619081421.061000451711.69961908225427.97482108255.772918203125601.31094640594.770424561Using CY confluenceCrisis, at least two criteriaOnly one criterionNo crisis
1111974United StatesUSA111197410000000001539.46993012020.08332431161539.46993088998.33243121875395.8881731469-0.591134796925216.6314862895-1.5025771958Real Growth2.598674381.84143440494.2962196776
1111975United StatesUSA111197510000000001677.08377280770.08939040641677.08377448478.9390406945376.669093768-0.356180090524883.8090013366-1.3198530705Real per capita Growth0.49643647230.24462036662.5313684097
1111976United StatesUSA111197610000000001870.67134729810.11543107011870.671349168811.54310700695675.84829005795.564396675226015.36471927664.5473573514
1111977United StatesUSA111197710000000002083.46383480760.11375193612083.463836891111.37519360725939.15625942484.639094561926949.05510869163.5889959625
1111978United StatesUSA111197810000000002354.71720573930.13019346262354.71720809413.01934626376266.7033434285.515044051628161.74186886374.4999231152
1111979United StatesUSA111197910000000002632.150.11782000562632.1511.78200044376466.23.183438654128738.30477690292.0473268689
1111980United StatesUSA111198010000000002862.4750.08750451152862.4758.75045115216450.4-0.244347530228338.220213856-1.3921647994
1111981United StatesUSA111198110000000003210.950.12173905453210.9512.1739054496617.752.594412749628783.37999295391.5708812189
1111982United StatesUSA1111982100000000033450.041747769433454.17477693526491.275-1.911148048827964.225171906-2.8459299125
1111983United StatesUSA111198310000000003638.1250.08763079223638.1258.763079222767924.63275704728995.09704520673.6863952674
1111984United StatesUSA111198410000000004040.70.11065452674040.711.06545267147285.0257.258907538330828.61401840196.3235414261
1111985United StatesUSA111198510000000004346.750.07574182694346.757.57418269117593.84.238489229631851.11706243933.3167337443
1111986United StatesUSA111198610000000004590.1250.05599010764590.1255.59901075527860.53.512075640732671.40311841032.5753760986
1111987United StatesUSA111198710000000004870.2250.06102230334870.2256.10223033148132.63.461611856833501.85323835252.5418256967
1111988United StatesUSA111198810000000005252.6250.07851793295252.6257.8517932958474.54.204067579934594.38496943473.2611083432
1111989United StatesUSA111198910000000005657.70.07711858365657.77.71185835658786.3753.680158121435531.23897404852.7081100168
1111990United StatesUSA111199010000000005979.5750.0568914935979.5755.6891493018955.0251.919449147135813.30740936130.7938603985
1111991United StatesUSA111199110000000006174.050.03252321446174.053.25232144428948.425-0.073701636835314.575384237-1.3925885689
1111992United StatesUSA111199210000000006539.30.05915889896539.35.9158898949266.553.55509489136087.90501232262.1898313081
1111993United StatesUSA111199310000000006878.70.05190157976878.75.19015796895212.7458978836598.62058449771.4151987266
1111994United StatesUSA111199410000000007308.7750.0625227157308.7756.25227150489905.454.037916185337616.88283946152.7822421684
1111995United StatesUSA111199510000000007664.050.04860937717664.054.860937708410174.752.718705359238185.16852864331.5107197787
1111996United StatesUSA111199610000000008100.1750.05690529168100.1755.6905291589105613.796162067939175.65799723522.593911476
1111997United StatesUSA111199710000000008608.5250.06275790348608.5256.275790337911034.854.486791023640447.05569716533.2453767593
1111998United StatesUSA111199810000000009089.150.05583128359089.155.583128352411525.8754.449765968741757.03777592883.2387575713
1111999United StatesUSA111199910000000009660.6250.06287441629660.6256.2874416212065.94.685327578243216.76105015043.4957538944
1112000United StatesUSA1112000100000000010284.750.064605033310284.756.460503331812559.654.092110824744491.07924869612.9486665997
1112001United StatesUSA1112001100000000010621.8250.032774253110621.8253.277425314212682.250.976141851144465.4356889268-0.0576375314
1112002United StatesUSA1112002100000000010977.5250.03348765410977.5253.348765395812908.7751.78615781944819.17859585650.7955458019
1112003United StatesUSA1112003100000000011510.6750.048567413911510.6754.856741387513271.12.806811645645646.98463655131.8469906559
1112004United StatesUSA1112004100000000012274.9250.0663948912274.9256.639488996113773.4753.785481233746946.18598826422.846193154
1112005United StatesUSA1112005100000000013093.70.066703055213093.76.670305521214234.253.34537943448070.02011324992.3938773754
1112006United StatesUSA1112006100000000013855.90.058211200813855.95.821120080614613.82.666455907448887.0440367991.6996538001
1112007United StatesUSA1112007100000000014477.6250.044870777114477.6254.48707770714873.751.778798122349266.62467380540.7764442389
1112008United StatesUSA1112008100000000014718.5750.016642923114718.5751.664292313114830.375-0.291621144648669.1793724033-1.2126775588
1112009United StatesUSA1112009100000000014418.725-0.020372216714418.725-2.03722167414418.75-2.775553551446909.5034953375-3.615585674
1112010United StatesUSA1112010100000000014964.40.037844885714964.43.78448857314783.82.531772865247726.49866967261.7416410609
1112011United StatesUSA1112011100000000015517.9250.03698945515517.9253.698945497315020.5751.601584166548131.79981847120.8492161799
1112012United StatesUSA1112012100000000016155.250.041070246216155.254.107024618315354.6252.223949482648838.91432147481.469121258
1112013United StatesUSA1112013100000000016663.150.031438696416663.153.143869639915583.3251.489453503449205.69597020930.751002871
1112014United StatesUSA1112014100000000017348.0750.04110417317348.0754.11041729815961.652.42775530950016.11150309091.6469953669
1112015United StatesUSA11120151000000000179470.0345240034179473.452400338416348.8752.425970999250835.9223778961.6390935844
1121970United KingdomGBR1121970100000000053.4669663994128.3206168818660.124368553411890.411083591
1121971United KingdomGBR1121971100000000059.64091519340.1154722104145.189280233413.1457156001673.23839434641.986599255812088.8100086361.6685623706
1121972United KingdomGBR1121972100000000066.78258200990.1197444203167.078889691615.0766016768696.813059333.501681600712479.00991906953.2277776734
1121973United KingdomGBR1121973100000000076.69106429570.1483692602188.059271420512.5571709075748.09151774527.358997901713368.34942869317.1266832496
1121974United KingdomGBR1121974100000000086.61090903070.1293481167202.58659709977.7248654477735.3851300772-1.698507116613119.4548005473-1.8618201856
1121975United KingdomGBR11219751000000000109.32910488820.2623017829242.908498422219.9035384866730.2641606595-0.696365646813012.8270299202-0.8127454399
1121976United KingdomGBR11219761000000000129.46185385250.1841481185233.834863378-3.7354127596750.67684783792.795247018613367.51532530062.7256820871
1121977United KingdomGBR11219771000202020150.8160.1649454686263.251213049212.5799674378768.342.352963490613678.29776265612.3249080311
1121978United KingdomGBR11219781000002020175.1630.1614351262335.924047013327.605887594800.0724.129942473414241.73163871984.1191812449
1121979United KingdomGBR11219791000002020207.2930.1834291488439.08338478430.7091256752829.4843.676169144814749.00426742533.5618746482
1121980United KingdomGBR11219801000000000243.0970.1727217031565.018998854828.6814802006811.49-2.169300432614406.0003550506-2.3256072488
1121981United KingdomGBR11219811000000000269.0850.1069038285540.8281143917-4.2814285028804.618-0.846837299314277.161665809-0.8943404558
1121982United KingdomGBR11219821000000000294.8140.0956166267515.0691224685-4.7628795985821.3172.075394783614590.5562168022.1950760125
1121983United KingdomGBR11219831000000000323.0010.0956094351489.6598310184-4.9331808764855.8274.201788103715196.87122664964.1555304735
1121984United KingdomGBR11219841000000000346.9460.0741328974461.5668334798-5.7372477298875.1722.26038673715514.75828325272.0917927899
1121985United KingdomGBR11219851000000000382.0320.1011281294490.55518935256.2804243654911.174.113248595716111.50404922733.8463104296
1121986United KingdomGBR11219861000000000411.2170.0763941241602.90282336122.9021395445940.0393.168343997316583.85082210152.9317360529
1121987United KingdomGBR11219871000000000456.7730.1107833577746.560379921223.8276470094992.3065.560088464417468.94584888395.3370898971
1121988United KingdomGBR11219881000000000512.5250.1220562511911.84211493722.13909811731051.0515.920048855918466.70532012095.71161809
1121989United KingdomGBR11219891000000000567.4530.1071713575928.64504696221.84274577251077.5282.519097550918878.8282290282.2317078318
1121990United KingdomGBR11219901000000000616.8210.08699927571095.395598492217.95632810141083.4930.553581902318929.94042315290.2707381703
1121991United KingdomGBR11219911000000000649.0910.05231663641145.06259394854.53416058311069.873-1.257045500118626.2469750518-1.6043021864
1121992United KingdomGBR11219921000000000673.3160.03732142331182.41879508133.26237197251074.6490.446408125118661.96058001220.1917380619
1121993United KingdomGBR11219931000000000708.8960.05284294451064.2902733289-9.99041306211102.9662.63499989319110.89163807742.4055942897
1121994United KingdomGBR11219941000000000746.4240.05293865391142.40844228397.33993074191147.3494.023968100619829.05879506413.7578945587
1121995United KingdomGBR11219951000000000784.2430.05066691321237.72073969658.34310163381176.2822.521726170520271.98621283932.2337289044
1121996United KingdomGBR11219961000000000837.5150.06792792541306.72742209115.57530306971207.6632.667812650420763.06650161612.4224576893
1121997United KingdomGBR11219971000000000883.4880.05489215121446.494093314710.69593159681245.0883.098960554421351.44219226942.8337610468
1121998United KingdomGBR11219981000000000928.1030.05049870511537.11422529026.26481175381287.1283.376468169322011.59469858913.0918403561
1121999United KingdomGBR11219991000000000967.5790.04253407221565.48811853971.84591963191327.1933.112744031722615.92597641612.745513381
1122000United KingdomGBR112200010000000001027.5680.06199907191554.889907275-0.67699084641377.6113.798844629223394.54199639983.44277754
1122001United KingdomGBR112200110000000001067.0190.0383925931536.1726630527-1.20376652621415.6052.757962879223947.43964948492.3633617327
1122002United KingdomGBR112200210000000001121.0670.05065326861680.29862437359.38214595191450.912.4939866724459.44806891552.1380507767
1122003United KingdomGBR112200310000000001190.1030.06158061921943.392330354115.65755647031499.3223.33666457625176.68592154762.9323550172
1122004United KingdomGBR112200410000000001255.1070.05462048242298.15999515518.25507177631536.6312.488391419625678.13575749471.9917229675
1122005United KingdomGBR112200510000000001330.4180.06000364912419.18183900555.26603213461582.6752.996425296626275.00622561632.3244306898
1122006United KingdomGBR112200610000000001406.620.05727673562588.29932808086.99068942851624.8022.661759363126818.99511422162.0703663548
1122007United KingdomGBR112200710000000001484.2730.0552053862970.067243140114.74975907611666.8212.586099721727331.20716229951.9098853104
1122008United KingdomGBR112200810000000001519.5970.02379885642787.6137818888-6.14307509951659.039-0.466876767227021.0593178931-1.1347755061
1122009United KingdomGBR112200910000000001485.727-0.02228880422316.2601524728-16.90885704751589.493-4.191944854825723.2813309166-4.8028390438
1122010United KingdomGBR112201010000000001555.5480.04699450172402.99931330683.74479355191613.9741.540176647525922.29610356240.7736756835
1122011United KingdomGBR112201110000000001619.480.04109934252596.34283247318.04592486131645.8081.97239856426006.2890100340.3240180042
1122012United KingdomGBR112201210000000001665.2130.02823931142639.40377279941.65852289571665.2131.179056123226139.43960442670.5119938271
1122013United KingdomGBR112201310000000001734.9490.04187812612712.50935591162.76977641181701.182.159903868226544.80214379421.5507698157
1122014United KingdomGBR112201410000000001817.2340.04742790712991.690429813310.2923543211749.7122.852843320527086.68695912142.041397078
1122015United KingdomGBR112201510000000001863.9950.02573196412849.3447434217-4.75803528911789.0462.248027103927482.73091194831.4621350829
1221970AustriaAUT1221970100000000028.463679442115.0641833934112.242282735315124.6257926507
1221971AustriaAUT1221971100000000032.07579773580.126902718317.680983938317.3710082826117.98138072825.113133707715834.03483771114.6904237816
1221972AustriaAUT1221972100000000036.65007777970.142608457721.818091042423.3986248646125.30550518166.207864671716749.63311847165.7824697883
1221973AustriaAUT1221973100000000041.50839463190.132559523729.385660389334.6848371481131.42955325174.887293707717474.91189551014.3301173937
1221974AustriaAUT1221974100000000047.23676217790.138005037234.846655050918.5838759083136.61282863293.943767024118164.0817083433.9437670241
1221975AustriaAUT1221975100000000050.13626592750.061382355939.69981716613.9271964785136.1178612572-0.362313979317978.8896501455-1.0195508981
1221976AustriaAUT1221976100000000055.3653578070.104297593442.50499742067.0659777672142.3479659564.576992792318837.81788831964.7774264979
1221977AustriaAUT1221977100000000061.24761932280.106244441451.036583176720.0719592374149.00544714574.676906441919711.28897255924.636795458
1221978AustriaAUT1221978100000000064.67041225890.055884505861.364996572620.2372744276148.4653889064-0.36244194419655.6871238847-0.2820812416
1221979AustriaAUT1221979100000000070.56960975010.091219419972.736513564618.5309502601156.56368086195.454666582720763.25888042495.6348666397
1221980AustriaAUT1221980100000000075.81063015660.074267385480.742571836911.0069315669160.18657242292.314005100721243.72174998812.3140051007
1221981AustriaAUT1221981100000000080.70443268130.064552985769.9647434208-13.3483838462160.0272351075-0.099469832621179.9491292249-0.3001951424
1221982AustriaAUT1221982100000000086.6302646340.073426350469.9539965305-0.0153604369163.08025188241.907810737921556.95010765061.7799900091
1221983AustriaAUT1221983100000000092.31638643330.065636666670.87371367911.3147456817167.6537476992.80444490622226.94095906013.1080039062
1221984AustriaAUT1221984100000000096.91422562830.049805233666.8573659746-5.6669073709168.20966692090.331587709522298.28442666080.3209774468
1221985AustriaAUT12219851000000000102.14315980860.053954248268.47037785912.4126165622171.98322437882.243365394522783.13247289792.1743737633
1221986AustriaAUT12219861000000000107.36179831470.051091414497.157413723641.8970024139176.00852395562.340518728723292.02825876082.2336515247
1221987AustriaAUT12219871000000000111.47118983640.0382761055121.498633996125.0533843375178.96642610861.680544831823651.88655322551.5449847925
1221988AustriaAUT12219881000000000119.35721542140.0707449664133.2929024619.7073259813180.6859178830.960790139123848.83358406590.832690578
1221989AustriaAUT12219891000000000127.67292593090.0696707818132.9654843764-0.2456380486187.70931509643.887075039324717.13194059253.6408420289
1221990AustriaAUT12219901000000000137.21734191610.0747567733166.493448535825.2155394437195.86648953844.345641790725620.87818365373.656355621
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