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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit
Somalia
Northeast
Post Deyr 2010/11
26th January 2011Information for Better Livelihoods
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC
Deyr 2010-11 Seasonal
Assessment Coverage:
Performance of the Season Deyr 2010/11
Overall statement: The overall seasonal performance in Northeast was poor except in the localized areas of western Burtinle, Northern Galkacyo, Iskushuban and Caluula districts.
Start of Season:
Started on time in 3rd dekad of September in Hawd along the border, but the rains were generally patchy and less intensive.
Performance:No significant rains occurred in NE regions.
Bari region: The overall rainfall performance was poor except in parts of Caluula district.
Nugal region: Generally poor rainfall except from patchy rains along the borderline of western Burtinle district and Ethiopia.
Northern Mudug: No rains in the entire region with the exception of localized areas in northern Galkacyo.
Climate
Pasture and Browse condition
Overall pasture and water availability deteriorated in most parts of Bari, Nugal and north Mudug regions with the exception of Caluula and localized area in western Burtinle, bordering with the Somali region of Ethiopia.
ClimateVegetation Conditions
NDVI at the end of December 2010
Water Situation:
Availability & Access to Water in all Livelihood zones of Northeast is very poor as the Deyr rains missed. RFE shows 0-25mm which is 0-20% of the LTM
ClimateWater Conditions
Civil Insecurity
Overall situation: • Stable security situation in all of Northeast apart from:
B/Beyla: Tension related to clan retaliation in localized rural areas of Beyla district.
Galkacyo towns: Resource based conflict in northern Galkacyo
• Increased presence of sea pirates directly impacting fishing livelihoods.
Deyr 2010/11 Livestock
Migration
Livestock
Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
Region Conception (Deyr ‘10/11)
Calving/kidding (Deyr ‘10/11)
Milk production (Deyr ‘10/11)
Expected calving/ kidding Jan – Jun ’11
Herd Size Recovery Projected at (June 2011)
Livelihoods Livestock species
Northeast Camel: none to low
Sh/Goats: none to low
Camel: Medium to Low in Bari & Mudug
None in Mudug
Sheep/Goat: Medium to low
Camel: Low to noneSheep/Goat: low to none
(Poor yield due to the drought )
Camel: Low in all regions
Sheep/Goats: Low to None in Bari regionButLow to medium in Nugal & Mudug regions
Hawd Pastoral
Camel: Slightly above Baseline. Slight decrease of 4% between Jun - Dec ’10 but expected to increase 21% in Jun ’11
Goat: Slightly below Baseline. Same as Jun ‘10 and projected unchanged in Jun 11.
Nugal Valley Pastoral
Sheep/Goats: Below Baseline. Increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to Decline by 43% till Jun ‘11
Sool Plateau Pastoral
Sheep/Goats: Below Baseline. Decreased by 2% between Jun – Dec ’10 and is expected further decrease of 20 % till Jun ‘11
Addun Pastoral
Camel: Same as baseline. Sustained unchanged between Jun – Dec ’10 and is expected to increase by 23% in Jun ‘11 Sheep/goat: Same as Baseline. Slightly increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ’10 but declined by 4% in Jun ’11
Livestock Livestock Exports-Bossaso
Livestock Water Prices
RAKO
Kalabayr Significant water price increases starting from September indicating water shortages due to Deyr season rain failure
Early commercial water trucking is ongoing in all livelihood zones
Prices of water range is SoSh 80,000-150,000 in Bari region. In Nugal and Mudug region the water price is between SoSh: 100,000-200,000 for one drum of water
Accumulated debts of poor pastorals is mainly incurred with water for livestock and human.
Debts level range US$ 300-400 in Bari region while in Nugaal & Mudug ranges US$ 200-300
Water crisis in Galdogob Mudug, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos
Dried up shallow well. Xamurre, Qandala Bari, FSNAU, Dec ’10
Poor L/S feeding with leaves, Darmadow, Qandala, Bari, FSNAU, Dec. ’10
Carcasses of Deyr off-spring, Iskushuban,Bari, FSNAU, Dec. ’10
Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos
Deyr 2010/11Local Cereal Flow
MarketsRegional Trends in Cereal Prices (Red Rice)
Regional trends in imported rice prices in:
1- Garowe market2- Galkayomarket3- Bosassomarket
1 2
3
MarketsLivestock Prices
Local goat prices:
1 -Garowe market
2 -Bossasomarket
3 -Galkayo market
1 2
3
MarketsTerms of Trade (local quality goat/ rice)
1 -Garowe market
2 -Bossasomarket
3 -Galkayo market
1 2
3
Trend in imported commodity prices compared to exchange rate
Markets
Region Nutrition Surveys (Oct –Dec10)
Rapid MUAC Screening
(% <12.5cm)
Health Information System Info
TFC/OTP/SFC
Other relevant information – Key driving factors
Summary of analysis and
change from Gu 10
NE Hawd Pastoral (n=593)GAM:13.0%&SAM:2.9%;Oedema: 0.3%•CMR: 0.30/ 10,000/day
•U5MR: 0.62/10.000
Addun Pastoral=591•GAM: 12.0% SAM: 2.5%•CMR:0.71/10,000/day&U5MR:1.91/10,000/day.
Golis/Dharoor- assess. N= 659
•GAM: 11.1%, SAM: 2.1% •CMR: 0.13/ 10,000/day •U5MR: 0.3/10.000/day Sool Plateau: assessm.N=637
GAM: 8.3%, SAM: 1.6%•CMR: 0.45/ 10,000/day
•U5MR: 1.11/10.000/day Coastal Deeh: Assess. N=670•GAM:12.5 % SAM: 2.5%;•CMR: 0.38/ 10,000/day •U5MR: 1.1/10.000/dayNugaal assessment N=516•GAM:10.3%:SAM:1.0%•CMR: 0.71/ 10,000/day •U5MR: 1.91/10.000/day
Hawd: <12.5cm=3.7% <11.5cm=1.7%
Addun:<12.5cm=2.8% <11.5cm=0.6%
Golis:<12.5cm=.5.1%<11.5cm=0.5%
Sool Plateau:•<12.5cm=2.9•11.5cm=1.3%
Coastal Deeh: •<12.5cm= 6.5 •<11.5cm= 2.5
Nugaal•<12.5cm= 4.2 ,<11.5cm= 1.2
•Low proportion and but increasing in Hawd & Addun pastoral MCHs.(FSNAU, HIS, Jan – Dec’10, R=3).
•Low proportion and stable in Golis and Sool (Jan-Dec’10, R=3). Low
•Low proportion and stable (MOH, SRCS,Jan-Dec10, R=3)
•Low proportion and decreasing in Nugaal Valley( MOH,SRCS,Jan-Dec10, R=3)
OTP data shows increasing trend in last 3 months(UNICEF,Jan-Oct’10)
Hawd/Addun: •High morbidity and suboptimal child feeding is a concern •Low access to safe water 30.9% & 61.7% latrine 35.1% &54.3% in Hawd and Addun respectively•High morbidity: 34.6% in Hawd and 32.8% in Addun•low coverage of health programmes<80
Golis, Sool plateau, Coastal & Nvaley•High morbidity in Golis and Coastal•Low food access (low frankincense production, fishing and high temperature, cyclone impact .•Limited milk availability in Golis/karkaar.•Poor infrastructure in Golis and coastal areas.
Some mitigating factors • Interventions in Hawd and Addun(health, nutrition, WASH and Food Aid)•Gu impact on livestock•Active social support •High immunization status and Vit A supplementation except in Addun and Hawd .• Ongoing Child Health Days.
Hawd –Serious improvement from GU’10
Addun: Serious – Improved from post Gu’10 Very Critical
Golis: Serious Improved from post Gu,10 Critical phase
Sool Plateau: Sustained Alert since Gu ‘10
Coastal Deeh: sustained Serious since GU’10.
Nugal Valley: Serious- deteriorated from Alert in Gu’10
NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings
Region Nutrition Surveys (Oct -Dec10)
Rapid MUAC Screening (%
<12.5cm)
Health Information System Info
TFC/OTP/SFC
Other relevant information – Key driving
factors
Summary of analysis and
change from Gu 10
NE Bossaso IDPs: Nut. assessment N=749•GAM:15.6 % •SAM: 2.8%;•CMR: 0.15/ 10,000/day •U5MR: 1.24/10.000/day
Garowe IDPs: Nut. assessment N=761•GAM:13.3% •SAM: 2.5%;•CMR: 0.31/ 10,000/day •U5MR: 0.41/10.000/day
Galkahyo IDPs: Nut. assessment N=869•GAM: 16.3 % •SAM: 2.6%;•CMR: 1/ 10,000/day •U5MR: 1.5/10.000/day
Qardho IDPs: Nut. assessment N=214•GAM: >10.6 % •SAM: 2.9%;•CMR: / 10,000/day •U5MR:/10.000/day
Bossaso: •<12.5cm= 15.1% •<11.5cm= 4.3%
Garowe IDPs: •<12.5cm= 9.6% •<11.5cm= 0.4%
Galkahyo IDPs: •<12.5cm= 5.1% •<11.5cm= 0%
Qardho IDPs: •<12.5cm= 13.2% •<11.5cm= 8.1%
•High>25 %, stable .(FSNAU, HIS, Jan –Dec ’10, R=3).
• N/A
•N/A
•N/A
High OTP admission and increasing trend s in Bossaso ( Jan-Dec’10, R=2)
Bossaso, Garowe and Galkacayo IDPs:
•High morbidity and suboptimal child feeding is a concern •Poor Housing conditions•Low access to safe water 28.5% %, 14.0%, 31.5% latrine 60.7 % & 41.7 %, and 65.4% in Bosaso, Garowe & Galkacayo IDPs respectively•Limited access to milk and milk products•Limited consumption of fruits and vegetables
Some mitigating factors •Child Health Days conducted in all IDPs.• >80% of Vitamin A and Measles vaccination Coverage•Access to humanitarian interventions•No outbreak of diseases reported
Bossaso IDPs Critical; improved from Gu’10 Very Critical phase
Garowe IDPs: Sustained Serious since post Gu’10.
Galkahyo IDPs: Critical -deteriorated from post Gu’10 from Serious
Qardho IDPs Serious:
NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings
Nutrition Situation, July, 2010
NutritionNutrition Situation Estimates
Nutrition Situation, January, 2010
Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation
MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONESMAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11
Key IPC Reference Outcomes: HAWD: HE - NUGAL Eyl dist. (75% P HE; 25%P & 25%M AFLC); other districts (25%P HE, 75% P AFLC); Addun: HE -NUGAL & N. Mudug (50%P HE; 50%P AFLC; 100%M AFLC); Sool Plateau: BFI High Risk to AFLC(25%P AFLC); Coastal Deeh: BARI AFLC HR to HE(25%P HE; 75%P and 25%M AFLC); EYL and JARIBAAN – HE (100%P HE; 50%M AFLC); GOLIS-GAGAB – AFLC (100%P) -Watch
Main Contributing Factors: • Three previous seasons of poor rains (Golis/Gagaab and Karkaar/Dharoor zones)• Below normal or failed Deyr 2010/11 rainfall in all livelihoods• Failed production of frankincense and loss of fishing activities (East Golis/Gagaab, Coastal Deeh and
Karkaar/Dharoor zones)• Decreasing livestock herd sizes and low productivity• High death of Deyr off-spring• Low Terms of Trade• Poor infrastructure and difficult market access
NE Regions - Affected Districts
UNDP 2005 Rural Population
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Gu 2010 Deyr 2010/11
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Bari
Bandarbayla 8,976 0 0 1,000 1,000
Bossaso 57,725 15,000 0 15,000 0
Caluula 27,002 8,000 0 8,000 1,000
Iskushuban 36,519 5,000 0 7,000 1,000
Qandala 26,902 7,000 0 7,000 0
Qardho/Dan Gorayo 45,613 0 0 3,000 0
Sub-total 202,737 35,000 0 41,000 3,000
NorthMudug
Gaalkacyo 58,007 20,000 11,000 22,000 9,000
Galdogob 33,366 4,000 6,000 6,000 4,000
Jariiban 32,866 16,000 5,000 16,000 6,000
Sub-total 124,239 40,000 22,000 44,000 19,000
Nugaal
Burtinle 26,005 3,000 3,000 5,000 2,000
Eyl 25,259 3,000 2,000 6,000 4,000
Garoowe 24,596 2,000 3,000 3,000 2,000
Sub-total 75,860 8,000 8,000 14,000 8,000
GRAND TOTAL 402,836 83,000 30,000 99,000 30,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 113,000 129,000
IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts
IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zones
NE Regions - Affected Livelihood Zones Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Gu 2010 Deyr 2010/11
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Bari
Coastal Deeh: sheep 7,699 1,000 0 2,000 3,000
East Golis Pastoral 85,474 26,000 0 25,000 0
Gagaab Pastoral 28,539 8,000 0 9,000 0
Kakaar pastoral: sheep & goats 32,793 0 0 2,000 0
Sool pastoral; camel&shoats 48,233 0 0 3,000 0
Sub-total 202,737 35,000 0 41,000 3,000
NorthMudug
Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel 46,886 30,000 7,000 30,000 7,000
Coastal Deeh: sheep 5,259 2,000 0 1,000 1,000
Destitute pastoralists 7,126 0 8,000 0 7,000
Hawd Pastoral 64,969 8,000 7,000 13,000 4,000
Sub-total 124,467 40,000 22,000 44,000 19,000
Nugaal
Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel 4,211 3,000 1,000 3,000 1,000
Coastal Deeh: sheep 7,014 0 0 1,000 2,000
Hawd Pastoral 43,178 5,000 6,000 8,000 4,000
Nugal valley-lowland pastoral: Sheep, camel 15,771 0 0 2,000 0
Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral 4,211 0 0 0 0
Destitute pastoralists 1,476 0 1,000 0 1,000
Sub-total 75,860 8,000 8,000 14,000 8,000
GRAND TOTAL 402,836 83,000 30,000 99,000 30,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 133,000 129,000
IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District
District UNDP 2005 Urban Population
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)Deyr ‘10/11
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Deyr ‘10/11
Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population
Deyr ‘10/11
Bari
Bandarbayla 5,400 2,000 0 37
Bossaso 107,181 36,000 0 34
Caluula 13,000 4,000 0 31
Iskushuban 8,508 3,000 0 35
Qandala 15,600 5,000 0 32
Qardho 29,944 10,000 0 33
Sub-Total 179,633 60,000 0 33
Nugaal
Burtinle 8,669 4,000 0 46
Dan Gorayo 5,599 3,000 0 54
Eyl 7,086 3,000 0 42
Garoowe 33,395 15,000 0 45
Sub-Total 54,749 25,000 0 46
North Mudug
Galdogob 7,067 2,000 0 28
Jariiban 6,341 2,000 0 32
Sub-Total 13,408 4,000 0 30
The End