For a new socio-economic paradigm : ADEME's long term perspectives on

an energy transition pathway

Isabelle VINCENT Head of the Prospective and Economics

Division

The necessity of a multidisciplinary approach

What is the population’s attitude towards CC ?

•  Environmental considerations come way after unemployment concerns, although they remain a concern for a majority of French people •  French panel : 35% of participants put unemployment as the most

important problem, environment ranks 10th with 3% of answers •  People are however aware that climate change issues will need

lifestyle changes

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Il faudra modifier de façon importante nos modes de vie pour empêcher l’augmentation de l’effet de serre

C'est aux Etats de réglementer, au niveau mondial, l’augmentation de l’effet de serre

Il n’y a rien à faire, le réchauffement de l'atmosphère est inévitable

Le progrès technique permettra de trouver des solutions pour empêcher l’augmentation de l’effet de serre

We will need to change our lifestyle substantially to prevent climate change

States have to propose regulations at the global level to prevent CC Nothing can be done, CC is inevitable Technical progress will allow to find solutions to prevent CC

What is the perception of their means of action ? •  People have a good knowledge of what should be done

•  However they feel that it is very complicated, costly or merely impossible for them to do it •  50% declare that it would be very difficult or impossible for them

to take public transportation, 53% to share their car

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Utiliser les transports en communplutôt que la voiture

Mieux isoler son logement

Acheter de préférence desvoitures consommant moins decarburant

Utiliser des appareils ménagersqui dépensent moins d'énergie

Acquérir pour son habitation unechaudière plus performante

Use public transportation rather than one’s own car

Better insulate one’s dwelling

Buy a more efficient boiler for one’s dwelling

Use energy efficient equipment

Favor buying car that consume less fuel

ADEME’s 2030 and 2050 Energy Transition Outlook

Need to assess 2050 goal’s feasibility and possible path towards it

•  Final energy consumption

•  GHG emissions

•  By mobilizing EE potentials

How has it been achieved ?

In 2030

•  By proposing changes in lifestyle, thus allowing to reduce energy demand

How has it been achieved ?

How has it been achieved ?

•  By mobilizing RE potentials

ADEME’s 2030 and 2050 Energy Transition Outlook : Macro-economic

impact assessment

Use of the 3ME modelling tool

•  Multisectoral Macroeconomic Model for Evaluating Energy and Environmental Policies (ThreeME)

•  Developed by ADEME since 2008 in collaboration with the French Economic Observatory (OFCE), an economic research centre at the Institute of Political Studies

•  Supply and demand neo-keynesian model •  24 production sectors, 17 energy sub-sectors

Assessment of ADEME’ 2030-2050 energy

outlooks : energy mix and consumption levels by

sector reproduced

Results

•  In 2050, between 690 000 and 875 000 jobs created

ADEME’s 2030 and 2050 Energy Transition Outlook : Lifestyle

illustrations

8 families’ lifestyle has been illustrated

Details by family

In depth analysis of consumption patterns by 2030 : how to decrease

French consumption’s environmental footprint

•  Broaden the scope of impact analysis : •  Include other environmental impact indicators : acidification,

photochemical oxydification and waste production

•  Shift from a cadastral accounting to a footprint accounting

•  Highlight the consumption issues from a consumer’s perspective •  Analysis of the weak signals and major trends relating to cross-

cutting issues (individual values, new economies, silver economy, ITCs, evolution of products, increase of revenue, territorial organisation)

•  Diagnosis, hypothesis and conditions of change for each consumption category (transport, food, housing, equipment, clothing, leisure and culture, health and education)

Why a new prospective exercise ?

•  GHG emissions

Quantitative Results

Conclusions

•  We won’t achieve global CO2 goals unless there is a shift from a quantity consumption pattern to a quality consumption pattern

•  This doesn’t rely on the sole consumer’s responsibility : consumer behaviour depends on available infrastructure and the nature of products supply

•  There is a need for environmental assessment of the potential of new economies (based on sharing of goods, functionality of products, collaborations in uses of goods) as well as of ITCs development

Up-dating of family descriptions

Deeper analysis regarding the nature of incentives to be mobilized

•  Sociological insights necessary to assess the potential impact of policy measures •  Age and generation effects •  Social imitation (mimicry) •  Strength of habit •  Attachment to objects •  Fashion •  Interest for new technologies

In conclusion

Up-date

Macro-economic analysis

Technical analysis

Sociological illustration

Broadened scope

Sociological drivers and policy measures

Up-date

Macro-economic analysis

Technical analysis

Broadened scope

Sociological drivers and policy measures

Or ?

Feed-back loops

Further work to be done… Thank you for your attention