For a new socio-economic paradigm : ADEME's long term perspectives on
an energy transition pathway
Isabelle VINCENT Head of the Prospective and Economics
Division
The necessity of a multidisciplinary approach
What is the population’s attitude towards CC ?
• Environmental considerations come way after unemployment concerns, although they remain a concern for a majority of French people • French panel : 35% of participants put unemployment as the most
important problem, environment ranks 10th with 3% of answers • People are however aware that climate change issues will need
lifestyle changes
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Il faudra modifier de façon importante nos modes de vie pour empêcher l’augmentation de l’effet de serre
C'est aux Etats de réglementer, au niveau mondial, l’augmentation de l’effet de serre
Il n’y a rien à faire, le réchauffement de l'atmosphère est inévitable
Le progrès technique permettra de trouver des solutions pour empêcher l’augmentation de l’effet de serre
We will need to change our lifestyle substantially to prevent climate change
States have to propose regulations at the global level to prevent CC Nothing can be done, CC is inevitable Technical progress will allow to find solutions to prevent CC
What is the perception of their means of action ? • People have a good knowledge of what should be done
• However they feel that it is very complicated, costly or merely impossible for them to do it • 50% declare that it would be very difficult or impossible for them
to take public transportation, 53% to share their car
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Utiliser les transports en communplutôt que la voiture
Mieux isoler son logement
Acheter de préférence desvoitures consommant moins decarburant
Utiliser des appareils ménagersqui dépensent moins d'énergie
Acquérir pour son habitation unechaudière plus performante
Use public transportation rather than one’s own car
Better insulate one’s dwelling
Buy a more efficient boiler for one’s dwelling
Use energy efficient equipment
Favor buying car that consume less fuel
ADEME’s 2030 and 2050 Energy Transition Outlook
Need to assess 2050 goal’s feasibility and possible path towards it
• Final energy consumption
• GHG emissions
• By mobilizing EE potentials
How has it been achieved ?
In 2030
• By proposing changes in lifestyle, thus allowing to reduce energy demand
How has it been achieved ?
How has it been achieved ?
• By mobilizing RE potentials
ADEME’s 2030 and 2050 Energy Transition Outlook : Macro-economic
impact assessment
Use of the 3ME modelling tool
• Multisectoral Macroeconomic Model for Evaluating Energy and Environmental Policies (ThreeME)
• Developed by ADEME since 2008 in collaboration with the French Economic Observatory (OFCE), an economic research centre at the Institute of Political Studies
• Supply and demand neo-keynesian model • 24 production sectors, 17 energy sub-sectors
Assessment of ADEME’ 2030-2050 energy
outlooks : energy mix and consumption levels by
sector reproduced
Results
• In 2050, between 690 000 and 875 000 jobs created
ADEME’s 2030 and 2050 Energy Transition Outlook : Lifestyle
illustrations
8 families’ lifestyle has been illustrated
Details by family
In depth analysis of consumption patterns by 2030 : how to decrease
French consumption’s environmental footprint
• Broaden the scope of impact analysis : • Include other environmental impact indicators : acidification,
photochemical oxydification and waste production
• Shift from a cadastral accounting to a footprint accounting
• Highlight the consumption issues from a consumer’s perspective • Analysis of the weak signals and major trends relating to cross-
cutting issues (individual values, new economies, silver economy, ITCs, evolution of products, increase of revenue, territorial organisation)
• Diagnosis, hypothesis and conditions of change for each consumption category (transport, food, housing, equipment, clothing, leisure and culture, health and education)
Why a new prospective exercise ?
• GHG emissions
Quantitative Results
Conclusions
• We won’t achieve global CO2 goals unless there is a shift from a quantity consumption pattern to a quality consumption pattern
• This doesn’t rely on the sole consumer’s responsibility : consumer behaviour depends on available infrastructure and the nature of products supply
• There is a need for environmental assessment of the potential of new economies (based on sharing of goods, functionality of products, collaborations in uses of goods) as well as of ITCs development
Up-dating of family descriptions
Deeper analysis regarding the nature of incentives to be mobilized
• Sociological insights necessary to assess the potential impact of policy measures • Age and generation effects • Social imitation (mimicry) • Strength of habit • Attachment to objects • Fashion • Interest for new technologies
In conclusion
Up-date
Macro-economic analysis
Technical analysis
Sociological illustration
Broadened scope
Sociological drivers and policy measures
Up-date
Macro-economic analysis
Technical analysis
Broadened scope
Sociological drivers and policy measures
Or ?
Feed-back loops
Further work to be done… Thank you for your attention