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23 FEBRUARY 2017 CAPRAL FULL YEAR RESULTS 1 2016 FULL YEAR RESULTS PRESENTATION 23 FEBRUARY 2017 CAPRAL LIMITED For personal use only
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Page 1: For personal use only - ASX · 2017-02-23 · Detated Housing Multi-Res Lo Rise Multi-Res Hig Rise. RECOVERY STARTED IN 2013. MULTI-RES ANTICIPATED TO SLOW IN 2017.DETACHED HOUSING

23 FEBRUARY 2017CAPRAL FULL YEAR RESULTS1

2016 FULL YEAR RESULTS

PRESENTATION

23 FEBRUARY 2017 CAPRAL LIMITED

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Page 2: For personal use only - ASX · 2017-02-23 · Detated Housing Multi-Res Lo Rise Multi-Res Hig Rise. RECOVERY STARTED IN 2013. MULTI-RES ANTICIPATED TO SLOW IN 2017.DETACHED HOUSING

23 FEBRUARY 2017CAPRAL FULL YEAR RESULTS2

GENERAL INFORMATION

Darwin

Cairns

Townsville Mackay

Springwood Bremer Park Gold Coast

Newcastle Rockdale

Erskine Park

Laverton

Angaston Welshpool

Canning Vale

Wangara

Bibra LakeKilburn

Lynbrook

Hobart

Campbellfield

Penrith Parramatta

Extrusion site

Warehouse/ Aluminium Centre

Corporate o�ce

Minto

Austex Dies

Kunda Park

Important NotesThis presentation includes forward-looking estimates that are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions outside of Capral’s control and should be viewed accordingly.

Trading EBITDA is the Statutory EBITDA adjusted for significant items that are material items of revenue or expense that are unrelated to the underlying performance of the business. Capral believes that Trading EBITDA provides a better understanding of its financial performance and allows for a more relevant comparison of financial performance between financial periods. These items are LME and Premium revaluation, and costs relating to restructuring that are non-recurring in nature.

Trading EBITDA is presented with reference to the Australian Securities and Investment Commission Regulatory Guide 230 “Disclosing non-IFRS financial information” issued in December 2011.

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Page 3: For personal use only - ASX · 2017-02-23 · Detated Housing Multi-Res Lo Rise Multi-Res Hig Rise. RECOVERY STARTED IN 2013. MULTI-RES ANTICIPATED TO SLOW IN 2017.DETACHED HOUSING

23 FEBRUARY 2017CAPRAL FULL YEAR RESULTS3

OVERVIEW OF RESULTSFULL YEAR TO DECEMBER 2016

Housing market remained strong, industrial markets are improving

• Dwelling commencements increased to 226,500 in 20162 - Detached housing and medium density steady - High density (apartments) up 9%

• Non-residential building activity improved by 7%2

• Business conditions in the industrial sectors are slowly improving

$20.3m Trading EBITDA1 $21.1m EBITDA

• Trading EBITDA1 of $20.3m (2015: $13.0m)• EBITDA of $21.1m (2015: $5.1m)• Revenue up 5.5% on 2015• Volumes up 9.7%• Strong housing market driving volume increase

Net Profit of $14.4m • Net Profit after tax of $14.4m (2015: $2.5m loss) includes: - LME and Premium revaluation of $1.0m - Depreciation and amortisation costs of $5.9m - Finance costs of $0.9m

Safety performance remains key focus

• TRIFR³ of 15.5 (2015: 13.3)• LTI frequency rate of 3.2 (2015:4.0)• Ongoing focus on strong safety culture and leading safety indicator management

3 TRIFR is total reportable lost time and medically treated injuries per million work hours2 Source: BIS Shrapnel Dec 2016 forecast (two quarters delayed)

Highly competitive environment • Investigation into dumping of aluminium extrusions from Vietnam and Malaysia delivered preliminary duties of ~13% in October 2016. Expect finalisation in first half of 2017

• Excess domestic extrusion capacity remains

1 See Important Notes (Page 2) and reconciliation of EBITDA (page 4)

Strong Cash Flow and Dividend declared

• Operating Cash Flow $15.6m• Fully franked dividend of 1.25 cps declared

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Page 4: For personal use only - ASX · 2017-02-23 · Detated Housing Multi-Res Lo Rise Multi-Res Hig Rise. RECOVERY STARTED IN 2013. MULTI-RES ANTICIPATED TO SLOW IN 2017.DETACHED HOUSING

23 FEBRUARY 2017CAPRAL FULL YEAR RESULTS4

FINANCIAL SUMMARYTWELVE MONTHS TO DECEMBER 2016

2015

Sales Volumes - External (‘000 tonnes) 57.8

Sales Revenue 402.6

Depreciation/Amortisation

(6.4)

EBIT

(1.3)

Finance Cost

(1.2)

(2.5)

$m

Restructuring related cost Trading EBITDA

(0.7)

5.1

2016

63.4

424.8

(5.9)

(0.9)

$m

-

21.1

15.3

14.4

EBITDA

20.3 13.01

Statutory Profit/(Loss) after Tax

Other one off costs (0.2) (0.2)

LME Revaluation (7.0)1.02

2

1 See Important Notes (page 2)2 Included in other expenses

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Page 5: For personal use only - ASX · 2017-02-23 · Detated Housing Multi-Res Lo Rise Multi-Res Hig Rise. RECOVERY STARTED IN 2013. MULTI-RES ANTICIPATED TO SLOW IN 2017.DETACHED HOUSING

23 FEBRUARY 2017CAPRAL FULL YEAR RESULTS5

TRADING EBITDA BRIDGE

Trading EBITDA $m

0

5

10

15

20

25

Trading EBITDAFY15

Volume Margin and Mix In�ation OtherCost Management Initiatives

Trading EBITDAFY16

$13.0m

$6.5m$0.5m ($3.4m)

$3.0m$0.7m $20.3m

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Page 6: For personal use only - ASX · 2017-02-23 · Detated Housing Multi-Res Lo Rise Multi-Res Hig Rise. RECOVERY STARTED IN 2013. MULTI-RES ANTICIPATED TO SLOW IN 2017.DETACHED HOUSING

23 FEBRUARY 2017CAPRAL FULL YEAR RESULTS6

BALANCE SHEET REMAINS STRONG

Positive operating cash flow driven by improved earnings

Robust financial position

The finance facility is used for intra month funding

1 Intra month average net cash level $8.9m, $2.4m maximum net debt level

$m $m Dec 16 Dec 15

EBITDA

Working Capital

Finance Cost

Equity Compensation Amortisation

Other

Operating Cash Flow

Capex Spend

Increase/ (Decrease) in Net Cash

12 months to

5.1

2.9

(1.2)

0.6

(0.1)

7.3

(3.7)

3.6

Acquisition -

$mDec 14

11.0

(1.2)

(1.2)

0.7

0.6

7.7

(3.0)

(2.8)

1.9

Acquisition Restructuring Costs - (2.2)

21.1

(5.0)

(0.9)

0.3

0.1

15.6

(4.3)

11.3

-

-

$m $m $m Dec 16 Dec 15 Dec 14

Net Assets 110.7 112.9

Net Cash 20.1 16.5

Franking Credits 27.1 27.1

Accumulated unrecognisedtax losses

289.6297.6

1

125.3

31.4

27.1

286.6

$m Capral Finance Facilities Limit Dec 16

GE Revolver 60 Nil

Dec 15

Nil

Drawn Down

1

1 $50.5m refinance completed with ANZ in January 2017

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Page 7: For personal use only - ASX · 2017-02-23 · Detated Housing Multi-Res Lo Rise Multi-Res Hig Rise. RECOVERY STARTED IN 2013. MULTI-RES ANTICIPATED TO SLOW IN 2017.DETACHED HOUSING

23 FEBRUARY 2017CAPRAL FULL YEAR RESULTS7

METAL COSTS HAVE BEEN STABLE THROUGHOUT 2016

Source: London Metal Exchange, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters

• Metal costs reached multi-year highs in H1 2015 but Premiums collapsed during the second half of 2015

• Metal costs in 2016 have generally been stable but LME increased late in the year and has continued to rise in early 2017

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

A$/kg

LME MJP Premium (Major Japanese Ports)2013 2014 2015 2016

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Page 8: For personal use only - ASX · 2017-02-23 · Detated Housing Multi-Res Lo Rise Multi-Res Hig Rise. RECOVERY STARTED IN 2013. MULTI-RES ANTICIPATED TO SLOW IN 2017.DETACHED HOUSING

23 FEBRUARY 2017CAPRAL FULL YEAR RESULTS8

RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION DRIVING STRONG MARKET

MONTHLY DWELLING APPROVALS ANDQUARTERLY DWELLING COMMENCEMENTS

Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS¹ BiIS Shrapnel Dec 2016 (2 Quarters Delayed)

2010 2011 2012

75

100

125

150

200

ANNUAL DWELLING COMMENCEMENTS

175

163

145

‘000

181

2013 2014

175

25

50

0

216

2015

163

225

2016E¹

227

2017F¹

250

211

Detatched Housing Multi-Res Low Rise Multi-Res High Rise

RECOVERY STARTED IN 2013. MULTI-RES ANTICIPATED TO SLOW IN 2017.DETACHED HOUSING REMAINED STABLE

March 2010

June 2010

June 2011

March 2011

Sept 2010

Dec 2010

Dec 2011

March 2012

Sept 2011

June 2012

Sept 2012

Dec 2012

0

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2,000

4,000

MONTHLYUNITS

APPROVALS COMMENCEMENTS

Source: ABS and BIS Shrapnel

March2013

June2013

14,000

Sept2013

Dec2013

March2014

June2014

Sept2014

Dec2014

March2015

16,000

18,000

June 2015

Sept 2015

22,000

20,000

Dec2015

March2016

Sept2016

BIS Shrapnelforecast

June2016

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Page 9: For personal use only - ASX · 2017-02-23 · Detated Housing Multi-Res Lo Rise Multi-Res Hig Rise. RECOVERY STARTED IN 2013. MULTI-RES ANTICIPATED TO SLOW IN 2017.DETACHED HOUSING

23 FEBRUARY 2017CAPRAL FULL YEAR RESULTS9

ALUMINIUM EXTRUSION DEMAND HAS RECOVERED FROM CYCLICAL LOW LEVELS AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS

• Extrusion Market in 2016 has grown and is expected to remain at these levels through 2017 due to the pipeline of residential work and a lift in non-residential construction

• The residential sector is strong with approvals exceeding ~230,000 dwellings1

• An increase in apartments relative to houses has increased the lag between approval and completion and reduced the intensity of aluminium extrusions

• Non-residential building demand increased by 7%1

• Key industrial sectors (manufacturing, marine and transport) are slowly improving

Note:• Capral has an estimated 29% share of the

Australian Aluminium extrusion sales volume

• Import market share has fallen to around 34% of the extrusion market, from a high of 40%

• Excess domestic extrusion capacity still exists but utilisation has improved

1 Source: BIS Shrapnel year ending December 2016 forecast (Dec 2016)

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

20

40

60

80

29.332.7

62.0

30.3 28.8

22.5

28.1

50.6

26.725.7 23.0

52.4

59.1

150

175

200

‘000Tonnes

PA

200

183

165171

160

ALUMINIUM EXTRUSION MARKET SALES VOLUME

CAPRAL EXTRUSION PRODUCTION VOLUME

H2 FY

156.

22.4

45.4

H1

2012

20.5

125

21.7

42.2

2013 2014

161

20.6

Forecast

173

22.2

42.8

22.7

(Based on BIS Shrapnel forecasts and GDP projections)

23.0

45.7

179

2015

22.7 23.2

45.9

186

2016

26.9

186

26.9

53.8

2017e

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Page 10: For personal use only - ASX · 2017-02-23 · Detated Housing Multi-Res Lo Rise Multi-Res Hig Rise. RECOVERY STARTED IN 2013. MULTI-RES ANTICIPATED TO SLOW IN 2017.DETACHED HOUSING

23 FEBRUARY 2017CAPRAL FULL YEAR RESULTS10

• Widest aluminium product offer• Large scale extrusion capability• National distribution network• Committed and experienced people

• Continue to reduce cost base• Lean manufacturing drive to world class productivity• Optimise the supply chain to reduce inventory levels• Invest in technology to improve competitiveness

• Leverage our technical expertise with key customers• Develop innovative new products and value-add opportunities• Capitalise on positive anti-dumping outcomes

BUILDOn our strengths

OPTIMISEWhat we do

GROWIn the future

KEY STRATEGIC INITIATIVES

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Page 11: For personal use only - ASX · 2017-02-23 · Detated Housing Multi-Res Lo Rise Multi-Res Hig Rise. RECOVERY STARTED IN 2013. MULTI-RES ANTICIPATED TO SLOW IN 2017.DETACHED HOUSING

23 FEBRUARY 2017CAPRAL FULL YEAR RESULTS11

ANTI-DUMPING MEASURES HAVING A POSITIVE IMPACT ON VOLUME

• Case won in 2010 but the levels of duties imposed on Chinese imports were low

• Circumvention activities diminished the impact

The impact of the initial anti-dumping measures was modest

Key issues being pursued

• New case initiated by the Anti-Dumping Commission against Vietnam and Malaysia in August 2016

• Preliminary affirmative decision imposed temporary duties of ~13% • Expect investigation to finalise first half of 2017• Continue to interact with Government around strengthening the anti-dumping

regime• Continue to monitor and pursue anti-circumvention/non compliance activities

Response and Action

• A sustained campaign has resulted in reforms to federal legislation and methodology• Continuation of measures review finalised in October 2015. Anti-Dumping Commission

found ongoing dumping by Chinese importers and increased measures were imposed for a further five years to 2020

• Imports from China have reduced but imports from Vietnam and Malaysia have risen• Price suppression continues to have an adverse impact on local extruders

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Page 12: For personal use only - ASX · 2017-02-23 · Detated Housing Multi-Res Lo Rise Multi-Res Hig Rise. RECOVERY STARTED IN 2013. MULTI-RES ANTICIPATED TO SLOW IN 2017.DETACHED HOUSING

23 FEBRUARY 2017CAPRAL FULL YEAR RESULTS12

OUTLOOK

• Housing commencements are forecast¹ to be around 211,450 for the 2017 year, down 7% on the strong 2016 market. Detached housing down 4% and multi-residential down 10%

• Extrusion market expected to remain reasonably strong through 2017 due to pipeline of residential work and increase in non-residential

• Further material strengthening of the AUD above USD$0.75 will be a negative for local manufacturing and Capral’s competitive position against imports

• Anti-dumping measures assist volume but prices remain suppressed

• Capral expects to generate positive operating cash flow in 2017, and be net cash positive at year end

• Full year 2017 Trading and Statutory EBITDA² is forecast, absent any unforeseen events, to be between $19m and $22m

• On this basis, Capral would again be in a position to consider a franked dividend1 BIS Shrapnel Dec 2016 forecast (two quarters delayed)2 See Important Notes (Page 2)F

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