Foresight and strategy workat Tekes

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at Tekes

Examples of Foresight Methodology 30.3.2012

Pirjo Kyläkoski

02-2012Dm # 919038

Agenda

� Why

� How

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� What and Where

05-2011DM

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Maailman teollisuustuotannon jakauma 1750-2100

40

50

60

70%

Itä-Aasia

Pohjois-Amerikka

Eurooppa

Copyright © Tekes 4Lähteet: Bairoch (1982), ETLA.

0

10

20

30

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Itä-Aasia = Kiina, Japani, IntiaPohjois-Amerikka = Yhdysvallat, KanadaEurooppa = Saksa, Iso-Britannia, Ranska, Italia, Espanja, Ruotsi, Belgia, Sveitsi

Tuottavuuskasvun pääajurien pitkä historia

Pajarinen–Rouvinen–Ylä-Anttila: Missä arvo syntyy? Suomi globaalissa kilpailussa. Taloustieto (ETLA B 247). Sivu 22.

Value added

Does the value network still smile?

R&d&i

Design

Branding

Service, maintain

Pre production Production After production

Intangible phase Tangible Intangible phase

Proto, pilot

Start ofproduction

Mass production

Distribution

Selling

Marketing High cost countries

Low cost countries

Source: ETLA

Some challenges for approaches and practises

Network agility

ComplexityUncertainty

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Spontaneity

Creativity

Wisdom

Unexpectedness

Interdependancy

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Agenda

� Why

� How

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� What and Where

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Utilization of foresight

ForesightForesight--> Insight > Insight --> Strategy > Strategy --> Actions> Actions

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ForesightForesight--> Insight > Insight --> Strategy > Strategy --> Actions> Actions

Tekes – Foresight and strategy work

Strategy Focus areas

Year 3

Strategy processTrends and drivers

Implementation through customers- Programs- SHOKs- Projects

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Year1

Year 2

Strategy processTrends and drivers

Strategy processTrends and drivers

- Projects

Foresight triangle

Visionary

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Linear Disruptive

Foresight

Benchmark-information

Foresight -Insight –Strategy

FuturePast Decision making

Development of Innovation ecosystem

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Evaluation Implementation

FuturePast Decision making

Operations and their implications

Levels in drivers of change

Megatrends

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Changes in Innovation ecosystem

Signals

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Analysis of Innovation Environment

Economy andBusiness environment

Demography

Socio-culturalvalues and attitudes

approaches and practises

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Innovation

ecosystem

Political

legal

Globalenvironmental(sustainability)

Scientific

technological

How to monitor early discontinuities?

Signal strength

Zone of

diminishing

returns

signal

Threshold ofmainstream

awareness

Wisdom

of

crowds

Filter

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Brian Coffman (1997): Growth of signal in a noisy channel

Zone of highest opportunityand greatest risks

Signal strength

returns

noise

Time

Filter

Theory

Starting point in search of renewal

Disruptive

Wide committment

Combiningdifferent

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Renewal

Disruptivepaths different

needs

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Foresight metodology

� Megatrends, trends, signals

� Analysis of business environment

� Crowd-sourcing – commitment

� Workshops, “sudden collisions” – multidiciplinarity

� Visioning – scenarios, future windows, future pictures, narratives,

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� Visioning – scenarios, future windows, future pictures, narratives, future telling

� Sense-making sessions – signals, international expertise, crowd sourcing

� Delfoi-techniques, social media

� Disruptive paths, paradigm changes, black swans, extreme events

� White spots

� Context maps – to show integrated complex content

� Benchmarking

� Road-maps 02-2012DM

Agenda

� Why

� How

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� What and Where

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� Strategic themes� Multidisciplinary competences

needed for themes

The interface of Tekes’ strategy

Trends anddrivers

Globalmegatrends and weak signals

Tekes vision, strategy and resources

Global foresight� EU, USA, China

Japan and othercountries

Global business environment andglobal players

FinNodenetwork

MoJ MoD

MSAHMoEMTC

MEE

MAF

MoI

MEnv

MoF

PM’s OfficeMFA

Ministries

MFAEmbassy Network

MFAEmbassy

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needed for themes

� Potential areas for new businessfrom cooperation or paradigm changes of clusters

Society’s values and goals

e.g. ETLAand SitraRegional

strategies and visions

Academy ofFinland

Customer relationships,programmes,project fundingstrategy discussions

SCSTIs

Finpro

DM 36940703-2008 Copyright © Tekes

SCSTIs

Industryorganisations andtheir strategies

Finnvera

Researchorganisations,universities

Enterprises

Embassy Network

Growth and wellbeing from renewalTekes funds leading edge research, development and innovation projects.

Tekes strategy in a nutshell

How?Means

What?Services

What willchange?

Focusareas

For whom?Customers

Why?Objectives

• Balanced portfolio of reactive and proactive funding programmes

• Priority to growth-seeking, innovative SME’s

• Increased focus on forerunners and strategic

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change?areasObjectives

Challenges in the innovation environment

Mission statement and values

• Increased focus on forerunners and strategic innovations

• Customer success in global value networks

• Services and non-technical contents asimportant as industry and technologies

• Tekes will play a more essential role in the innovation services cooperation network

• A more customer-oriented and flexible approachStrategic research areas

determined by the Strategic Centres for Science,

Technology andInnovation

Value creation based on service solutions and intangible assets

Business in global value networks

Renewing services and production by digital means

Naturalresources and

sustainableeconomy

Intelligentenvironments

Vitalityof people

Value creation based on service

Business in global value networks Natural

resources andsustainable

economy

Focus areas

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Strategic research areasdetermined by the Strategic

Centres for Science, Technology and

Innovation

Value creation based on service solutions and intangible assets

Renewing services and production by digital means

Intelligentenvironments

Vitalityof people

Foresight work with Tekes’ committment

� Background:• The Future is in knowledge and competence,Technology strategy – a review of

choices, 2002

• Building on Innovation – Priorities for the Future, 2005

• FinnSight 2015, 2006

• NISTEP- Tekes -Foresight cooperation 2008-2009

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• NISTEP- Tekes -Foresight cooperation 2008-2009

• People, Environment, Economy – Building blocks for the Future, 2008

• National Innovation strategy, 2008 (MEE)

• International Evaluation of Finnish Innovation System, 2009 (MEE)

• Playing Fields of the Future – Four Global Scenarios, 2009 (Business Forum Finland + Tekes)

• Tekes four scenarios, 2010

• Research and Innovation Policy Guidelines for 2011-2015 ( The Research and Innovation Council of Finland, 2011

• Tekes strategy – Growth and wellbeing from renewal, 2011

• Government Foresight work, 2012-201311-2009DM

Government foresight: the target of the project

• The target is to crystallize the insight of the government of Finland in 2030 and to define those actions to secure sustainable growth and well-being of citizens. The implementation of the policy is also promoted

The foresight result can be widely utilized • The foresight result can be widely utilized among different actors of the Finnish society in their strategy and policy work

• The project is a pilot for national foresight model to create a Finnish competitive advantage and an element for pioneering

• The approach is interactive and co-operative

The societal impact of the government foresight

The healthy and well-being society

Sustainableenvironment

Responsible and productive economy

People

Governmental foresight – The model of sustainable growth

The most efficient utilization of

various background information and

coordination of projects and reports Policy

d

Foresightthemes

Foresightwork

Governmentalpolicy

definition

Global benchmark

defi

Nnition

Conclusions

� Finland – as forerunner – needs strong and advanced foresight work and “strategic intelligence” for fast decision making

� We need active constructive discussion on future alternative paths and multidiscipline discussion forums

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� We need those who catalyze discussions and bring disruptive ideas –challegers

� Foresight has crucial role in complexity management

� Systems architecture needs multidimensional foresight and understanding of interdependances

� We aim to make the future instead of reacting on issues that we face

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• Pioneership demands cooperation and good sources of information

• Our strength is wisdom of all and the foresight work

• We need a common vision and commitment towards future challenges

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