Frances Seymour
European Parliament
March 1, 2011
The role of Europe in fighting deforestation:
Balancing the risks of action against the risks of
no action
Presentation outline
� Brief introduction to CIFOR
� Review of deforestation trends
� Reasons for optimism / reasons for
caution
� A few examples
� Implications for the way forward
� Note that the closer you get to the ground, the more complicated it gets….
Brief introduction to CIFOR
CIFOR…• Is an international organization headquartered in Bogor, Indonesia
• Is a member of the CGIAR
• Has as its purpose to conduct research to inform policies and practices
that affect forests in developing countries
• Has a staff of about 200 globally
• Has an annual budget of about $27 million
• Is grateful to the European Commission for significant funding
CIFOR’s research domains
Sustainably managing tropical production forests6
CIFOR’s vision
We envision a world where:
� Forests are high on the political
agenda
� People recognize the value of forests
for maintaining livelihoods and
ecosystems
� Decisions that influence forests and
the people that depend on them are
based on solid science and principles
of good governance, and reflect the
perspectives of developing countries
and forest-dependent people
Review of deforestation trends
Net change in forest area 2005-2010(in ha per year)
Source: FAO Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) 2010
Trends in extent of forest area(in millions ha per year)
Source: FAO Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) 2010
Deforestation headlines�Forests still being lost at 13 million ha/year, compared to 16
million ha/year 1990-2000 -- deforestation rates have declined
in Brazil and Indonesia, but are still high
�Large scale tree-planting efforts, especially in China, drive net
deforestation figures for Asia
�Fires and drought have exacerbated forest loss in Australia
Reasons for optimism/
Reasons for caution
� Deforestation is back on international and national agendas,
getting attention from heads of state to popular media
� Possible “perfect storm” of
� Public understanding and support
� Political will
� Sources of finance
Reasons for optimism
Reasons for caution
� Governance challenges related to
forests are especially severe:
� Strong vested interests in
continuing business as usual
� Corruption
� Vulnerable communities with
weak/contested tenure
� Poor data
� Weak institutions for managing
money and information
The dilemma
Risks of no action:
� Loss of political momentum
� Business as usual continued
versus
Risks of action:
� Subversion of objectives by
vested interests
�Unintended negative
consequences for vulnerable
groups
A few examples
Example: VPAs in Central Africa�Great opportunity to leverage interest in EC market access to
promote improved governance forest sector governance
�Puts legality and sustainability of timber production on
national agendas
� Increases attention to transparency and civil society
participation
Risks to VPA implementation (1)
� Poor data� CIFOR research (supported by the EC)
revealed significant underestimation
of the absolute and relative size of
the “domestic” timber sector
� Vested interests� Government officials benefiting from
irregular payments resist efforts to
legalize the domestic timber sector
� Professionalizing –rather than
criminalizing – the domestic timber
sector will be a major challenge
Risks to VPA implementation (2)
� Vulnerable livelihoods � Some 45,000 people in Cameroon alone
derive income from the domestic timber
sector
� Possibility that government law enforcement
efforts to attain legality will focus on “little
guys with chainsaws” rather than “big guys
with bank accounts”
Detailed CIFOR Occasional Papers on Cameroon
and Gabon are in press; papers on Congo,
CAR, DRC, Indonesia, and Ecuador to follow.
This work is supported by the EC Pro-Formal
Project.
Example: REDD+ in Indonesia � Letter of Intent with Norway presents great opportunity to
leverage concern about climate change to reduce deforestation
Risks to REDD+ implementation (1)
� Vested interests� Businesses benefiting from current concession allocation
process resisting proposed moratorium on forest conversion
� Poor data� Definition and extent of “degraded” forest at issue
Risks to REDD+ implementation (2)
� Corruption risks� Systems for ensuring the integrity of
flows of funds and information still
weak
� Vulnerable livelihoods � Concern that permitting could have
the effect of displacing local rights
holders
A CIFOR analysis of corruption risks facing
REDD+ in Indonesia is forthcoming in
cooperation with UNODC.
Example: Bioenergy
� Policies to promote bioenergy
production have the potential to
reduce climate emissions and create
new livelihood opportunities in
developing countries
� But CIFOR research (supported by
the EC) suggests that such policies
require complementary actions to:� Protect the livelihoods of customary
landusers
� Channel investment away from carbon-rich
forest frontiers
� Level the playing field for smallholder
producers
CIFOR Occasional papers and
policy briefs produced under
the EC-supported Bioenergy,
sustainability, and trade-offs
project
Implications for the way forward
(1) Maintain focus on the procedural integrity of
design and implementation� Transparency – e.g., of decision-making to narrow the scope for vested
interests to “hijack” the process
� Participation – e.g., across sectors to prevent “concentration of power” in a
single ministry
� Independent third-party monitoring – e.g., of permit holders’ performance
to ensure the integrity of reporting
(2) Invest in capacity building� CIFOR-FAO survey on forestry research in DRC in 2005 found
less than 10 active researchers in the DRC (a country that
represents 60% of the Congo Basin forests and people) – EC-
supported REAFOR project now addressing
� Many gaps remain within forestry sector in and complementary
fields necessary for good governance
(3) Invest in research (conflict of interest alert!)
� Still many data gaps to be filled
� A priori analysis of risks can help anticipate mitigation needs
� Need to monitor impacts and understand why they occur
(4) Balance risks
� Be mindful of the risks of unintended negative consequences,
but don’t lose sight of the countervailing risks of no action
� Build and support domestic constituencies for change
� Strive for “optimal optimism” about the possibility of
transformation