Frank R. Leslie, B. S. E. E., M. S. Space Technology, LS IEEE

4/22/2010, Rev. 2.0.1

fleslie @fit.edu; (321) 674-7377

www.fit.edu/~fleslie

24 Future Trends in Renewable Energy

Crude Oil $65.71 on 4/25/07$117 on 4/24/08$50 on 4/23/09$82 on 4/22/10

CNNMoney.com

Happy Earth Day!

Some Energy News

Google has been granted utility status to buy and sell electricityhttp://www.google.org/egs/ has more info

DOE funds data center efficiency research

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24.I Introduction

Sustainable energy comes from the sun or from tidal forces of the moon and sun; usually implies not using it faster than can be replenished

Since fossil fuels represent millions of years of “stored sunlight”, they are not sustainable

Future predictions are predicated upon uncertain trends with a lot of “noise”

The future is ill-defined!

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1 The Age of Cheap Energy is Nearly Over!

“Hubbert’s Peak” indicates US oil production peaked about 1970; World peak may be 2007

Oil prices are volatile, but the long term trend is up as extraction becomes more expensive

Volatile gasoline and diesel prices are increasing in the long term!

Natural gas prices are rising and massive hydrogen production will speed that trendHydrogen will be made from natural gas

first, then coal, then possibly through nuclear thermal conversion or electrolysis from wind or sun

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24.1.1 Fossil Fuels

Renewable energy is sustainable indefinitely, unlike long-stored energy from fossil fuels that will be depleted

As easy-to-get fuel is extracted, costs will rise in getting the more-difficult resources; drill oil at 20,000 feet?

Fuels must be transported from farther away, thus increasing total costs of it and what’s made with it

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24.1.2 Energy Dependence upon Foreign Countries

Our dependency on cheap oil has led to a slavish relationship to the oil dealers(Like dependency on cheap drugs has led to a

slavish relationship to the drug dealers)

So do we need a “12-step way” to free us from our oil addiction?

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Is it best to use all our oil first so we can be at the mercy of outside despots? Should we use imported oil first to save our US oil for hard times later?

24.1.3 “But Wait! There’s More!”

We could break away from conventional fuels to use renewable energy or increase efficient useWind, solar, hydro, ocean tides and waves, geothermalMost/much oil is consumed in transportation; efficiency

needed

The eventual energy changeover will be based more upon relative price as fossil fuels become more expensive compared to renewables

These energies are diffuse compared to fossil fuels, so collection requires a large area converter

Fossil fuels have been so cheap that any tending towards “normal” is alleged to be price-gouging, and people demand that the government hold prices down

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24.2 Surfeit and Waste: What about Our Grandchildren?

Consider the ethics of using up resources that our children and grandchildren, etc. may need They might not live long enough to discover substitutes

If we waste resources, we unnecessarily use what might bridge the gap to a sustainable society

If bountiful fossil fuels are required to make renewable energy converters, burning them now will mean new RE converters must be made using RE Can you imagine smelting iron using RE? Perhaps solar thermal melt systems?

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24.2.1 The Bountiful Life

We have become conditioned to lives filled with the joys of cheap energy and little manual labor

Microwave ovens are more efficient cookers than electric range “eyes”, yet they were developed to just save time

Multiple family cars are the norm to allow independent travel of the family members

Vehicles enable greater “urban sprawl”Living farther away from work requires more energy-

consuming travel to get thereWhy should a business be located “downtown”?A clean industry like Harris Corporation is essentially

located in a residential area where workers can live nearby

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24.2.2 Conspicuous Consumption

Some objects are more for show than utilityV-12, 1200 hp Cadillac engine touted in ads12,000 square foot homesExpensive imported foods; 1500-mile saladLong-distance air travel for an hour meeting“Business” meetings at golf & ski resorts

Birthday party in Sardinia for Tyco exec Kozlowski’s wife$56,000 Hummers suitable for war support on our highways

Potential for a stylish new model with welded, inoperable 0.50 caliber machine gun on roof for show?

Unimog military SUVs now available (upper right) Driven to a renewable energy fair by an RE fan!

Conversely, if someone wants to pay for something wasteful, shouldn’t they be allowed to buy it?

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http://www.unimog.net/

24.2.3 Is Saving Your Own Money a “Cool” Thing to Do?

Saving energy isn’t seen as important, but not “being taken” is! Don’t be a gullible chump!

A change of viewpoint can persuade people to change what they buy“Core values” (deeply held) aren’t easily changed by

ranting

Most people don’t think about energy costs until it’s a problemHigh gasoline prices are changing that viewpointLife cycle costing is unknown to most people

New cars are advertised by monthly payments, not price!

Conservation is only a “virtue” according to Vice Pres. Dick Cheney -- What do we know?

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24.3 Cornucopians vs. Cassandras

Cornucopians believe that “needs” and “wants” will always be provided for Just in time, a technical breakthrough will allow us to get

more for less, and we want more, more, more!The “Horn of Plenty” is always full to overflowing!“Don’t worry, be happy!”“If it feels good, do it!” --- Nike trademark

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24.3 Cornucopians vs. Cassandras

Cornucopians believe that needs will always be provided for Just in time, a technical breakthrough will allow us to get

more for less, and we want more, more, more!

Cassandras shout that “We are doomed, doomed, doomed”, and no one will listen to them!Cassandra (mythic legend) was loved by Apollo (sun god)

but she spurned him; he punished her by making her unbelievable to everyone

No matter how we try, we can’t fight these oncoming events that will be our undoing and yet no one believes us

“Woe is me!”“We’ve told you for years that you’re doing the wrong

thing!”“What should we do instead?” No answer . . .

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24.3 Cornucopians vs. Cassandras

Cornucopians believe that needs will always be provided for Just in time, a technical breakthrough will allow us to get

more for less, and we want more, more, more!

Cassandras believe that we are doomed, doomed, doomed!No matter how we try, we can’t fight these oncoming

events that will be our undoing

We don’t have to choose one of these

philosophies!

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24.3.1 “The Horn of Plenty” Shall Always Provide

As European civilization expanded to North America, necessity led to inventions that preserved life or made it easier or betterSteam train, steam engines, windmills, waterpower,

electric lights, telegraph, repeating rifle, automobiles, etc.

New needs led to solutions; what worked evolved into better approaches

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http://desktoppub.about.com/

24.3.2 “The Sky is Falling”: What Shall We Do?What Shall We Do?

The Malthusian Theory held that the increase in population would swamp limited resourcesDeath, famine, war, and pestilence would result

An apocalyptic result (It’s been postponed so far!)

Scary movie: “No Blade of Grass”A group of economists, scientists,

and doomsayers examine the outlookRunningOnEmpty.comDieOff.comCaution: these sites may not be suitable

for children or adults!Still, there is great emphasis on self-sufficiency

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24.4 Energy Information Sources and Beliefs

Information sources should be skeptically analyzed Whose info is it? What or who do they represent? What do

they really want? What’s their agenda?Sometimes animal rights organizations push vegan diets for

good health, but they really want no animals killed for foodPETA now pressing for cloned synthetic chicken so real

chickens won’t be killed

Beliefs of an organization may taint or slant dataNonconforming info is ignored as it doesn’t match their

dogmaThey take surveys of their members (0.5% of population)

and contend that represents the Nation as a wholeSometimes pure hatred of the opposition overwhelms the

group and taints every viewpoint

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24.4.1 How Much Info Trust is Demanded?

Is information available to us accurate and complete?

How does the information provider make money?Their existence depends upon public hysteria?

Does the cash flow diminish if the truth is told?When polio was conquered, “March of Dimes” switched to

another childhood disease to support the organization staff

US Energy Information Agency is a USA official sourceDetailed info considered, validated, and publishedDelayed about 2-3 years sometimes

Commercial industry sourcesPlattsAmerican Wind Energy Association

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24.4.2 Agendas, Slants, & Scams

Agendas (often are hidden)Wants dam removal for river rafting; argues fish are being

killedLikes yachting in Narragansett Bay; argues wind farms

interfere with navigation (in shallow water yet)Wants next-door forest to remain; they plant endangered

species to “be discovered” --- can’t clear this!

SlantsCarefully selects info to push the “message”; rejects

opposite view; “framing” dominates the informationSelects minor views of opponents and trumpets them

ScamsVenture capital gatherers with wistful, visionary “products”Donation of solicitations with 70% going to staff salariesCentral issue changes to protect organization staff jobs

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24.4.3 Direct Effects Upon Consumers

High energy bills strain budgets as prices riseElectricity (and affects those bought from)Gasoline (and affects those bought from)Natural Gas (and affects those bought from)

High gasoline pricesToo high if majority buys fuel efficient vehicles; but not high

if majority buys poor efficiency vehicles (like 12-16 mph SUVs)

The “Time” magazine effect: Whenever a subject is so trendy that editors put it on the front cover of Time magazine, the trend may be overMisleads public to think this is “coming issue” when it’s past“Smart money” is bailing out; don’t rush in to investAvoid investing in something that will occur 20 years in

future

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24.5 What Does the Future Hold for Our Children Now?

People that we know, children and grandchildren, will suffer from increased fossil fuel prices (perhaps taxes)

Those that we don’t know, greatgreatgrandchildren may have it even worse; for great7grandchildren, worse yet

What we do today affects future generations --- shouldn’t we care?

(Is it really “All about MEME! MEME! MEME!”)A surging world population will fight to get or control

energy sources, leading to wars far worse than IraqPeople of Third-World countries will crave to live as those do in

the highly over-consuming U.S. and marketeers will ensure thisEffect of global TV influences and makes people aware of

distant consumption trends; “I want to live like those people in those TV shows!” Major cause of Watts, CA riots in 1965

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24.5.1 My Energy Costs ForecastCrude Oil

Prices become extremely volatile, destabilizing the market

GasolinePrices rise to $6-10 per gallon (CPI-adjusted) within your

lifetimes, and taxes will be extra!

ElectricityComes from more diverse sources, with growing renewables

used as fossil fuel, becomes more expensive by twice

Public TransportationAircraft: Oil costs may preclude, or use of gases may require,

frequent landing to refuel limited energy storage tanksTrains: Take over some air traffic, but tracks are vulnerable to

easy terrorist attack because they are accessible for milesTrucking Industry: Expands to carry more people in posh cargo

containers similar to Victorian train cars -- a specially bus

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24.5.2 Energy Shortages

In 1973, Arabian oil countries embargoed oil shipments to the United States because we had supported Israel in the Six-Day War against EgyptGasoline shortages across the US led to long lines of cars at

gasoline pumps, and angry drivers assaulting each otherPrices did not really soar, but gas fill-ups were often limited

to so many dollars or gallons (rationing); even-or-odd fill-up days

Trans-Alaska Pipeline approved in 1973 (with early enviro protest similarity to ANWR)

Through many contentious issues, California had an electricity crisis that was responsible for replacing Governor Davis with a popular actor, Arnold SchwarzeneggerBlackouts get the voters’ attention!Shortages or total outages are received very differently by the

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24.5.3 Lifestyle Changes Needed!

Practice energy conservation and save your money for “fun” purchases (and investments for retirement)

Increase energy efficiency to save even more money for needed/wanted uses

Think of the marginal utility of “supersizing” your lifeLess quantity or fewer features may be acceptable and allow

your money to be used for other things you really wantWould you rather eat a slice of watermelon or a whole

watermelon? Isn’t there a limit to “wants”?

Your time may be far more valuable than your moneyLive close to where you work so you don’t waste your life

stuck in trafficWork at what you would do for free, but don’t tell your boss!

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24.5.4.1 Green Energy Cities: US

Chicago, IL Goal: 20% RE by 2006; now 15% Solar on all municipal buildings RFP issued: Solargenix won 2010: 25% RE; 28% energy mgm’t; 22% distributed

generation;25% cogeneration

Sacramento, CA Goal: 10% nonhydro by 2006; 20% by 2011 ~60% RE now; among top ten US cities supplying RE

Portland, OR Goal: new wind farm; green buildings; 100% RE by 2010 10% RE now; 1 million kWh waste methane fuel cells; green

tags

Austin, TX “Goal” 35% RE and Efficiency by 2020; solar initiative 100MW

by 2020

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24.5.4.2 Green Energy Cities: International

Reykjavik, Iceland (geothermal and hydro) Goal: World’s first hydrogen city; whole country by 2050 Shell Hydrogen: electrolysis hydrogen for local buses

Vancouver, Canada (hydro plus gas) Goal: emissions reduced by 20% compared to 1999 emissions 90% RE now’ has 100-year plan” Grand Prize for Urban

Sustainability

Barcelona, Spain (nuclear is now 49%) Goal: reduce emissions by 20% compared to 1999 by

increasing solar panel installations

Sydney, Australia (coal, solar) Goals: Reduce coal use from 43% and oil use from 35% of

total usage 500MW Singleton Solar Farms

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24.6 International: Price Upsets

Taliban takes over Pakistan government and controls nuclear weapon missiles?

Many countries within reach of those missiles

If Israel is threatened, will they attack Pakistan first?

India has no policy plan to fight the Taliban!What would Iran (close to nuclear weapons

for their missiles) do in support of other Islamic nations?

International instability will immediately cause oil future prices to surge higher

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24.C Conclusion

Fossil fuel pollution may increase “Green House Effect”

Humans must have air, water, food, and energyFuture cars will be plug-in hybrids running

occasionally on bioethanol or biodiesel for long tripsTrains will replace aircraft for civilian long tripsRenewable energy offers a long-term, sustainable

approach to the World’s energy needsRequires substantial converter building to increase supply

Economics drives the selection process and short-term (first cost) thinking leads to disregard of long-term, overall cost

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25.C Conclusion

Fossil fuel pollution may increase “Green House Effect”Humans must have air, water, food, and energyRenewable energy offers a long-term, sustainable

approach to the World’s energy needsEconomics drives the selection process and short-term

(first cost) thinking leads to disregard of long-term overall cost

Increasing oil, gas, and coal prices will ensure that the transition to renewable energy will occur ―

How will we choose to do it?

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Thank you!

Questions? ? ?My website: my.fit.edu/~fleslie

for presentations

Roberts Hall weather and energy data: my.fit.edu/wx_fit/roberts/RH.htm

DMES Meteorology Webpage: my.fit.edu/wx_fit/?q=obs/realtime/roberts

References: Books

Brower, Michael. Cool Energy. Cambridge MA: The MIT Press, 1992. 0-262-02349-0, TJ807.9.U6B76, 333.79’4’0973.

Duffie, John and William A. Beckman. Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes. NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 920 pp., 1991

Gipe, Paul. Wind Energy for Home & Business. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Pub. Co., 1993. 0-930031-64-4, TJ820.G57, 621.4’5

Patel, Mukund R. Wind and Solar Power Systems. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 1999, 351 pp. ISBN 0-8493-1605-7, TK1541.P38 1999, 621.31’2136

Sørensen, Bent. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. San Diego: Academic Press, 2000, 911 pp. ISBN 0-12-656152-4.

Aubrecht, Gordon J. Energy, Second Edition. NJ: Upper Saddle River, Prentice-Hall, Inc., 668 pp., 1995. 0-02-304601-5. TJ163.2.A88.

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References: Websites, etc.

awea-windnet@yahoogroups.com. Wind Energy elistawea-wind-home@yahoogroups.com. Wind energy home powersite elistgeothermal.marin.org/ on geothermal energymailto:energyresources@egroups.com rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-01m.html PNNL wind energy

map of CONUS windenergyexperimenter@yahoogroups.com. Elist for wind energy experimenters

www.dieoff.org. Site devoted to the decline of energy and effects upon population

www.ferc.gov/ Federal Energy Regulatory Commissionwww.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/otec_hi.html#anchor349152 on OTEC systemstelosnet.com/wind/20th.htmlwww.google.com/search?q=%22renewable+energy+course%22solstice.crest.org/dataweb.usbr.gov/html/powerplant_selection.htmlhttp://cr.middlebury.edu/es/altenergylife/70's.htmhttp://www.barcelonaenergia.com/eng/observatory/bcnenergy3.htm

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