WilliamThomson4/27/2015
FreeportMcMoRan(FCX)
InvestmentThesisRecommendedinvestorsbuyFreeportMcMoRan shareswithatargetpriceof$30;anupsideof44%relativetocurrentpricing. ThemarkethasseverelypenalizedFCXforthe2012/2013mergerwithPlainsExploration(PXP)andMcMoRan Energy(MMR)andthesubsequentfallincommoditypriceshasoccurredinthemiddleofacompanywideinvestmentcycle,exacerbatingthemarketperceptionofthecompanyasoverextended.
Theminingoperationsareworth$18.62ashareinourbearcase(coppertradingat$2.15lbin2015)andincludesallminingandcorporatedebt,minimizingdownside.
Managementshistoryofcapitalallocationdisciplineandeffectivemonetizationofdifficultassetsisbeingignoredbythemarket.AsisthesignificantopportunityembeddedintheOil/NatGas assets.
AtcurrentpricesFCXpresentsinvestorswithacompellingriskrewardprofileasaresultoftheimprovingFCF,worldclassmanagementandhighqualitydevelopedandexploratoryassetsinbothMiningandOil/NatGas.
Atatimewheneveryoneislookingforvalueinenergy,FCXisanopportunitytobuythelargestpubliclytradedcopperminerintheworld(atthevalueoftheminingassets)andsecureanoptiononhighvalueOil/NatGas assets.
2
SharePriceasof: 4/24/2015 $20.82Sharesoutstanding(mm) 1,039EquityMarketCap(mm) $21,632Add:Debt(mm) $20,312Less:Cash(mm) $549Add:MinorityInterest $4,993TotalEnterpriseValue $46,388
52WeekRange 39.32 16.43DividendYield 1.0%AverageDailyVolume(mm) 13.14
2015E 2016E 2017EEV/EBIT 10.1 7.7 6.0P/E 32.3 9.8 6.4P/CFPS 4.3 3.1 2.4
CurrentCapitalization
TradingStatitics
SummaryValuation
NearTermCatalysts Grasberg:ConclusionofContractofWork(COW)negotiationswithGovernmentofIndonesia. SecuringAdditionalFundingforOil/NatGasProjects:JVPartnersforGulfofMexico(GOM)Oil/NatGasprojectswillhelprampupproductionandleadtoselfsustainingOil/NatGasOperationswithgrowingFCFsoonerthancurrentselffundingplan.
PartialCatalyst(goodforincrementalimprovementoffinancials) USDollarAppreciation:Unlikemostminingfirms,FCXderivesnearly50%ofrevenuefromsalestoUScustomers,andassucharemoreinsultedfromthenegativeimpactofarisingUSdollarthanmostminers,a10%strengtheningoftheUSDollarvstheChileanPeso,IndonesianRupiad,AustralianDollar,theEuroorthePeruvianSolequatestoacostbenefitof$145millioninEBITDAor$100millioninoperatingcashflow.FCXprovidesmorethan40%ofdownstreamcopperintheUSmarket.
PartialCatalyst EconomicInstability: FlighttoGoldresultingfromEconomicInstability(every$50increaseinthepriceofgoldadds$100millioninEBITDAand$60millioninoperatingcashflow).
CommodityPrices:Contrarytocurrentsupplysurplusforecasts,copperdemandwilllikelyexceedsupplythisyearduetolowinvestmentandmineclosuresduetoweatherandpolitics
MediumtoLongTermCatalysts OilPrices:AtcurrentpricesFCXisoneofthebestoptionsonoilpriceappreciationavailableinthemarket.FCXistheworldsleadingcopperminertradingatthefairvalueofthecompanysminingassetsbutitalsohassignificantoilassets,whicharecurrentlyvaluedatpenniesonthedollar.
InboardLowerTertiary/Cretaceous:TheInboardLowerTertiary/CretaceousNaturalGas(ILTC)playholdsnaturalgasassetsinexcessof1Tcf.FCXisaleadingplayerindevelopmentofthetrend.ThepotentialofILTCtrendisanexampleofwhyanynegativeimpactoffuturefundingdecisionsfortheOil/NatGasassetswilllikelybeovershadowedbyastutecapitalallocationdecisions.
ContinuedSlowDevelopmentofCopperAssets:Miningfirmshavedelayedbrownfieldinvestmentsandnewminediscoveriesarefewandfarbetween,withonlytwosignificantfindssince1988.TheoutlookforcopperintheLTisoneofconstrainedsupply.
Catalysts
3
RecommendedinvestorsbuyFreeportMcMoRan shareswithaneartermtargetpriceof$30ashareandathreetofiveyearpricetargetrangeof$55to$60ashare.
Reserves:CU 29.0bn lbs,AU 28.2mmozsSales:CU 960mmlbs,AU 1.3mmozs
FCXisthelargestpublicallytradedcopperminerintheworldwithsignificantOil/GasNat,Gold,CobaltandMolybdenumassetsandrecentlyacquiredOil/NatGasassets.
ManagementhasgrowntheTangibleBookValuePerShareataCAGRof14.83%forthelast25Years. Currentmanagementhasbeeninplaceformorethanadecade.
CompanyOverviewHighQualityAssetsSpreadAcrossMultipleAttractiveIndustries
FreeportMcMoRan
PTFreeportIndonesia(90.94%)
FCXMining FCXOil&Gas
NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
GulfofMexico
California
Haynesville/Madden/Other
Africa
Reserves:CU 35.6bn lbs,MO 2.4bn lbsSales:CU 1.9bn lbs,MO 2.4bn ozs
Reserves:CU 31.8bn lbs,MO 0.7bn lbsSales:CU 0.9bn lbs
Sales(MBOEperday):2014 39,2013 39 Reserves(MMBOE):PD 89,PUD 79
Sales(MBOEperday):2014 73,2013 72 Reserves(MMBOE):PD 89,PUD 79
Sales(MBOEperday):2014 44,2013 70 Reserves(MMBOE):PD 39,PUD 30
Reserves:CU 7.1bn lbs,MO 0.85bn lbsSales:CU 445mmlbs,CO32mmlbs
Reserves Oil(MMBbls) NatGas(Bcf) Total(MMBOE)Total Proved 288 610 390Total Probable 199 278 245
487 888 635
4
FY2014Review NetLossattributabletocommonstocktotaled$1.3billion,$1.26ashare.NormalizedNetIncomeattributableto
commonstocktotaled$2.0billion,$1.96ashare. NormalizedNetIncomeexcludes$1.7billiongoodwillimpairmentandcertainitemsrelatedtothesaleof
Candelaria andOjosdelSaladoCopperMine. NormalizedNetIncomeexcludes$2.3billioninassetwritedownsrelatedtothecarryingvalueofoilandgas
proprieties. Operationalhighlightsinclude:PositiveexplorationresultsandwelltestsforGulfofMexico(GOM)assets,
completedsaleof80%ownershipinterestinCandelaria andOjosDelSaladocopperminefor$1.8billionincashandcompletionofMorenciMillExpansionprojectinMay2014.
FirstQuarter2015Results Netlossattributabletocommonstocktotal$2.5billion,$2.38ashare.NormalizedNetLossattributabletocommon
stocktotaled$60million,$0.06ashare. NormalizedNetLossexcludes$2.4billioninassetwritedownsforreductiontothecarryingvalueofoiland
gasproperties. Operationalhighlightsinclude:10%increaseinthevolumeofcoppersoldvs.1Q2014,initialstartofcommercial
productionatLuciusGOMfacility(25%FMO&Gworkinginterest)andHighlandernaturalgaswell.
CompanyOverviewReviewofFY2014andFirstQuarter2015Results
5
FinancialSummary QtoQ($inmillions,exceptpersharedata) FY2012 FY2013 4Q2014 FY2014 1Q2015 Change LTMRevenue $18,010 $20,921 $5,235 $21,438 $4,153 ($1,082) $20,606NetEarnings/(Loss) 3,041 2,658 (2,851) (1,308) (2,474) 377 (4,262)Earnings/(LossperDilutedShare) 3.20 2.65 (2.74) (1.26) (2.38) 0.36 (4.13)NormalizedEBITfromContinuingOps 5,755 5,468 1,176 4,834 102 (1,074) 3,825CashFlowfromOperations 3,774 6,139 1,118 5,631 717 (401) 5,147CapEx 3,494 5,286 1,805 8,641 1,867 62 8,896
ValuationConsiderations
AnOilProblemWhatifFCXwasjustthelargestpublicallytradedCopperminerintheworld?
FCXistwobusinesses:anexploratoryOil/NatGascompanyandaCopperfocusedminer.
Atthecurrenttime,theOil/NatGas businessandtheperceptionofthebalancesheetasweakareananchoronthestockprice.
AbsenttheOil/NatGas assetsbutincludingallcompanydebt(includingthatassociatedwithOil/Gasoperations)FCXminingassetsareworthanywherefrom$16.51ashareto$49.12ashare.
FCXminingassetswillcontinuetoappreciateinvalueandgeneraterichfutureFCFasmanagementcontinuestoinvestinworldclassassetsaheadofcoppershortageduetodecliningoregradesandlimitednewminescomingonline.
(1)BasedonaDCFModeloftheFCXMiningOperations,seepage31forbasecasemodelandaBullandBearScenariocommodity pricing,seeAppendixA,page37.
(1)
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
Copper FCX WTI
IndexLTMCopper,WTIandFCX
FCXDerived71%ofRevenuefromCopperand80%ofNormalizedEBIT
fromMiningin2014
IntheLTMCopperhastradeddown10%while,FCXandWTIhavetradeddown37%and44%,thestocknowcorrelatesbetter
withOilthenCopper
7
AnOilOptionTheinclusionofnewOilandNaturalGasAssetsandthefallinthepriceofOilhasconfusedInvestorsaboutthevalueproposition.
ThemarketiscurrentlyvaluingFCXOil/NatGasassetsatclosetonothing.
AsastandaloneentitythenormalizedearningsfortheOil/NatGasbusinessimplyavaluationof$2.15ashareviaEBITMultipleDCFwith8.0xmultiple,andanetassetvalueof$8.85ashareviaaPerpetuityGrowthDCFwitha2.5%growthrate,bothataconservative$55oilandproductiongrowthassumptions.
TheportfolioofOil/NatGasassetsarerichinpossibilityandlocatedinareasoftheworldinwhichmanagementhassignificantdevelopmentexperience.FCX,withitsvaluableminingassets,offersinvestorsoneofthebestoptionsonfutureOil/NatGaspriceappreciation.
(1)
KeyTakeAway:Ifcommoditypricesremainweakthrough2019,andmanagementpoorlyexecutesOil/NatGasassetdevelopment,FCXhasanintrinsicvaluefloorof$17and$20ashare
8
FY2014A FY2015E FY2016EAnadarko 15.1x Loss 39.9xApache 8.0x Loss 30.0xHess 11.7x Loss 174.8xNobleEnergy 15.4x 46.0x 32.5xOccidental 8.9x 55.9x 27.5xMarathon 8.5x Loss 114.3xFreeportMcMoRan 10.8x 10.1x 7.7x
TEV/EBIT
ComparedtoOil/NatGascompanieswithsimilarreserveprofiles,FCXtradedataslightdiscountin2014andlookstotradeatasignificantdiscountgoingforward.
MiningOperations
MiningOperationalOverview GivenFCXMiningOperations2014EBITof
approximately$3.87bnFCXEVistradingat11.8xtheMiningOperationsLTMEBITvsminingpeerstradingat9.46x,aslightpremiuminadepressedsector.
FCXMiningassetshaveaverageROAof11.7%overthelastfiveyearsvsminingpeerswhohaveaveraged9.4%.
2015miningCapExfocusedonbrownfieldminingprojectsthatoffersuperiorriskadjustedreturns.
KeyRisks:o OperationalRisks Executionrisk
relatedtonewCapExo GeopoliticalRisk Indonesiaandthe
DemocraticRepublicofCongoo CommodityPriceRisk
KeyTakeAway:FCXminingassetsareworldclassandcapableofgeneratingindustryleadingreturns. 10
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000
FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019
MiningEBITbyGeographicSegment
NorthAmerica SouthAmerica Africa Indonesia
70.18%
8.40%
5.91%
1.67% 13.84%
2014MiningRevenuebySource
Copper Gold Molybenum Cobalt Refining&Smelting
MiningCapEx inFocus
KeyTakeAway:MiningCapExisfocusedonincrementalimprovementandexpansionofexistingassets,generatinghigherreturnswithlowerriskandsuperiorFCF.
Managementcontinuestoinvestinhighqualityprojectsregardlessofthecommoditycycle.
MiningCapExisfocusedongeneratinghigherriskadjustedreturnsthroughbrownfieldinvestmentsinmineswithlonglivesandhighoregrades.
MiningCapExFocusedonmineswithsuperiorcoppergradesvs.industryaverageof0.5%forgreenfieldprojects:o CerroVerde $700mn(OreGrade:0.39%)o Grasberg$1.5bn(OreGrade:1.17%)o Tenke $225mn(OreGrade:3.56%)
FocusonefficiencyandcostwillproducestrongFCFgrowthincomingyears,evenatlowercommodityprices.
11
IndustryProductionCostbyOreGrade
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
FY2015P FY2016P FY2017P FY2018P FY2019P
LeveredFCFProjections
BearLFCF BaseLFCF BullLFCF SpotLFCF
Refining15%
Freight5%
Mining80%
FCXanditsMiningPeersFCXhassomeofthelowestallinsustainingcashcostsinthecopperminingindustry.
12
AmongthemajorcopperproducersFCXhassomeofthelowestcostminesandlowestaverageallinsustainingcashcostsintheindustry(under$2/lb).Thisfacthelpsensurecopperproductionprofitabilitycancontinueevenduringacopperpricedecline.
Q12015FCXmaintaineditsindustryleadingcombinationofproductionvolumeandcostminimization,achievinganetcashcostperpoundofcopperof$1.64
Miningaccountsforthemostsignificantcostintheindustry(accountingfor80%ofcosts), whichmakesrecentFCXinvestmentsinimprovedmineproductionandefficiencyathighoregrademinesallthemoreimportant.
CapExinvestmentsinCerroVerde,Morencia,TenkeandGrasbergwilllikelylowerFCXallinsustainingcashcostsfurther.ForwardlookingmanagementguidancefromQ12015isfor$1.53apound.ThelowestcostmineintheFCXPortfolio,Grasbergproducesataround$0.50apound.
AllinSustainingCashCostsbyProducer CostsbySource
RiskstoMiningOperationValueMiningOperationsatFCXareexposedtoseveralimportantrisksbesidescommodityprices.
GrasbergMineRisks Tenke:Currentgovernmentisseekingtoimprovetheattractivenessofminingsectorwithrevisiontoregulationsscheduledforearly2015.Revisionsappearslatedtoimproveregulatoryenvironmentbutmayalsoincreasetaxationandroyalties.
UnderstandingPolRisk:PoliticalriskexistsforFCXateverymineitowns,andUSminesarenoexception.Theriskexistsintherelationshipbetweencompanyandgovernment,notthecountryitselfthough.EmergingMarketriskislikelyoverstated,anddevelopedworldrisklikelygoesunrecognized.
OperatingRisks:AllfuturedevelopmentatGrasbergisunderground,andcopperwillbeminedviaBlockCaving.FCXhasoutlinedanaggressivetimelineforrampup(onaverage50%quickerthanmostblockcaveminingtimelines).
PoliticalRisks:Negotiationswithrecentlyelected(July2014)Gov.ofIndonesiaareinprocess,withmanagementpositiveaboutconclusionofdiscussionsthisyear.AccordingtoQ12015callmostmajorpointshavebeenworkedout,suchasnewroyaltiesandtaxes.Afewissuesremaintobefinalized,suchastimelinefordivestitureofbetween10%and20%ofFMIndonesiaintheIndonesianStockMarket,andcontinuationofoperationspost2021.
TheSmelter:AspartofthenegotiationsFCXhasagreedtoexpandcapacityatitsexistingsmelter.Expenseswillnotbeginuntilpost2016period,expectedcost(sharedwithsmelterpartners)of$2billion.
Geopolitical/PoliticalRisk
OperationalRisks Tenke:Powersupplyandqualityofworkforce. CerroVerde:Watersupply.
13
MiningOperationValuationTheimpactofrecentmetalpriceerosioniscompensatedforwithtimelyproductiongrowtharisingfromforwardlookinginvestmentsbymanagementinexistingassets.
PositiveRiskstoValuation FCXiscurrentlytradingatornearthevalueoftheminingbusinessinthebearcase,butat10yearcommoditycyclelow($1.26copper),notevenlowcostFCXassetsareprofitable.
OngoingGeopoliticalRisks. FailuretoproperlyexecuterampupofproductionfromnewCapEx.
Reboundincommodityprices. ConclusionofGrasbergCOW ConclusionofCapExandrampupofnewinvestmentstofullproduction.
Addedincrementalgainsfromnonecoreminingassets:Example CobaltChemicalRefinerypurchasedin2013,Molybdenum,Gold,Silver.
NegativeRiskstoValuation
14
2013A 2014A 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 2019PRevenue $18,305 $16,728 $15,872 $19,693 $22,015 $19,455 $22,132EBITMargin 32.3% 26.8% 24.6% 26.7% 27.8% 27.3% 28.2%
EBIT 5,909.2 4,478.8 3,908.4 5,260.5 6,111.4 5,313.8 6,236.0EBITDA 6,334 5,445 5,517 7,058 7,995 6,961 7,952NOPAT 3,841 2,911 2,540 3,419 3,972 3,454 4,053ETR 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
NetIncome 3,089 2,323 2,151 3,030 3,583 3,065 3,664EPS $2.97 $2.24 $2.07 $2.92 $3.45 $2.95 $3.53
FairValue Bear Base BullTEV/EBITMultiple(NTM) 12.2x 11.8x 11.3x Base SpotEVofSegment 35,637 46,096 64,297 Copper $2.5 $2.7EquityValue 19,235 29,694 47,895 Gold $1,200.0 $1,175.0ValuePerShare $18.51 $28.58 $46.10 Molybdnum $57.0 $57.2
NAVofSegment(DCF@8%) 20,754.2 33,615.3 53,596.3 Cobalt $10.0 $7.7PerShare $19.98 $32.35 $51.58
Mining Operation Financials
OilandNaturalGas
80%of2015Oil/NatGas CapEx directedtothehighestreturnGOMopportunities. FCXassetshaveanestimatedfindinganddevelopmentcostof$26/BOEoverthenext5years. Managementforecaststhatby2025ownedacreagecouldbeproducingasmuchas600MBOE/dayvs.2015E
of143MBOE/day withexpectedallincostsof$46abarrel.
1Q2015Highlights ThreeprojectscommencedproductioninQ12015totaling25MBOEperdaybytheendofMarch. $100millioninnetoilhedgingrealizationsinQ12015. 86%ofremaining2015oilproductionishedged,providingasmuchas$13/bbl ofpremium. CurrentDeepwaterGOMacreagehas145potentialprojectswithIRRsgreaterthan20%atcurrentforward
strippricing.
AnExcellentOptiononOilFCXhasproducingreservesinCaliforniaandHaynesville,premierDeepWaterGOMproducing/exploratoryassets,andpotentiallygamechangingacreageintheInboardLowerTertiary/Cretaceousnaturalgastrend.
2014Sales 56.8MMBOE ProvedReserves:ByRegionandCommodity(6:1Ratio)
GoM47%
California25%
EagleFord15%
Other13%
Oil71%
NGLs3%
Gas26%
GoM43%
California39%
Haynesville/Other18%
16
GulfofMexicoAssetsFCXhasseveralprojectsnearingproduction,includingseveraltiebackopportunitieswhichoffershorterdevelopmentcyclesandhigherIRRthangreenfieldfinds. TheUSGOMremainsoneofthemostattractiveplacestobeintheupstreamworld,withanestimated5BN
BOEdiscoveredinthelastfewyears.43%ofFCXProvedReservesareintheGOM. DespitetechnologicalchallengesassociatedwithDeepwaterGOM,theampleaccesstounderutilizedexisting
infrastructure(bothpipelinesandrigs)andlowtaxtakehelpscompensateforrelativelyhighdevelopmentcosts.
In201580%ofFCXOil/NatGas CapEx isdirectedtowardsthehighestreturnGOMopportunities. FocusondevelopmentofCopper,HolsteinDeep,Dorado,KOQVandKingtiebackopportunities,allofwhich
requirelowerCapEx investments,shorterdevelopmentcycles,andofferfastermonetizationofresourcesthangreenfielddevelopmentsastheyleverageexistinginfrastructure.
Expected1st productionfromHolsteinDeepandCoppertiebacksin2016. GOMtiebackoffermuchhigherreturns(43%averageIRR)thanlargergreenfield(25%IRR)projectsas
theyleverageexistinginfrastructure. FCXGOMAcreageincludes145potentialprojectswithIRRsgreaterthan20%atcurrentfuturesstrip
pricing.17
Source:CreditSuisse,"USGulfofMexico:AllYouNeedtoKnowabouttheGOM"
29.50%25.50% 23.00% 22.60% 21.00% 18.80%
15.70% 15.40% 14.30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Brazil GOM Other Angola Nigeria Norway Russia CanadianOilSands
AustralianLNG
WeightedProjectIRRbyRegion
DeepwaterGOMProjects
18
UtilizationCapacity(BOPD)
Capacity(MCFD)
RegionFirst
ProductionDevelopmentPlan EstimatedReserves
Operator/WorkingInterest
Marlin 40% 60,000 235,000 MississippiCanyon 2000FMO&GOperated
with100%WI
HornMtn 12% 75,000 72,000 MississippiCanyon 2002FMO&GOperated
with100%WI
Holstein 12% 113,500 142,300 GreenCanyon 2004 7Wells(20142016)Opportuntiesforupto75MBOEperdayby2020
FMO&GOperatedwith100%WI
Lucius 80,000 450,000 KeathleyCanyon 4Q20146WellDevelopment
Program295MMBOE
FMO&G25.1%WIAnadarkoOperated
PowerNap MississippiCanyon PositiveDrillingResults 54MMBOEFMO&G50%WIShellOperated
Vito MississippiCanyon 300MMBOEFMO&G50%WIShellOperated
Heidelberg 80,000 GreenCanyon 2016 6WellInitialProgram 300MMBOEFMO&G12.5%WIAnadarkoOperated
Copper GreenCanyon 2016 1WellBeingDrilled 35MMBOEFMO&GOperated
with100%WI
HolsteinDeep GreenCanyon 2016 9ProposedWellsFMO&GOperated
with100%WI
Dorado MarlinTieback MississippiCanyon1stProduction
AchievedinMarchFMO&GOperated
with100%WI
KOQVHornMtnTieback
MississippiCanyonDevelopmentDrilling
2H2015FMO&GOperated
with100%WI
King MarlinTieback MississippiCanyonCompletionOperations
UnderwayFMO&GOperated
with100%WI
DeepSleepShellPreparingtostart
drillingFMO&G50.0%WIShell
Operated
InboardLowerTertiary/Cretaceous
HighlanderSouthLouisiana 2015
1stProductionAchievedinQ12015
FMO&G72.0%WI
FarthestGateWestDrillingCommenced
Oct2014Source:CompanyFilings,CreditSuisseEstimates,BankofAmericaEstimates
OperatingAssets
DevelopmentAssets
TiebackOpportunities
InboardLowerTertiary/CretaceousIndustryleadingpositioninthedevelopingnaturalgasplay.
19
FCXbegancommercialproductionatitsHighlanderdiscoverylocatedonshoreinSouthLouisianaintheInboardLowerTertiary/Cretaceoustrendinthe1st Qtr 2015.Theproductiontestindicatedaflowrateofapproximately75MMcf/d.
UltraDeepWells(whichrunasdeepat30,000feet)aresignificanttechnologicalchallengeswithreservoirtemperaturesexceeding440degreesandbottomholepressureashighas27,000PSI(4xthepressureittakestolaunchthespaceshuttle).
TheUltraDeepInboardLowerTertiary/CretaceoustrendliesbelowthesaltweldthatcutsthroughtheGulfCoastsedimentlayers.ThusfarmostGOMOil/NatGas hasbeenfoundinreservesabovethesaltweld.
ThetrendintheLowerTertiary/Cretaceouslayerarepartofthesamegeologicalstructuresthathavebeensoprofitableforoilcompaniesexceptthattheyhavebeenisolatedandbisectedbythesaltweld.
JamesMoffett,ChairmanoftheBoardofFCXbelievesthatthatInboardLowerTertiary/Cretaceoustrendholdsreservesinexcessof1TcfofNaturalGas.ThepotentialoftheLowerTertiary/CretaceousacreagethatFCXhastitletoisnotyetrepresentedonthebalancesheetasreserves.
TheFundingQuestion
20
FCXOilandNatGas assetsofferthepotentialofrichrewardsforthecompanyandinvestorsregardlessofadditionalfunding,butadditionalfundingwillhelprampupproductionquicker. ThefocusontiebackopportunitiesintheGOMandonsustainingproductioninallotheroilfieldswill
generatecashflowtohelpdevelopprojectsinthelongterm,atthemomentFCXissearchingforadditionaloutsidefunding(JVpartners)whichcanrampupthespeedatwhichassetsaredeveloped.
Existing,validatedGOMacreageisproducing130,000to140,000MBOE/Day,withoutadditionalfundingmanagementprojectsthatnumbercouldreach173MBOE/Dayby2017,withadditionalfundingthatnumbercouldbe217MBOE/Dayby2017.
$2.8
$2.8
$2.9
$2.9
$3.0
0
50
100
150
200
2015e 2016e 2017e
C
a
p
E
x
P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
CurrentProductionandCapExPlan
Production(MBOE/Day) CapEx($inBil)
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
2015e 2016e 2017e
C
a
p
E
x
P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
WithAdditionalFunding
Production(MBOE/Day) CapEx($inBil)
$0.0$0.5$1.0$1.5$2.0$2.5$3.0$3.5
2015e 2016e 2017e
AditionalFundingEBITDA($inbil)
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
2015e 2016e 2017e
CurrentFundingEBITDA($inbil)
(1)
(1)SeeAppendixB:PossiblePEPartners.
KeyTakeAway:Buyagreatcopperminerandgetagreatoptiononreboundingoilprices.
Oil/NatGasoperationsdonotlooktoreachpositiveleveredFCFuntil2018underBaseCaseCommoditypricingandconservativeproductiongrowthassumptions.InbasecaseOil/NatGasoperationslooktotradeatasignificantdiscounttoNetAssetValuecalculatedviaDCFwithadiscountrateof8%.
Oil/NatGas OperationValuationThedeclineinthepriceofoilhasnegativelyimpactedneartermvalueofFCXassets,buthedgeswillhelpblunt2015impact.Longtermpotentialisveryreal,andsellingatadiscount.
PositiveSurprisestoValuation Continuederosioninthepriceofoil. FallinOilDemand. Failuretofindadditionalfundingwillslowdevelopment.
Reboundinoilprices. SecuringJVPartnersforadditionalfunding. SignificantreservesnotyetaddedtoBalancesheet.
NegativeRiskstoValuation
21
2013A 2014A 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 2019PRevenue $2,616 $4,710 $3,017 $3,061 $3,694 $4,834 $4,908EBITMargin 69.3% 69.3% 69.3% 69.3% 69.3% 69.3% 69.3%
EBIT 450 975 572 580 700 916 930EBITDA 1,814 3,266 2,092 2,122 2,562 3,352 3,403NOPAT 293 634 372 377 455 595 605ETR 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
NetIncome 112 393 201 206 284 425 434EPS $0.11 $0.38 $0.19 $0.20 $0.27 $0.41 $0.42
FairValue Bear Base BullTEV/EBITMultiple(NTM) 1.8x 5.0x 8.1x Base SpotEVofSegment 1,733 4,845 7,880 WTI $55.0 $57.2EquityValue 835 2,277 5,312 NatGas $3.3 $2.6ValuePerShare $0.80 $2.19 $5.11
NAVofSegment(DCF@8%) (531.6) 9,174.6 19,765.2PerShare ($0.51) $8.83 $19.02
Oil/NatGasFinancials
CapitalStructure
AmpleLiquiditytoAddressNearTermChallenges:FCXhas$5.3billioninuntappedcreditlinesandimprovingcashflow.
ActiveResponsebyManagementtoMarketConditions:ManagementhasactivelyrespondedtoshiftsincommoditypricesbystrategicallyprioritizingMiningCapExtoincreasevolumeandreducecost,andfocusedOil/NatGasCapExonprojectswithneartermreturns.CapExreductionsof$1.2and$1.7billionin2015and2016.
LeveragePastExperience:FCXmanagementhasbeguntoexplore3rd partydevelopmentfundingarrangementswhichithasemployedsuccessfullyinthepastinbothminingandOil/NatGas.FCXmanagementalwayslookstoinvestinqualityprojectsregardlessofcommoditycycleandcurrentprofitability.
Challenges,ButNoProblemsManagementfocusedonstrengtheningbalancesheetwithoutimperilinglongtermvalue.
23
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019
ForwardLookingFCXLiquidityMap
DebtMaturities Interest Dividends CapEx Exploration/DrillingCosts CFO CFO+Cash CFO+Cash+UndrawnRevolvers
ManagementTrackRecord
KeyManagement
25
JamesMoffettisChairmenofFCX,PresidentofPRFreeportIndonesiaandleadsexplorationprogramsforFCX.Hehasworkedforthecompanyinsomecapacitysince1964.HeservedastheChairmanofMcMoRanExplorationfrom1984to2007andwasthedrivingforcebehindthedevelopmentofGrasbergmineinIndonesia.Between1984and2003Mr.MoffettwastheChairmanandCEOofFCX.WhenaskedtocommentonMr.MoffettstrackrecordintheE&PbusinesslegendaryoilinvestorT.BoonePickenscommentedthat:Youjudgeatrapperbyhispelts,andoldJimBobsgotalotofpelts.
RichardAdkersonhasservedasCEOofFCXsince2003andhasworkedwiththecompanyinvariousrolesofincreasingresponsibilitysince1980.Mr.AdkersonandMr.Moffetthavealonghistorytogetherthatdatesbacktothe1970s.Mr.AdkersonservedasPresidentofFCXunderMr.MoffettduringhistenorasCEO.Mr.AdkersonhasalsoservedinvariousseniormanagementpositionswithPTFreeportIndonesiaandoversawthemergerofFCXwithPhelpsDodge,creatingthelargestpublicallytradedcoppercompanyintheworld.
JamesFloresistheViceChairmanoftheBoardandPresident/CEOofFreeportMcMoRanOilandGas.PriortojoiningFCX,Mr.FloreswastheCEOofPlainsExplorationandProductionsincethecompanysinception.HehasworkedinOilandGasforover25yearsservingastheCEOoffourdifferentpublicallytradedoilandgasE&Psduringhiscareer.
FollowingthemergerwithPlainsExplorationandMcMoRanExploration,managementreworkedcorporategovernanceandcompensationincentivestobetteraligninterestswiththoseofshareholders.Highlightsinclude:o Additionoffournewindependentdirectorstotheboard.o Compensationcommitteestaffedwithindependentdirectorsonly.o Basesalaryofthreekeydirectorsreducedto$1.25millionwithtotalAnnualIncentivecappedat$7.5million.o Additionalcompensationinexcessofbasesalarydrivenbyoperatingcashflownetofworkingcap(50%),copperand
oilequivalentproductionvolumes(25%)withtheremaindertiedtoSafetyandEnvironmentalvariables. KeycompensationdriversalignreasonablywellwithoperatingaccomplishmentsnecessaryforLTgrowthinshareholder
value.
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
6000
4000
2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
CapEx UnleveredFCF NetDebt TBVPerShare ROA
AnEnviableTrackRecord
KeyTakeAway:FCXhastheresourcestomanagebalancesheetconcernsinacommoditydowncycleandahistoryofbuildingassetsthroughcommoditycycletroughstotake
advantageofcyclepeaks.
Duringtheperiodfrom1990to2000FCXfocusedonthedevelopmentoftwoworldclassassetsGrasbergandtheMainPasssulfuroilgasdeposit.Duringtheperiodmanagementdevelopedbothprojectsdespiteunrivaledtechnicalchallenges,depressedcopperprices(averaging$0.92perlb)andacapitalstructurethatwas53%debt.
From2000to2006FCXmanagementnavigatedcopperpricevolatility($1.25to$4.62),theendofSuhartoregimeinIndonesia,andclosureofMainPass.FCXpaiddowndebtandpositionedthemselvestosuccessfullybuyPhelpsDodgein2007,whichquicklyprovedasmartinvestment.
ManagementTrackRecord
FocusonGrasbergandMainPass BenefitsofLTCapExFocusAccrue
CyclerepeatedwithpurchaseofPhelpsDodge
26
FCXCaseStudy Althoughmostinvestorsdontknowit,FCXwasoriginallyaspinofffromFreeportMcMoRanInc,asFreeportMcMoRan CopperandGoldinordertoseparateminingassetsfromsulfur&fertilizerbusinessesandtosecureadditionalcapitaltodevelopGrasbarg andMainPassprojects.
ThespinoffwastheideaofcurrentChairmenoftheBoardJamesMoffett,andremained73%controlledbyFreeportMcMoRanInc.(liketheproposedFMOilandGasspinoff).
ThespinoffwasmajoritycontrolledbyFreeportMcMoRanInc.untilitbecamemoresuccessfulthantheparentandwasfullyspunoffin1995.
In2014FreeportMcMoRanCopperandGoldcompletedthetransition,takingthenameofitsformerparent,FreeportMcMoRanInc.
M&AHistory
27
ThepurchaseofPlainsEnergywaswidelycriticized(withscepticsclaimingvictoryinthewakeofthe1stQtr2015statementofapossiblepartialIPOofapercentageofFMO&G)buthindsightisalways20/20.
Anyfocusontherightorwrongofthemergerismisplaced,themoneyhasbeenspentandthecostissunk,allthatmattersisthepathforwardandhowFCXmanagementintendstomonetizetheassetsforthebenefitofshareholdersinthefuture,whichhistorysuggeststheyarecapableof.
Successfulmanagementdoesnotalwaysmaketherightdecisions,buttheyalwaysmaketheirdecisionright.
CaseStudy:1988FCXCaseStudyPhelpsDodgeCaseStudy $26billionacquisitionin2007 Transformationaltransaction,bothassetandgeographicdiversification
Reserveadditions:+46billionlbs Cu Effectivelymanagedthrough2008/2009Economiccrisis
ValuationOverview(USDMM)CashOfferperShare 126.46PremiumPerShareOffer(1Day) 33.1%Premium(30Days) 28.0%ImpliedEquityValue 25,604.2NetDebt -3,164.5ImpliedEnterpriseValue 23,867.0LTMEBITDA 3,922.5ImpliedEV/EBITDA 6.1xNetIncome 1,882.5ImpliedEquityValue/NetInc 13.6xTotalDebt/EBITDA 0.2xNetDebt/EBITDA -0.8x
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
AtTimeofPDAcquisistioninMarch2007
Dec07 12/31/2012
RapidDeleveraging($inbns)
Debt ConsolidatedCash
CommodityPrices
BearArgument:IncreasedproductionisilladvisedasChina(theworldslargestcopperconsumer)shiftstoaconsumerdriveneconomy,threateningdemand.Paincurrentlyfeltbyironoreminersisjustaroundthecornerforcopperproducers.
Counter:Thecomparisondemonstratesalackofunderstandingofthedifferencesbetweenminingcopperandironore.Copperismorecomplicatedthanironore(by2018morecopperwillbeminedfromundergroundminesthanopenpit)butrequiresmorevolumethangoldordiamonds.
Counter:Supplyisconstrainedinthelongterm(evenwithdecreasedChinademand)bythetimenecessarytobringacomplexmineonlineandbythelackofeconomicdiscoveriesofuntappedresources.Onlytwonewsignificantcopperdiscoverieshavebeenmadebytheminingindustrysincethe1988FCXdiscoveryofGrasberginIndonesia.
Counter:Thesupplysituationintheshorttermismoreconstrainedthanbelieved,asminers(forexampleAngloAmericanandTeckResources)haveannouncedpostponementofinvestmentsneededtoincreaseproductionatexistingmines.Thousandsoftonsof2015productionhavealsobeenlostduetofloodsintheAtacamaDesertinChileearlierthisyear.
FCXManagementThinkingonCopper
KeyTakeAway:Ifcopperdemandgrowsat2.5%ayearoverthenexttenyears,theindustrywillneedtoexpandby10millionmetrictons,orbyover50%ofitsglobalinstalledcapacitytomeetthatrateandaccountfordepletionatagingmines.
ProductionVolume
TechnicalMiningComplication
Gold Diamonds
IronOre Coal Copper
HighlyTechnicalMining InfrastructureChallenge
HighVolumesLowVolumes
(1)Source:Bloomberg FreeportBetsCoppersNoOilWithGrowthtoGrabTopSpot
(1)
FCXwillcontinuetoclosetheproductiongapbetweenitselfandthelargestcopperminerintheworld(Codelco)asaresultofcontinuedexpansionofexistingmines.
29
CommodityPrices/FCXSensitivities
30
FCXSensitivity CommodityMarketDrivers Positive(+),Negative()orUnknownRisk(?)toCommodityPrice
DemandgrowthinChina(?):Chinademandhasbeenmixed,economicslowdowncouldleadtodecreaseddemand,butincreasedfocusonpowersectorcouldfillthegap.Additionally,Chinareexportsfinishedproductswithcopper.
GlobalDemand(USandEUMarketsstillimportant
():ThusfarEUrecoveryhasbeenweakandUSrecoveryismixedwithsignificantquestionsaboutthefalloutofexperimentalfiscalpolicybycentralbanks
ChinahasbeendestockingCopperthroughmostof2014,restockingsuppliesmayliftimports
(+):StrongrestockingthroughthesupplychainaccordingtoWallStreetBanks
MineSupplyvs.GlobalDemand (+):Longtermsupplydeficitandslowstartto2015production
EmergingMarket(EM)Demand (+):EMDemand,especiallyChinaandIndiaremainsstrongConcernsoverassetpricesandequitymarketcorrection
(+):Globalconcernsaboutthenatureofeconomicrecoveriespost2008remain.Hotmarketsstokefearsaboutcorrection.
InterestRates (?):ExperimentalFiscalPolicy.Whoknowshowitends?
SteelProduction():DemandforMolyisheavilytiedtosteel,demandfromsteelproducingcountrieslikleylowerin2015.
MineSupply(?):Increasedsecondarysupplyfromcopperminesinrecentyearswithlowerprimarymolyminesupply.
GlobalDemand ():ShakyrecoveryintheUS,QuestionsaboutChinaandEU,andFallingdemandinDM.
EUNatGasPriceIndexation(+/?):ContinuedshiftinEUmarketfromOilIndexedpricingofNatGastospotmarket,goodforoveralindustry/marketstructure,neartermpricingimplicationsareunknown.
MarketStructure ():SignificantsupplybuildGloballylikelytokeeppricesrelativlylow
OPEC(?):Traditionalrolekeepingsupplyanddemandinbalancehasbeenabandoned,forthemoment.
USExportPolicy(?):ChangetoUSCrudeOilexportpolicycouldresultinfloodofUSinventoryintomarket,changewouldbebadforpricingintheneartermbutlongtermimpactisdifficulttoanticipate,asislikelyhoodofchange.
NatGas(+/)$0.50/MCFEBITDA:$35CFO:$28
(+/)$1.00/ozEBITDA:$100CFO:$80
(+/)$50.00/ozEBITDA:$100CFO:$60
(+/)$0.10/lbEBITDA:$500CFO:$350
Copper
Gold
Molybdenum
Oil/NatGasOil(+/)$5.00/bbl
EBITDA:$190CFO:$150
ChinaandCommodityPrices
31
FCXhaslimiteddirectexposuretoChinabutstillhassignificantindirectexposureviaprices.ThereismoretocopperthanChina,afewideasworththinkingabout
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000FCXRevenuebyCustomerLocation
2012 2013 2014
FCXprovidesover40%ofdownstreamcopperfortheUSMarket.
Moreimportantthantheofftakeofanyindividualplayerforcopperpricingistheoverallglobalgrowthindemand.
Copperdemandindifferentregionshasshiftedregularlyoverthelastthirtyyears:
Inthe80sgrowthwasdrivenbythedevelopedworld(DM).
Inthe90sgrowthwasspiltattimesdrivenbytheDWandattimesbyEMs.
Since2000EMdemandhasdrivenglobaldemand.
Althoughdifficulttopinpointexactlyintermsofvolumes,EMdemandinrecentyearshasasignificantoutsourcingcomponent(importedcopperintoChina,reexportedinfinalproducts).
ThelackofdirectsalestoChinaoffersFCXampleopportunitytoexpandsalesintoChina,acountrythatwill,regardlessofanyeconomicmissteps,stillconsumesignificantquantitiesofcopper,eveninrecessionordepression.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
CopperSupplyandConsumption
WorldSupplyRefinedSupply(kt) WorldRefinedConsumption(kt)
ChinaConsumption(kt)
Valuation
DCFofMiningAssets
33
BaseCase ProjectedYearEnding 20142019USDInMillions 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGRSales $18,010 $18,305 $16,728 $15,872 $19,693 $22,015 $19,455 $22,132 5.8%Costofgoods sold (10,382) (11,158) (10,667) (9,655) (11,889) (13,252) (11,790) (13,443)Gross Profit 7,628 7,147 6,061 6,217 7,805 8,763 7,665 8,689 7.5%SG&A (635) (813) (616) (700) (747) (768) (704) (738)EBITDA 6,993 6,334 5,445 5,517 7,058 7,995 6,961 7,952 7.9%EBITDAMargin 39% 35% 33% 35% 36% 36% 36% 36%
Less:DD&A 1,179 1,433 1,572 1,609 1,797 1,884 1,647 1,716EBIT 5,814 4,901 3,873 3,908 5,261 6,111 5,314 6,236Less:Taxes (35%) (2,035) (1,715) (1,356) (1,368) (1,841) (2,139) (1,860) (2,183)NOPAT 3,779 3,186 2,517 2,540 3,419 3,972 3,454 4,053Plus:Depreciationandamortization 1,433 1,572 1,609 1,797 1,884 1,647 1,716Less:Capital expenditures (3,794) (3,988) (3,700) (2,800) (2,400) (2,400) (2,400)Less:Intersest (337) (389) (678) (669) (611) (499) (484)(Increase)/decreaseinworkingcapital 275 (113) (141) 413 468 (163) 436LeveredFreeCashFlow 763 (401) (370) 2,160 3,313 2,039 3,321
LeveredFreeCashFlow (370) 2,160 3,313 2,039 3,321Discountperiod 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0WACC 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%Discountfactor 0.926 0.857 0.794 0.735 0.681PresentvalueofeachLeveredFreeCashFlow (342)$ 1,852$ 2,630$ 1,499$ 2,260$
Weightedaveragecostofcapital: 8.0% Weightedaveragecostofcapital: 8.0%Netpresentvalueoffreecashflow 7,898.3 Netpresentvalueoffreecashflow 7,898.3Terminalmultiple 9.0x TerminalGrowthRate 2.5%Terminalvalue 56,124.4 Terminalvalue 61,886.6Presentvalueoftheterminal value 38,197.3 Presentvalueoftheterminal value 42,119.0
Enterprisevalue 46,095.6 AssetValue 50,017.3Less:Netdebt (16,402.0) Less:Netdebt (16,402.0)Equityvalue 29,693.6 NetAssetValue 33,615.3
Dilutedshares: 1,039 Dilutedshares: 1,039EquityValuePerShare 28.58 NetAssetValuePerShare 32.35
Currentshareprice: 20.82 Currentshareprice: 20.82MarginofSafety: 7.76 MarginofSafety: 11.53
6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00%7.0x $23.74 $22.03 $20.41 $18.87 $17.42 0.5% $24.35 $22.61 $20.96 $19.40 $17.928.0x $28.23 $26.31 $24.49 $22.77 $21.14 1.5% $29.64 $27.66 $25.78 $24.00 $22.329.0x $32.71 $30.59 $28.58 $26.67 $24.87 2.5% $36.86 $34.54 $32.35 $30.28 $28.31
10.0x $37.20 $34.87 $32.66 $30.58 $28.60 3.5% $47.28 $44.49 $41.85 $39.34 $36.9711.0x $41.68 $39.15 $36.75 $34.48 $32.32 4.5% $63.66 $60.11 $56.76 $53.59 $50.58
Term
inal
Multip
le
WACC
FiscalYearEnded
PerpetuityGrowthMethodEBITMultipleMethod
WACC
Grow
thRate
Term
inal
DCFofOil/NatGasAssets
34
BaseCase ProjectedYearEnding 20142019USDinMillions 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGRSales $2,616 $4,710 $3,017 $3,061 $3,694 $4,834 $4,908 0.8%Costofgoods sold (682) (1,237) (789) (801) (967) (1,265) (1,284)Gross Profit 1,934 3,473 2,227 2,260 2,727 3,569 3,624 0.9%SG&A (120) (207) (135) (137) (166) (217) (220)EBITDA 1,814 3,266 2,092 2,122 2,562 3,352 3,403 0.8%EBITDAMargin 69% 69% 69% 69% 69% 69% 69%
Less:DD&A 1,364 2,291 1,520 1,542 1,861 2,436 2,473EBIT 450 975 572 580 700 916 930Less:Taxes (35%) (158) (341) (200) (203) (245) (321) (326)NOPAT 293 634 372 377 455 595 605Plus:Depreciationandamortization 1,364 2,291 1,520 1,542 1,861 2,436 2,473Less:Capital expenditures (1,436) (3,205) (2,800) (2,300) (2,400) (2,400) (2,400)Less:Interest (181) (241) (171) (171) (171) (171) (171)(Increase)/decreaseinworkingcapital 275 (113) (141) 413 468 (163) 436LeveredFreeCashFlow 315 (634) (1,220) (139) 214 298 943
LeveredFreeCashFlow (1,220.4) (138.7) 213.6 297.6 943.1Discountperiod 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0WACC 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%Discountfactor 0.926 0.857 0.794 0.735 0.681PresentvalueofeachLeveredFreeCashFlow (1,130.0) (118.9) 169.6 218.7 641.8
Weightedaveragecostofcapital: 8.0% Weightedaveragecostofcapital: 8.0%Netpresentvalueoffreecashflow (218.8) Netpresentvalueoffreecashflow (218.8)Terminalmultiple 8.0x Terminalmultiple 2.5%Terminalvalue 7,440.9 Terminalvalue 17,575.2Presentvalueoftheterminal value 5,064.2 Presentvalueoftheterminal value 11,961.4
Enterprisevalue 4,845.4 AssetValue 11,742.6Less:Netdebt (2,568.0) Less:Netdebt (2,568.0)Equityvalue 2,277.4 NetAssetValue 9,174.6
Dilutedshares: 1,039 Dilutedshares: 1,039EquityValuePerShare 2.19 NetAssetValuePerShare 8.83
Currentshareprice: 20.82 Currentshareprice: 20.82MarginofSafety: (18.63) MarginofSafety: (11.99)
6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00%6.0x $1.54 $1.36 $1.18 $1.02 $0.86 0.5% $6.47 $6.02 $5.60 $5.19 $4.827.0x $2.21 $2.00 $1.79 $1.60 $1.42 1.5% $7.97 $7.45 $6.96 $6.50 $6.068.0x $2.88 $2.63 $2.40 $2.18 $1.98 2.5% $10.02 $9.41 $8.83 $8.28 $7.779.0x $3.55 $3.27 $3.01 $2.76 $2.53 3.5% $12.98 $12.23 $11.53 $10.86 $10.23
10.0x $4.22 $3.91 $3.62 $3.35 $3.09 4.5% $17.63 $16.67 $15.76 $14.90 $14.09
WACC
FiscalYearEnded
EBITMultipleMethod PerpetuityGrowthMethod
WACC
Term
inal
Multip
le
Term
inal
Grow
thRate
CombinedDCF
35
BaseCase ProjectedYearEnding 20142019USDInMillions 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGRSales $18,010 $20,921 $21,438 $18,888 $22,754 $25,709 $24,289 $27,040 4.8%Costofgoods sold (10,382) (11,840) (11,904) (10,444) (12,690) (14,218) (13,055) (14,727)Gross Profit 7,628 9,081 9,534 8,444 10,065 11,490 11,234 12,313 5.2%SG&A (635) (933) (823) (835) (884) (934) (921) (958)EBITDA 6,993 8,148 8,711 7,609 9,180 10,557 10,313 11,355 5.4%EBITDAMargin 39% 39% 41% 40% 40% 41% 42% 42%
Less:DD&A 1,179 2,797 3,863 3,129 3,340 3,745 4,083 4,189EBIT 5,814 5,351 4,848 4,480 5,841 6,811 6,230 7,166Less:Taxes (35%) (2,035) (1,873) (1,697) (1,568) (2,044) (2,384) (2,180) (2,508)NOPAT 3,779 3,478 3,151 2,912 3,796 4,427 4,049 4,658Plus:Depreciationandamortization 2,797 3,863 3,129 3,340 3,745 4,083 4,189Less:Capital expenditures (5,230) (7,193) (6,500) (5,100) (4,800) (4,800) (4,800)Less:Intersest (518) (630) (849) (840) (782) (670) (655)(Increase)/decreaseinworkingcapital 275 (113) (141) 413 468 (163) 436LeveredFreeCashFlow 802 (922) (1,449) 1,609 3,059 2,499 3,828
LeveredFreeCashFlow (1,449) 1,609 3,059 2,499 3,828Discountperiod 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0WACC 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%Discountfactor 0.926 0.857 0.794 0.735 0.681PresentvalueofeachLeveredFreeCashFlow (1,342)$ 1,379$ 2,428$ 1,837$ 2,605$
Weightedaveragecostofcapital: 8.0% Weightedaveragecostofcapital: 8.0%Netpresentvalueoffreecashflow 6,907.8 Netpresentvalueoffreecashflow 6,907.8Terminalmultiple 8.0x TerminalGrowthRate 2.5%Terminalvalue 57,329.3 Terminalvalue 71,333.9Presentvalueoftheterminal value 39,017.3 Presentvalueoftheterminal value 48,548.6
Enterprisevalue 45,925.2 AssetValue 55,456.5Less:Netdebt (18,970.0) Less:Netdebt (18,970.0)Equityvalue 26,955.2 NetAssetValue 36,486.5
Dilutedshares: 1,039 Dilutedshares: 1,039EquityValuePerShare 25.94 NetAssetValuePerShare 35.12
Currentshareprice: 20.82 Currentshareprice: 20.82MarginofSafety: 5.12 MarginofSafety: 14.30
6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00%6.0x $19.86 $18.16 $16.56 $15.03 $13.59 0.5% $25.82 $23.85 $21.99 $20.22 $18.557.0x $25.01 $23.08 $21.25 $19.52 $17.87 1.5% $31.92 $29.67 $27.54 $25.53 $23.628.0x $30.17 $28.00 $25.94 $24.00 $22.16 2.5% $40.24 $37.61 $35.12 $32.76 $30.539.0x $35.32 $32.91 $30.64 $28.48 $26.44 3.5% $52.25 $49.07 $46.06 $43.21 $40.51
10.0x $40.47 $37.83 $35.33 $32.96 $30.72 4.5% $71.13 $67.08 $63.25 $59.63 $56.19
Term
inal
Multip
le
Term
inal
Grow
thRate
FiscalYearEnded
EBITMultipleMethod PerpetuityGrowthMethod
WACC WACC
RelativeValuationAcrossmostmetricsFCXtradesatadiscounttoitspeers.
36
2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017ENYSE:FCX FreeportMcMoRan 21.48 USD 20.66 27.2 10.0 6.4 10.1 7.7 5.9 3.7 3.0 2.5
CopperLSE:ANTO Antofagasta 10.99 GBpUSD 11.14 18.0 14.7 12.1 9.0 6.8 5.5 8.2 6.3 5.9TSX:FM FirstQuantumMinerals 8.17 CADUSD 13.61 19.6 8.0 5.1 24.0 9.1 5.8 6.6 3.8 3.1LSE:KAZ KAZMinerals 1.56 GBpUSD 3.50 NM 17.4 4.8 30.7 8.4 4.1 16.1 5.0 2.2WSE:KGH KGHMPolskaMiedz 6.41 PLNUSD 32.05 9.1 9.5 7.6 8.3 8.3 6.7 5.5 6.6 5.4NYSE:SCCO SouthernCopperCorp 24.20 USD 30.00 20.6 15.1 10.6 13.6 9.9 7.2 13.9 11.7 8.1TSX:LUN LundinMining 2.98 CADUSD 4.15 10.7 9.3 6.2 9.5 9.2 7.1 4.3 4.2 3.7Average(simple) 15.6 12.4 7.7 15.9 8.6 6.1 9.1 6.3 4.7
DiversifiedMiningLSE:AAL AngloAmerican 21.71 GBpUSD 15.48 12.1 9.0 6.6 9.9 7.9 6.0 3.7 3.3 2.6ASX:BHP BHPBilliton 122.48 AUDUSD 23.02 15.9 19.2 14.3 10.6 12.7 9.7 6.7 6.8 6.0LSE:RIO RioTinto 78.61 GBpUSD 42.87 14.6 11.7 10.6 11.9 10.3 8.9 7.2 6.1 5.4NYSE:VALE Vale 28.07 USD 5.87 NM 3.8 3.4 14.4 9.4 6.1 3.2 4.1 NMTSX:TCK.B TeckResources 8.00 CAD 13.86 16.3 12.1 8.1 11.6 8.8 6.7 4.6 3.9 3.4LSE:GLEN Glencore 58.43 GBpUSD 4.52 18.1 11.6 9.4 19.2 13.3 11.3 5.1 4.9 4.4Average(simple) 15.4 11.2 8.7 12.9 10.4 8.1 5.1 4.9 4.4
Exploration&ProductionNYSE:APC AnadarkoPetroleum 47.76 USD 93.30 NM 155.0 43.4 NM 39.9 19.7 10.5 7.5 6.9NYSE:APA Apache 24.99 USD 66.96 NM 93.0 30.2 NM 30.0 21.3 5.8 4.6 4.6NYSE:HES Hess 21.62 USD 75.26 NM NM 90.2 NM 174.8 31.7 6.8 4.9 4.8NYSE:NBL NobleEnergy 19.59 USD 49.90 122.9 66.7 31.6 46.0 32.5 18.7 8.5 7.0 6.5NYSE:OXY Occidental 61.40 USD 79.72 67.7 26.4 24.6 55.9 27.5 15.2 11.2 8.1 7.4Average(simple) 95.3 85.3 44.0 50.9 60.9 21.3 8.6 6.4 6.0
NameTickerPE EV/EBIT CFPSShare
PriceCurrencyMktCap
($bn)
FCXtradesatadiscounttobothcopperpeersanddiversifiedminingfirms. FCStradesatasignificantdiscounttoE&Pswithsimilarreserveprofiles.
Appendix
AppendixA:CommodityPriceDeck
38
Commoditypricedeckbasedonfutures,CreditSuisseandBankofAmericaEstimates.
CommodityForecastBear Base Bull Bear Base Bull Bear Base Bull Bear Base Bull Bear Base Bull
Copper $perLB 2.15 2.5 3.22 2.3 2.65 3.5 2.65 2.95 4 2.6 2.95 4 2.95 3.27 4Gold $perOz 1,000 1,200 1,550 1,000 1,250 1,650 950 1,250 1,500 900 1,250 1,500 950 1,300 1,500WTI $perbbl 45 57 76 52 67 85 53 72 94 63 78 95 64 81 97Molybdnum $perLB 7 10 14 7 11 15 9 11 16 8 12 16 8 12 16Cobalt $perLB 9 14 17 9 13 15 10 13 16 10 13 16 11 13 16
FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019
AppendixB:PossiblePEPartners
39
Company Fund Vintage FundSize CapitalCalled(%) TotalValue Company Fund Vintage Target ExpectedCompletionAPO ApolloNaturalResources 2012 1,300 45% 568 APO EnergyCreditOpps 2015 600 Apr15BX EnergyPartners 2011 2,500 51% 1875 NaturalResourceII 2016 2,500 Jun16
EnergyII 2003 1,100 96% 212 EnergyPartnersI 2015 4,500 Jan15EnergyIII 2005 3,800 100% 1527 GSODistressedEnergy 2015 3,000 Dec15EnergyIV 2008 5,980 93% 3322 InternationalEnergyII 2015 2,500 Jan15NGPX 2012 3,586 73% 3037 PowerII 215 1,250 Sep15InterationalEnergy 2013 1,780 11% 147 NGPXI 2015 5,300 Jan15KKRNaturalResources 2010 1,250 81% 629 EnergyMezzII 2015 2,500 Jun15EnergyandIncome 2013 2,000 18% 359 KKR SpecialSitsII 2016 2,750 Mar16KKRGlobalEnergy Various 1,028 12% 76 OAK PowerOppsIV 2015 1,000 Mar15PowerOppsI 2000 454 85% 0PowerOppsII 2005 1,020 56% 75HighstarCapital 2007 3,500 112% 3769PowerOppsIII 2010 1,040 50% 550
Source:Prequin,CompanyData,CreditSuisseEstimates
OAK
PEFocusedEnergyFundsAlreadyRaised PEEnergyFocusedFundsBeingRaised
CG
BX
CG
KKR
AlthoughlargeamountsofcapitalhavebeenraisedbyenergyfocusedPEfirms,verylittlehasactuallybeendeployed.