From modelling guidelines to model portfolio management
• THORSTEN ARNOLD, GREY BRUCE CENTRE FOR AGROECOLOGY
• JOSEPH H.A. GUILLAUME, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY
• TUOMAS LAHTINEN, SYSTEMS ANALYSIS LABORATORY, AALTO UNIVERSITY
• R. WILLEM VERVOORT, SYDNEY INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURE, THE UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY
EMS Paper, Jan 2020
What is a Data Management Strategies (DMS), and why do organizations have one?
DMS: “a defined process for handling the data within an organization.”
The DMS ensures that data … is stored, categorized and standardized using defined & known frameworks
… can be accessed and processed in a manner required by the organization
… data use is assured, monitored, and safe.
What is aModel Management Strategy (MMS),
and why would an organization have one?
….
Lessons & experiences on Model Management
Operations Research
Earth Systems modelling agencies
Hydro-meteorological real-time forecasting and other research initiatives
Private engineering firms
Academia-driven data and model hubs
National-scale authoritative models
Ontario’s drinking water protection program
Ontario’s Oak Ridges Moraine Groundwater Program (ORMGP)
http://data.geus.dk/geusmap
What is a model application?
Monitoring data
Assumptions and scientific theories
Software code
Input dataSoftware
procedures
Output data Interpretable results
Software procedures
Knowledge & skills, documentation
MMS must meet needs ofhigh-level managers/boards
Generality
Simplicity
Practicality
Objectives of a MMS(1) Recognize broad model functions
1. Regulatory requirements or core organizational tasks
2. Organize and share existing information
3. Prioritize the collection of new information
4. Communication support
Objectives of a MMS
(2) Respect operational workflows
Objectives of a MMS(3) Allow governance
Three leverage points:
1. Procedures and standards
2. Knowledge and skills
3. Cyberinfrastructure
Objectives of a MMS(4a) Govern effective leverage points
1. Procedures and standardsa. Standards
b. Guidelines & procedures
2. Knowledge and skills
3. Cyberinfrastructure
Objectives of a MMS(4b) Govern effective leverage points
1. Procedures and standards
2. Knowledge and skillsa. Understanding needs for knowledge & skills
b. Existing capacity
c. Strategies to access knowledge and skills
3. Cyberinfrastructure
Objectives of a MMS(4c) Govern effective leverage points
1. Procedures and standards
2. Knowledge and skills
3. Cyberinfrastructure
1. Hardware
2. Data
3. Software code
4. Workflow management
Example/experience:
Guidelines for actively managing numerical models at watershed-scale in Ontario
Ontario’s context Modelling mostly performed by consultants on behalf of agencies
Model custodian: staff shared between multiple agencies
Define:
Standards for reporting, file naming, directory structures,
Contract templates and standard clauses
Advise:
problem definition,
project scoping,
RfPs
Supports contracting, review deliverables
Long-term storage, access, archiving
https://oakridgeswater.ca/publicationsite
Summary & conclusion
Towards explicit strategies for managing model portfolios.
Largely overlooked task of public agencies that utilize models for policy support
MMS ensures / improves
Longevity and reusability
Legal defensibility and democratic transparency
Cost-effectiveness and scientific robustness
Respect organizational contexts
Organizational setups (partnerships, etc)
Capacity (management & staff)
From simple (e.g. standardizing file naming, directory structure & archiving) to highly involved (e.g. in-house software code development)
”“ For adaptive management we can
strategically build knowledge infrastructure, with models as essential tools.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
ThorstenArnold.com
