From Proprietas to UsusTowards a genuine European way of

life

Crowdsourcing week Summit

Brussels, 5 June 2014

Domenico ROSSETTIEuropean Commission DG RTD*

Domenico.Rossetti-di-Valdalbero@ec.europa.eu

* Personally speaking

http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/forward-looking_en.html

EU binomial rethinking

Professional and personal life

Public and private sectors

Manufacturing and services

Science and Society

Multinationals and small businesses

Proprietas and Usus

Source: D. Rossetti

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Economics and Geopolitics

North-South? East-West? Developed-developing?

Multipolar world, G2, G3, "The end of the West"?

Neo-Keynesian, neo-liberal, State capitalism?

Mega-regional agreements as a basis for world governance or as a tool fragmenting the world economy?

Source: D. Rossetti 4

A EU vision of socio-economic cohesion

Unsustainable trendsand Europe's challenges

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Health, Energy and Transport

Obesity is a leading cause of premature death More than 40% of the world electricity is generated from

coal with its CC impacts (1400 coal power plants in China) In 2013, EU energy bill amounted to € 400 Billion World transport will be multiplied by three between 2000

and 2050 (passenger/km and ton/km) A car is parked 92% of its life cycle The average speed of an international freight train in the

EU is 18km/h

Source: D. Rossetti selection from European Commission Communications

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Global resource extraction

Source: OECD; Behrens; WMM, Global Insight, Ellen Mac Arthur Foundation – Circular economy team

Today: 70 billion tonnes extracted

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Wealth and poverty 27,000 people world-wide with more than € 400 M

More than 5 billion people with less than € 10/day

Source: WSJ report on Crédit Suisse statistics

UN 2011 Report and UN-Habitat

~80 M€

~ 60% of urban population in Africa

and ~ 40% Southern Asia live in slums9

Close but… different neighbourhood

Source: São Paulo, picture from D. Bounds blog

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Concentration in Megacities?

Source: UN-Habitat

Tokyo 34 M inh.

Seoul 25 M inh.

New Delhi 23 M inh.

Sao Paolo 21 M inh.

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Population (Million)

Source: UN, World Population Prospects

1950 2011 2050 Factor

India 372 1 241 1 692 ~X 4 / 5

Brazil 54 197 223 ~X 4

USA 158 313 403 ~X 2 / 3

China 551 1 347 1 296 ~X 2 /3

EU 28 381 510 520 ~X 1 / 1.5

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The EU GDP in % of global output

37% in 1970

28% in 2010

20% in 2030

17% in 2050

Source: UNCTAD and EC – Global Europe 2050

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CO2 emissions – Old and new actors

2000 2050USA & Canada 23% 12%

Enlarged EU 14% 8%

Russia & CIS 8% 5%

Japan 4% 2%

S-E Asia - China 20% 27%

South Asia - India 7% 13%

Africa 7% 15%

Latin America 7% 9%

Others 10% 9%

49%

51%

27%

73%

Source: EC, DG ENV/CLIMA

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Gonzales Report "Europe 2030"

Source: http://www.flagslist.com/maps/Asia/asia-map.gif

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"Europe is at a crossroads: either we keep and strengthen the role as one of the main global actors, or we become an “increasingly irrelevant outgrowth on the Asian continent"

Youth unemployment in the EU (in %)

Source: Eurostat, Eurofound - Statista, 2013

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And …15 M of NEETS Young Europeans Not in Employment, Education or Training

Ageing EU population (000 people)

Source: EC, DG ECFIN, Ageing Report (H. Bogaert)

The number of people over 65 will double in 50 years (up to 150 M in 2060)

The "oldest old" (85 and over) will almost triple

The share of health expenditures in the EU is expected to increase from 8% of GDP today to 13% in 2060

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EU oil consumption and production

Source: Grande Reportagem

Towards a genuine European way of life

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Right policy messages but wrong anticipation of technological progress

Malthus "Essay on the principle of population" Meadows Report "The Limits to Growth" Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas

20Source: D. Rossetti

1970: 300 m

2010: 3000 m

Deep sea drilling

Source: IFP

From Proprietas to Usus

New economy and younger generation:

Less ownership (purchasing)More access (renting and sharing)Use of ICT (easy, cheap, fast) & Data

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Collaborative and shared economy

On the positive side Social exchanges, community life and new services Individual empowerment and social responsibility Paulo "humaniora" canamus

On the negative side Precarity of work (cf. "eBay of work", small jobs) From local/community platforms to world platforms From shared values to quasi-monopolies

Source: D. Rossetti23

Role of research and innovation(“3% GDP target”)

Source: EC, DG RTD, DEMETER (P. Zagamé)

Evolution of GDP (Billion € 2000)

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Forecast before Crise New forecast Counter-cyclical scenario

(1)

(2)

(3)

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Promoting innovation

Product innovation

Process innovation

Marketing innovation

Organisational innovation

… And Social innovation

Source: Oslo Manual and EC

See the European Innovation Convention 2014

Turning the eyes

Most of the efforts these last 50 years in R&D were directly linked to industrial policies. In Europe:

In the eighties, the eyes were turned towards Japan and “technology push”

In 2000 (Lisbon), the eyes were turned towards USA: Competitiveness, innovation and flexibility

Today: Europe 2020 strategy – Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth – – Horizon 2020

Source: D. Rossetti26

Acting on lifestyles

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Valuing the time

2 hours

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Source: Newman and Kenworthy

Building sustainable cities Eloge de la densité

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Exploiting cultural heritage

Tradition is not leaving ashes, its is passing the flame

Thomas More

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Towards "intangible"Food and information (2000-2100)

Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-T (Chateau and Rossetti)

Hours/day/pers

Information index32

TitleSubtitle

CLOUD COMPUTING

Cloud computing allows you to do what you want to do, without need

for large amounts of capital for computers, servers and software.It is expected that more and more software will be delivered in future

through the cloud

Your dishwasher talking to your fridge talking to your car talking to

your smart phone. Data about everything you do, before you do it.

All connected to smart grids and smart meters at the level of the

smart city

COLLABORATIVESYSTEMS

New collaboration technologies and services are

making it possible for citizens toengage in societal activities

in many new ways – from citizen science to crowdfunding and

crowd-deciding

Present and future eco / socio / techno

INTERNET OF THINGS

Source: EC, BEPA and DG RTD, 2014 (4 out of 60 STAC fiches)

Conclusions: Sobriety vs. Excess

Lagom

Negawatt Genuine Progress Indicator

No planned or wished obsolescence

Novelty to meet social needs

Socio-ecological transition 34

Conclusions: Change of paradigm

Redefining success and experiencing well-being New narrative about growth and jobs Learning (what) but also how to learn From a consumption-waste society to a circular

economy: sobriety, shared consumption and preservation of resources

From consumers to "innosumers" Beyond tangibles & Beyond GDP

Source: D. Rossetti35

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