From Proprietas to UsusTowards a genuine European way of
life
Crowdsourcing week Summit
Brussels, 5 June 2014
Domenico ROSSETTIEuropean Commission DG RTD*
* Personally speaking
http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/forward-looking_en.html
EU binomial rethinking
Professional and personal life
Public and private sectors
Manufacturing and services
Science and Society
Multinationals and small businesses
Proprietas and Usus
Source: D. Rossetti
3
Economics and Geopolitics
North-South? East-West? Developed-developing?
Multipolar world, G2, G3, "The end of the West"?
Neo-Keynesian, neo-liberal, State capitalism?
Mega-regional agreements as a basis for world governance or as a tool fragmenting the world economy?
Source: D. Rossetti 4
A EU vision of socio-economic cohesion
Unsustainable trendsand Europe's challenges
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Health, Energy and Transport
Obesity is a leading cause of premature death More than 40% of the world electricity is generated from
coal with its CC impacts (1400 coal power plants in China) In 2013, EU energy bill amounted to € 400 Billion World transport will be multiplied by three between 2000
and 2050 (passenger/km and ton/km) A car is parked 92% of its life cycle The average speed of an international freight train in the
EU is 18km/h
Source: D. Rossetti selection from European Commission Communications
7
Global resource extraction
Source: OECD; Behrens; WMM, Global Insight, Ellen Mac Arthur Foundation – Circular economy team
Today: 70 billion tonnes extracted
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Wealth and poverty 27,000 people world-wide with more than € 400 M
More than 5 billion people with less than € 10/day
Source: WSJ report on Crédit Suisse statistics
UN 2011 Report and UN-Habitat
~80 M€
~ 60% of urban population in Africa
and ~ 40% Southern Asia live in slums9
Close but… different neighbourhood
Source: São Paulo, picture from D. Bounds blog
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Concentration in Megacities?
Source: UN-Habitat
Tokyo 34 M inh.
Seoul 25 M inh.
New Delhi 23 M inh.
Sao Paolo 21 M inh.
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Population (Million)
Source: UN, World Population Prospects
1950 2011 2050 Factor
India 372 1 241 1 692 ~X 4 / 5
Brazil 54 197 223 ~X 4
USA 158 313 403 ~X 2 / 3
China 551 1 347 1 296 ~X 2 /3
EU 28 381 510 520 ~X 1 / 1.5
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The EU GDP in % of global output
37% in 1970
28% in 2010
20% in 2030
17% in 2050
Source: UNCTAD and EC – Global Europe 2050
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CO2 emissions – Old and new actors
2000 2050USA & Canada 23% 12%
Enlarged EU 14% 8%
Russia & CIS 8% 5%
Japan 4% 2%
S-E Asia - China 20% 27%
South Asia - India 7% 13%
Africa 7% 15%
Latin America 7% 9%
Others 10% 9%
49%
51%
27%
73%
Source: EC, DG ENV/CLIMA
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Gonzales Report "Europe 2030"
Source: http://www.flagslist.com/maps/Asia/asia-map.gif
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"Europe is at a crossroads: either we keep and strengthen the role as one of the main global actors, or we become an “increasingly irrelevant outgrowth on the Asian continent"
Youth unemployment in the EU (in %)
Source: Eurostat, Eurofound - Statista, 2013
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And …15 M of NEETS Young Europeans Not in Employment, Education or Training
Ageing EU population (000 people)
Source: EC, DG ECFIN, Ageing Report (H. Bogaert)
The number of people over 65 will double in 50 years (up to 150 M in 2060)
The "oldest old" (85 and over) will almost triple
The share of health expenditures in the EU is expected to increase from 8% of GDP today to 13% in 2060
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EU oil consumption and production
Source: Grande Reportagem
Towards a genuine European way of life
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Right policy messages but wrong anticipation of technological progress
Malthus "Essay on the principle of population" Meadows Report "The Limits to Growth" Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
20Source: D. Rossetti
1970: 300 m
2010: 3000 m
Deep sea drilling
Source: IFP
From Proprietas to Usus
New economy and younger generation:
Less ownership (purchasing)More access (renting and sharing)Use of ICT (easy, cheap, fast) & Data
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Collaborative and shared economy
On the positive side Social exchanges, community life and new services Individual empowerment and social responsibility Paulo "humaniora" canamus
On the negative side Precarity of work (cf. "eBay of work", small jobs) From local/community platforms to world platforms From shared values to quasi-monopolies
Source: D. Rossetti23
Role of research and innovation(“3% GDP target”)
Source: EC, DG RTD, DEMETER (P. Zagamé)
Evolution of GDP (Billion € 2000)
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Forecast before Crise New forecast Counter-cyclical scenario
(1)
(2)
(3)
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Promoting innovation
Product innovation
Process innovation
Marketing innovation
Organisational innovation
… And Social innovation
Source: Oslo Manual and EC
See the European Innovation Convention 2014
Turning the eyes
Most of the efforts these last 50 years in R&D were directly linked to industrial policies. In Europe:
In the eighties, the eyes were turned towards Japan and “technology push”
In 2000 (Lisbon), the eyes were turned towards USA: Competitiveness, innovation and flexibility
Today: Europe 2020 strategy – Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth – – Horizon 2020
Source: D. Rossetti26
Acting on lifestyles
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Valuing the time
2 hours
28
Source: Newman and Kenworthy
Building sustainable cities Eloge de la densité
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Exploiting cultural heritage
Tradition is not leaving ashes, its is passing the flame
Thomas More
31
Towards "intangible"Food and information (2000-2100)
Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-T (Chateau and Rossetti)
Hours/day/pers
Information index32
TitleSubtitle
CLOUD COMPUTING
Cloud computing allows you to do what you want to do, without need
for large amounts of capital for computers, servers and software.It is expected that more and more software will be delivered in future
through the cloud
Your dishwasher talking to your fridge talking to your car talking to
your smart phone. Data about everything you do, before you do it.
All connected to smart grids and smart meters at the level of the
smart city
COLLABORATIVESYSTEMS
New collaboration technologies and services are
making it possible for citizens toengage in societal activities
in many new ways – from citizen science to crowdfunding and
crowd-deciding
Present and future eco / socio / techno
INTERNET OF THINGS
Source: EC, BEPA and DG RTD, 2014 (4 out of 60 STAC fiches)
Conclusions: Sobriety vs. Excess
Lagom
Negawatt Genuine Progress Indicator
No planned or wished obsolescence
Novelty to meet social needs
Socio-ecological transition 34
Conclusions: Change of paradigm
Redefining success and experiencing well-being New narrative about growth and jobs Learning (what) but also how to learn From a consumption-waste society to a circular
economy: sobriety, shared consumption and preservation of resources
From consumers to "innosumers" Beyond tangibles & Beyond GDP
Source: D. Rossetti35
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