Front Matter

Front MatterSource: Operations Research, Vol. 11, No. 1 (Jan. - Feb., 1963), pp. i-xiiPublished by: INFORMSStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/168139 .

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OPERATIONS RESEARCH

The Journal of the Operations Research

Society of America



Operations Research

EDITOR

THOMAS E. CAYWOOD Peat, Marwick, Caywood, Schiller & Co.

203 N. Wabash Ave., Chicago 1, Ill.

Editorial Secretary-JOVITA CAJANDIG

ASSOCIATE EDITORS

RUSSELL L. ACKOFF, Case Institute of Technology, Cleveland, Ohio WILLIAM W. COOPER, Carnegie Institute of Technology, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania GEORGE B. DANTZIG, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California WALTER L. DEEMER, Operations Analysis Office, Hq., U.S.A.F., Washington, D. C ROBERT DORFMAN, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts JOSEPH H. ENGEL, Operations Evaluation Group, Washington, D. C. CHARLES GOODEVE, British Iron & Steel Assn., London W1, England JOSEPH O. HARRISON, JR., Research Analysis Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland G. RONALD HERD, Booz -Allen Applied Research Inc., Bethesda, Maryland ROBERT HERMAN, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan WILLIAM J. HORVATH, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan THORNTON PAGE, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut E. W. PAXSON, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California WILLIAM J. PLATT, Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, California PAUL RANDOLPH, Purdue University, Lafayette, Indiana ANDREW SCHULTZ, JR., Cornell University, Ithaca, New York GEORGE SHORTLEY, Booz-Allen Applied Research, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland LAJOS TAKkCS, Columbia University, New York, New York R. M. THRALL, Editor, Management Science, Box 626, Ann Arbor, Michigan ROBERT S. WEINBERG, International Business Machines Corp., New York, N. Y. PETER B. WILSON, Canadian National Railways, Montreal, Quebec

EDITOR OF THE BULLETIN VAN COURT HARE, JR.

Analytical Associates, Inc. 420 Lexington Ave., New York 17, New York

MANAGING EDITOR AND ADVERTISING MANAGER

CHARLES P. CHADSEY Research Analysis Corporation

McLean, Virginia 22101 Editorial Secretary-,JEAN L. RICE



Copyright ' 1963 by the Operations Research Society of America. Published bimonthly by the Operations Research Society of America at

Mount Royal & Guilford Avenues, Baltimore 2, Maryland. Entered as second-class matter at the Post Office at Baltimore, Maryland. Subscriptions and orders for back issues should be addressed to the Business

Manager, NORVELL E. MILLER, III, Mount Royal and Guilford Ave- nues, Baltimore 2, Maryland.

Subscription Rate: $1.50 per issue through volume 7, $2.00 per issue beginning with volume 8; volume 5: $7.50 per volume; volumes 6 and 7 (including BULLETIN), $9.00 per volume; volume 8 (including BULLETIN), $10.00 per volume; outside U. S. and Canada, $7.50 per volume. Single copies of the BULLETIN, $0.75 each.

Reprints of individual articles are not available; they should be requested from the authors.

FOR PERMISSION to quote or reproduce other than brief pas-

ages from OPERATIONS RESEARCH, application should be made to the Editor.

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 53-12816



OPERATIONS

RESEARCH

The Journal of the Operations Research Society of America

January-February, 1963 VOLUME 11, NUMBER 1 i l

Pages 1-172

PUBLISHED BIMONTHLY BY THE

OPERATIONS RESEARCH SOCIETY OF AMERICA



OPERATIONS RESEARCH The Journal of the Operations Research Society of America

EDITOR

THOMAS E. CAYWOOD Peat, Marwick, Caywood, Schiller & Co.

203 N. Wabash Ave., Chicago 1, Ill. ASSOCIATE EDITORS

RUSSELL L. ACKOFF, Case Institute of Technology, Cleveland, Ohio WILLIAM W. COOPER, Carnegie Institute of Technology, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania GEORGE B. DANTZIG, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California WALTER L. DEEMER, Operations Analysis Office, Hq., U.S.A.F., Washington, D. C. ROBERT DORFMAN, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts JOSEPH H. ENGEL, Operations Evaluation Group, Washington, D. C. CHARLES GOODEVE, British Iron & Steel Assn., London W1, England JOSEPH 0. HARRISON, JR., Research Analysis Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland G. RONALD HERD, Booz * Allen Applied Research, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland ROBERT HERMAN, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan WILLIAM J. HORVATH, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan JOHN F. MAGEE, Arthur D. Little, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts JOSEPH F. MCCLOSKEY, North American Aviation, Inc., El Segundo, California THORNTON PAGE, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut E. W. PAXSON, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California WILLIAM J. PLATT, Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, California PAUL RANDOLPH, Purdue University, Lafayette, Indiana ANDREW SCHULTZ, JR., Cornell University, Ithaca, New York GEORGE SHORTLEY, Booz * Allen Applied Research, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland LAJOS TAKECS, Columbia University, New York, New York R. M. THRALL, Editor, Management Science, Ann Arbor, Michigan ROBERT S. WEINBERG, International Business Machines Corp., New York, N. Y. PETER B. WILSON, Canadian National Railways, Montreal, Quebec

MANUSCRIPTS of papers and Letters to the Editor should be submitted to the Editor or to one of the Associate Editors. Submission of a manuscript is considered to be a representation that it has been neither copyrighted nor published, that it is not being submitted for publication elsewhere, and that, if the work results from a military contract, it has been released for open publication. Material for the Analyst's Bookshelf should be submitted to JOSEPH F. Mc- CLOSKEY, Analyst's Bookshelf Editor, North American Aviation, Inc., 1700 East Imperial Highway, El Segundo, California. Announcements should be sent to the Editor.

MANAGING EDITOR AND ADVERTISING MANAGER

CHARLES P. CHADSEY Research Analysis Corporation

6935 Arlington Road, Bethesda 14, Maryland

Copyright ? 1963 by the Operations Research Society of America. Published bimonthly by the Operations Research Society of America at Mount

Royal and Guilford Avenues, Baltimore 2, Maryland. Second-class postage paid at the Post Office at Baltimore, Maryland. Subscriptions and orders for back issues should be addressed to the Business Manager,

NORVELL E. MILLER, III, Mount Royal and Guilford Aves., Baltimore 2, Md. Subscription Rate: $10.00 per volume (outside U. S. and Canada, $7.50 per volume).

Back volumes through 1959, $9.00. Single copies of back issues through 1959, $1.50; 1960, $2.00 per issue.

Reprints of individual articles are not available from the SOCIETY.



Exceptional Opportunities for

OPERATIONS RESEARCHERS

-and for others too: Operations Research oriented physical and behavioral scientists, mathematicians, statisticians, actuarial statisticians, and engineers, for instance.

Because we are a firm that is still expanding after a half century of unbroken growth, we recognize and respect talent, and have openings for seniors, intermediates, and juniors, in all the firm's districts.

Our constant need is for people who are problem- minded-with a flair for thoroughly effective solutions and their implementation, by suitable means, whether conventional or unconventional. This means premiums on versatility, independent thinking, ability to carry re- sponsibility, and ability to grow in stature.

We offer the opportunity to deal professionally with management problems in many firms and industries -at the decision-making and payoff evaluation level. We offer the challenge this implies, and the opportunity to use your full present skills and to develop new skills. We offer an excellent professional environment, among fellow professionals, where you are considered and treated as an individual.

We'd prefer to hear from you now-but are always on the lookout for the right man. Write to the personal attention of:

Dr. E. Leonard Arnoff Director of Operations Research Ernst & Ernst Cleveland 14, Ohio



ADVANCED CAREER OPPORTUNITIES

CENTER for NAVAL ANALYSES

New Operations Research Facility

for the United States Navy

The newly-established Center for planning advisor, studying such mat- Naval Analyses combines adminis- ters as the effects of scientific ad- tration of the Operations Evaluation vances upon seapower, the nature of Group (OEG) and the Institute of warfare and future threats in sea- Naval Studies (INS). Thus, the power, forecasts of enemy capabilities, major operations research organiza- particularly in a sea environment, and tions of the Navy have been brought similar questions of national and in- together under single management. ternational scope.

The missions and overall objectives CNA must expand to meet its of OEG and INS remain unchanged. responsibilities. It can offer outstand- OEG, the nation's senior military ing opportunities to creative scientists, operations research group, acts as engineers, mathematicians, operations civilian scientific advisor to the Chief analysts, and economists with ad- of Naval Operations; Commandant, vanced degrees. In CNA, you can U. S. Marine Corps; and to the U. S. help solve some of the most chal- Naval operating forces. Areas in lenging and significant problems of which OEG contributes analytical national defense. The positions (ini- guidance to decision-making include tially in Washington, D. C.) are well tactics, strategy, force composition, paid and carry comprehensive bene- weapon employment, and research fits. Please send your resume to Dr. and development needs. The asso- Frank Bothwell, Chief Scientist, ciated INS is continuing to develop Center for Naval Analyses. as the Navy's scientific long-range

CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES, Arlington Towers, Arlington 9, Virginia An equal opportunity employer

.



DOUGJ1~mmm

A NEW OPPORTUNITY

Douglas Aircraft is pleased to announce professional openings in a newly formed Advanced Developments Plans and Systems Analysis Section. The Douglas Aircraft Division is strengthening its leadership in the field of transportation, covering the complete spectrum from surface transportation to space vehicles.

A unique opportunity exists to utilize experience in both military and commercial operations and, most important, to enrich your professional experience by doing creative work in both management science and operations research.

Opportunities exist for work in the following fields:

* Advance Product Planning * Competitive Strategies * Commercial Transportation System Evaluation * Military Weapon Systems Effectiveness * Total System Costing * Operations Analysis Project Leadership

Please send resume to:

L. P. Kilgore, Supervisor, Personnel Dept. 621-L Douglas Aircraft Division 3855 Lakewood Blvd. Long Beach, Calif.

An equal opportunity employer

111



Are you in OPERATIONS Operations Research? RESEARCH

Then opportunity SENIOR ANALYST awaits you at Autonetics U Openings affording professional growth MS degree or equivalent required in opportunities are now available in the Management Science, Industrial En- following areas: gineering, or Operations Research

with 2-4 years minimum experience Conduct and direct operations research i ith2eappiaionofu teies studies in areas of advanced weapon in the application of O.R. techniques studis inarea of dvaned wapon desirable. Unusual opportunity for systems effectiveness evaluation, to include systems analysis, system simu- challenging work in projects involv- lation and cost effectiveness. ing all phases of Corporate activity. Lead team efforts in solving statistical Location in Corporate Headquarters, analysis and reliability analysis prob- Philadelphia, Pa. Salary individually lems utilizing operations research determined on complete background techniques. and experience. Develop advanced management Send Complete Resume To- methods for business analysis, planning and control. H. E. MICHENER, JR.

Send resume in confidence to: H. J. Brown, Autonetics, Professional Placement, 1220 SCOTT PAPER North Dowling, Anaheim, California.

AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY EMPLOYER COMPANY

Autonetics Q BOX 62-10, Philadelphia 13, Pa. Autonetics An Equal Opportunity Employer Division of North American Aviation

The Production and Distribution of Knowledge in the United States

By Fritz Machiup

Investigating education, research and development, communications media, information machines, and information services, the author de- scribes the allocation of human, fiscal, and natural resources in knowledge-production. The output of each field is evaluated in terms of its productivity and growth, and its contribution to the overall body of knowledge. The author's conclusions on the basis of these analyses, and his ensuing recommendations, will engender spirited discussion among educators, research scientists, and administrators.

400 pages. $7.50

____ Order from your bookstore, or 1NE1 PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS

Princeton, New Jersey

iv



One of a series briefly describing GM's research in depth

Traffic theory, driver decisions, and car performance Some problems confronting the individual in his everyday driving are beginning to be described in terms of traffic theory by scientists at the General Motors Research Laboratories.

One they have considered, for example, is the driver attempting to cross or merge into fast moving traffic. Possible ramifications: disturbances in the stability of a chain of moving vehicles resulting in rear-end collisions; growth and decay of queues on side streets or entrance ramps.

The driver's average waiting time has been derived as a function of the distribution of gaps in passing traffic and the percentage of time he would judge it safe to proceed. These parameters are highly sensitive to car performance characteristics and the nature of the driver. Experimental information, coupled with theoretical analysis, has enabled our research group to put some quantitative values on this traffic situation.

A low performance car, for instance, could easily wait ten times longer on the average for an acceptable gap in heavy density traffic than a standard high performance car. Assumption: the driver does not force on-coming drivers to decelerate.

At General Motors, such fundamental studies are giving us an insight into the complexities of real traffic behavior. They are essential back-up work to our job of providing the most efficient and safe automotive travel possible.

General Motors Research Laboratories Warren, Michigan

v



HERBERT HALBRECHT ASSOCIATES, INC. Management Counsel * Executive Recruitment

332 SOUTH MICHIGAN AVENUE CHICAGO 4, ILL. HARRISON 7-2876

CHICAGO * LOS ANGELES * NEW YORK

Specialists in recruitment and

placement at all levels . . . .

nationally 'in the fields of

OPERATIONS RESEARCH

THE MANAGEMENT SCIENCES

ELECTRONIC DATA PROCESSING

MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES

SCIENTIFIC MANAGEMENT

We welcome the opportunity of reviewing the resume of any professional who is serious in his intent to make a change. All inquiries are treated confidentially.

We will send to all respondents a list of specific employment opportunities we are currently seeking to fill throughout the United States. Also, we will furnish to him a position appraisal form which he will find helpful in objectively evaluating the various employment opportunities that are referred to him.

All of the firms with which we work pay our charges and in no case does any applicant have any financial obligation to Halbrecht Associates, Incorporated.

vi



AT # R I The accent is on thought ... on providing an excel- o00 11o l s 1 'J lent scientific environment for work and exchange

of ideas (as befits an organization controlled and directed by scientists).

The result: productive effort. ORI has doubled its business volume every year since 1956 and the expansion goes on unabated. Consequently, we have unusual opportunities for engineers and scientists interested in analyzing operational and executive decision problems in astronautics, missile systems, undersea and surface warfare, and industrial transportation systems.

You will deal with top level technical and management personnel . . . you will work on critical national problems ... your financial rewards will reflect the importance of your work and are worthy of your attention.

Write: Harvey Kushner, Director, Physical Systems Division

OPERATIONS RESEARCH INCORPORATED 8605 CAMERON STREET, SILVER SPRING, MARYLAND (RESIDENTIAL SUBURB OF WASHINGTON, D.C.) 0 AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY EMPLOYER

vii



OPERATIONS AND SYSTEMS ANALYSIS MILITARY TECHNOLOGICAL PLANNING

Aerospace developments have created senior level positions for analysts at our

MONTEREY LABORATORY PHYSICIST, STATISTICIAN, COST ANALYST with specific experience in long range plan-

ning, weapons systems analysis or cost effectiveness studies required for:

SYSTEM PERFORMANCE AND COST EFFECTIVENESS STUDIES of the integration of major subsystems into overall weapon systems.

ANALYSIS OF TOMORROW'S BROAD MILITARY MISSIONS AND ORGANIZATIONS to deter- mine the operational requirements of supporting hardware systems.

WE ARE LOCATED ON THE MONTEREY PENINSULA-one of the most desirable living and working areas in the continental United States. Just south of San Francisco, Monterey enjoys a temperate, smog-free climate year round, and offers an un- matched professional, cultural, and recreational environment.

For further information, please submit professional resume in confidence to:

Mr. W. E. Daly

LFE ELECTRONICS A DIVISION OF LABORATORY FOR ELECTRONICS, INC.

MONTEREY LABORATORY 305 WEBSTER STREET MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA

An Equal Opportunity Employer

viii



THE CALIFORNIA ANALYSIS CENTER, INC. presents

AN INTENSIVE 5-DAY COURSE ON

SI MULATION MODELING AND PROGRAMMING by means of the

SI MSCRI PT SIMULATION PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE

SIMULATION is widely used in such fields as manufacturing, logistics, economics, transportation and military operations. Unfortunately, simulation programming with conventional techniques is extremely time consuming.

SI MSCRI PT is especially designed to facilitate the writing of simulation programs. For the operations research and management science analyst, the

SIMSCRIPT language serves as a convenient notation for formulating simulation models. For the programmer, it reduces programming time severalfold as com- pared to simulations written in FORTRAN. It also permits relatively easy program modification and expansion. If the analyst and programmer are not the same

person, SIMSCRIPT greatly simplifies the problem of communication.

SIMSCRIPT translators are available for the 709/7090 computer systems and are being developed for other computers.

THE C.A.C.I. COURSE is designed to give the student a sound working

knowledge of SIMSCRIPT programming. All details of the use of the system will be presented in lectures and in supervised exercise sessions.

TEXT, SIMSCRIPT: A Simulation Programming Language, H. Markowitz, B

Hausner and H. Karr, The RAND Corporation Research Memorandum RM-3310-PR.

INSTRUCTORS, Harry M. Markowitz and Herbert W. Karr. Before joining C.A.C.l. Harry Markowitz was associated with the RAND Corporation, The General Electric Company and the Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics. Herb Karr was formerly with the RAND Corporation, The General Electric Company and the Planning Research Corporation. Both are well known for publications in various fields.

GENERAL INFORMATION Alternate Dates-March 18-22, April 8-12, April 29-May 3, 1963. Location-Santa Ynez Inn, Pacific Palisades, California. Fee-$250 including text and materials. To enroll (or for further information concerning C.A.C.I. services) write California Analysis Center, Inc., 9465 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 420-R, Beverly Hills, California.

ix



WILEY BOOKS

Kent: TEXTBOOK ON MECHANIZED INFORMATION RETRIEVAL Presents the subject in terms of unit operations involved, what each ac- complishes and their application to and implication for machine methods. Stresses human aspects and retrieval systems as a whole. An Interscience Book. I96.. z68 pages. $9.50.

Iverson: A PROGRAMMING, LANGUAGE Presents a new programming language for precise definition of algorithms. Notations from diverse fields are welded into a consistent whole and sum- marized in a I-page appendix. I962. 286 pages. $8.95.

Hunt: CONCEPT LEARNING: An Information Processing Problem The research of the psychologist, the logician, and the designer of computing machinery is discussed as it relates to the topic of concept learning, which is examined from a problem-oriented point of view. i96z. 286 pages. $7.50.

McCracken: A GUIDE TO ALGOL PROGRAMMING An easy introduction to ALGOL programming, requiring only some familiarity with mathematical notation. The book also shows what scientific computing in general is about. i96z. II2 pages. $3.95.

Dean-Sasieni-Gupta: MATHEMATICS FOR MODERN MANAGEMENT Starting with basic concepts, the book provides the mathematical tools required for the analysis of business systems and for the solution of complex management problems. i963. Approx. 456 pages. $8.5o

Pontryagin-Boltyanskii-Gamkrelidze-Mishchenko: THE MATHEMATICAL THEORY OF OPTIMAL PROCESSES

The significant feature of the theory as developed here is the maximum principle, which makes it possible to solve a number of mathematical and applied problems. An Interscience Book. x96X. 36o pages. $ii.95.

Smith-Johnson: FORTRAN AUTOTESTER A short course which gives the scientist and engineer sufficient skill, in a minimum amount of time, to program his own problems efficiently. De- signed to emancipate the scientist and engineer from the need for the professional programmer. i962.. I76 pages, $z.95

Vaida: READINGS IN MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING Representing more recent developments in the subject of mathematical programming, this is an expandededition of the author's famous Readings in Linear Programming. i96z. I30 pages, $4.X5

Bartlett: ESSAYS ON PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS A consistent and comprehensive view of statistical theory, no matter in what field it is applied. i96z. IZ7 pages. $4.50

send now for on-approval copies

JOHN WILEY & SONS, Inc. 440 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, NEW YORK 16, N. Y.

x



This is Webster's definition Of VALOR. TO TECH/OPS Syste-m Scientists VALOR means something different ...* the project name for a new partially automated war game . .. designed to assist the Air Force to examine its role in limited wars ine any area of the world with any strength of force and with any interface of AireForce,tArmy and Navy units. Webster's Ddefinition and TECH/OPS' project name are not far apart. The VALOR game will provide substantial assistance to Air Force planners in making the key decisions needed "sto encounter danger with firmness."n If you would like to be part of a key group whose work has a direct impact on military planners we would like to hear from you. Positions are available for operations analysts and computer' programmers in military operations research, highly complex computerized global' air war battles, satellite communications studies, two-sided map war games, and very sophisticated global command and control -systems.

JA Pierce Jenkins, 3600 Mm Street, N. W., Washinnto., -D. Co.

TECHNICAL OPERATIONS Research An Equal Opportunity Employer

xi



Operations Research Society of America 1962-1963

OFFICERS OF THE SOCIETY

HUGH J. MISER, President ALEXANDER M. MOOD, Vice-President The MITRE Corporation C-E-I-R, Inc. Box 208 9171 Wilshire Boulevard Bedford, Mass. Beverly Hills; California

GORDON D. SHELLARD, Secretary JOHN E. WALSH, Treasurer New York Life Insurance Co. System Development Corporation 51 Madison Avenue 2500 Colorado Avenue New York 10, N. Y. Santa Monica, California

COUNCIL OF THE SOCIETY 1961-63 Past President, MARTIN L. ERNST, Arthur D. Little, Inc., 35 Acorn Park,

Cambridge 40, Massachusetts 1962-64 Past President, MERRILL M. FLOOD, Mental Health Research Institute, Uni-

versity of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan

1960-63 GEORGE E. KIMBALL GEORGE SHORTLEY Arthur D. Little, Inc. Booz-Allen Applied Research Inc., 35 Acorn Park 4815 Rugby Avenue Cambridge 40, Massachusetts Bethesda 14, Maryland

1961-64 C. WEST CHURCHMAN EDWIN W. PAXSON School of Business Admin. The Rand Corporation University of California 1700 Main Street Berkeley 4, California Santa Monica, California

1962-65 ROGER R. CRANE ANDREW W. MARSHALL Touche, Ross, Bailey & Smart The Rand Corporation 80 Pine Street 1700 Main Street New York 5, New York Santa Monica, California

CHAIRMEN OF STANDING COMMITTEES Membership' Committee Education Committee

LESLIE C. EDIE GIFFORD H. SYMONDS Port of New York Authority Case Institute of Technology 111 Eighth Avenue University Circle New York 11, N. Y. Cleveland 6, Ohio

Publications Committee Nominating Committee ROBERT E. MACHOL PAUL D. BIRKHAHN

Conductron Corporation The Atlantic Refining Company 343 S. Main Street 260 South Broad Street Ann Arbor, Michigan Philadelphia 1, Pennsylvania

CHAIRMEN OF OTHER COMMITTEES Lanchester Prize Committee Representative to IFORS

MARTIN L. ERNST MARTIN L. ERNST

National Problems Committee Representative to the NRC WILLIAM PLATT (EORGE SHORTLEY

Sections Committee Representatives to the AAAS LOUIS P. CLARK GLEN D. CAMP

ROBERT DORFMAN

Meetings Committee PAUL STILLSON Stillson Assoc.

8445 Tobias Rd. Panorama City, Calif.

xii



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