Future Flooding and Coastal Erosion Risks

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Future ooding andcoastal erosion risks

Edited by

Colin R. Thorne, Edward P. Evansand Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell


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Published by Thomas Telford Publishing, Thomas Telford Ltd, 1 Heron Quay, London E14 4JD.www.thomastelford.com

Distributors for Thomas Telford books areUSA: ASCE Press, 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, VA 20191-4400Japan: Maruzen Co. Ltd, Book Department, 310 Nihonbashi 2-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103Australia: DA Books and Journals, 648 Whitehorse Road, Mitcham 3132, Victoria

First published 2007

Also available from Thomas Telford BooksFlood Risk Management . Edited by G. Fleming. ISBN 0 7277 3112 3Coastal Defence ICE Design and Practice Guide . Institution of Civil Engineers. ISBN 0 7277 3005 3

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN: 978-0-7277-3449-5

# Queens Printer and Controller of HMSO 2007Copyright in the typographical arrangement and design vests in the Crown

Published under licence for the Department of Trade and Industry

Applications for reproduction should be made in writing to:The Licensing Division, Her Majestys Stationery Office, St Clements House, 216 Colegate, NorwichNR3 1BQ

The contents of this publication is for information purposes only. The Crown accepts no liability for loss ordamage of any kind howsoever arising as a result of actions taken in reliance on information contained inthis publication.

All rights, includingtranslation,reserved.Except as permittedby the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988,no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or byany means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior written permission of thePublishing Director, Thomas Telford Publishing, Thomas Telford Ltd, 1 Heron Quay, London E14 4JD.

This book is publishedon the understanding that theauthorsare solelyresponsible for the statementsmadeand opinions expressed in it and that its publication does not necessarily imply that such statements and/oropinions are or reect the views or opinions of the publishers. While every effort has been made to ensurethat the statements made and the opinions expressed in this publication provide a safe and accurate guide,no liability or responsibility can be accepted in this respect by the authors or publishers.

Typeset by Academic Technical, BristolPrinted and bound in Great Britain by MPG Books, Bodmin, Cornwall


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Contents

Dedication x

Preface Professor Sir David King xi

List of contributors xiii

Part 1 Introduction

1 Overview 3Edward P. Evans, Jim W. Hall, Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell and Colin R. Thorne

The task we have undertaken 3The evolving policy context 4The science and technology backdrop 5Flood impacts and policy change 6New directions in risk analysis 8

Scenario analysis 9Post-project perspective 10References 11

2 Introduction to the Foresight Future Flooding methodology 13Jim W. Hall, Jonathan D. Simm and Edward P. Evans

Overview 13Conceptual framework 15Scenario analysis 18Quantied ood risk assessment 22Quantied analysis of responses 24Expert analysis of drivers 24Expert analysis of responses to ood risk 25Discussion 26References 27

3 Environmental impacts of future ood risk 29Andrew R. Watkinson, Robert J. Nicholls, David A. Searand Laure Ledoux

Introduction 29Environmental impacts of ood management 30Environmental impacts of changes in ooding 33

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Implications of current trends of change in ood management for theenvironment 36Foresight futures and the environment 37Environmental economics 41Conclusions 44Acknowledgements 44References 44

Part 2 Drivers of ood risk

4 Climate change 49Nick S. Reynard

Introduction 49Precipitation 49Temperature 50Evapotranspiration 50Changes in precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration 50Estimating the effects of climate change on ooding 56Uncertainty 59Conclusions 61References 62

5 Catchment land-use 64Joe Morris and Howard Wheater

Introduction 64Rural land-use management 65Urbanisation 68Agricultural impacts 70Driver interactions 75Driver behaviour under possible future scenarios 77Conclusions 79References 80

6 River processes 82Stuart N. Lane and C.R. Thorne

Introduction 82Morphology and sediment supply 83Conveyance 89Environment, ecosystems and habitats 93Case example: sediment delivery, morphological response and ood risk 96Conclusions 97

References 98

7 Human behaviour 100David J. Ball and Colin H. Green

Introduction 100The human behaviour drivers 102Stakeholder behaviour 104Public attitudes and expectations 106Forecasting the effect of the human behaviour drivers on ood risk 112Concluding remarks 114References 114

Contents

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8 Socio-economic drivers, cities and science 116Colin H. Green and Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell

Introduction 116Social impacts 116Economic and sectoral impacts 119

Urban impacts 123Infrastructure impacts 126Science and technology 128Conclusions 130References 130

9 Coastal processes 132Claire Hinton, Ian H. Townend and Robert J. Nicholls

Introduction 132Coastal process driver set 132Future risk of coastal ooding 146References 147

10 Urban change 149Adrian J. Saul and Richard M. Ashley

Background 149The extent of the urban ooding 150Flood mechanisms in the intra-urban zone 151Primary ood mechanisms 151Secondary factors that increase or reduce ooding risk 154Summary of factors that inuence urban ood risk 156Identication of relevant drivers 156Driver ranking and uncertainty 156Quantied ood risk intra-urban 161

Future research needs 168Summary 168References 169

11 Other ood risks and their drivers 173Stuart N. Lane

Groundwater ooding in permeable catchments 173Muddy oods 180Floods related to infrastructure and ordinary water courses outsideindicative oodplains 182References 183

12 Driver impact scoring, ranking and uncertainty 185Jonathan D. Simm, Colin R. Thorne and Jim W. Hall

Introduction 185Driver impacts on local ood risk 186National driver impact scores 192Ranking driver impacts on future ood risk 193Uncertainty assessment 197Reconciliation of driver scores with the results of quantitativeassessment of ood risk drivers 202Concluding remarks 204References 205

Contents

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Part 3 Assessment of drivers and risks

13 Quantitative assessment of driver impacts on future ood risk inEngland and Wales 209Jim W. Hall, Paul B. Sayers, Mike Panzeri and Robert Deakin

Introduction 209Overview of the methodology 210Methods for scenario-based future ood risk assessment 212Results for the present situation 214Results for future scenarios 216The inuence of global emissions on future ood risk 223Conclusions 225References 225

14 Driver impacts in Scotland 227Alan Werritty

Introduction 227Climate change 228Catchment land-use 230River processes 232Coastal processes 233Human behaviour 236Socio-economics 238Ranking of drivers 239References 242

15 Driver impacts in Northern Ireland 244John Chatterton and Stuart Suter

Background to ood risk in Northern Ireland 244Climate change 252River processes 255Coastal processes and climate change 258Socio-economic drivers 260Closure 262References 263

Part 4 Coastal erosion drivers and risks

16 Drivers of coastal erosion 267Kevin Burgess, Helen Jay and Robert J. Nicholls

Introduction 267

Drivers natural morphology and processes 268Drivers human intervention 270Drivers climate change 273Case studies 274References 279

17 Assessment of future coastal erosion risk 280Kevin Burgess, Helen Jay, Robert J. Nicholls, Colin Greenand Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell

Introduction 280Rates of change 280

Contents

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Coastal defence 287The economic impacts of coastal erosion 289References 292

Part 5 Responses to future ood and coastal erosion risks

18 Managing the rural landscape 297Stuart N. Lane, Joe Morris, P. Edna OConnell and Paul F. Quinn

Introduction 297Management of inltration 298Catchment-wide storage 305Management of hillslope and river conveyance 311Conclusions 315References 317

19 Responses to future intra-urban ood risks 320Richard M. Ashley and Adrian J. Saul

Introduction 320The potential responses 320Response groups and effectiveness 321Quantication of responses 329Sustainability assessment 334References 338

20 Flood event management 340Sue Tapsell and David Ball

Introduction 340Data collection 341Response measures for managing ood events 342

Real-time ood forecasting and warning dissemination 343Flood ghting: actions to manage ood waters and defences duringthe event 345Collective-scale damage-avoidance actions: evacuation of oodplainsand coastal areas at risk 347Individual-scale damage-avoidance actions: temporary ood proongand moving of assets at risk to safety 348Potential application of measures to future scenarios 349Sustainability issues 353Future uncertainty 357Conclusions 357References 358

21 Reducing ood losses 360Nigel W. Arnell and John Chatterton

Introduction: A classication of approaches 360Facilitating recovery from loss: insurance and public relief 360Spatial planning for reducing ood losses 363Flood-proong and building standards 367Implications for future national ood losses 369Sustainability appraisal of measures to reduce ood losses 372Conclusions 373References 373

Contents

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Sustainability implications of responses to ood risk 462Cost-effectiveness 465Environmental quality 468Social justice 471Decisions today for future sustainability 472References 473

27 The Governance of responses 475Andrew R. Watkinson, Sarah E. Cornell and Andrew Jordan

Introduction 475Governance in the future 477Governance options for a portfolio approach 484Obstacles and opportunities 484References 487

Part 8 Synthesis

28 Strategic choices 491Andrew R. Watkinson, Edward P. Evans, Jim W. Hall,Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell and Colin R. Thorne

Introduction 491Options for managing ood risk 491A route map for ood management 495Building a portfolio of responses 500Conclusion 503References 504

Index 505

Contents

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Dedicated to

Elieen, Pia and Jacky

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Preface

I am delighted to provide a preface to this publication on the research that lay behindthe important and highly inuential Foresight Future Flooding Report, published intwo volumes in 2004.

Flooding is an issue that affects us all. Over 200 billion worth of assets are at riskaround British rivers and coasts and those risks are likely to increase over the next 100years due to changes in climate and society. In 2002 I therefore commissioned theForesight Project on Flood and Coastal Defence to address a number of issuessurrounding how the ood risk might change and how government and the privatesector might best respond to the future challenges. The report that emerged hadseveral key messages for government ood risk would continue to rise to unaccep-table levels; those risks had to be tackled on a broad front and hard choices wouldhave to be made regarding where to direct investment. This work established a newparadigm for futures work and, with the issues of ooding and ood preventioncontinuing to be in the headlines worldwide, it rightly continues to command wide-spread interest.

This book is edited by three of the team who undertook the original Foresightstudy and elaborates on the work undertaken by approximately 60 leading expertsin the eld, over 20 months between 2002 to 2004. A great deal of work wasnecessary to produce the evidence base that underpins the Future Flooding Report.However, the published documents contain only brief summaries of the deep descrip-tions, quantitative analyses and risk models developed and applied in the study. It istherefore most welcome that Thomas Telford have published this monograph as adetailed record of the science and engineering research performed during the Fore-sight Project on Flood and Coastal Defence.

The UK government fully appreciates the threats posed by ooding and is alreadysupporting cutting-edge techniques and policies for managing ood risk. It is invest-ing heavily in research to develop new and innovative approaches to ood riskmanagement, based on applying holistic principles and achieving sustainableoutcomes. However, the government is not complacent and recognises that moreneeds to be done. At the conclusion of the Foresight Project in 2004, the Ministerwith responsibility for ood management acknowledged the important role thatthe results of that research would play in preparing a government-wide strategyfor managing the risks of ooding and coastal erosion. In order to capitalise onthe knowledge gained during the study, he therefore established a Flood ActionPlan, which is on-going. It involves all the relevant branches of government ane example of how scientic evidence can be used to inform better policy decisions.

Of course, the benets of taking a long-term and far-sighted approach to ood riskmanagement in a changing world are not unique to the UK. There has been a greatdeal of international interest in the Foresight model the Foresight team have had

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some very useful discussions with interested parties from the Netherlands, Japan, theUSA and India, and there have also been Foresight Future Flooding missions toChina and Russia.

Clearly, the work begun with the Foresight Flooding Project has not ended but willcontinue in the coming years and decades, both in the UK and overseas. The issuescovered by the Foresight study are likely to assume increasing importance as weenter an era of climate change, economic growth and societal evolution. Thisvolume will therefore be a valuable resource to scientists, engineers and a widerange of stakeholders who share a common concern for ood risk managementand an interest in evidence-based policy making.

Sir David KingGovernment Chief Scientic Adviser

June 2006

Preface

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List of contributors

Nigel W. Arnell Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Geography, University of Southampton, Southampton,Hampshire SO17 1BJ

Richard M. Ashley Pennine Water Group, Department of Civil and StructuralEngineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 3JD

David Ball Centre for Decision Analysis and Risk Management,Middlesex University, Eneld, London EN3 4SA

Kevin Burgess Halcrow, Burderop Park, Swindon, Wiltshire SN4 0QD

John Chatterton John Chatterton Associates, 32 Windermere Road, Moseley,Birmingham B13 9JP

Nick J. Cooper ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd, Suite B,Waterside House, Southampton, Hampshire SO14 2AQNow, Royal Haskoning, Marlborough Crescent,Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 4EE

Sarah E. Cornell Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1RJ

Rob Deakin Halcrow, Burderop Park, Swindon, Wiltshire SN4 0QD

Edward P. Evans Bevis, Great Somerford, Chippenham, WiltshireSN15 5JA

Colin H. Green Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University,Eneld, London EN3 4SA

Jim W. Hall School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU

Claire Hinton ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd, Suite B,Waterside House, Southampton, Hampshire SO14 2AQ

Helen Jay Halcrow, Burderop Park, Swindon, Wiltshire SN4 0QD

Andrew Jordan School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia,Norwich, Norfolk NR4 7TJ

Stuart N. Lane Department of Geography, University of Durham, DurhamDH1 3LE

Peter H. von Lany Halcrow, Burderop Park, Swindon, Wiltshire SN4 0QD

Laure Ledoux Environmental Futures, 54 Rue Jean Baptiste Esch L1473,Luxembourg

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Joe Morris Institute of Water and Environment, Craneld University,Silsoe, Bedfordshire MK45 4DT

Robert J. Nicholls Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of CivilEngineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire SO17 1BJ

P. Enda OConnell School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU

John Palmer Halcrow, Burderop Park, Swindon, Wiltshire SN4 OQD

Mike Panzeri HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Wallingford, OxfordshireOX10 8BA

Edmund C. Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University,Penning-Rowsell Eneld, London EN3 4SA

Paul F. Quinn School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU

Nick S. Reynard Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire

OX10 8BBAdrian J. Saul Pennine Water Group, Department of Civil and Structural

Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 3JD

Paul B. Sayers HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Wallingford, OxfordshireOX10 8BA

David A. Sear School of Geography, University of Southampton,Southampton, Hampshire SO17 1BJ

Jonathan D. Simm HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Wallingford, OxfordshireOX10 8BA

Stuart Suter Halcrow, Burderop Park, Swindon, Wiltshire SN4 0QD

Sue Tapsell Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University,Eneld, London EN3 4SA

Colin R. Thorne School of Geography, University of Nottingham, UniversityPark, Nottingham NG7 2RD

Robert Tinch Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Schools of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of EastAnglia, Norwich, Norfolk NR4 7TJ

Ian H. Townend ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd, Suite B,Waterside House, Southampton, Hampshire SO14 2AQNow, Hydraulics Research Wallingford Ltd, Howbery Park,Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BA

Andrew R. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Schools of Watkinson Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of East

Anglia, Norwich, Norfolk NR4 7TJ

Alan Werritty Department of Geography, University of Dundee, DundeeDD1 4HN

Howard Wheater Imperial College London, South Kensington, LondonSW7 2AZ

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List of contributors


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this curious behaviour (Anon., 2005). Hence, even in the presence of a seeminglydeterministic system, uncertainties are present and estimating these constitutes animportant element of any study including the Foresight one.

However, while the above classical worldview, which some call the RationalAction Worldview (or Paradigm, hence RAP ) (Jaeger et al ., 2001), is more or less ataken-for-granted of Western thought and provides the foundation for a widevariety of institutions markets, governments, international security, industrialmanagement, healthcare it is not the only conceivable theoretical approach.Indeed, behavioural and social science usually has more modest, or at leastdifferent, ambitions, recognising that human behaviour is a rather complex busi-ness and subject to inuence by a vast array of factors, only some of which areamenable to deterministic-style forecasting (Eiser, 2004).

Thus, the world is taken to exist out there whereas the social science approachboth tends to see the world as being constructed and as being constructed throughhuman interaction. From this viewpoint, oods are not simply extreme physicalevents inicting themselves upon innocent and unsuspecting people, but highlyinteractive processes that involve inputs from both nature and society. As such, thevery denition of a ood becomes problematic. Within this framing, such complex

systems are arguably more readily analysed by recourse to alternative sociologicalmodels, some of which are located in Fig. 7.1, but these could not be expected toproduce the kinds of outputs demanded by the Foresight methodology. This gurecan be contrasted to the models presented elsewhere in this volume.

For this reason, while bearing in mind the inevitable shortcomings of any model,an attempt was made to fashion an approach which would lend itself to Foresightas originally envisaged by its designers. In particular, in each of the four scenariosadopted in the Foresight study, the social scientist is inclined to the view that eachthen determines how oods will be understood, how decisions will be made, andhow the ood risk will be managed. Thus, concepts such as vulnerability and

Reflexivemodernisation Systems

theory

Post-moderntheories

Individualistic Structural

Constructivist

Objective Non-Marxist &critical theory

Rational actor concept

Organisationaltheory

Culturaltheory

Fig. 7.1. Renn (1994) has classied the major sociological perspectives on risk according to their anchorage in a) an individualistic versus structural dimensionand b) an objectivist versus constructivist dimension. The Rational Actor Paradigm of the Foresight programme inhabits the bottom left (individualistic-objective) quadrant of this classication

Human behaviour

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risk will be dened uniquely by each society in different ways. Rather than itbeing possible to dene such terms as vulnerability, risk and uncertainty in ontolo-gical terms, they must then be understood epistemologically.

So, for example, a probability is a claim as to what we can know and how orwhy we can know it, and a claim which can properly be expressed in terms consis-tent with Kolmogorovs mathematics of probability. In that there are competingtheories of probability, there are different claims as to what we can know and thebasis upon which we can know it. In short, if we could determine which form of society would exist, then there would be no choices left to make except in that eachsociety would be faced with resolving its own internal contradictions. Similarly, thedistinction between society and technology should be regarded a false dichotomy.

The human behaviour drivers

With the above important caveat in mind, human behaviour was deemed for thepurposes of this study to comprise two drivers, denoted as stakeholder behaviourand public preferences (attitudes and expectations). These were dened as follows.

Stakeholder behaviour Stakeholders include any group, cohesive or dispersed, with a direct or indirectinterest or inuence on ood risk and its management. The public is clearly animportant stakeholder but is not seen as having a single opinion. Stakeholder beha-viour, expert or lay, is seen as motivated by numerous factors besides risk. Theseinclude beliefs, values, ways of working, and perceived fairness of decisionprocesses.

Public attitudes and expectationsIn line with cultural theory (Douglas, 1985; Schwarz and Thompson, 1990) thepublic is not regarded as a single entity with one position on matters related toood risk. Attitudes and expectations are seen to be determined by multiple factorsincluding actual and perceived risk, equity concerns, issues of process (i.e. themeans and manner by which risk management decisions are made) and world view.

It is self-evident that these drivers are closely inter-related. The public has beensingled out as one stakeholder group in terms of its preferences, and is clearly onecontributor to stakeholder behaviour overall, which will be driven partly by publicpreferences. Social impacts (see Chapter 8) will clearly inuence preferences, especiallythose of the public, and hence behaviour. Other stakeholder groups farming, insur-ance, etc. will have their own strong preferences too. Because the ways in which thelivelihoods of these latter communities are linked with ood risk management arebetter dened, it may be expected, though is not guaranteed, that their preferenceswill be less diverse within their own group than those of the public at large.

This framing positions people and groups as though they were physicalphenomena to be taken into account in decision making. But people differ fromphysical phenomena in two key aspects. First, people are the decision makers; it isout of the cognitions and relationships between individuals and groups that deci-sions will emerge. Second, if research is about learning, when the researcher seeksto learn about the physical world the physical world does not learn anything aboutthe researcher. But when the researcher seeks to learn about the social world, thepeople studied are changed to a greater or lesser extent by the experience.

Hence, the main impact of these drivers upon ood risk is likely to be by way of their inuence upon other actors, such as regulators. Thus there will be strong feed-back loops, e.g. between stakeholder behaviour and regulation and other drivers.Regulators will be tuned in to stakeholder behaviour and public expectations in

Drivers of ood risk

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deciding on risk management interventions. But stakeholder behaviour and publicexpectations will in turn be inuenced by the ways in which regulators makechoices, as well as actual choices made. In turn, the roles of individuals andgroups, and the inter-relations between them, are both dened by and dene thesociety and can be taken to reect the worldview of that society.

The concept of regulators is itself predicated upon the existence of a particularform of society, being most closely associated with the form of society dened asnational enterprise. In the world markets model, with its emphasis upon both themarket and individualism, and a desire to minimise the scope of government, theemphasis would be on the use of prices and formal regulation would be minimised.Under the purist form of cultural theory (Adams, 1995), once the nature of thesociety is determined, there are no choices left to make.

Overall feedback is thus strong, complicated, and perhaps even unfathomable.Furthermore, the stakeholder groups that have the most inuence upon regulatorydecisions, and who are therefore most likely to feel enfranchised and thereforesatised, will vary from one Foresight scenario to another, though not in a simpleor predictable way. This is because it is as much the ne structure of the scenarioswhich will be important as their broad brush nature. Self-interest, beliefs, (dis-)

satisfaction and ways of working will provide the energy to drive the stakeholderbehaviour-regulation cycle, and this energy will in turn be topped up by, amongother things, that stakeholder group denoted as the public in the driver listing.Public preferences will in turn be fuelled as much if not more by perception of theregulatory process than the actual risk, and this in its turn will be fed by otherdrivers such as institutions, science, engineering and technology and riskcompensation and insurance through their attitudes to the public and the publicsthen view of their rights to involvement and say in regulatory choice.

In view of the large number of stakeholders, there are inevitably other kinds of stakeholder behaviour which will impinge on other drivers. Agricultural practices,for example, could clearly have a big impact on runoff. Similarly, the insuranceindustry can be regarded as a separate player or the actions of the insuranceindustry can be understood in relation to the actions of other players (Green andPenning-Rowsell, 2004). Notably, ooding is seen as uninsurable risk exceptthrough some form of publicprivate partnership (Gaschen et al ., 1998).

Likewise, the behaviour of the insurance sector an essentially free market willhave an effect on what is demanded of ood risk managers. Already there is specula-tion that the insurance sector, faced with rising ood-related claims, might opt fornovel risk-transfer or hedging instruments such as catastrophe bonds which transferthe risks to global capital markets (Linnerooth-Bayer and Amendola, 2003).

Mitchell (2003) gives the following salutary example of the complexity of stake-holder behavioural impacts, this in the context of the selection of port locations forindustries:

. . . the burgeoning emphasis on port locations for industries is facilitatedby changes in a complex web of factors that includes, among other things,marine transportation, navigation, and dredging technologies; shipboardlabor practices; vessel registration and regulation rules; the acquisition of new electronic skills by mariners; the protability of the shippingindustry; and the state of competition between different transportationmodes. In turn these components are embedded in a dominant consumer-oriented economy that is made possible by uid supplies of investmentcapital and preferences for entrepreneurial risk-taking, coupled withprecisely segmented and targeted marketing strategies that rely on vastquantities of timely and comprehensive information about consumertastes and surplus income.

Human behaviour

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Index

Page numbers in italics refer to diagrams and illustrations. The abbreviationWM/NE/LS/GS refers to the world markets, national enterprise, local stewardship andglobal sustainability scenarios of the Foresight Future Flooding Project.

above-ground storageintra-urban ood management 326, 327

WM/NE/LS/GS 337 sustainability 327types 326, 327

afforestationcatchment run-off 67ood damage 71ood risk adjustments 302

agri-environmental schemes 299,303 304

agriculturesee also afforestation; rural land

management; rural land-usebuffer strips 301 302coastal grazing marshes 32, 36, 40, 41crop sensitivity 71 72drivers 70 71, 197farm management practices 299 300eld drainage 67, 301ooding economics 73 75impact

Northern Ireland 250 251Scotland 232

land drainage 251, 300 301livestock management 300ploughing times 299soil ooding impact 73 75tillage regimes 300water table depths 72 73WM/NE/LS/GS damage projections 222 ,

223, 455annual average damage 188, 210aquifers 177, 178

bank erosion, rivers and streams 301beaches

future unstability 287regeneration 397, 398

shingle nourisment 397, 398stabilisation

breakwaters 271, 272groynes 271, 271

below-ground storageintra-urban ood management 326 327

WM/NE/LS/GS 337 types 326 327

breakwaters, as coastal defences 396, 396 ,397

Brunn Rule, coastal erosion 284buffer strips 301 302buildings

design, ood risk management 321 322ood proong 367 368roof drainage 322stormwater storage 322sustainability, WM/NE/LS/GS 335temporary ood measures 349

catchments 64drivers

rankings 194 197Scottish 239 240

and future ood risks 77 79storage 308 309

and conveyance management313 314

governance 307impoundments 306 307ponds, bunds and ditches 306sustainability 307 308uncertainty 309 311wetlands and washlands 306

WM/NE/LS/GS uncertainties 199 201charitable relief, ood losses 362cliff erosion 272

hard-rock 277, 277 as sediment provider 272

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climate changeand coastal defences 287 288and coastal erosion 273 274, 284 287,

286

controlling, implications 494 495and emissions 223, 224 , 457

evapotranspiration rates 55 56, 56 and ooding frequency 56 57, 58 , 59, 218,219

as ooding source 496 497precipitation 19, 51, 53 55, 164scenarios 18 20, 18 , 19Scottish drivers 239 240and sea levels 5, 19temperatures 19and urban ooding 155vegetative growth 258

coastal defences 392see also storm surgesbeaches

regeneration 397, 398stabilisation 271, 271 , 272

breakwaters, offshore 396, 396 , 397by energy reduction 396 397

sustainability 408 409by morphological protection 402 404and climate change 287 288costs 394current expenditure 284dune stabilisation 271 272environmental implications 399, 468 469failure, overtopping 393 394, 393 , 394future investments 288 289, 289

geomorphological engineering 402 403glacial sediment beaches 275, 275interactions 395and land values 468lifespan 289maintenance 394 395man-made 269morphological protection 402 404, 469

sustainability 408 409Northern Ireland 247 248re-alignments

managed 399 402, 410, 469sustainability 408 409transport implications 400 401

reclaimed land 278, 278reduction implications 399 400renewable energy production 396,

398 399, 410 411response groups

effectiveness 407 410WM/NE/LS/GS 404 407

responsibilities for 394saltmarsh regeneration 398Scotland 394shingle beaches 276, 276 sustainability 408 409

coastal erosionBrunn Rule 284cliffs 272and climate change 273 274, 284 287,

286

and coastal morphology 268 270

current shoreline changes 280 282, 281economic impacts 289 292, 290hard-rock cliffs 277, 277 hotspots 291 292impact of 32and land values 290Northern Ireland 259 260and sea levels 285 287shoreline changes, shoreline 282 284storm surges 268wave action 268WM/NE/LS/GS

drivers 270rates 285 287, 286 , 290 291, 290

coastal oodingconcentrations of 215 216driver rankings 193 196evacuation 347 348and morphology 146Northern Ireland 247 248, 260 261perceived risks from 384risk reduction, social justice 471 472sustainability responses 462 463, 465 466urban inundation 153WM/NE/LS/GS

projections 218, 223uncertainties 199 201

coastal grazing marshes 32, 36loss of 40, 41 , 469coastal morphology 143 144

and coastal erosion 268 270future uncertainty 145, 146and sea levels 144 145sediment supply 144 145WM/NE/LS/GS sensitivity 269 270

coastal processes, Scottish drivers 240 241coastal squeeze, estuaries 33, 273coincident ooding, cost per property,

future 331communal solidarity

ood event management 353and natural disasters 117

Community Flood Log Books 343community funding, ood-proong 349computational hydraulic modelling,

development 5conveyance see river conveyance

domestic lossesassets 349minimising 349property, expected annual damage

329 330

Index

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WM/NE/LS/GS 119 120 , 121sewerage causes 165 166storms 165 166

drainagesee also eld drainage; sewersform, maintenance and operations,

WM/NE/LS/GS 338inltration, groundwater table levels325 326

drivers 16analysis of 24 25catchment rankings 194 197classications 17 , 25coastal ooding rankings 193 196impacts on local ood risks 186 191public attitudes as 190ranking compilation 189reconciled future impact 202 204science and technology 190 191uncertainty sources 197 199WM/NE/LS/GS

multipliers 191 193rankings 193 197

dune stabilisation 271 272

economic impacts, coastal erosion 289 292,290

economic output, denitions 128 129ecosystems

see also environmentsas dened user groups 93 94ood management impact 31protected habitats 94 95

within uvial systems 34 35emissions, and climate change 223, 224 , 457environments

see also ecosystems; environments byname

agri-environment schemes 299coastal defences 399, 468 469economics 41 44ood risk impacts 30 33, 94intra-urban ood management 470 471regulatory changes 94, 95 96uncertainties within 95 96WM/NE/LS/GS scenarios 38 40, 41 , 95 96

estuariescoastal grazing marshes 32, 36, 40, 41coastal squeeze 33, 273land reclamation 31 32morphological modications to 272 273,

273

evacuation 347 348, 351decision making 348

evapotranspiration rates 50, 55 56, 56 extreme event management 324 325

farming see agriculturefatalities, and ood risks 118

fauna, river entrainment 233eld drainage 67, 301ood damage

current estimates 215 216denitions 187 188economics 187, 212

estimates 6, 188social vulnerability 212WM/NE/LS/GS

agricultural production 222 , 223,455

estimated annual 452 453 , 455projections 218, 221

ood defencessee also coastal defences; river defencescosts 383failure probability 211and ood risk assessments 211Foresight Futures Project, cost estimates

441future investment costs 456 457intertidal area reduction 31 32and land values 468reclaimed land 278, 278reliance on 4 5and shoreline movement 282 284Standard of Protection 211technical basis for 5traditional 315 316

ood event managementdata sources 341evacuation 347 348, 351ood ghting

temporary measures 348 349water-level control structures345 347

forecasting 343 344, 351funding 345governance 345information dissemination 343 345responses 344 345

global sustainability scenario 352governance 345, 485local stewardship 353national enterprise scenario 351 352pre-event 342

planning 342 343public awareness raising 342 343risk logbooks 343risk maps 343sustainability 354, 354

sustainability issuesood defence schemes 354, 355oodplain evacuation 356 , 357forecasting 354, 355pre-event 354, 354temporary ood proong 356 , 357

uncertainties 357world markets scenario 350 351

Index

507


22/28

ood insurance 360 361, 481 482, 481future 369 370, 482 483international aspects 361provision 361 362public charitable relief 362sector, as stakeholders 103

self- 362 363state aid/compensation 362ood losses

see also ood insurance; ood reductiondomestic 349

expected annual damage 329 330minimising 349WM/NE/LS/GS 119 120 , 121, 165 166

governance 486ood mapping 5ood plans, family and community 343ood proong, retro-tting 367 368ood reduction

future measures, effectiveness 370 372policies 363 364, 370social justice 471 472spatial planning 363 364sustainability 372 373, 372through planning controls 364 366WM/NE/LS/GS 369, 371

ood return periods, Northern Ireland256 258, 257

ood risk assessments 22 23, 23data availability 211, 212 213defences failures 211and ood defences 211and ood risk management 213 214

oodplain areas 214 215, 215

methodology 210 , 211, 225ood risk management

costs, future 491 494ecosystems, impact 31environmental impacts 30 33, 38 41evolution of 4, 6 7expected annual damage, WM/NE/LS/GS

452 453 , 455and ood risk assessments 213 214Foresight Futures Project, responses

437 440and insurance 483Northern Ireland 244, 248 250policies 36 37, 93reduction responses

defence engineering 418 419interdependance 419 420methodology 416 417multipliers 417 419sustainability analysis 426 429, 429urban fabric 418 419WM/NE/LS/GS rankings 421 423WM/NE/LS/GS uncertainties 423 426

response mechanisms 496adaptability 499 500

governance 501 503portfolio 500 501time factors 498 499

rivers 381 382costs 382 383governance 382

proportionate responses 383 384Scotland 227 228, 233, 236 237sustainability 37, 237WM/NE/LS/GS 109

ood riskssee also coastal oodingafforestation 302as annual average damage 188, 210changes to 17denitions 16, 210fatalities, potential 118future projections 112 113, 123intangible 118 119, 118low income groups 117mapping 343morphology 82multipliers 188 189Northern Ireland 246 247, 248, 260, 261 ,

262 263public attitudes 102 103quantied analysis 24responses to 25 26rivers

future increases 384 385WM/NE/LS/GS multipliers 385 386

social impacts 116 117and temperatures 50

WM/NE/LS/GS 78 79, 191 193, 216ood storage, rivers 378 379ood victims

fatalities 118social support 119

ood waves, urban 152ood-water transfer, rivers 379 380ooding frequencies

changes 53 54, 54and climate change 56 57, 58 , 59, 218,

219

ooding systemschanges in 15 17denitions 15, 16instantaneous states 16risk estimates 17, 17

oodplainssee also washlandsagricultural management on 67 68classications 215, 215evacuation 347 348ood risks

assessments 22 23, 214 215, 215social vulnerability 445

inundationexpected annual damage 444 445

Index

508


23/28

expected annual probability 444,446 447 , 450

land-use in 215Northern Ireland 246, 246 populations

changes in 218, 444, 445

ooding risk exposure 444, 448 449 ,451WM/NE/LS/GS 442 443 , 445

reversion to 469 470storm surge vulnerability 139urbanisation 7, 69, 497 498WM/NE/LS/GS population vulnerability

216, 217 , 218uvial systems

see also estuaries; riversdriver impacts 197ecosystems within 34 35modulation of ow 31morphological changes within 33 34

forecastingood events 343 344, 351

funding 345governance 345information dissemination 343 345responses 344 345

Foresight Futures Projectcosts of implementing 436ood risk management, responses

437 440methodology 13, 14scenario-based approach 9 10, 21socio-economic scenarios 20 22, 20

sociological aspects 100 102, 101

structural responses, cost estimates 441target defence condition grades 435target standards of protection 433 434,

436, 492 494uncertainties within 26 27

future investments, coastal defences288 289, 289

Geographical Information System (GIS) 5geomorphological engineering, coastal

defences 402 403glacial sediments, coastal erosion 275, 275global sustainability scenario

see also Foresight Futures Projectcoastal defence responses 405, 406cooperation 352environmental impact 38 40, 41 , 95 96ood event management 352ood risks

management 384reduction 422 423

future ood risks 78 79, 191 193, 216summaries 21 22

governancecatchment storage 307

denitions 475 477ood events 345, 485ood losses 486ood risk management

costs of 480 482, 481response mechanisms 501 503

rivers 382, 486framework of 479 480, 480history 478 479inltration 302 303response portfolios 484rivers, conveyance 312rural land management 316 317, 316 ,

484urbanisation 484 485WM/NE/LS/GS 414 416, 477 478

policy response themes 415 416,484 485

greenhouse gas emissions, future 18, 18greenspaces, in ood management 323,

470groundwater

aquifers 177, 178denitions 174ooding 50, 176future uncertainties 179intra-urban ood management 325 326

WM/NE/LS/GS 337 recharge 174, 176 177, 177 rising levels 177, 179, 179trends in water level 174, 175 , 176

hard surface controls, urban ood

management 323hard-rock cliffs, erosion 277, 277 hillslopes

connectivity management 312 313conveyance, slowing 311 312

household expenditure, WM/NE/LS/GS 122housing development see urbanisationhuman behaviour, Scottish drivers 240 241Humber Estuary Shoreline Management

Plan 401

impoundments, ood management 306 307industrial losses

potential risk uncertainty 128WM/NE/LS/GS 119 121, 127

inltrationdrainage, groundwater table levels

325 326governance 302 303management 303, 304and runoff 298 299sustainability 303

insurance see ood insuranceintertidal areas

reduction 31 32sedimentary balance 35 36

Index

509


24/28

intra-urban ood managementarea development 336 building design/development 321 322, 335cost per property

coincident ooding 331expected annual damage 329 330

denitions 320 321environmental implications 470 471extreme event management 324 325nancing 323greenspace promotion 323, 470groundwater control 325 326, 338hard surface controls 323rainfall-runoff measures 324 325regional 324response measures

annual costs 331 332, 332sustainability assessments 334 335,

335 338

uncertainties 332 333WM/NE/LS/GS 333

sewer systems 328WM/NE/LS/GS 338

source control 336 storage

above-ground 326, 327below-ground 326 327WM/NE/LS/GS 337

sustainability, ood risk managementresponses 463 467

inundationoodplains

expected annual damage 444 445

expected annual probability 444,446 447 , 450

land drainage, and agriculture 251, 300 301land movements, and sea levels 133 134land values, and coastal erosion 290local stewardship scenario

see also Foresight Futures Projectcoastal defence responses 405, 406environmental impact 38 40, 95 96ood event management 353ood risks 384, 422 423future ood risks 78 79, 191 193, 216summaries 21 22

mapping, ood risks 343micro-morphology, and conveyance 90 91morphological protection

coastal defences 402 404sustainability 408 409

morphologycoastal 143 146, 235 236and coastal ooding 146ood risks 82modied estuarine 272 273, 273river channel changes 83, 96 97, 97 , 98

muddy oods 180, 181driver interactions 181 182, 181factors affecting 180 181future uncertainties 182rural land management 304 305

mudats, inundations 36

national enterprise scenariosee also Foresight Futures Projectcoastal defence responses 405, 406environmental impact 38 40, 95 96ood event management 351 352ood risks 384, 421 423future ood risks 78 79, 191 193, 216summaries 21 22

Northern Irelandagriculture 250 251coasts

defences 247 248, 260, 394erosion 259 260ooding 247 248, 260 261

ood alleviation benets 262ood management authorities 244, 248 250ood return periods 256 258, 257 ood risks 246 247, 248, 260, 261 ,

262 263ooding areas 244, 245oodplains 246, 246 housing development 251 252planning services 250, 251 252precipitation changes 252 253, 253 , 254predicted warming 253 254relief 244, 245

rivers 246 247, 246

, 255 256, 258sea level rise 258 259soil types 256storm surges 259

nuclear power stations, coastal erosion 278,278 , 291 292

pathways, denitions 16planning

for ood reduction 363 364controls 364 366

land-use conicts 124 126services

Northern Ireland 250, 251 252Scotland 237

urbanisation 167pluvial ooding, urban 152policy response themes, governance, WM/

NE/LS/GS 415 416, 484 485ponds, bunds and ditches, as runoff storage

306population

mobility and land-use 123 124, 124urbanisation 125 126WM/NE/LS/GS vunerability 216, 217 ,

218, 220

Index

510


25/28


26/28


27/28

state aid/compensation, ood losses 362storm surges

causes 136 137, 268and climate change 287estuarine barriers 395, 395oodplain vulnerability 139

future projections 137, 138 , 140Northern Ireland 259Scotland 233 234

stormwaterdomestic storage 322drainage systems 68

ooding from 151stream back-up, urban ooding 153surges see storm surgessustainability

above-ground storage 327analysis, ood risk reduction responses

426 429, 429catchment storage 307 308coastal defence response groups 408 409denitions 461domestic stormwater storage 322ood event management 353 354,

354 356 , 357ood reduction 372 373, 372ood risk responses

coastal zones 462 463, 465 466cost effectiveness 465 468intra-urban zones 463 466

future 461 462, 472 473metrics 426, 427 428, 429river conveyance, altering 386, 387

riversdefences 389, 389ood storage 386 387, 388ood-water transfer 387, 388

rural land management 303 304, 313urban drainage management 325,

334 335WM/NE/LS/GS 335 338

target defence condition grades,WM/NE/LS/GS 435

target standards of protection,WM/NE/LS/GS 433 434, 436,492 494

taxation, ood loss relief 481 482, 481temperatures

driver impact 197and ood risks 50and ooding frequencies 55future global rises 19trends

Northern Ireland 252, 253 254Scotland 230

Thames Barrier 395, 395transport implications, coastal defence re-

alignments 400 401

uncertaintiesassessments of 26cascades 60 61conveyance management 314 315ood event management 357ood risks, reduction responses 423 426

intra-urban ood risks, response measures332 333types of 59 60water retention, catchment storage

309 311within Foresight Futures Project 26 27Wynne classication 315 316, 423 424

uncertainty analysis 185 186, 199United Kingdom Climate Impact

Programme (UKCIP) 7urban ooding

see also intra-urban ood managementcauses 320 321and climate change 155driver identication 156 157ood waves 152increasing potential 123rainwater 152responses 162, 163 , 164risk assessments 23, 157 158, 161 162,

163 , 164 165risk reduction responses 418 419sewer inadequacies 151, 152 153spatial scales 150, 150stakeholder attitudes 155 156stream back-up 153surface runoff 151 152

and urbanisation 154WM/NE/LS/GSannual damages 166 167driver ranking 158 159, 161driver uncertainty 160 161

urban infrastructure, denitions 126 127urban land-use 64

average run off 69culverting and 154driver interactions 75, 76 , 77driver uncertainty 69 70ood detention measures 68 69oodplains 69new developments 237and planning conicts 124 126and population mobility 123 124, 124storm water drainage systems 68,

150 151urbanisation

oodplains 7, 69, 497 498governance 484 485Northern Ireland 251 252planned 167Scotland 230 231and surface run-off 154WM/NE/LS/GS risk changes 167 168

Index

513


28/28

washlandsconversion to 308as storage areas 31, 306

water recycling systems 154water table depths, agricultural areas 72 73water-level control structures

ood ghting 345 347responsibility for 345, 347waves

action 140 141coastal erosion 268denitions 140future changes 142 143, 287heights 141 142, 141urban ood 152

wetlandsconversion to 308

environmental economics 42 43, 42NGO funding 308as storage areas 306

world markets scenariosee also Foresight Futures Projectcoastal defence responses 404 406

environmental impact 38 40, 95 96ood event management 350 351ood risks 384, 421 422future ood risks 78 79, 191 193,

216high/low emissions scenarios 223,

224

sociological aspects 350 351summaries 21 22

Wynne classication of uncertainty315 316, 423 424

Index

514

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Future Flooding and Coastal Erosion Risks

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