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Body Level One
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Body Level Five Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Fellow, Centre for Management Development London Business School
TheFutureofAlmostEverythingGlobaltrends,disrup;vetechnologiesandinsuringrisks
Ins;tu;onalBlindness-beyonddata
do things you really believe in and I believe in insurance
LifeisShort
Complexity and scale create risks
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Benchmarking is toxic to risk underwriting
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Risk management strategies often overtaken
by events World can change faster than clients can
hold a board meeting
Agility
Yet many trends changing more slowly
than people think
Cash growing - bank branches continue -
music, fashions, food - homes look the same, robots, 3D printing etc
What is the future of the global
ECONOMY
WGP(%,constantprices)
VietnamGDP1985-2011
$3.4trillion($50trillionby2020globally)
>>$2.4trillion
Reserves
One word will dominate ALL
FUTURE
The future is aboutEMOTION
The greatest asset for every financial institution is
REPUTATION
Up to 70% of sales of new convenience
stores from people who live
40% of adults in UK dont know by 4pm what they will eat for dinner tonight
85% of world population will be living in emerging
markets in 10 years
1% owns 50%
1 billion will migrate over next 30 years
Science,technologyengineering,
maths
MostSTEMgraduatesinemergingmarkets
ChinaandIndiadominate
STEMdegreesincludingpost-graduate/PhDs
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1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time
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>65%spend>65years
1billion>60by2020
Micro-surgerywilltransformhospitalcare
125,000 stents or carotid surgery a year in US
Lengthofhospitalstay
willfall10-20%by2025
250millionwearablesmartdevicesby2023
$20bnto$70bnby2025
1weekevery4
following coronary, stroke or sight loss using adult stem cells
Repair Heart / Brain / Eyes with stem cells
Pigsteethgrowninsiderats Micegrownewteethfromnervecells/gum
Grow New Teeth
Rod photoreceptors (in green) within a "mini retina" derived from human induced Pluripotent Stem Cells in the lab. Courtesy of Johns Hopkins Medicine
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After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay
Monkeys on diet live longer
Read your genes in 2 hours for
$2000
Slow or no ageing is a reality
Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales
No signs of getting old
Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam 405 years
Some animals do not age in normal way
40 years old today - 82 projection82 + 5 (middle class) 87 + 10 (1 year in 4: 40 years)97 + 5 (therapies in first 30 years)102 + 5 (therapies in next 30 years)107 new AVERAGE life expectancyCan expect to be alive in 2082
Every year adds 3% to pension deficit
40 years old today - 82 projection82 + 5 (middle class) 87 + 10 (1 year in 4: 40 years)97 + 5 (therapies in first 30 years)102 + 5 (therapies in next 30 years)107 new AVERAGE life expectancyCan expect to be alive in 2082
Every year adds 3% to pension deficit
40 years old today - 82 projection82 + 5 (middle class) 87 + 10 (1 year in 4: 40 years)97 + 5 (therapies in first 30 years)102 + 5 (therapies in next 30 years)107 new AVERAGE life expectancyCan expect to be alive in 2082
Every year adds 3% to pension deficit
40 years old today - 82 projection82 + 5 (middle class) 87 + 10 (1 year in 4: 40 years)97 + 5 (therapies in first 30 years)102 + 5 (therapies in next 30 years)107 new AVERAGE life expectancyCan expect to be alive in 2082
Every year adds 3% to pension deficit
40 years old today - 82 projection82 + 5 (middle class) 87 + 10 (1 year in 4: 40 years)97 + 5 (therapies in first 30 years)102 + 5 (therapies in next 30 years)107 new AVERAGE life expectancyCan expect to be alive in 2082
Every year adds 3% to pension deficit
40 years old today - 82 projection82 + 5 (middle class) 87 + 10 (1 year in 4: 40 years)97 + 5 (therapies in first 30 years)102 + 5 (therapies in next 30 years)107 new AVERAGE life expectancy ?Can expect to be alive in 2082 ?
Every year adds 3% to pension deficit
40 years old today - 82 projection82 + 5 (middle class) 87 + 10 (1 year in 4: 40 years)97 + 5 (therapies in first 30 years)102 + 5 (therapies in next 30 years)107 new AVERAGE life expectancy ??Can expect to be alive in 2082 ??
Every year adds 3% to pension deficit
1trillionpagesamonth
People love Cities and Offices
ReproduceownimageTendtorecruitpeoplewithfamiliarname,voice,
accent,personality,culture,appearance
85%ofleadersoflargestUScorporaZonssaydiversityiskey
toinnovaZon
Forbesstudy
Diversitylinkedtohighersales,marketshareandprofits,talentrecruitment-andmoreaccurateunderwriZng
90% all global data
generated in last 2 years
BigDataandLi]leData
Big Data sharing allows shift from
Marketing to Smart Advice
Talking to customers on journey of life
Death of traditional marketing
Big Data = Pattern
Little Data = Person
missing you
Night Flight or Day Flight Going out or coming home? work, food, drink, chat,
party, unwind, dark, quiet, sleep, leave
BestforBusiness?
London New York
Globalised+BarriersIncreasingScale
VW mega platformVWMegaPla`orm-basisfor1mcars
World too small for more than:2 airline manufacturers
3 mobile operating systems10 large pharma
5 large auto companies
With rapid growth of niche manufacturing
8%wageinflaZoninChina-partoffsetbycurrencyfall
NearshoringBoom
Since 1980, global trade has grown at twice the rate of production but now growing LESS than production
MOBILE >50% of all online sales in many
nations are using mobile
LocaZonMarkeZng
isnextBIGTHING
Over4000roadhauliersinEU
1.3bnhomedeliverede-comitemsinUKayear(+12%pa)
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Internet of Things
1.5m components tracked perfectly in Airbus supply chain
$12bn security and controlhome automation market by 2018
2bn new smart home devices a year by 202027% of Internet of Things will be in homes
MobilePayment
Mobiledevicesalreadyusedtomakepaymentsofover$640bnpa-growing40%annually
40%ofKenyaseconomyisnowcarriedoutusingm-Pesapla`ormalone-e-walletlikeEZ-Cash
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Most retail bandwidth will be videoFree mobile devicescalls / web / TV
201020132015
TelcoBanks
90%MicrosojR&D SalesForceR&D>$3bnpa
CLOUD
INTERNET OF THINGS + BIG DATA + CLOUD
Overwhelming CYBERATTACKS
from States or criminals
180bnspamemailsaday600mnewviruses,malware,trojansayear>220mpeoplesdetailslostinsinglea]ack70%largecorporaZonshavebeenhacked
100,000a]acksanhouronUSNavyParalysisofEstoniagovernmentin2007
WorriesaboutUS,Russia,ChinapenetraZon
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
Shale gas 33% US supplies
3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020
200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
75% global growth in green energy was in China in 2014
SolarCells$/wa]1990-2015
subsidies
PriceParity
SurplusPowertoGas:13EUplants/26planned
EnergyusehashalvedperunitofproducZoninEUchemicalindustry
overlast20years
CO2 emissions stable for 24
months of global economic growth
do things you really believe in Life is Short
Beyond Compliance
AcZvelyManagedFunds-ethicalrisk
X%ac;vefundmanagersrecommendownretailfundstofamily
Y%choosetoinvestsignificantwealthinownfunds
AllleadershipcomesfromVISIONofabe]erfuture
BuildingaBe]erWorld
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
globalchange.com15millionvisitors
5millionvideoviews
http://globalchange.com