Integrated Supply Chain
© 2005 IBM Corporation1
Future Power Technology in the Global MarketFuture Power Technology in the Global Market
Dr. Scott D. Strand
Integrated Supply Chain
September 20, 2005 © 2004 IBM Corporation
Program Director, Power/Cooling Procurement EngineeringIBM
Integrated Supply Chain
© 2005 IBM Corporation2
The Technology Challenge/DriversMore Speed!Higher Density!More Data Capacity!More Bandwidth!Lower Cost!Smaller!More Portable!More Open!
Integrated Supply Chain
© 2005 IBM Corporation3
Supercomputing Roadmap
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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Tera
flops
Source: ASCI Roadmap www.llnl.gov/asci, IBM, Supercomputer Conf., 2004Brain ops/sec: Kurzweil 1999, The Ace of Spiritual Machines
IBM Deep Blue®
US Dept. Of Energy ASCI
IBM BlueGene/P
IBM BlueGene/L®
2.8/5.6 GF/s4MB
5.6/11.2 GF/s1.0 GB
90/180 GF/s16 GB
2.8/5.6 TF/s512 GB
180/360 TF/s32 TB
System64 Racks, 64x32x32
Node Card32 Chips 4x4x2)
16 compute, 0-2 IO cards
Rack32 Node Cards
Compute Card
2 chips, 1x2x1
Chip2
processors
Moravec 1998, www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm
Integrated Supply Chain
© 2005 IBM Corporation4
Examples of MetadataMetadata provides information and adds meaning to data
! Text/Documents– Names, locations, phone
numbers, language, …
! Images– Name, date, time– Characteristics
! Rich, Streaming Media– Location, timing, scene
identification, participants, actions, ...
– Formats
! Relational data– Column attributes– Table values (domains)
! XML Documents– Tags, XML Schema
! Software Assets– Date, version, …– Interface definitions
! Web Services– Name, attributes, …– Interface definitions
! People Proxies– Name, location, serial no. …
Unstructured Information
Structured Information
Integrated Supply Chain
© 2005 IBM Corporation5
Industry Implications For Metadata! The continued exponential growth of data will drive the need for,
and the explosion of, metadata
! The amount of metadata will significantly exceed the amount of data it describes
! Metadata will become a key enabler for information, application and business process integration
! Unexpected applications and businesses will emerge from the exploitation of integrated data and the creation and management of metadata
! Integrated search will become a key element of every productivity and enterprise application
! Metadata standards are emerging across every application domain and industry and will need to be reconciled with legacy corporate and industry schemata
! Enterprises need to re-think their information management strategy to exploit the emergence of new metadata standards
Integrated Supply Chain
© 2005 IBM Corporation6
Storage Trends
1980 1990 2000 20100.0001
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Pric
e/M
Byt
e (D
olla
rs)
Range of Paper/Film
3.5 " HDD
2.5 " HDD
1 " Microdrive
Flash
DRAM
Storage Price
Store all customer dataTransactions, letters, phone calls
over the span of a lifetime
1980 1990 2000 20100.001
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Are
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b/in
2)
Rent Blockbuster™Not a video... the entire store
Storage Density
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© 2005 IBM Corporation7
Semiconductor Technology
! “Traditional” CMOS scaling will slow, with innovation being the critical driver for future performance
! CMOS scaling coupled with innovation in device structures and materials is expected to provide an evolutionary path to the 25nm node
– Cycle time between technology nodes is very likely to continue to increase – Beyond 25nm, much uncertainty exists; much more radical devices may be needed
! Technology must now balance performance, power and variability– Power dissipation is limiting microprocessor performance, requiring new thermal
solutions– Process and statistical variability are emerging as dominant yield limiters
! Packaging will become an increasingly important component of performance
! Off-chip I/O bandwidth is becoming critical to continued system performance growth – Current technology approaching power and area limitations – Better electrical and optical solutions are needed
Semiconductor technology will continue to evolve and deliver performance but it will require innovation in device structures and materials, circuit design,
packaging, and a focus on process control
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© 2005 IBM Corporation8
10000
Initial Ship Date
Freq
uenc
y (M
Hz)
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010100
1000
100000
10000
CMOS Microprocessor Frequency Growth
??! Microprocessor
operating frequencies will increase at half the historical rate
! Power dissipation is limiting performance
! Future differentiation based on function, not frequency
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© 2005 IBM Corporation9
Future CMOS Roadmap: Less Predictive
! CMOS device performance will continue to improve rapidly, but in new ways" The concept of a scaled technology as we know it will cease to exist" Innovation will continue to drive performance improvements, but timing will be
harder to predict
19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005 20102010 20152015 20202020
Manufacturing Ramp StartManufacturing Ramp Start
NormalizedSemiconductor
Device Performance
Outlook
11
1010
100100
2000
2002
1995
2004
Molecular Scale Devices
High mobilityNew device structuresNew materials innovations
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Power Continues to Increase - Reaching Limits of Air Cooling! Active and passive power (gate leakage and sub-threshold leakage)
10S Tox=11AGate Stack
0.010.110.001
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0.1
1
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1000
GateLength (microns)
Active Power
Passive Power
1994 2004Pow
er D
ensi
ty (W
/cm
2 )
Gate Length (microns)Gate dielectric approaching a fundamental limit (a few atomic layers)
Integrated Supply Chain
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Power is Limiting Microprocessor FrequenciesServer microprocessors cannot simultaneously utilize all their
transistors due to power limitations
Shippable PartsWith Leakage
Minimum Ship Frequency
Leff SlowFast
Nominal
Pow
er
Cooling/Power Limit
Max Freq(No Leakage)
Max Freq(With Leakage)
Power w/Leakage
Num
ber o
f Par
ts
Integrated Supply Chain
© 2005 IBM Corporation12
Cross-section of NEC Earth Simulator showing cooling facilities
Supercomputers ……. Massive Cooling Needs
Integrated Supply Chain
© 2005 IBM Corporation13
Power Management in Systems
P-III IdleP-III Loaded
P-IV System0
20
40
60
80
100
Syst
em P
ower
(wat
ts)
I/OI/O
CPUCPUMemoryMemory
I/OI/O
CPUCPU
MemoryMemoryIdleIdle
LoadedLoaded
PeakPeakPentium-III measuredPentium-IV estimated
Servers configured for expected peak loadAverage load can be much lessProcessor - over half of power when loaded
Hardware power management optionsSlow down CPU (mobile applications, etc.)
Power efficiency ~(processor voltage)2
Power down some nodes or slow down all nodesTrade-off power in memory & I/O vs. efficient CPU usage
Need power usage profile - measurements, models
Power efficiency gains from softwareBased on user models/expectations OS can further improve efficiency*More gains with other software approaches
Power consumption can be reduced at various levels, ranging from hardware controls to software methods, including power efficient OS and applications
Base Hardware OS-aided App-aided0123
4Relative Efficiency
* Source: J. R. Lorch & A. J. Smith, "Improving Dynamic Voltage Scaling Algorithms with PACE", SIGMETRICS 2001
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Systems Will Be Designed With the Ability to Dynamically Manage and Optimize Power
! Power dissipation is increasingly limiting the performance of processors and systems driving new design techniques
– The power of high-end processor chips has exceeded 200 Watts
– Blades will push the power to 5 KW/sq-ft within the next 5 years
– Costs for cooling data centers will increase significantly
! Future systems will need to dynamically manage power at runtime
– Ability to quickly turn system elements on/off, control frequency including microprocessors, caches, memory and busses
I/O&Misc3% L3
11%
Fans23%
I/O Fans5%
DRAM System30%
Processors28%
Power distribution of a typical server
Power densities of all system-level elements (device to rack) are increasing exponentially
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Implications! Systems performance leadership will be enabled by judiciously
balancing performance and power consumption, rather than maintaining historical frequency trends
! Power dissipation is limiting microprocessor performance, requiring aggressive power-management techniques and new thermal solutions
! Innovation in device structures and materials, not scaling, will be the primary driver of semiconductor performance improvements
! Integration and optimization over the entire systems stack will be critical to maintaining traditional server performance trends
Integrated Supply Chain
© 2005 IBM Corporation16
2004 Platform Symposium Summary: Still valid today!
Technical Challenges and Solutions
Higher Reliability - MTBFHigher Power DensityHigher Transient Response - di/dt Higher EfficiencyLower Voltage - Higher CurrentVoltage/Current Distribution Increased Number Of Voltage DomainsAbility to Hot SwapError and Status ReportingIncreased Mobile Client Power NeedsLower CostShorter Development CyclesBest Industry Reliability
More IntegrationHigher Switching FrequenciesLower Switching and Conduction Losses Topology Influences
RES/ZVS/ZCSBetter EMI DesignInnovative Design Lower Output ImpedanceThermal ManagementComponent Improvements
IntegratedBattery TechnologyPower SemiconductorsCapacitorsInterconnect
Integrated Supply Chain
© 2005 IBM Corporation17
Technical Challenges• More Processors Per Server• 1U & 2U Server Packages• Higher Power Density• Higher Transient Response - di/dt • Higher Efficiency• Lower Voltage - Higher Current• Voltage/Current Distribution Within Server• Ability to Hot Swap - Availability• Error and Status Reporting – Servicability• Best Industry Reliability• Lower Cost• Shorter Development Cycles
Integrated Supply Chain
© 2005 IBM Corporation18
Digital Power Control: Is it the solution?
Provides a huge advantageShorter Development Cycles
Advantage is in reuse and development costsLower Cost
Allows much more information to be saved and reportedError and Status Reporting
Support via softwareAbility to Hot Swap
Allows flexibility to define multiple voltage levelsIncreased Number Of Voltage Domains
Integration of function allows more space on boardsVoltage/Current Distribution
Integration of function allows more room for power components
Lower Voltage - Higher Current
More control of loops and frequencyHigher Efficiency
Control of compensation loops could allow greater transient response
Higher Transient Response - di/dt
More integration of functionHigher Power Density
Fewer componentsHigher Reliability - MTBF
Digital SolutionWhat We Need
Integrated Supply Chain
© 2005 IBM Corporation19
Digital Power Control: Is it the solution?
Greater integration helps overall reliabilityComponent Improvements
Greater control of switching and loops based on loadThermal Management
Digital solution provides no advantageLower Output Impedance
Allows flexibility in the design/development phaseInnovative Design
Digital solution provides no advantageBetter EMI Design
More control of loops, frequency, and feedbackTopology Influences
Digital solution provides no advantageLower Switching and Conduction Losses
Digital control provides higher frequency capabilityHigher Switching Frequencies
Fewer componentsMore Integration
Digital SolutionHow We Get There
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© 2005 IBM Corporation20
Comments Regarding Digital Power
! Digital Power Management is Not New!!!– Used in Telecomm and Computer Systems Since 1980’s (for example, SPCN for
AS/400, now iSeries and PCN for S/390, now zSeries)
– Also Has Been Used in UPS, Motor Drives, and Utility Industries
! Many Proprietary Solutions
! Standardization Efforts are under way, but need coordination from end users
! Little or No University Research to Satisfy industry needs
! Total Cost of Digital Power Solutions is Competitive
Integrated Supply Chain
© 2005 IBM Corporation21
What is New in Digital Power?
1. Ability to Control Real-Time Cycle-by-Cycle Operation Of A Power Converter
2. Power Standard Command Protocol – PMBusTM
to manage power.
3. Cost Effective Solutions - Chip Set Manufacturers
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© 2005 IBM Corporation22
Benefits of Digital Power Management
! Reduced Development, Qualification and manufacturing cost! Higher Quality and Reliability at competitive cost! Reduced Parts Count - Two chips at the most with unlimited functions due to
firmware. Same control card for different applications. Low Inventory
! Reduced Board Area due to Integrated modules. ! Flexibility Through Programmability
– Engineering Changes through firmware and not by Soldering Iron – Can be useful in Development, Qualification, Manufacturing, and Field.
! Calibration at Final Functional Test; application specific parameter! Less Sensitive to Environment and Component Drift! Better Noise Immunity ! Unlimited parameter monitoring – continual quality improvement
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© 2005 IBM Corporation23
Barriers To Implementation of Digital Power! Legacy Systems and Risk Management! Perception …. It Will Cost More
– Piece Price Probably Will Increase– Total Cost of Ownership Is Difficult To Quantify, but this must be the measure…
! Not Many Digital Power Experts within the industry– Power Is an analog world – digital power is an uncomfortable area.
! Resources and Buy-In To Define Architecture To Best Implement A Digital Power Solution– NOTE: This is not a power system item only. This requires buy-in and innovation throughout the entire
system including the operating system, firmware, and service processor– Without this Buy-In, The Advantages of Digital Power Are Limited To Essentially What is Available
Today. Would An Optimized Digital Power Solution Justify The New Architecture?
! Each Chip Set Supplier Has Their Own Proprietary Tool for Optimizing the Loop And Setting Parameters. No standard Chip sets by semiconductor industry.
! Digital Power Offers Many Possibilities - Lack of usage of the available features. ! Digital Systems In A Noisy Environment Such As Power Demands Good Design
Practices for Common Mode Noise and Differential Mode Noise Rejection. – For Example: SF4 System Had An Issue Due to Noise on I2C Bus Causing Bits To Toggle Randomly
Integrated Supply Chain
© 2005 IBM Corporation24
What Do We Need From The Industry?! Solutions, solutions, solutions!!!
– Provide drop-in solutions to legacy products– Solid designs to eliminate potential noise issues with higher
frequency digital signals
! Standardization without sacrificing function and capability– This needs to be driven by the end-users – we have to get what we
need
! Cooperation among component suppliers, power supply suppliers, and end users– Information and solutions must be shared while maintaining
competitive advantage and profit– Component suppliers and power suppliers should work together to
provide solutions to the industry – share expertise and knowledge
Integrated Supply Chain
© 2005 IBM Corporation25
Future Power Technology in the Global MarketFuture Power Technology in the Global Market
Dr. Scott D. Strand
Integrated Supply Chain
September 20, 2005 © 2004 IBM Corporation
Program Director, Power/Cooling Procurement EngineeringIBM