GEOTHERMAL RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT USING
STATISTICAL METHODS
Halldora Gudmundsdottir
Roland N. Horne
G E O R G G E O T H E R M A L W O R K S H O P
N O V. 1 4 - 1 5 , 2 0 1 8
I NTRODUCTION
• For sustainable geothermal exploitation we need to understand and predict the reservoir’s response to stimulation.
• Characterizing fractures and faults is a challening task.
• Statistical methods are becoming increasingly popular for predictive analysis in exploration, production and delivery phases.
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Reservoir characterization
Thermal breakthrough predictions
Cool down of heat source
Insufficient heating of fluid
M AIN O BJECTIVES
• Explore statistical methods for reservoir characterization and prediction analysis:
1) Use nonparametric regression to infer well-to-well connectivity using tracer and temperature data.
2) Use clustering for reservoir characterization and predictions.
3) Apply Bayesian Evidential Learning (BEA) to directly predict production temperature and interwell connectivity of the reservoir.
4) Develop neural networks to infer well-to-well connectivity using injection rates and tracer data.
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W ELL -TO-W ELL CONNECTIVITY W ITH ACE
• The ACE algorithm is used to obtain well-to-well connectivity indices.
• The general form of the nonparametric regression:
𝜃 𝑌 =
𝑖=1
𝑝
𝜑𝑖 𝑋𝑖 + 𝜖
• The correlation is maximized by minimizing the error:
𝜖2 𝜃, 𝜑1, … , 𝜑𝑝 = 𝐸[(𝜃 𝑌 −
𝑖=1
𝑝
𝜑𝑖 𝑋𝑖 )2]
• The minimization is an iterative process:
𝜑𝑖 𝑋𝑖 = 𝐸[𝜃 𝑌 −
𝑖=1
𝑝
𝜑𝑖 𝑋𝑖 |𝑋𝑖]
𝜃 𝑌 = 𝐸[
𝑖=1
𝑝
𝜑𝑖 𝑋𝑖 |𝑌]/||𝐸[
𝑖=1
𝑝
𝜑𝑖 𝑋𝑖 |𝑌]||
• The well-to-well connectivity:
𝐼𝑖 =1
𝑛
𝑗=1
𝑛
𝜑𝑖 𝑋𝑖(𝑡𝑗)4
Y: target variableX1,..,Xp: predictor variablesθ, ϕ : transformation functionsϵ: regression errorn: number of time steps
A library of 800 DFNs*:
* The library of networks is modified from Magnusdottir, L. (2013).
W ELL -TO-W ELL CONNECTIVITY
Using tracer responses at producers as predictors in ACE
For 80.5% of the networks, the ACE connectivity was within ±0.05 of the tracer transit time connectivity.
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P1 P2
P3
BAYESIAN EVIDENTIAL LEARNING (BEL)
• Instead of applying inverse analysis, a method for directly predicting subsurface flow responses is suggested (Satija et al. (2015), Li (2017), Scheidt et al. (2018)).
• The idea is to replace the iterative history matching process with Monte Carlo sampling of the prior parameter distribution.
• These parameters are used in forward simulations to obtain production data at wells.
• A statistical relationship between data and prediction variables is developed in combination with true observed data to make predictions.
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THE EVIDENTIAL FRAMEWORK
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Prior definition
Monte Carlo study
Multiple reservoir models
Flow simulation → prior data variables Flow simulation → prior prediction variables
Dimension reduction Dimension reduction
Observed production data
Prediction and uncertainty quantification
Exploration data, production data
Decision
*Modified from Li, L. (2017)
THE EVIDENTIAL FRAMEWORK
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Prior definition
Monte Carlo study
Multiple reservoir models
Flow simulation → prior data variables Flow simulation → prior prediction variables
Dimension reduction Dimension reduction
Observed production data
Prediction and uncertainty quantification
Decision
Exploration data, production data
*Modified from Li, L. (2017), Hermans, T. et al. (2018)
THERMAL PREDICTIONS WITH BEL
CASE 1:
• Data variables: Tracer return at P1up to 500 days
• Prediction variables: Temperature response at P1 from 500-1000 days
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P1
4 20
THERMAL PREDICTIONS WITH BEL
10
P2
4 17
P3
534
THERMAL PREDICTIONS WITH BEL
11
P2
CASE 2:
• Data variables: Tracer at P2 & P3 up to 500 days
• Prediction variables: Temperature response at P1from 500-1000 days
P3
P1
9 20
CONNECTIVITY PREDICTIONS WITH BEL
12
P1 P2
P3
CASE 3:
• Data variables: Tracer at P1, P2 & P3 up to 500 days
• Prediction variable: Interwell connectivities
W ELL - TO-W ELL CONNECTIVITY WITH NEURAL
NETWORKS
• Sensitivity analysis of model structure to obtain interwell connectivities:
𝑆𝑚𝑛 =𝜕𝑌𝑚𝜕𝑋𝑛
• Sensitivity is evaluated over entire training set:
𝑆𝑚𝑛,𝑎𝑣𝑔 =σ𝑑=1𝐷 𝑆𝑚𝑛
2
𝐷
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*Artun (2017), Demiryurek et al. (2008)
INJE
CT
OR
S
PR
OD
UC
ER
S
PALINPINON G EOTHERMAL F IELD
OK7 - ACE OK7 - NN
PN-1RD 0.0649 0.0873
PN-2RD 0.1234 0.1228
PN-3RD 0.0195 0.0068
PN-4RD 0.0195 0.0903
PN-5RD 0.1299 0.0837
PN-6RD 0.0649 0.0719
PN-7RD 0.0065 0.0568
PN-8RD 0.0195 0.0864
PN-9RD 0.1039 0.0931
Input & Output Data Multiple initializations of the neural network
Best fit
SYNTHETIC CASE
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SUMMARY AND NEXT STEPS
• ACE regression• ACE regression produced well-to-well connectivity indices in good agreement with tracer
transit times. • Temperature data performed worse than tracer data.
• K-means clustering:• Clustering showed promise in grouping networks according to reservoir character and
behavior. • Determining optimal number of cluster is challenging.
• Bayesian Evidential Learning• BEL was able to make predictions based on tracer and temperature data. • With real data, the relationship between data and forecasting variables will become less
linear.
• Neural networks:• Show promise in producing well-to-well connectivities.• Can be used to develop proxy models for the reservoir for fast optimization of
injection/production schedules.16
NEXT STEPS
• Generate more realistic realizations of geothermal reservoirs.
• Add number of injection and production wells and increase complexity of injection schedules.
• Consider field scale data.
• Investigate other statistical methods that can be used for predictions and optimization of injection/production operations.
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Acknowledgements
• We would like to thank the Department of Energy Resources Engineering at Stanford University and Landsvirkjun, National Power Company of Iceland, for the financial support that made this research possible.
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References
Artun, E. (2017). Characterizing interwell connectivity in waterflooded reservoirs using data-driven and reduced-physics models: a comparative study. Neural Comput. & Applic, 28:1729-1743.
Demiryurek, U., Banaei-Kashani, F. & Shahabi, C. (2008). Neural-Network based Sensitivity Analysis for Injector-Producer Relationship Identification. In Proceedings of the SPE Intelligent Energy Conference and Exhibition, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 25-27 February 2008.
Horne, R.N. & Szucs, P. (2007). Inferring well-to-well connectivity using nonparametric regression on well histories. In Proceedings of the 32nd Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering. Stanford University, 22-24 January 2007.
Li, L. (2017). A Bayesian Approach to Causal and Evidential Analysis for Uncertainty Quantification Throughout the Reservoir Forecasting Process. PhD thesis, Stanford University.
Magnusdottir, L. (2013). Fracture Characterization in Geothermal Reservoirs Using Time-lapse Electric Potential Data. PhD thesis, Stanford University.
Satija, A. & Caers, J. (2015). Direct forecasting of subsurface flow response from non-linear dynamic data by linear least-squares in canonical functional principal component space. Advance in Water Resources, 77:69-81.
Scheidt, C., Li, L. & Caers, J. (2018). Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems. New York, NY: American Geophysical Union, Wiley.
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W ELL -TO-W ELL CONNECTIVITY
Using thermal responses at producers as predictors in ACE
For 58.3% of the networks, the ACE connectivity was within ±0.05 of the tracer transit time connectivity.
21
P1 P2
P3
RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION USING CLUSTER
ANALYSIS
• Exploratory capabilities of unsupervised learning can potentially be helpful for reservoir characterization.
• K-means clustering is used to group fracture networks and hence infer about the character of the reservoir as well as thermal behavior.
• K-means minimizes variation within a cluster as much as possible:
min𝐶1,…,𝐶𝐾
𝑘=1
𝐾
𝑊(𝐶𝑘)
𝑊 𝐶𝑘 =1
𝐶𝑘
𝑖,𝑖′∈𝐶𝑘
𝑗=1
𝑝
(𝑥𝑖𝑗 − 𝑥𝑖′𝑗)2
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K: number of clustersCk: cluster number kW(Ck): distance measurep: number of featuresx: features
CLUSTER ANALYSIS – EXAMPLE 1
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P1 P2
CLUSTER ANALYSIS – EXAMPLE 2
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P1 P2
P3