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The Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisation providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public. CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET
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Page 1: GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY … · 2017. 10. 17. · 2. While renewable energy is booming globally, policy uncertainty around the Renewable Energy Target

The Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisation

providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public.

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET

Page 2: GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY … · 2017. 10. 17. · 2. While renewable energy is booming globally, policy uncertainty around the Renewable Energy Target

Authorship: Petra Stock

Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited

ISBN: 978-0-9942453-4-2 (web)

© Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2015

This work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd. All material contained in this work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd except where a third party source is indicated.

Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia License. To view a copy of this license visit http://creativecommons.org.au

You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material so long as you attribute the Climate Council of Australia Ltd and the authors in the following manner:

Giga-What? A guide to the Renewable Energy Target by Petra Stock (Climate Council of Australia).

© Climate Council of Australia Limited 2015.

Permission to use third party copyright content in this publication can be sought from the relevant third party copyright owner/s.

This report is printed on 100% recycled paper.

Petra Stock

Page 3: GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY … · 2017. 10. 17. · 2. While renewable energy is booming globally, policy uncertainty around the Renewable Energy Target

Page 1CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

KEY FINDINGS

Key Findings 1. Renewable energy is a crucial

way to reduce carbon emissions from electricity supply and combat climate change.

› Burning fossil fuels for electricity

production is the largest source of

greenhouse gas emissions driving

climate change.

› Australia’s renewable energy

resources are capable of producing

500 times the amount of electricity

we currently use.

› A Productivity Commission review

of more than 1,000 emissions

reduction policies found that

policies encouraging additional

large-scale renewable electricity

power plants were the second-

most cost-effective set of policies

after emissions trading schemes.

2. While renewable energy is booming globally, policy uncertainty around the Renewable Energy Target means investment has fallen in Australia.

› Investment in large-scale

renewable energy projects fell 88

percent in Australia in 2014, while

global investment in renewable

energy grew.

3. The Renewable Energy Target has reduced greenhouse gas emissions in Australia.

› To date, the Renewable Energy

Target has reduced greenhouse

gas emissions by 22.5 million

tonnes carbon dioxide- equivalent

to 10 per cent of Australia’s annual

electricity emissions.

› In future, if the current policy

continues, the RET will reduce

emissions by 58 million tonnes

carbon dioxide (2015–2020) –

equivalent to annual emissions

from all of Australia’s passenger

cars and light commercial vehicles.

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Page 2

GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

Over the past year, there has been

plenty of wrangling over the future

of Australia’s renewable energy target

(RET). The RET debate tends to get

caught up in technical terms and

specialised arguments – like how many

gigawatthours (GWh) the target should

be – making it difficult for anyone not in

the renewable energy industry to follow.

Renewable energy is an important

solution to climate change given the

energy sector is responsible for both the

largest proportion and biggest growth

of greenhouse gas emissions created by

people (IPCC 2014).

The Climate Council is consistently

asked questions from the public and

the media about renewable energy and

the RET. This report aims to provide a

simple guide to how this policy works,

explaining key terms and concepts, and

answering common misconceptions.

Given the majority – over 70% - of

Australians support retaining or

increasing the RET (Climate Institute

2014), it’s important for all of us to

understand what changes, if any,

are proposed following the recent

Warburton (Commonwealth of Australia

2014) and Climate Change Authority

(2014) reviews. We hope this report

helps you to unscramble the technical

jargon and get to the bottom of any

announcements, reports or proposals

on the RET.

1. Introduction

Page 5: GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY … · 2017. 10. 17. · 2. While renewable energy is booming globally, policy uncertainty around the Renewable Energy Target

Page 3CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

02BACK TO BASICS: WHAT IS A RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET?

A renewable energy target is a policy

to encourage more renewable energy,

that is energy produced from naturally

replenished sources such as sunlight,

wind, rain, tides and heat from the

Earth (ARENA 2014).

There are many reasons countries,

like Australia, adopt renewable energy

targets: action on climate change; an

abundant and free fuel source with

limited reliance on scarce resources

like water; health and environmental

benefits; energy access and security;

and to provide an economic boost to

regional economies (Box 1).

2. Back to basics: What is a renewable energy target?

Australia’s renewable energy resources are capable of providing 500 times the amount of electricity we currently use.

Page 6: GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY … · 2017. 10. 17. · 2. While renewable energy is booming globally, policy uncertainty around the Renewable Energy Target

Page 4

GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

Box 1: Reasons for having a renewable energy targetACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGERenewable energy targets aim to reduce

emissions in the electricity sector,

which is “pivotal” for limiting global

warming to no more than 2°C (Climate

Change Authority 2014). This is because

globally and in Australia, electricity

produced using fossil fuels is the largest

source of greenhouse gas emissions

(Department of the Environment 2014;

IPCC 2014). In Australia, around 90% of

electricity is generated by fossil fuels,

with 75% coming from coal (Australian

Energy Market Operator 2013a).

Australia’s coal fired power stations

are highly polluting, ageing units using

less efficient technology (Climate

Council 2014a).

AN ABUNDANT AND FREE FUEL SOURCERenewable energy resources are

readily available and free once capital

is invested to harvest them. In Australia,

our renewable energy resources are

among the best in the world; potentially

capable of providing 500 times the

amount of electricity we currently

use (Geoscience Australia and ABARE

2010; AEMO 2013b). On the other hand,

fossil fuels are never free, and most,

like oil, gas and black coal, are now

priced through international trading

mechanisms.

LIMITED RELIANCE ON SCARCE RESOURCES, LIKE WATERRenewable energy technologies

(other than hydroelectricity) do not

require large quantities of water for

cooling unlike coal and nuclear (US

Environmental Protection Agency 2014).

HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITSIn operation, renewable electricity emits

little or no toxic waste. In contrast, each

part of coal’s lifecycle emits toxic and

carcinogenic substances with severe

health impacts for miners, workers and

local communities (Climate Council

2014b). In China, reducing air pollution

is a major driver behind its renewable

energy targets (Climate Council 2014c).

ENERGY ACCESS AND SECURITYRenewable energy can provide an

affordable and reliable source of energy

within country borders, thereby limiting

reliance on imported fuels such as

oil and gas (IEA 2007).

AN ECONOMIC BOOST TO REGIONAL ECONOMIESRenewable energy can attract investment

and create jobs in regional areas. Farmers

and landowners in regional areas can

benefit from annual lease payments

“drought-proofing” farms by providing

a reliable, alternative source of income

(Climate Council 2014d; REN21 2014).

IN DETAIL 1

Page 16

CLIMATE COUNCIL: BRAND STYLEGUIDE

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

Fire has been a feature of the Australian environment for at least 65 million years (Cary et al., 2012). Human management of fires also has a long history, starting with fire use by indigenous Australians (“fire-stick farming”) up to 60,000 years ago. European settlement brought changes in fire activity with flow-on effects to Australian landscapes.

Between 3% and 10% of Australia’s land

area burns every year (Western Australian

Land Information Authority, 2013) (Figs.

1 and 2). In the north of the continent,

extensive areas of the tropical savanna

woodlands and grasslands are burnt

every winter during the dry season. High

rainfall during the summer followed

by a dry warm winter, together with

the presence of a highly combustible

grass layer, creates a very flammable

environment. Fire incidence peaks in

the late winter dry season, with intensity

increasing as the season progresses. In

areas that receive more than 1000 mm

of rainfall per year, about 35% of the land

can be burnt in a typical year (Russell-

Smith et al., 2007).

In the southeast and southwest, fires

are common in the heathlands and dry

sclerophyll forests, typically occurring

about every 5 to 30 years, with spring and

summer being peak fire season (Clarke

et al., 2011; Bradstock et al., 2012a). Fires

in the southeast are often associated

with periods of El Niño drought (Murphy

et al., 2013) and may be extremely

intense (El Niño is the phase of the

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

phenomenon characterised by warm dry

conditions, while the La Niña phase is

characterised by cool, wet conditions).

Fires in wet sclerophyll forests, such as

the mountain ash forests in Victoria,

are less frequent but can be of very

high intensity when they do occur (Gill,

1975). Fires are rare in rainforests in the

absence of disturbances

such as logging or cyclones

because of the moist shaded

local climate (Little et al.,

2012). Arid central Australia

experiences intermittent

fires, typically following

periods of extremely high

rainfall associated with La

Niña events because these

events lead to increased fuel

load (Murphy et al., 2013)

(Fig. 3).

The concept of “fire

regimes” is important for understanding

Forest Fire Danger IndexThe Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) was

developed in the 1960s by CSIRO scientist A.G.

MacArthur to measure the degree of risk of

fire in Australian forests (Luke and Macarthur,

1978). The Bureau of Meteorology and fire

management agencies use the FFDI to assess

fire risk and issue warnings.

The index is calculated in real time by

combining a number of meteorological

variables: preceding rainfall and evaporation;

current wind speed; temperature; and humidity.

A related index, the Grassland Fire Danger

Index (GFDI), is also used in some regions and

States, calibrated for more flammable grassland

conditions.

The FFDI was originally designed on a scale

from 0 to 100. MacArthur used the conditions of

the catastrophic Black Friday fires of 1939 to set

the maximum value of 100. These fires burned

5 million hectares and constituted, at the time,

one of the largest fire events known globally.

An index of 12 to 25 describes conditions with a

“high” degree of danger. Days with ratings over

50 are considered to be “severe”—a fire ignited

on such a day will likely burn so hot and fast

that suppression becomes difficult. For forests, a

rating over 75 is categorised as “Extreme”.

The FFDI on 7th February 2009 in Victoria,

known as “Black Saturday”, ranged from 120 to

190, the highest FFDI values on record (Karoly,

2009). Following these fires the FFDI in Victoria

was revised and the category “Catastrophic” or

“Code Red” was added (FFDI>100). Consistent

with the increasing incidence of hot and

dry conditions, there have been a number of

declarations of Catastrophic conditions around

southern Australia since Black Saturday.

The FFDI is not only used by management

agencies to calculate risk, it has also become

an important tool for research. For example,

the probability of destruction of property in

the Sydney basin has been found to increase

significantly with increasing FFDI (Bradstock

and Gill, 2001). The FFDI has also been used

extensively in projections of fire risk in the

future (see section 7).

CategoryForest Fire

Danger Index

Grassland Fire

Danger Index

CATASTROPHIC (CODE RED)* 100 + 150 +

EXTREME 75–99 100–149

SEVERE 50–74 50–99

VERY HIGH 25–49 25–49

HIGH 12–24 12–24

LOW TO MODERATE 0–11 0–11

* In Tasmania, the “Catastrophic” category is indicated by the colour black

(Sources: CFA, 2009, Bureau of Meteorology http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/bushfire/)

IN DETAIL 1

Page 1

BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE

AUSTRALIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

LAYOUT: DETAIL BOXES

Detail boxes are a good way to

break out content that is quite

separate to the rest of the section-

based content. Generically (as

the name infers) they’re used to

explain one particular thing in

detail, the visual differentiation

allowing a person to skip that

section easily if they desire.

However, they could be used

in a number of different ways,

for example a profile on an

individual firefighter, including

images and an interview, or a full

page graphic.

The majority of the content should stay within the confines

of the main margins, while the grey

background and box heading push outside.

Note (not shown here): Due to the specific

nature of the content graphs and tables

could be more detailed on these pages than

visualised data in the rest of the document.

Note the switch from a 7 column grid to one with 6. This makes the most of what is essentially an information heavy page, and breaks up the main section content further by providing visual variety.

Page 7: GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY … · 2017. 10. 17. · 2. While renewable energy is booming globally, policy uncertainty around the Renewable Energy Target

Page 5CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

03RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS AROUND THE WORLD

3. Renewable energy targets around the worldAustralia was one of the first countries

in the world to introduce a national

renewable energy target (Clean Energy

Regulator 2013). Now, renewable energy

targets are common worldwide. At the

beginning of 2014, 144 countries (as well

as thousands of states, cities and towns)

had renewable energy targets in place

(REN21 2014; Figure 1).

LOW QUALITY IMAGE

Source: REN21 2014

Figure 1: The number of countries with renewable energy targets is growing

Countries with Renewable Energy Targets

144COUNTRIES

WITH RENEWABLEENERGY TARGETS IN

2014

127COUNTRIES

WITH RENEWABLEENERGY TARGETS IN

2012

138COUNTRIES

WITH RENEWABLEENERGY TARGETS IN

2013

Page 8: GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY … · 2017. 10. 17. · 2. While renewable energy is booming globally, policy uncertainty around the Renewable Energy Target

Page 6

GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

Table 1: Renewable energy target examples around the world

Area Target

Denmark 50% renewable electricity by 2020

100% by 2050

Indonesia 26% renewable electricity by 2025

New Zealand 90% renewable electricity by 2025

California 50% renewable electricity by 2030

Australia 41,000 GWh large-scale renewable electricity annually by 2020 plus uncapped support for eligible small-scale solar and wind

South Australia 50% renewable electricity by 2025

Targets for all energy consumed (includes electricity, transport, heating...)

European Union (28 countries) 20% renewables of all energy consumed by 2020

Targets for heating and cooling

United Kingdom 12% renewables in total heating and cooling supply by 2020

Targets for transport

Germany 20% renewables of transport energy consumed by 2020

Targets for installing specific renewable energy technologies (capacity targets)

China Overall target of 20% zero emissions energy for all energy by 2030

Technology specific targets:

420 GW hydropower by 2020

200 GW wind power by 2020

50 GW solar photovoltaic power by 2020

200 GW concentrating solar power by 2020

30 GW biomass power by 2020

India Overall target of 15% renewable electricity (not including hydroelectricity) by 2020

Capacity targets:

100 GW solar power by 2022

60 GW wind power by 2022

Note: To gain a sense of the scale of capacity targets – the capacity of Australia’s total electricity supply is 56 GW,

and installed renewable electricity capacity is 15.7 GW

Sources: REN21 2014; RenewEconomy 2014a and b; Governor of the State of California 2015;

Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis 2015

Page 9: GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY … · 2017. 10. 17. · 2. While renewable energy is booming globally, policy uncertainty around the Renewable Energy Target

Page 7CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

03RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS AROUND THE WORLD

IN DETAIL 2

Page 16

CLIMATE COUNCIL: BRAND STYLEGUIDE

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

Fire has been a feature of the Australian environment for at least 65 million years (Cary et al., 2012). Human management of fires also has a long history, starting with fire use by indigenous Australians (“fire-stick farming”) up to 60,000 years ago. European settlement brought changes in fire activity with flow-on effects to Australian landscapes.

Between 3% and 10% of Australia’s land

area burns every year (Western Australian

Land Information Authority, 2013) (Figs.

1 and 2). In the north of the continent,

extensive areas of the tropical savanna

woodlands and grasslands are burnt

every winter during the dry season. High

rainfall during the summer followed

by a dry warm winter, together with

the presence of a highly combustible

grass layer, creates a very flammable

environment. Fire incidence peaks in

the late winter dry season, with intensity

increasing as the season progresses. In

areas that receive more than 1000 mm

of rainfall per year, about 35% of the land

can be burnt in a typical year (Russell-

Smith et al., 2007).

In the southeast and southwest, fires

are common in the heathlands and dry

sclerophyll forests, typically occurring

about every 5 to 30 years, with spring and

summer being peak fire season (Clarke

et al., 2011; Bradstock et al., 2012a). Fires

in the southeast are often associated

with periods of El Niño drought (Murphy

et al., 2013) and may be extremely

intense (El Niño is the phase of the

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

phenomenon characterised by warm dry

conditions, while the La Niña phase is

characterised by cool, wet conditions).

Fires in wet sclerophyll forests, such as

the mountain ash forests in Victoria,

are less frequent but can be of very

high intensity when they do occur (Gill,

1975). Fires are rare in rainforests in the

absence of disturbances

such as logging or cyclones

because of the moist shaded

local climate (Little et al.,

2012). Arid central Australia

experiences intermittent

fires, typically following

periods of extremely high

rainfall associated with La

Niña events because these

events lead to increased fuel

load (Murphy et al., 2013)

(Fig. 3).

The concept of “fire

regimes” is important for understanding

Forest Fire Danger IndexThe Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) was

developed in the 1960s by CSIRO scientist A.G.

MacArthur to measure the degree of risk of

fire in Australian forests (Luke and Macarthur,

1978). The Bureau of Meteorology and fire

management agencies use the FFDI to assess

fire risk and issue warnings.

The index is calculated in real time by

combining a number of meteorological

variables: preceding rainfall and evaporation;

current wind speed; temperature; and humidity.

A related index, the Grassland Fire Danger

Index (GFDI), is also used in some regions and

States, calibrated for more flammable grassland

conditions.

The FFDI was originally designed on a scale

from 0 to 100. MacArthur used the conditions of

the catastrophic Black Friday fires of 1939 to set

the maximum value of 100. These fires burned

5 million hectares and constituted, at the time,

one of the largest fire events known globally.

An index of 12 to 25 describes conditions with a

“high” degree of danger. Days with ratings over

50 are considered to be “severe”—a fire ignited

on such a day will likely burn so hot and fast

that suppression becomes difficult. For forests, a

rating over 75 is categorised as “Extreme”.

The FFDI on 7th February 2009 in Victoria,

known as “Black Saturday”, ranged from 120 to

190, the highest FFDI values on record (Karoly,

2009). Following these fires the FFDI in Victoria

was revised and the category “Catastrophic” or

“Code Red” was added (FFDI>100). Consistent

with the increasing incidence of hot and

dry conditions, there have been a number of

declarations of Catastrophic conditions around

southern Australia since Black Saturday.

The FFDI is not only used by management

agencies to calculate risk, it has also become

an important tool for research. For example,

the probability of destruction of property in

the Sydney basin has been found to increase

significantly with increasing FFDI (Bradstock

and Gill, 2001). The FFDI has also been used

extensively in projections of fire risk in the

future (see section 7).

CategoryForest Fire

Danger Index

Grassland Fire

Danger Index

CATASTROPHIC (CODE RED)* 100 + 150 +

EXTREME 75–99 100–149

SEVERE 50–74 50–99

VERY HIGH 25–49 25–49

HIGH 12–24 12–24

LOW TO MODERATE 0–11 0–11

* In Tasmania, the “Catastrophic” category is indicated by the colour black

(Sources: CFA, 2009, Bureau of Meteorology http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/bushfire/)

IN DETAIL 1

Page 1

BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE

AUSTRALIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

LAYOUT: DETAIL BOXES

Detail boxes are a good way to

break out content that is quite

separate to the rest of the section-

based content. Generically (as

the name infers) they’re used to

explain one particular thing in

detail, the visual differentiation

allowing a person to skip that

section easily if they desire.

However, they could be used

in a number of different ways,

for example a profile on an

individual firefighter, including

images and an interview, or a full

page graphic.

The majority of the content should stay within the confines

of the main margins, while the grey

background and box heading push outside.

Note (not shown here): Due to the specific

nature of the content graphs and tables

could be more detailed on these pages than

visualised data in the rest of the document.

Note the switch from a 7 column grid to one with 6. This makes the most of what is essentially an information heavy page, and breaks up the main section content further by providing visual variety.

China aims to increase wind power by 200 GW in the next 5 years, that’s more than three times Australia’s entire electricity supply.

Box 2: What’s a watt? Key technical terms explained.Gigawatts (GW) and megawatts (MW) are measures of capacity. Capacity is the

maximum amount of electricity that a power station, or multiple power stations are

capable of producing (Climate Council 2014a).

For example, a typical wind turbine has a capacity of between 1.5 – 3 MW, and the

total capacity of Australia’s electricity supply was 56 GW (or 56,000 MW) in 2012–13

(BREE 2014b).

Gigawatthour (GWh) is a measure of electricity generated by a power station/s over a

period of time. For example, the total amount of electricity generated in Australia in

2012–13 was 249,000 GWh (BREE 2014b).

Renewable energy certificates are a kind of tradable currency representing

renewable electricity generation (one certificate = one MWh). Renewable energy

certificates are created by large-scale renewable energy power plants or small-scale

(household) renewable energy systems. Certificates can be bought and sold, before

they are eventually handed in to the Clean Energy Regulator, a Commonwealth

Government department (Clean Energy Regulator 2014a).

Page 10: GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY … · 2017. 10. 17. · 2. While renewable energy is booming globally, policy uncertainty around the Renewable Energy Target

Page 8

GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

4. About Australia’s Renewable Energy Target

In 2009, the RET was expanded with

the aim to generate at least 20 percent

of Australia’s electricity from renewable

sources by 2020 (Climate Change

Authority 2012).

The Large-Scale Renewable Energy

Target steadily increases up to a

2020 target of 41,000 GWh, requiring

electricity retailers to source more

and more renewable electricity every

year (Clean Energy Regulator 2014a

and 2014b).

To meet the increasing targets, new

renewable power stations need to be

built. And, to finance these power

stations, renewable power generators

usually need long-term contracts with

electricity retailers (sometimes called

off-take agreements) to sell their

electricity and renewable energy

certificates (ESAA 2014).

The RET aims to:

a) encourage additional renewable

electricity

b) reduce emissions of greenhouse

gases in the electricity sector

c) ensure that renewable energy sources

are ecologically sustainable.

The RET target is made up of:

› A Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (41,000 GWh annually by 2020)

– a capped target to encourage new

major renewable energy power plants,

like wind farms, large solar plants and

hydroelectric power stations (Figure 2a).

› A Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme – an uncapped scheme to

encourage small-scale renewables,

such as household solar photovoltaic

panels and solar hot water heating

(Figure 2b).

Page 11: GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY … · 2017. 10. 17. · 2. While renewable energy is booming globally, policy uncertainty around the Renewable Energy Target

Page 9CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

04ABOUT AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET

Figure 2: (from top to bottom) (a) Large-scale renewable energy and (b) Small-scale renewable energy

Page 12: GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY … · 2017. 10. 17. · 2. While renewable energy is booming globally, policy uncertainty around the Renewable Energy Target

Page 10 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

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Page 13: GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY … · 2017. 10. 17. · 2. While renewable energy is booming globally, policy uncertainty around the Renewable Energy Target

Page 11CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

04ABOUT AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET

Table 2: RET Report Card

How is the RET performing against its objectives?

Objective Comments

Encourage additional renewable electricity

Large-scale renewables

› More than 400 additional large-scale renewable power stations built (Climate Change Authority 2014).

› Increased renewable electricity from 8% (2001) to 13.1% (2013) (BREE 2014c).

Small-scale renewables

› Nearly 1.4 million rooftop solar photovoltaic systems installed (Clean Energy Regulator 2015)

Reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity sector

Australia’s RET was originally designed as a policy response to climate change (Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet 1997).

To date the RET has reduced greenhouse gas emissions by:

› 22.5 million tonnes carbon dioxide (2001–2014) – equivalent to 10% of Australia’s annual electricity emissions

In future the RET will reduce emissions by:

› 58 million tonnes carbon dioxide (2015–2020) – equivalent to annual emissions from all of Australia’s passenger cars and light commercial vehicles

› 299 million tonnes carbon dioxide (2015–2030) – equivalent to half of Australia’s current total annual emissions (Climate Change Authority 2014).

Ensure renewable energy sources are ecologically sustainable

All renewable power stations accredited under the Act comply with all federal, state and local planning and environmental laws (Commonwealth of Australia 2014).

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Page 13CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

05HOW POLICY UNCERTAINTY AFFECTS INVESTMENT

5. How policy uncertainty affects investmentTo invest in renewable energy projects,

financiers, like banks, need certainty in

government policy and legislation to be

able to forecast future electricity prices

and revenue (ESAA 2014).

When governments change existing

policies and laws, or create concern

about possible future changes, this

heightens the sense of risk for investors.

This risk is called “sovereign risk” and is

one of the most damaging sorts of risks

to investors as it undermines the legal

basis on which past investments have

been made, and increases perceptions

of future investment risk.

International investors tend to look

for countries with low sovereign risk

in which to invest. Uncertainty about

government policy raises the cost of

capital, and damages investment, jobs

and growth (Global Commission on the

Economy and Climate 2014).

The Climate Change Authority (2012,

2014) argues frequent reviews of the

RET are contributing to uncertainty and

discouraging investment. There have

been six reviews of the RET since 2001,

two of which were in 2014 (Clean Energy

Council 2014; ESAA 2014; Infographic –

‘Short History of the RET’).

In Australia, policy uncertainty caused

by two reviews of the RET together

with the repeal of the Carbon Price has

effectively frozen new investment in

renewable energy since late 2013 (ESAA

2014; Sydney Morning Herald 2014).

“Banks stated that in the period from

2002 to 2013, there was growing

interest in renewables and strong

lending liquidity… In 2014, however

there have been very few (if any)

renewable energy transactions”

(ESAA 2014)

Bloomberg New Energy Finance

reported an 88% drop in large-scale

renewable energy investment in

Australia compared with 2013 – the

lowest investment in large-scale

renewables since 2002 (Sydney

Morning Herald 2015).

All renewable energy investment

in Australia fell 35 percent in 2014

to $3.7 billion even though globally,

investment in renewables grew by

16 percent. Bloomberg New Energy

Finance (2015) reported renewable

energy investment increased to

$310 billion worldwide in 2014, led by

China, investing $89.5 billion, and

Japan $41.3 billion.

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GIGA-WHAT? EXPLAINING AUSTRALIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

Investment in large-scale renewable energy projects fell 88 percent in Australia in 2014, as global investment in renewable energy grew.

Policy uncertainty also led to a

“hiatus” in mergers and acquisitions in

renewable energy assets in Australia

last year, despite the global value of such

deals in renewables rising 13 percent

(PwC 2015).

“A reduction in renewable targets

is likely to adversely affect the

industry, given investments already

made in achieving the existing

targets. It is difficult to foresee any

pick-up in Australian renewables

deal flow until there is a more

positive and certain policy outlook

for renewable power projects.”

(PwC 2015)

Even if a political deal is reached on the

future of the RET, the key challenge will

be to shift the sense of uncertainty and

return investor confidence to ensure the

targets set out in the Act can be met.

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Page 15CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

CONCLUSION

ConclusionRenewable energy targets are a “pivotal”

policy tool for reducing carbon emissions

from electricity supply. After emissions

trading schemes, policies like the RET

which encourage large-scale renewable

energy are the next most cost-effective

way to reduce carbon emissions. Globally,

the number of countries with renewable

energy targets is increasing over time,

as are the targets themselves.

Australia is blessed with abundant

renewable energy resources, more than

500 times our current electricity needs.

Meanwhile our power plants are ageing

and will need to be closed or replaced

in coming decades.

Over more than a decade, the RET

has increased the supply of renewable

energy thereby reducing greenhouse gas

emissions from electricity generation.

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ReferencesACIL Allen Consulting (2014) RET Review Modelling. Market Modelling of Various RET Policy Options, Report to RET Review Expert Panel. Accessed at https://retreview.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/files/ACIL_Report.pdf.

AEMO (Australian Energy Market Operator) (2013a) NEM Historical Market Information Report. Accessed at http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Planning/Related-Information/Historical-Market-Information-Report.

AEMO (2013b) 100 per cent renewables study modeling outcomes. Accessed at http://www.climatechange.gov.au/sites/climatechange/files/documents/08_2013/100-percentrenewables-study-modelling-outcomesreport.pdf.

ARENA (Australian Renewable Energy Agency) (2014) What is renewable energy? Accessed at http://arena.gov.au/about-renewable-energy/.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2015) Clean Energy Investment Jumps 16%, Shaking Off Oil’s Drop. Accessed at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-09/clean-energy-investment-jumps-16-on-china-s-support-for-solar.html.

BREE (Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics)(2014a) Australian Energy Projections to 2049-50. Accessed at http://www.bree.gov.au/files/files//publications/aep/aep-2014-v2.pdf.

BREE (2014b) Energy in Australia 2014. Accessed at http://www.bree.gov.au/publications/energy-australia.

BREE (2014c), 2014 Australian energy statistics, Canberra, July, Table O Australian electricity generation, by state, by fuel type, physical units.

Clean Energy Council (2014) Lost opportunity and big costs: The impact of an unresolved RET review.

Clean Energy Regulator (2013) Renewable Energy Target: Focus on Solar.

Clean Energy Regulator (2014a) Renewable Energy Target: How the Renewable Energy Target works. Accessed at http://ret.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/About-the-scheme/How-the-RET-works.

Clean Energy Regulator (2014b) Renewable Energy Target: The Large-scale Renewable Energy Target. Accessed at http://ret.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/About-the-Schemes/lret.

Clean Energy Regulator (2015) Small-scale installations by postcode (data current at 6 January 2015). Accessed at http://ret.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/REC-Registry/Data-reports.

Climate Change Authority (2012) Renewable Energy Target Review Final Report. Accessed at http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/files/20121210%20Renewable%20Energy%20Target%20Review_MASTER.pdf.

Climate Change Authority (2014) Renewable energy target review report. Accessed at http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/files/files/reviews/ret/2014/review.pdf.

Climate Council (2014a) Australia’s Electricity Sector: Ageing, Inefficient and Unprepared. Accessed at http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/f9ba30356f697f238d0ae54e913b3faf.pdf.

Climate Council (2014b) Joint Statement on the Health Effects of Coal in Australia. Accessed at http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/800f051ad0cb47d1554179635d9f4070.pdf.

Climate Council (2014c) Lagging behind: Australia and the Global Response to Climate Change. Accessed at http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/211ea746451b3038edfb70b49aee9b6f.pdf.

Climate Council (2014d) The Australian Renewable Energy Race: Which States are Winning or Losing? Accessed at http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/ade2bc2c7b54bc88421c5c4945874581.pdf.

Climate Institute (2014) Australian views on the renewable energy target and the ideal energy mix. Accessed at http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/verve/_resources/CoN_RenewableEnergy_Factsheet_2014_FINAL.pdf.

Commonwealth of Australia (2014) Renewable Energy Target Scheme Report of the Expert Panel.

Commonwealth Renewable Energy Electricity Act 2000.

Department of the Environment (2014) Quarterly Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: June 2014, Australia’s National Greenhouse Accounts. Accessed at http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/2bd59b0d-cf8f-4bdf-8e23-5250e4361c24/files/nggi-quarterly-update-june-2014_0.pdf.

ESAA (Energy Supply Association of Australia) (2014) State of the Debt Markets for the Energy Supply Industry, prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers Australia.

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Page 17CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU

REFERENCES

Geoscience Australia and ABARE (2010) Australian Energy Resource Assessment, Canberra. Accessed at http://arena.gov.au/files/2013/08/Australian-EnergyResource-Assessment.pdf.

Global Commission on the Economy and Climate (2014) The New Climate Economy. Accessed at http://newclimateeconomy.report/.

Governor of the State of California (2015) Governor Brown Sworn In, Delivers Inaugural Address. Accessed at http://gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=18828.

Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (1997) PM Transcripts Statement by the Hon John Howard MP Safeguarding the Future: Australia’s Response to Climate Change Australian Government Media Release 20 November 1997. Accessed at http://pmtranscripts.dpmc.gov.au/browse.php?did=10595.

IEA (International Energy Agency) (2007) Contribution of Renewables to Energy Security, IEA Information Paper. Accessed at http://www.deres.org.uy/practicas_pdf/cambio_climatico/Contribution_of_renewables_to_energy_security.pdf.

Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (2015) Briefing Note: Global Energy Markets in Transition. Accessed at http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/IEEFA-BRIEFING-NOTE-Global-Energy-Markets-in-Transition_Final_15Jan2015.pdf.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2014) Summary for Policymakers, In: Climate Change 2014, Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Parliament of Australia (2014) The Renewable Energy Target: A quick guide. Accessed at http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1314/QG/RenewableEnergy.

Pitt&Sherry (2014) Electricity emissions update - data to 31 December 2013, Carbon Emissions Index cedex. Accessed at http://www.pittsh.com.au/assets/files/Cedex/CEDEX%20Electricity%20Update%20January%202014.pdf.

Pitt&Sherry (2015) Electricity emissions update - data to 31 December 2014, Carbon Emissions Index cedex. Accessed at http://www.pittsh.com.au/assets/files/Cedex/CEDEX%20Electricity%20Update%20January%202015%20Rev01.pdf.

Productivity Commission (2011) Carbon emissions policies in key economies, Research report, Canberra.

PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers) (2015) Power and Renewables Deals 2015 outlook and 2014 review. Accessed at http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/utilities/publications/assets/pwc-power-renewables-deals-2015.pdf.

REN21 (2014) Renewables 2014 Global Status Report. Accessed at http://www.ren21.net/ren21activities/globalstatusreport.aspx.

RenewEconomy (2014a) India’s energy future: Australian coal or renewable revolution? Accessed at http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/indias-energy-future-australian-coal-renewable-revolution-97615.

RenewEconomy (2014b) South Australia sets 50% renewable energy target for 2025. Accessed at http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/south-australia-sets-50-renewable-energy-target-for-2025-2020.

Sydney Morning Herald (2015) Australia’s large-scale renewable investment dives in 2014. Accessed at http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australias-largescale-renewable-investment-dives-in-2014-20150112-12mbis.html.

The Conversation (2014) FactCheck: does Australia have too much electricity? Accessed at http://theconversation.com/factcheck-does-australia-have-too-much-electricity-31505.

US Environmental Protection Agency (2014) Non-hydroelectric Renewable Energy. Accessed at http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-and-you/affect/non-hydro.html.

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Image Credits Cover photo: “Brown Hill Range wind turbines at sunrise” by Flickr user David Clarke licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Page 9: Figure 2a Large Scale Renewables: “Albany Wind Farm” by Flickr user Bentley Smith licensed under CC by –NC-ND 2.0, accessed at https://www.flickr.com/photos/superciliousness/29624786

Page 9: Figure 2b Small Scale Renewables: “Solar panels on old home” by Flickr user Michael Coghlan licensed under CC by –NC-ND 2.0, accessed at https://www.flickr.com/photos/mikecogh/9223731920

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