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GLGi: Solid-State DiskTechnologies, Applications & Market
Opportunities, Forecast & Risk
Roert !itko"
#resident
!est"ood Marketing, LL$
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2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved
$ouncil Me%er iograph'
Robert Wito! is the "resident at West!ood #aretingLL$, a compan% providing o& business development andmaret intelligence services to the 'ash memor% industr%.
(e is an e)pert on 'ash memor% applications &or mobiletelephones, digital cameras, and other consumerelectronic devices. "reviousl%, he served in senior salesand mareting management positions at *#AR+ #odular
+echnologies, the leading independent memor% module
manu&acturer in the !orld, at Le)ar #edia, !here hemanaged -# and +echnolog% *ales and #areting, andat #*%stems, !here as /irector o& *ales and #aretinghe brought the *1 lash /rive to the 3orth Americanmaret.
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2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved
Topics
Applications & (alue proposition
)e' co%ponents & supplier o(er(ie"
Market *orecasts & re(enue %etrics
Disrupti(e & alternati(e technologies +iolinMe%or', #liant, Teas Me%or', Solid DataS'ste%.
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2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved
Aout GLG /nstitute
GLG Institute 4GLGi*#5 is a pro&essional organi6ation &ocused oneducating business and investment pro&essionals through inperson meetings. It is designed to revolutioni6e the pro&essionaleducation maret b% putting the po!er o& programming into thehands o& the GLG communit%.
GLGi hosts hundreds o& *eminars !orld!ide each %ear.
GLGi clients receive t!o seats to all *eminars in all "ractice Areas.
GLGi7s !ebsite enables clients to9 "ropose *eminar topics, agenda items and locations
9 :ie! and R*:" to scheduled and proposed *eminars
9 Receive a dail% brie;ng !ith ne! posts on %our &avorite ticers,sub
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2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved
Gerson Lehr%an Group $ontacts
=ohn Aronsohn:ice "resident and
+#+ Global Research (ead,
Gerson Lehrman Group
8>0 +hird Avenue, ?th loor
3e! @or, 3@ 0022
22?8BCDEC
0 +hird Avenue, ?th loor
3e! @or, 3@ 0022
22?8BCD8B
alibermanFglgroup.com
$arl% "isarri"rocess #anager
Gerson Lehrman Group
8>0 +hird Avenue, ?th loor
3e! @or, 3@ 0022
22E>0BC>
cpisarriFglgroup.com
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]8/10/2019 GLGi Solid-State Drive (SSD) Overview_Bob Witkow_3.26.08
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2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved
I#"R+A3+ GLG I3*+I++- /I*$LAI#-R 1% maing contact !ith thisHthese $ouncil #embers andparticipating in this event, %ou speci;call% acno!ledge, understand and agree that %ou must notsee out material nonpublic or con;dential in&ormation &rom $ouncil #embers. @ou understandand agree that the in&ormation and material provided b% $ouncil #embers is provided &or %our o!ninsight and educational purposes and ma% not be redistributed or displa%ed in an% &orm !ithoutthe prior !ritten consent o& Gerson Lehrman Group. @ou agree to eep the material provided b%$ouncil #embers &or this event and the business in&ormation o& Gerson Lehrman Group, includingin&ormation about $ouncil #embers, con;dential until such in&ormation becomes no!n to thepublic generall% and e)cept to the e)tent that disclosure ma% be reuired b% la!, regulation orlegal process. @ou must respect an% agreements the% ma% have and understand the $ouncil#embers ma% be constrained b% obligations or agreements in their abilit% to consult on certaintopics and ans!er certain uestions. "lease note that $ouncil #embers do not provide investmentadvice, nor do the% provide pro&essional opinions. $ouncil #embers !ho are la!%ers do notprovide legal advice and no attorne%client relationship is established &rom their participation inthis pro
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Contents
SSD Technology
SSD & Key Components Overview SSD - HDD Characteristics
Technical Comparison SSC vs. HDD Isses
SSD !pplications "nterprise Storage
In#stry $ea#ers %ortale Compting In#stry $ea#ers
'ilitary ( !erospace
)orecast Data %oints *!*D Deman# )orecast
SSD Deman# )orecast y !pplication Ostacles to !#option !lternative ( Disrptive Technologies +estions & !nswers !ot the %resenter
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SSD Technology
! Soli#-State Dis, SSD is a #ata storage #evice that emlates a
har# #is, #rive HDD *!*D )lash SSD/s are essentially arrays o0 0lash memory #evices
which incl#e a controller that electrically an# mechanicallyemlate1 an# are so0tware compatile with magnetic HDD/s
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SSD & Key Components Overview
*!*D )lash
ControllerCaptive I% DevelopmentSilicon 'otion *!SD!+2 SI'OHyperstone s. o0 C'$ 'icrosystems1 $S"2 C'$.$
%hison TS"2 %hison Company 3455I% 6oal 'icroelectronics %rivate Company Cheng#1 China
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SSD - HDD Technical Comparison
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SSD vs. HDD Isses
+. SSD access times are great1 t write spee#s are a stepac,1 so why wol# I want an SSD7
!. Small rea#s 8, are 49: 0aster than similar rea#s on anHDD.
+. SSD write per0ormance still leaves mch to e #esire#7;. This is where SSD man0actrers #i00erentiate their
pro#ct.
+. I hear# that *!*D per0ormance is #egra#ing as a reslt o0
#ie shrin,s an# increases in its per cell.
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SSD !pplications
"nterprise Storage2 *ow
%ortale Compting2 49=9 or ==
'ilitary ( !erospace2 $egacy
Consmer "lectronic 'e#ia %layers are *ot$i,ely Can#i#ates 0or SSD
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"nterprise Storage
Drivers ;ea# %er0ormance
Increase *etwor, Capacity
%ower Savings
SSD 'an0actrers ST"C1 'tron1 S'!;T 'o#lar
>yers ( 'ar,et Drivers
=st
tier2 "'C1 H% Storagewor,s1 I>'1 HDS 4n#tier2 Dell1 *et!pp1 S6I1 +antm1 Sn
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SSD - "nterprise $ea#ers
'tron %rivately Hel#1 499?1 6yeonggi-Do1 S. Korea
Claims 0astest enterprise class SSD
@ery close ties to Seol *ational Aniversity an# Samsng
Distrition #eal with Imation who is etter ,nown 0or optical
Controller I% 0rom In#ilinB1 0on#e# y other S*A gra#ates
S'!;T 'o#lar *!SD!+2 S'OD1 =531 )remont1 C! ?= o0 499E/s F343.8 million revene was generate# y H% & Cisco
S'!;T recently prchase# !#tron
Close ties to )rancisco %artners1 Silverla,e1 & Samsng
ST"C *!SD!+2 ST"C1 =531 Santa !na1 C!
Ges IO%S is the highest per0orming enterprise class SSD
ST"C/s #i00erentiator is its in-hose controller technology
'argins col# e pressre# as competitors improve pro#ct per0ormance
4 o0 499E/s F=33.E million revene came 0rom S'!;T 'o#lar
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SSD - "nterprise $ea#ers
F=99 non-*!*D >O' in "nterprise SSD/s.
JF.99 non-*!*D >O' in *oteoo, SSD/s
F=.99 non-*!*D >O' in eee%C an# O$%C
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%ortale Compting
Drivers %ower Savings
+ic,er >oot
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SSD %ortale Compting $ea#ers
Samsng
6yeonggi-Do1 S. Korea
84.= *!*D 'ar,etShare
In-hose SSD controller#evelopment1 spplemente#
with Silicon 'otioncontrollers
$owest cost mo#el #eto highest yiel#s1 not 0romthe most a#vance#technology
Investing heavily in%C;!' which showspromise in *@' an# SSDapplications
SanDis,
*!SD!+2 S*DK
=5331 'ilpitas1 C!
499E Sales o0 F.5 illion
F=E >illion Toshia L@ )aCap"B throgh 49==
4( o0 499E ;oyaltiesgenerate# y Samsng.;oyalty renegotiation is on-going
!ll crrent SSD/s are iltwith Samsng S$C
)orecast o0 += /93 '$CSSD has een pshe# ot to+8 /93
Toshia
To,yo1 Lapan
4E.5 *!*D 'ar,et Share
%artners with SanDis, on)a #evelopment
F=?.E >illion SanDis, L@0or )a/s 8 an# 1 which willMa#rple pro#ction capacity
To #ate1 Toshia has sol#SanDis, #esigne# *!*D.*ow starting to #evelop their
own *!*D #esigns
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'ilitary ( !erospace
Drivers ;eliaility
!nnal Anits 49K
*ot "Bciting CharacteriNe# y High 'argins
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)orecast Data %oints
HDD ;evene2 . C!6; 499? - 49==
SSD ;evene 499E - 49=4 C!6;2 E=.
0rom FE million to F.8 illion
SSD !verage Capacity2 89 - 8 C!6; 0rom 499? 49==
0rom 4 6> to 499 6> *!*D cost erosion will contine naate#2 499? - E5.8 >enchmar, 3 6 '$C
499E - E.=
4993 TD - 9
SSD an# HDD pricing will near parity in += 49== "Bpect SSD/s to soa, p 49 o0 *!*D capacity y +=
49=9
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*!*D Deman# ( )orecast
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SSD Deman# ( )orecast
SSD Unit Demand Forecast
499E 4993 4995 49=9 49==*oteoo, SSD Anits =.= = 4 8*oteoo, Anits ==8 =4 =85 =? =E9SSD %enetration ;ate =.9 8.9 =9.= =.4 49.9
Des,top SSD Anits 9 9 =. 4 Des,top Anits =?9 = =9 =89 =49
SSD %enetration ;ate 9.9 9.9 9.9 =.8 4.
"nterprise SSD Anits 9.9= 9.4 9. 9.E ="nterprise Anits 5 5 =9 == ==SSD %enetration ;ate 9.= 4.4 .9 ?.8 5.9
Total SSD Anits =.== .4 =E 4E.E E.=
'illion ( nits
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Ostacles to !#option
"nterprise CIO/s want proo0 that 0lash memory will not wear ot
"ntry point o0 =9: the cost o0 magnetic or optical storage is signi0icant
'agnetic Storage "rosion F=.99( 6> in 499 to F.4 in 49==
%ortale Compting
%rice1 %rice1 %rice SanDis, state# in ?(9E that signi0icant a#option wol# e seen when 0lash ero#e#
to : magnetic
Seagate is proPecting no signi0icant a#option ntil *!*D ero#es to 4: magnetic
I recently gol0e# with Q4 IT eBective at K%'6. He has a %C( seat #get1 an# isnot willing to pay any premim ntil har# F savings are proven
!lternative & Disrptive Technologies
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!lternative ( Disrptive Technologies
Soli# State 'emory !ppliance @iolin 'emory
%liant Technology
TeBas 'emory Systems
Soli# Data Systems Tra#itional 'agnetic
Hyri# HDD
Technical >rea,throghs ( Cost "rosion
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Soli#-State 'emory !ppliance
"stalishe# %layers2 TeBas 'emory Systems
=5E31 %rivately Hel#
H+ in Hoston1 T:
Soli# Data Systems=551 %rivately Hel#
H+ in Santa Clara1 C!
"merging Competitors2 %liant Technology
499?1 %rivately Hel#1 )on#ers are Storage In#stry $egen#s1 $ightspee#@entres !-;on# in )erary 49931 H+ in 'ilpitas1 C!
@iolin 'emory4991 %rivately Hel#1 ;ational
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+estions & !nswers