Global biomass availability in light of policy development – iLUC Focus

Petr Havlík, Michael Obersteiner, Erwin Schmid, Uwe A. Schneider

AND MANY OTHER COLLABORATORS

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Forestry Program, Austria

University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU),

Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Austria

University of Hamburg, Sustainability and Global Change (FNU), Germany

BECOTEPS Workshops – Non Food Chains, Brussels, 6-8 October 2009

What I will NOT talk about!!

www.cc-tame.eu – European Policy Value of R&D policy portfolios Impact of stable expectations on investment (Climate Policy) Flexibility (Fuel Switching,polyproduction) Portfolio

Economies of Scale (BE&CCS vs. PolyPr)

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…Biomass: The Serving Butler for Multiple Masters

Climate Protection

EnergySecurity

Rural Development

Global Energy Portfolio – 2DG Global Energy Portfolio – 2DG TargetTarget

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Source: Obersteiner et al. forthcoming

Land is Finite Biomass Availability

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II. Model: GLOBIOMII. Model: GLOBIOMGlobal Biomass Optimization ModelCoverage: the Earth, Ag-For-BiomassBasic resolution: 28 regions

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Wood Processing

Bioenergy Processing

Livestock Feeding

Unmanaged Forest

Managed Forest

Short RotationTree Plantations

Cropland

Grassland

Other Natural Vegetation

Energy products:Ethanol (1st gen.)Biodiesel (1st gen.)Ethanol (2nd gen)BTLHeatPowerGasFuel wood

Forest products:SawnwoodWoodpulp

Livestock:Animal Calories

Crops:BarleyCornCotton …

II. Model presentation: Supply II. Model presentation: Supply chainschains

BIOPHYSICAL INPUT DATABIOPHYSICAL INPUT DATASimulation Units (SimU) = HRU & PX30 & Country zone

Source: Skalský et al. (2007)

Country HRU*PX30

PX5

SimU delineation relatedstatistics on LC classes and

Cropland management systems

reference for geo-coded data on crop management;

input statistical data for LC/LU economic optimization;

LC&LUstat

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• Weather• Hydrology• Erosion• Carbon sequestration• Crop growth• Crop rotations• Fertilization• Tillage• Irrigation• Drainage• Pesticide• Grazing• Manure

Processes

Major outputs:Crop yields, Environmental effects (e.g. soil carbon, )

40 crops (>85% of harvested area)4 management systems: High input, Low input, Irrigated, Subsistence

II. Model presentation: Cropland - II. Model presentation: Cropland - EPICEPIC

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II. Model presentation: EPIC - YieldsII. Model presentation: EPIC - Yields

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II. Model presentation: Forests – II. Model presentation: Forests – G4MG4MStep 2: Forest growth functions estimated from yield tables

Major outputs:Mean annual incrementTree sizeSawn wood suitabilityHarvesting cost

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Productivity distribution

II. Model presentation: Forest II. Model presentation: Forest plantationsplantations

Woody Bioenergy Supply for 2000-2100 B1 (Price < 6$/GJ)

Source: Rokitianskii et al. 2006

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III. Model application for iLUCIII. Model application for iLUCSimulation horizon: 2000–2020

Main drivers: Population (IIASA SRES projections)Diets (FAO, 2006)Bio-energy demand (POLES team, JRC Seville, and WEO, 2008)(GDP, technological change,…)

Scenarios

1st dimension:

+/- 100 biofuel mandates WEO 2020 reference

2nd dimension: POLICIES

1. Global scale of mandates – EU27 x World

2. Trade with biofuels – YES x NO

3. Deforestation allowed – YES x NO

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III. Model application: Scenarios III. Model application: Scenarios settingsetting

Mha, based on WEO 2020 targets, If not constrained (e.g. by REDD) important deforestation occurs

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World biofuel targets, no trade

World biofuel targets, with trade

EU biofuel targets, no trade

EU biofuel targets, with trade

Deforestation due to biofuels expansion

In Mha, EU mandates in 2020 put pressure on deforestation elsewhere even without trade – iLUC!

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PacificAsia

Africa SouthAsia

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Deforestation due to EU biofuel expansion

With tradeWithout trade

Crop price index, avoiding deforestation further increases the effect of biofuels on crop prices

With trade, allowing deforestation

With trade, preventing deforestation

Without trade, allowing deforestation

Without trade, preventing deforestation

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World biofuels expansion and crop prices

19Avoiding deforestation further increases the effect of biofuels on crop prices.

Crop Price IndexCrop Price IndexBTL ETHANOL

Source: Havlik et al. 2008

21Crop management adjustments necessary to avoid higher price increases.

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Biofuel mandates lead to increases of Soil N2O emissions.

REDD policies may slow them down.

Biofuel policy benefitsTime is crucial!!!!

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Total carbon balance [MtCO2eq/year]: T30

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V. Conclusions iLUCV. Conclusions iLUC

- Biofuel expansion generates important iLUC GHG emissions.

- iLUC depends more on the possibility to source biofuels efficiently on

international markets than on the global scale of production,

ALTHOUGH for the larger scale iLUC per energy unit increases.

- Policies (like REDD) aiming at reducing the negative (i)LUC effects

will fortify the pressure on crop prices,

UNLESS management systems adapted (feasible?)

- Unit iLUC effects contingent on the global multiple policy setting

to be taken into account if iLUC factors should be calculated

…Biomass: The Serving Butler for Multiple Masters

Climate Protection

EnergySecurity

Rural Development

•R&D now!•Diffuse later!•Trade & LCA!•Stable Expectations