The Global Forest and Agricultural The Global Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization ModelSector Optimization Model

Uwe A. SchneiderUwe A. Schneider

Christine SchleupnerChristine Schleupner

Kerstin JantkeKerstin Jantke

Erwin SchmidErwin Schmid

Michael ObersteinerMichael Obersteiner

Energy Modeling Forum 22: Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilization Energy Modeling Forum 22: Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilization and in Transition, Tsukuba, Japan, December 12-14, 2006and in Transition, Tsukuba, Japan, December 12-14, 2006

Why Global FASOM?Why Global FASOM?

Global TradeGlobal Trade

Pollution LeakagePollution Leakage

Global ExternalitiesGlobal Externalities

Heterogeneity Heterogeneity – SoilsSoils– Land managementLand management

Methodological Developments Methodological Developments

1.1. Regional Expansion (Global FASOM)Regional Expansion (Global FASOM)

2.2. Soil State DynamicsSoil State Dynamics

3.3. BiodiversityBiodiversity

1. Regional Expansion1. Regional Expansion

Global FASOMGlobal FASOM

FASOM HistoryFASOM History

US (1993-)US (1993-)

EU (2004-)EU (2004-)

Global (2006-)Global (2006-)

US/EU RegionsUS/EU Regions

Resources Land Use

Technologies

Processing Technologies

Products Markets

Inputs

Limits

Supply Functions

Trade

Demand

Capacities

Environmental Impacts

Non-US/EU RegionsNon-US/EU Regions

Resources Land Use

Technologies

Processing Technologies

Products Markets

Inputs

Limits

Supply Functions

Trade

Demand

Capacities

Environmental Impacts

Supply

TasksTasks

US + EU FASOM + othersUS + EU FASOM + others

Balance Regional ResolutionBalance Regional Resolution

Land use in non-US / non-EULand use in non-US / non-EU

– Microeconomics (Data)Microeconomics (Data)

– Environmental impacts (Simulation)Environmental impacts (Simulation)

2. Soil State Dynamics2. Soil State Dynamics

Why Soil State Dynamics?Why Soil State Dynamics?

Vulnerability (Humus, Salt)Vulnerability (Humus, Salt)

Climate MitigationClimate Mitigation

ProductivityProductivity

Desertification, SalinizationDesertification, Salinization

Soil Carbon DeterminantsSoil Carbon Determinants

Crop ChoiceCrop Choice

TillageTillage

IrrigationIrrigation

FertilizationFertilization

Residue MgtResidue Mgt

Soil CarbonSoil Carbon

Soil Soil

Carbon Carbon

ChangeChange

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

10 20 30 40 50

per

cent

ag

e ch

an

ge years

Cereal Straw RemovalCereal Straw Removal

Soil Organic Carbon

Yields

Soi

l Org

anic

Car

bon

(tC

/ha/

20cm

)

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0 10 20 30 40 50Time (years)

Wheat-Lucerne 3/3

Wheat-Lucerne 6/3

No-till wheat-fallow

Tilled wheat-fallow

PreviousPrevious

Curse of DimensionalityCurse of Dimensionality

Use of constant emission/sequestration Use of constant emission/sequestration

coefficientscoefficients

New DevelopmentNew Development

Markov chain using soil organic carbon as Markov chain using soil organic carbon as

state variablestate variable

Soil Carbon Transition ProbabilitiesSoil Carbon Transition Probabilities

SOC1 SOC2 SOC3 SOC4 SOC5 SOC6 SOC7 SOC8

SOC1 0.81 0.19

SOC2 1

SOC3 0.09 0.91

SOC4 0.31 0.69

SOC5 0.5 0.5

SOC6 0.74 0.26

SOC7 1

SOC8 0.04 0.96

No-till wheat-Fallow

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0 10 20 30 40 50Time (years)

Wheat-Lucerne 3/3

Wheat-Lucerne 6/3

No-till wheat-fallow

Tilled wheat-fallowSoi

l Org

anic

Car

bon

(tC

/ha/

20cm

)

ExtensionsExtensions

Soil Carbon TypesSoil Carbon Types

Salt Salt

3. Biodiversity3. Biodiversity

Previous TreatmentPrevious Treatment

So far biodiversity is ignored in FASOMSo far biodiversity is ignored in FASOM

Comparable models use biodiversity scoresComparable models use biodiversity scores

New DevelopmentNew Development

Species or habitat requirementsSpecies or habitat requirements

Habitat supplyHabitat supply

Currently limited to wetlandsCurrently limited to wetlands

Vertebrate species as surrogates for Vertebrate species as surrogates for biodiversitybiodiversity

– 16 amphibians16 amphibians– 4 reptiles4 reptiles– 9 mammals9 mammals– 43 birds43 birds

Habitat RequirementsHabitat Requirements

72 wetland species of European conservation

concern

Multiple species may require the same Multiple species may require the same habitathabitat

Eligible habitats must be of minimum sizeEligible habitats must be of minimum size

Habitat RequirementsHabitat Requirements

Habitat SupplyHabitat Supply

Ecosystem TypeEcosystem Type– 1. Mires (Bogs, Fens)1. Mires (Bogs, Fens)– 2. Wet forests (Alluvial Forests, Swamp Forests)2. Wet forests (Alluvial Forests, Swamp Forests)– 3. Natural Grasslands3. Natural Grasslands– 4. Open waters (Running Waters, Standing Waters)4. Open waters (Running Waters, Standing Waters)

Ecosystem QualityEcosystem Quality1.1. Existing, InhabitedExisting, Inhabited

2.2. Existing, Not inhabitedExisting, Not inhabited

3.3. PotentialPotential

Peatland (Fens, Bogs)

Wetforests

Marshes, Reeds, Sedges

Open Waters

Peatland (Fens, Bogs)

Wetforests

Marshes, Reeds, Sedges

Open Waters

Existing WetlandsPotential WetlandsOpen Waters

Existing WetlandsPotential WetlandsOpen Waters

ConclusionsConclusions

Land use (change) may play an important Land use (change) may play an important new role via climate change mitigation new role via climate change mitigation However, land use impacts are complex However, land use impacts are complex and affect multiple non-market goodsand affect multiple non-market goodsWe should not solve today’s problem by We should not solve today’s problem by creating another one tomorrowcreating another one tomorrowLand use under multiple environmental Land use under multiple environmental objectives may be much different than objectives may be much different than under single (climate) objectivesunder single (climate) objectives

Global Environmental TreatiesGlobal Environmental Treaties

Framework Convention on Climate Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1992)Change (UNFCCC, 1992)

Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, 1992)1992)

Convention to Combat Desertification Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD, 1996)(UNCCD, 1996)