JBICI DISCUSSION PAPER

No.13

How to Influence Policy in the African Energy Sector A Guide for Researchers

Global Development Network - Bridging Research and Policy Project

African Energy Policy Research Network

July 2006

JBIC Institute

JAPAN BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

JBICI DISCUSSION PAPER

No.13

How to Influence Policy in the African Energy Sector A Guide for Researchers

African Energy Policy Research Network

July 2006

JBIC Institute

JAPAN BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

‘JBICI Discussion Paper’ is based on the research done by staffs and/or fellow researchers of

the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) and published by the JBIC Institute. Views

expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not reflect those of the JBIC Institute.

JBIC Institute, Japan Bank for International Cooperation

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© 2006 by JBIC Institute. All rights reserved.

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AFREPREN Research Team Team Coordinators

Stephen Karekezi, Director, African Energy Policy Research Network, AFREPREN Nairobi, Kenya Bereket Kebede, Lecturer, School of Development Studies, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Jack Muthui, African Energy Policy Research Network, AFREPREN Secretariat, Nairobi, Kenya John Kimani, African Energy Policy Research Network, AFREPREN Secretariat, Nairobi, Kenya

Country Researchers

Botswana

Mr Godfrey Themba,University of Botswana

Kenya Mr Paul Mbuthi, Ministry of Energy, Kenya

Tanzania

Dr Suma Kaare, Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF), Tanzania

Uganda

Mr Geoffrey Kamese, National Association of Professional Environmentalists (NAPE)

Zimbabwe Mr Maxwell Mapako, Biomass Users Network, Zimbabwe / University of Cape Town, South Africa Mr Cornelius Mzezewa, Consultant (Former Director of Energy, Zimbabwe)

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List of Acronyms AFREPREN African Energy Policy Research Network BEMP Botswana Energy Master Plan EAD Energy Affairs Division FGD Focus Group Discussions GDN Global Development Network GSMD Geological Survey and Mines Department GTZ Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit IMF International Monetary Fund JICA Japan International Co-operation Agency MDG Millennium Development Goals NEPAD New Partnership for African Development NBES National Biomass Energy Strategy NGO Non Governmental Organizations NRSE New and Renewable Sources of Energy PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers PV Photo Voltaic TATEDO Tanzania Traditional Energy Development Organization UN United Nations

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Table of Contents

List of Acronyms .........................................................................................................................ii

Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................iii

Policy Brief..................................................................................................................................iv

1.0 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................1

2.0 Background and Brief Review of the Region’s Energy Sector ........................................4

3.0. The Policy Making Process and the Research-Policy Link in Eastern and Southern Africa....................................................................................................................................11

3.1. THE ENERGY POLICY FORMULATION PROCESS......................................................................11 3.2. INSTITUTIONAL RESTRUCTURING AND TURNOVER OF STAFF...................................................14 3.3. WHO ARE THE MAJOR ACTORS? .........................................................................................17 3.4. THE WIDER CONTEXT.........................................................................................................19

4.0 Energy policy research in Eastern and Southern Africa ...............................................23 4.1. RESEARCH INPUTS DURING THE FORMULATION OF ENERGY POLICY .......................................23 4.2. CHARACTERISTIC FEATURES OF INFLUENTIAL RESEARCH UNDERTAKINGS ..............................26 4.3. THE STATE OF THE RESEARCH-POLICY LINK AND FUTURE PROSPECTS....................................33

5.0 Summary and recommendations ......................................................................................34 5.1. SUMMARY ..........................................................................................................................34 5.2. RECOMMENDATIONS...........................................................................................................36

6.0 References...........................................................................................................................41 A1.1. TIMELINE ANALYSIS ..........................................................................................................45 A1.2. TEXT ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................47 A1.3 FOCUS GROUP DISCUSSIONS .............................................................................................47 A1.4. SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE..................................................................................................49

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Policy Brief How to Influence Policy in the Energy Sector in Africa: Lessons from Eastern and Southern Africa The Global Development Network (GDN) coordinates a project that examines the link between research and policy in developing countries. As part of this larger project, the African Energy Policy Research Network (AFREPREN) undertook a study examining the research-policy link in the energy sectors of five Eastern and Southern Africa countries - Botswana, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe. The AFREPREN study largely focused on the preparation of the national energy policy documents in these countries. Country reports presenting the findings from the five countries and a regional report synthesising the comparative results have been compiled. The regional report also incorporates the findings of a parallel UNDP-sponsored study on the power sector which is a similar study to the GDN one that AFREPREN undertook. The central objective of the AFREPREN study was to assess the impact of research on energy policy and propose options that will ensure greater impact. To achieve this objective, the study identified research studies that had significantly influenced policy – particularly the national energy policy documents – and consequently to examine their characteristics so as to establish the critical features that made them potent in influencing policy. Different research instruments for collecting various types of information and for triangulating data have been used, notably:

• Timeline analysis (tracer studies) traced back the events that led to the formulation of policy in order to identify factors that influenced the research-policy link.

• Text analysis of the policy documents identified research projects that have influenced policy.

• Focus groups of policy makers and researchers systematically discussed issues pertaining to the research-policy link.

• Structured survey questionnaires gathered data on the opinions of policy makers and researchers.

The analysis of information gathered through these different means provided a mechanism for cross-checking and verifying study findings and enlightens us on the nature and problems of the research-policy link. In the context of GDN’s analytical framework and explanatory variables (namely: evidence, links, contexts and external influence), the main findings of the study include the following: Evidence: Text and timeline analysis in conjunction with focus group discussions identified a small number of research undertakings that have influenced the energy policy formulation in each of the study countries. These small number of research undertakings were further examined to identify their characteristics. Almost all the researches identified as influential have been commissioned by the government, irrespective of their nature (i.e whether macroeconomic energy demand forecast, macroeconomic impact of investment or micro-household data survey and analysis). Generally comprehensive policy oriented researches are driven by the demand from policy making rather than independent research leading the way - partly a reflection of the absence of a strong epistemic community in the regions energy sector. All the influential researches directly involve policy makers. Research organisations specialising mainly in energy are more influential than those involved in many areas of specialisation. The reputation of institutions as whole as well as those of the experts working in them, the past work done by the organisations, the quality and timing of work are important characteristics that determine how influential research undertakings are.

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It is worth noting that, in several cases, regardless of the nature of the research (i.e whether macroeconomic energy demand forecast, macroeconomic impact of investment or micro-household data survey and analysis), influential researches have a significant level of technical details with the proviso, discussed later, that access to macroeconomic expertise can be advantageous. This is probably because most of the energy experts involved in the policy making process have technical academic backgrounds (mainly engineering), hence value highly technical reports. This characteristic makes influential researches in the energy sector unique compared to those in other sectors e.g. agriculture, health, water, etc, that may not have a heavy technical bias as the targeted experts largely have non-technical academic backgrounds. An important lesson learnt from comparing the power and renewables sub-sectors is that the sub-sector whose policies are an integral component of national development plans attracts more funding from the national budget than the sub-sector that is not part of these plans. Political contexts: The restructuring of government ministries in all the study countries has created a spur for the development of a comprehensive energy policy. In most countries, the establishment of independent ministries of energy or departments of energy within broader ministries was a catalyst for the preparation of energy policy documents. The creation of an independent body seems to push the energy agenda to the fore and concentrates manpower specialised in energy. These organisational changes have helped to raise the profile of energy studies. The policy formulation processes in the study countries exhibit many similarities among which the fact that the initial stage where the agenda is determined is firmly controlled by the government in all the study countries. And this initial stage is crucial since it is the stage where most of the input from research occurs. Due to the difficulties of intervening into the policy process when it is at the cabinet level or when it is being discussed inside parliament, the importance of the first stage cannot be exaggerated. In addition, the lack of a very competitive political system, civic society and absence of a strong epistemic community in the energy sector are also structural problems that make interventions in the latter stages of the policy formulation process difficult. The energy policy formulation in all the study countries took an inordinately long time; this is confirmed by both the timeline analysis as well as the opinion of the majority of the surveyed policy makers and researchers. This long drawn process has probably negatively impacted on the research-policy link because on the one hand, the absence of a strong epistemic community makes it difficult to keep researchers interested for long periods of time and, on the other hand, many issues are overtaken by events. Botswana appears to be a unique case study in contrast to the other four country case studies. Its renewable energy policy is entrenched in the national development plan. This has resulted into a positive outcome with the increase in budgetary allocation to the renewables sub-sector growing at almost the same rate as the power sub-sector. The Botswana case study demonstrates that the existence of a long-established practice of integrating all sub-sectors into the macro-economic framework allows research in relatively new sub-sectors such as renewables to have significant policy impact. Links: Compared to the role played by new policy institutions and recruitment of skilled personnel, the quality of key personnel seems to play an important role. This is expected in an environment where an epistemic community is weak or non-existent and institutions are relatively weak as in the study countries. The high rate of staff turnover, both at ministerial as well as middle levels, has significantly affected both the policy and research capacity of government energy institutions and has also affected the research-policy link. In all the case study countries, governments have consulted stakeholders in the preparation of the energy policy document. But as the results from the survey questionnaires indicate, researchers and policy makers think that more consultation of stakeholders is required. A number of researchers are of the opinion that the consultation is cosmetic and at that stage, policy makers have already made up their minds. The surveyed respondents also think that the

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dissemination of the national energy policy document is still not adequate. But in spite of these reservations, most of the respondents think that the national energy policy document covers most of the relevant issues that need to be covered. Other contexts and external influence: When looking at the overall context within which the energy policies were formulated, the recent wave of economic reforms in the form of structural adjustment programmes (that are primarily driven by the World Bank, IMF and key ODA partners) has significantly affected the general policy environment. Even though the overall policy environment is affected by the reform programmes, in many instances the policies at the macro level and the energy sector seem to develop in parallel in many of the study countries, with the probable exception of Botswana. For example, how specific components of the energy policy are to be related to the poverty reduction objective of the reform programmes is not clear. In addition to the structural adjustment programmes other exogenous contextual factors – internal as well external – have also influenced the energy policy process. Changes in politics, macro-economy, world oil prices, internal shocks like drought, regional initiative like NEPAD and other regional economic groupings, specific projects, etc. have influenced policy formulation. Botswana’s case appears to be unique as policies for the energy sector development are an integral part of the macro-economic policy making process. Consequently, both the renewables and power sub-sectors have successfully attracted a significant amount of funding from the national budget. In addition, the aforementioned policy making process appears to be a continuous development that has greatly benefited from the country’s good governance and political stability, Based on in-depth analysis of the data, key policy-related recommendations relevant for researchers and policy makers in Africa arising from the study are highlighted below:

1. Specialisation of research/consultancy organisations is crucial for influencing policy: Specialisation of the research/consultancy organisations in energy related issues is an important factor that can determine the extent to which research influences policy. This comes up repeatedly in the study countries. All influential institutions that were identified have specialised on energy issues. Although specialisation in energy is advantageous, in-house skills or access to external expertise in macro-economic analysis is important. Similarly, policy-makers should forge links with research institutions with both specialised energy and macro-economic analysis expertise. In addition, policy-makers in the ministries of energy should also closely collaborate with their counterparts in the ministries of finance and planning in order to access the macro-economic analysis expertise resident in those ministries.

2. Adapt to the advent of a more competitive political system: As indicated above, most of

the research input in the energy policy formulation happens at the initial stage. As political systems become more competitive – a trend observed in many developing countries – both researchers and policy makers should be open and ready to contest policy issues at different stages. For example, more debate and discussions should be encouraged when the policy document is being considered by the cabinet or parliament. However, in the absence of a strong epistemic community in the energy sector to take lead, the deliberations on the final policy document is left in the hands of Parliamentarians most of whom perceive energy issues as too technical to aggressively debate (with a few exceptions, notably Uganda).

3. Address the excessively lengthy energy policy making process: The formulation of the

energy policy document took too long in all the study countries. This is mainly because of the pre-occupation of policy makers with other presumably pressing tasks. This kind of stop-go policy engagement undermines the research-policy link. But the lack of research output that is directly relevant to policy also lengthens the policy making process. This calls for a change in the tradition of policy formulation by policy makers and a re-orientation of research priorities by researchers.

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4. Adapt to the short-term continued dominance of energy policy formulation by the

government: As suggested above, in the long run researchers should attempt to influence policy formulation at different stages. In the short run, the dominance of the government in initiating the policy process is expected to continue. Policy makers should increase consultations with researchers and stakeholders at this stage. And researchers should exert as much of their influence as possible during this early stage.

5. There are inherent advantages in publishing the National Energy Policy as a

Parliamentary Act: It appears that if the National Energy Policy is to be a legislative Act, it is enhances the potential for the use of research findings. This is because, it increases the opportunities for research findings to be used by Members of Parliament either at the stage where the National Assembly adopts the Energy Policy as a Sessional Paper or when debating the Bill in Parliament. However, in order to effectively discuss the Bill in Parliament, politicians/policy makers should be engaged with researchers in order to benefit from the latter’s research findings.

6. Integrate energy policy with wider policy frameworks: All the study countries as well as

other African and developing countries have currently made poverty alleviation the centrepiece of government policy. But the poverty alleviation aspect is not well-integrated into sector level policies – including the energy policy. Policy makers should always examine how sector level policies fit into the overarching objective of poverty alleviation. Researchers should also ensure that their energy-related analysis should take the poverty dimension into account.

7. Collect energy related data with welfare monitoring surveys: The statistical offices of

most developing countries run periodic large-scale welfare monitoring surveys to identify changes in poverty. These surveys can collect additional useful energy-related data with relatively small additional cost – especially as compared to administering an independent household energy survey. Data collected will be an invaluable source of information for energy related research and policy. Both researchers and policy makers can contribute towards this.

8. Take networking potential into account when appointing personnel: Many cases in the

AFREPREN study strongly highlight the importance of personal networks between policy makers and researchers in strengthening the research-policy links. In many instances, the appointment of individuals that were active in energy research projects to important policy making posts have improved the chance of using research results in policy. Hence, to strengthen the research-policy link, when key policy related personnel are appointed, it is worth ensuring that they have strong links with relevant research community. Correspondingly, researchers should systematically cultivate their links with key personnel in government.

9. Adapt to the high turnover of manpower: The ministries of energy in the study countries

experienced high turnover of personnel; the effect of this was compounded by the long policy process. Discontinuities associated with this high turnover are inimical to the research-policy link. The provision of better incentives and work environment can decrease this turnover. In some cases, this high turnover can also be used to strengthen the research-policy link. For example, in many instances people that left the ministries started working in academic/research institutions. Employees of the ministries can use their networks with their former colleagues to strengthen this link – this is what actually happened in some of the cases covered by the AFREPREN study.

An additional recommendation that goes beyond the energy sector is that the general question of research capacity in highly specialized policy areas is quite important for small developing countries, for example, Uganda. Small countries, and certainly small developing countries, have to rely on international expertise in highly specialized areas of policymaking (energy policy being a good example). While there should be no barrier for small countries to import knowledge from

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abroad, the question is what is the best way to deliver technical assistance so that recipient countries develop the capacity to implement and evaluate reforms and routine policies, be able to track international advances in relevant knowledge, etc. Proposed Activities for the Next Phase 1. Training Workshops for African Energy Policy Makers and Researchers:

We would like to propose a series of training workshops for African energy policy makers and researchers. The main objective of the workshops would be to disseminate the findings of the AFREPREN/GDN study as well as to create a forum where policy makers and researchers could exchange ideas on how to further strengthen the research-policy link. AFREPREN is well placed to carry out the proposed training as it brings together 106 African energy researchers and policy makers from about 24 African countries with a long-term interest in energy research and the attendant policy-making process.

2. Carry Out Follow up Action Research:

The objective of this activity would be to examine the effectiveness of several tools suggested in the just concluded study in influencing policy. Ideally, this would entail implementing different tools in different political and macroeconomic contexts and track them over a period of not less than 1 year. The lessons learnt from various case studies would be compiled in the form of a synthesis report.

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1.0 Introduction Most African countries are currently in the middle of significant shifts in their policy regimes. The growing consensus that the domestic policy regimes of African countries have played an important role in their underperformance is the basis for these changes. Some of the recommended policy changes are the creation of more open economies that can respond to the rapid rate of globalisation, move away from centrally planned economies and stronger emphasis on market forces usually in the form of structural adjustment programmes and the spread of more participatory political systems. Most African countries, including those covered by this study, are affected by these changes. The reform programmes supported and advocated by the multilateral institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank were traditionally focusing on macroeconomic stabilisation. But through the 1990s, establishing macroeconomic stability was coupled to the twin objectives of economic growth and poverty reduction with the objective of ensuring that economies of African countries grow and poverty is reduced. This would necessitate economic growth with no deterioration in income inequality. The gain in poverty reduction due to economic growth should not be completely eroded by increases in inequality. Most African countries are currently incorporating poverty reduction strategies into their reform programmes in the form of Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP). The PRSP documents are prepared by a team from the developing country with the active support and involvement of the World Bank. PRSP documents are now increasingly becoming a pre-requisite for accessing aid from multilateral institutions. Related to the poverty reduction strategy process driven mainly by the World Bank, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of the United Nations (UN) stipulate specific targets for 2015. The eight main goals are: eradication of extreme poverty and hunger; achieving universal primary education; promoting gender equality and empowerment of women; reducing child mortality; improving maternal health; combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases; ensuring environmental sustainability and developing global partnerships for development. With the realisation of the importance of the energy sector particularly after the oil crisis of the 1970s and partly in response to the aforementioned wider policy initiatives, many African countries have prepared – or are in the middle of preparing – national energy policy documents. These documents outline a comprehensive policy towards the energy sector as a whole instead of the fragmented policies directed towards individual energy sub-sectors. Energy policy is a relatively novel undertaking in many African countries. It was brought to the fore – in both developed and developing countries – with the increase in petroleum prices. Hence, the move towards more comprehensive policies in an area which is relatively new is commendable. But the novelty of a comprehensive policy in the energy sector is also a challenge. While research on energy policy in the region is not as extensive as research on agricultural policy (energy policy research is certainly a more recent development), there are a growing number of energy policy research initiatives in eastern and southern Africa. In some respects, the relatively younger pedigree of energy policy research (as opposed to, for example, agricultural policy research) means that there are greater opportunities for influencing its direction and strategic emphasis towards more effective approaches. Like all other sectors, policy making in the energy sector can be influenced by research. This can happen either by using specific research results/ideas directly in policy formulation or through the influence of research on general understandings of how the energy sector operates and how certain problems can be solved. Knowing what kind of research influences policy is important to improve the overall effectiveness of research. The main objective of this regional report is to identify both contextual and specific characteristics of research undertakings that have made them effective in influencing policy making in the energy sector.

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‘Bridging Research and Policy’ is a global research project coordinated by the Global Development Network (GDN) and covers the links between research and policy in all sectors. As part of this global research initiative, the African Energy Policy Research Network (AFREPREN) focuses on the energy sector. The project, titled ‘Research and Policy Linkages in the Energy Sector of Eastern and Southern Africa’, concentrates on the link between energy policy formulation and research in five eastern and southern African countries – Botswana, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Specifically, the study attempts to identify the research undertakings that have particularly influenced the national energy policy documents of these countries. Researchers based in each participating country prepared country reports. This regional report brings together key findings from the country studies and uses a comparative approach to highlight similarities and differences in the policy formulation processes in an attempt to identify common patterns demonstrating how research can influence energy policy. Being a synthesis of commissioned country studies, this study represents clear evidence of a successful knowledge transfer. It also provides the findings of the focus group discussions held to establish whether any competing views were considered or brushed aside and if there were discussions of policy alternatives. The energy policy documents of the project countries cover all sub-sectors in the energy sector and examining the research-policy link in all these sub-sectors will be too ambitious and would have complicated any effort to identify key commonalities. Hence, the country and regional reports focus on the renewable sub-sector. In addition to the five country reports that focus on the renewable sub-sector, additional preliminary reports for Kenya and Uganda from an ongoing UNDP-sponsored study also examine the power sub-sector (see http://www.afrepren.org/project/gdn/Appendix4_Associated Studies.pdf). Although not extensively analysed in the regional report, the additional studies on the power sub-sectors of Kenya and Uganda provide us with an opportunity to see if there are important sub-sector differences in the research-policy link. Future phases of this study will also take on board, findings of a parallel DFID-funded study on the impact of gender research on power sector policy (see http://www.afrepren.org/project/gdn/Appendix4_Associated Studies.pdf). This regional report is structured in the following fashion. Section 2 briefly outlines some important overall socio-economic features of the countries and provides a brief introduction to the energy sector in the Sub-Saharan African region. A more profound appreciation of the issues and problems involved in the design of energy policy can be achieved with a better understanding of the political, social and economic conditions of the case study countries. In Section 3, we examine issues pertaining to the research-policy link from the viewpoint of the energy policy formulation process. In all the countries considered in this study, governments play a paramount role in initiating the energy policy agenda and controlling its dynamics. The section reviews the different steps in the energy policy formulation process and examines how research undertakings contribute at different stages of the energy policy formulation process within the GDN’s framework of explanatory variables (Court, et al, 2005)1. In contrast to Section 1 Evidence: Looks at researchers' private incentives to generate and disseminate policy-relevant knowledge, and factors that influence their capacity to ensure their work has a greater and faster impact on policy. In particular, what is the role of research units – either independent or inside government – and what institutional characteristics and activities help foster research impact on policy, and what practical advice can we provide to researchers on what might work most effectively in different contexts. Links: Examines how different types of research organisations, networks and other types of intermediaries such as media and advocacy groups influence policymaking. Do different approaches to networking and outreach to policymakers work better in different environments? Does legitimacy and trust make a difference, and how can it be strengthened? Context of policy formulation: Identifies practical ways of influencing the demand for, and uptake of, research by policy-makers. Issues to be examined include, factors influencing policy formulation: e.g. macro political and economic structures, the attitudes and assumptions of policy makers, institutional pressures, existing policy narratives and vested interests, factors influencing policy implementation: attitudes, and incentives among bureaucrats, their room for manoeuvre, local history, and power relations. Any decisive moments in the policy process: were there opportunities for fundamental or only incremental changes, or policy windows triggered by internal or external crisis. External Influences: Impact that international issues in general and donors in particular have on bridging research and policy. How can different actors respond to the changing context? Key issues include: The effect of international politics,

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3, Section 4 examines the policy formulation process from the research side. Research undertakings that successfully influenced the national energy policy documents of the countries are identified and their characteristics that may have helped them to be successful are analysed within the GDN framework of key explanatory variables that explain the impact of research on energy policy. The last part of the report, Section 5, presents key conclusions and recommendations within the GDN’s framework of explanatory variables. The recommendations mainly focus on what can be done by policy makers and researchers to improve the research-policy link.

agreements and policy: are there regional and global issues affecting local policies? The effect of donor development policies, the effect of donor research funding and priorities.

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2.0 Background and Brief Review of the Region’s Energy Sector 2.1 Political and Socio-Economic Conditions of the Study Countries 2.1.1 General overview of Sub - Saharan Africa The countries selected for the study are all located in Sub – Saharan Africa and include Botswana, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. The countries face similar challenges under varying political and economic contexts. Consequently, a brief review of the general economic status of sub – Saharan African countries would be useful. Figure 2.1 Map of Africa Highlighting the Country Case Studies

In 2002, the population of sub-Saharan Africa was estimated to be 644 million - over 80% of the continent’s total (World Bank, 2004). The World Bank estimated that, in 2002, about half of Africa’s population had average incomes of below one dollar a day (World Bank, 2004). The trend is particularly worrisome as the following quote highlights (World Bank, 2001b):

“Data on income poverty since the late 1980s show Africa’s share of those living on less than a dollar a day to have risen: the absolute number of poor in Africa has grown five times more than the figure for Latin America, and twice that for South Asia”

Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly acute in rural areas which account for 70% of the population (World Bank, 2001b). Poverty levels in rural Africa range from over 50% to 77% if one uses national poverty references. National income levels in Sub-Saharan Africa are significantly lower than in North Africa and South Africa. The region’s per capita drops from US$ 650 to US$ 451 (in 2002) when North African countries are excluded from the GNP per capita estimates. Further excluding South Africa the per capita drops to US$ 307 (World Bank, 2004). Latest statistics on income indicate that at US$ 311billion in 2002, Sub-Saharan Africa currently has the lowest Gross National Income (GNI) in the world. This is equivalent to a meagre 1% of total global GNI, and about half the Gross National Income of South Asia, which is the next poorest region. If South Africa is excluded from the GNI of sub-Saharan Africa, the Gross National Income falls by about one third, to US$197.6 billion (World Bank, 2004). This is less than the GNI for Korea, with a population of 48 million, which is less than 10% of sub-Saharan Africa’s population (World Bank, 2004). The next section will briefly discuss the general economic status of each of the five case study countries covered by this study

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2.1.2 Political and economic contexts in the study countries Of the five country studies, Botswana stands out as a well governed country that has enjoyed a long-standing political stability. Since independence, the ruling party has maintained strong national support. With a relatively low population of 1.7 million (Table 2.1) and coupled with substantial foreign exchange earnings from diamond exports, Botswana enjoys one of the highest per capita GNP in Africa at US$ 4,340 (Table 2.1), more than 11 times higher than that of the other study countries. Its reliance on donors is low. Zimbabwe has experienced a deteriorating economy as reflected by a negative GDP rate of -5.6% (Table 2.1). The deterioration which began in 1999 - 2000 is partly linked to its land reform programme and subsequent economic sanctions imposed by western powers. A substantial number of the skilled workforce has migrated to neighbouring countries and to the North in search of better working conditions. Prior to the current crisis, Zimbabwe had well developed infrastructure, a vibrant agricultural sector and a diversified manufacturing sector. Kenya represents a country which has undergone political transition with the current government showing greater transparency and better governance. In comparison to other countries in the eastern and southern Africa region, its economy is considered to be fairly well developed with a GDP of US$ 15,600 million (Table 2.1). However the economy has been stagnant. Kenya is host to key UN agencies including UNEP and HABITAT – a fact that contributes to attracting foreign direct investment and tourists to the country (with attendant influence of major international and regional policy processes). Tanzania’s governance record is mixed but it receives relatively high levels of donor funding among the countries under consideration and has a GDP growth rate of 3.7% The per capita GNP is however low (US$ 330). It provides an interesting contrast to Botswana, which is less reliant on donor funding. Uganda has enjoyed relative stability since 1986 when the current regime seized power. The country has a strong and active parliament. The political environment could change as the incumbent executive wants to remove Presidential term limits - a move that could lead to political instability. Uganda, however, enjoys good relations with donors due to its excellent record in implementing IMF/World bank policies. However, there has been criticism from the local research community that IMF / World bank policies have not benefited the poor. At US$ 270, Uganda has the lowest per capita GNP amongst the 5 study countries (Table 2.1). Table 2.1: Selected socio-economic indicators - 2004 Population

(Millions) Rural Population as % of Total Population

Land Area (000 km Sq)

GDP Growth Rate %

GNP Per Capita (US Dollars)

GDP (US Dollars Millions)

Botswana 1.7 50.1 582 5.2 4,340 8,659 Kenya 32.4 64.8 580 1.8 460 15,600 Tanzania 36.6 63.8 945 3.7 330 10,851 Uganda 25.9 85.1 241 6.8 270 6,833 Zimbabwe 13.2 63.3 391 1.1 470 17,750 Source: World Bank, 2005 ; African Development Indicators, 2004 The next section will briefly review Sub–Saharan Africa’s energy sector, the sector on which this study focuses. 2.2 Overview of the region’s energy sector 2.2.1 General overview Africa’s energy sector is best understood as three distinct regions. North Africa, which is heavily reliant on oil and gas, followed by South Africa which depends on coal and the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, largely reliant on biomass. In 2001, South Africa and North Africa accounted for over 77.1% of the continent’s total modern energy production (World Bank, 2004). In terms of

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electricity generation installed capacity, South Africa is estimated to account for about half the continent’s total. Reliance on traditional biomass energy is particularly high in Sub-Saharan Africa, accounting in some countries for 70-90% of primary energy supply and up to 95% of the total consumption. Even oil rich Sub-Saharan African countries continue to rely on biomass energy to meet the bulk of their household energy requirements: in Nigeria - a major oil exporter, it is estimated that about 99% of the household energy needs are met by biomass (IEA, 2004). The majority of the poor in the region rely on biomass to meet the bulk of their energy requirements. There is enormous exploitable hydro power capacity in Africa countries, but less than 7% has been harnessed - one of the world’s lowest figures. Africa has an estimated proven geothermal potential (hot water/steam only) of 9,000 MW but only 121 MW (in Kenya) has been exploited (AFREPREN/HBF, 2004; Mbuthi, 2003). The average solar insolation in Africa is between 5-6 kWh/m2, but solar energy use is still dominated by traditional applications of direct solar energy to dry crops. Some encouraging results with PV systems have been registered in Ghana, Kenya, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe but these initiatives largely serve the high-income rural households. In spite of abundant potential, the use of solar water heaters in households and institutions is still limited. Some encouraging endeavours are, however, underway in North Africa (notably Morocco and Tunisia), Mauritius and Seychelles (AFREPREN, 2004; BCSE, 2003; Mbuthi, 2003; Karekezi and Ranja, 1997). A number of innovative low-cost renewable energy technologies suitable for the rural and urban poor have been developed and are beginning to demonstrate encouraging levels of success. Notable examples include improved biofuel stoves; pico- and micro-hydro technologies suitable for agro-processing; and, efficient manually operated water pumping and agro-processing technologies. The wide spread dissemination of these low-cost renewable energy technologies could yield significant benefits for the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa. Total oil production in Africa for the year 2002 reached 8 million barrels a day (mb/d), mainly from North Africa and the continent‘s Western coastline. Total oil consumption in 2002 was only about 2.0 mb/d but it is expected to grow rapidly ((IEA, 2004; IEA, 2003). A study by the International Energy Agency estimates a doubling of oil products consumption in Africa by 2010 (International Energy Agency, 1998). Most of Africa’s gas is found in North and West Africa. Sixty three percent of African production comes from Algeria followed by Egypt at around 18% (IEA, 2004). Gas exports are largely from North Africa countries with the requisite infrastructure. Most of the associated gas from the continent’s Western coastline is flared due to limited infrastructure. Several major gas development projects that are either ongoing or planned are expected to result in a major increase in gas use in power generation in a number of West African countries. South Africa accounts for around 97% of Africa’s coal production (IEA,2004), and it is estimated that 90% of the continent’s proven and economically attractive coal reserves and a substantial portion of its uranium deposits are located in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia. Increased use of coal is beginning to generate the common environment problems associated with coal use throughout the world. Examples include indoor air pollution, local air pollution, greenhouse gases emission and land degradation in the case of open cast coal mines (Asamoah, 2001). With the exception of kerosene which is used by many rural and urban poor households for lighting (and to a limited extent, for cooking), the fossil energy sector mainly serves the high income households and the energy-intensive commercial and industrial sub-sectors (Kebede, 2001). Electricity generation is dominated by South Africa which, in 2001, accounted for about 45% of the total electricity generated in Africa (367 TWh). About 35% was accounted for by North African countries with the rest of the 50 or so Sub-Saharan African countries accounting for only 20% (IEA, 2003; Karekezi et al, 2004).

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In terms of access to electricity, the majority poor in sub-Saharan Africa’s rural and peri-urban areas do not enjoy the benefits of electricity services as only about 10% of the region’s rural population has access to electricity - the lowest in the world (Table 2.2). When one examines the data by individual countries, it reveals that in most countries, access to electricity in rural areas is less than 5%, with the exception of a few countries such as Mauritius, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Botswana and Cameroon.

Table 2.2: Proportion of Population with Access to Electricity (2000)

Region % of Total Population % of Rural Population East Asia & Pacific 87.3 81.0 Middle East & North Africa 90.4 76.6 Latin America & Caribbean 86.6 52.4 Developing Countries 65.1 51.1 South Asia 40.8 30.1 Sub-Saharan Africa* 21.7 9.9 * Excluding South Africa

Sources: World Bank, 2003; World Bank, 2004; IEA, 2002; GNESD, 2003; EDF Group, 2002. 2.2.2 Energy in the study countries The energy situation in the study countries reveals certain similarities. A significant proportion of convertible currency earnings in the selected countries is allocated to oil imports. With the exception of Botswana, biomass accounts for over 70% of the total energy consumption (Table 2.3). The study countries also exhibit unique features in their respective energy sectors. Botswana has a rapidly growing energy sector with the highest electricity consumption per capita amongst the study countries at 1084.2 KWh (table 2.2). A significant proportion of its electricity supply is imported from South Africa but this is likely to change in the near future when the surplus capacity in South Africa runs out. Before the deterioration of the economy, Zimbabwe’s principal utility, ZESA was a successful example with a good track record on both rural and urban electrification. It has the highest electricity installed capacity of 1961MW (Table 2.2) and a comparatively high national electrification level of close to 40%. Kenya’s reliance on various energy sources is more balanced compared to the other countries. The country has attempted to reduce reliance on hydro-generated electricity which has been severely affected by drought by installing fossil-fuel plants. This has, however, led to increases in electricity tariffs partly as a result of higher oil prices, a sensitive issue that animates politically influential, industrial and commercial service companies. The country has protected itself from high fossil-fuel prices by diversifying through the use of geothermal resources to produce electricity. Kenya has the highest installed geothermal generation capacity in Africa. Tanzania relies heavily on biomass with consumption levels totalling 90.7% of total energy consumption (Table 2.3). The country has huge natural gas reserves and donors have allocated substantial amounts of funds for the exploitation of these reserves. A significant portion of its power demand is expected to be met by gas-fired power plants. Uganda’s energy sector is the least developed among the 5 study countries. It relies heavily on hydro-generated electricity and this has been severely affected by drought and falling water levels. The sector has undergone rapid restructuring under the IMF/World Bank programmes with the national electric utility being privatized. There has been controversy on decisions to increase its hydro-electricity generation capacity through the Bujagali hydro power dam project. Biomass consumption accounts for 95% of total energy consumption (Table 2.3), the highest among the 5 study countries.

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Table 2.3: Selected energy indicators – 2002 National

Electrification Level (%)

Electricity Installed Capacity (MW)

Electricity Generation (GWh)

Electricity Consumption per Capita (KWh)

Biomass Consumption as % of Total Energy

Botswana 34.0 132.0 2,170.0**** 1,084.2 38.2* Kenya 10.4 1,194.6 4,564.0 118.7 78.4 Tanzania 10.0** 863.0** 2,918.0** 63.0 90.7 Uganda 6.0*** 303.0 1,701.7 57.9* 95.0 Zimbabwe 40.0** 1961 8,587.0 827.0 70.2 Note: * 2000 data; ** 2001 data; ***2003 data; ****The relatively high amount of electricity generation in Botswana compared to its modest installed capacity is attributed to electricity imports mainly from South Africa and some from Zimbabwe. Sources: AFREPREN, 2004; IEA, 2004; Marandu, E and D, Kayo, 2004 The energy context in the study countries demonstrates that each country faces common as well as unique energy security challenges that need to be addressed. The increased interest in renewable energy resources is in part driven by the need to diversify energy supplies. However in the past, governments in the region have shown limited interest in renewable energy. 2.3 Status of renewable energy sub-sector Recent interest in renewable energy in Africa is driven by, among others, the following important developments. The first is the recent increase in oil prices, which, recently, peaked to about US$ 70 per barrel (Economist: 3 - 9 September, 2005) at a time when Africa’s convertible currency earnings are very low due to poor world market prices and decreased volumes of its commodity exports. Consequently, it is estimated that in the year 2000, petroleum imports as a percentage of merchandise export earnings doubled from about 15-20% to 30-40% for a number of oil importing African countries (AFREPREN, 2001). This proportion is likely to be higher due to escalating oil prices. The second important development that has increased interest in renewable energy in the region is the recurrent crises faced by most power utilities in the region arising from drought-induced hydro power shortage. For example, in 2000 alone, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria and Tanzania faced unprecedented power rationing which adversely affected their economies. The rapid development of renewable energy sources is often mentioned as an important response to addressing the power problems faced by the region. Three important global environment initiatives have also stimulated greater interest in renewables in Africa. The first was the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992. At this Conference, an ambitious environment and development document entitled "Agenda 21" was reviewed by one of the largest gathering of Government Heads of States and was endorsed by a large number of multi-nationals companies. Agenda 21 sought to operationalise the concept of sustainable development and highlighted the potentially important role of renewables. In addition, the Rio Conference provided the venue for the second important event, the signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by 155 Governments (United Nations, 1992). The Convention came into force in early 1994 after ratification by 50 States. The recently ratified Kyoto Protocol added further impetus to global interest in renewables. The third important event is the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) held in Johannesburg, South Africa. Renewables featured in Agenda 21, the Climate Change Convention (United Nations, 1992) and the WSSD. Because of the important role of fossil fuels in the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (it is estimated that the energy sector accounts for about half the global emissions of greenhouse gases) and concomitant climate change concerns, renewables are perceived to constitute an important option for mitigating and abating the emissions of greenhouse gases (Socolow, 1992).

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The above perspective was, however, not initially shared by the many energy analysts in Africa. In contrast to the industrialized world which is worried by the long-term global environmental impact of current patterns of energy production and use, African countries are largely pre-occupied with the immediate problems of reversing the persistent poor performance of their centralized power systems as well a meeting the long-standing and pressing demands for a minimum level of modern energy services for the majority of their poor - many of whom have no electricity and continue to rely on inefficient and environmentally hazardous unprocessed biomass fuels. Although the contribution of African countries to global greenhouse emissions (GHGs) is, on a per capita basis, much smaller than that of industrialized countries (some projections, however, indicate a much higher contribution in the future), there is growing realization that Africa is likely to be dis-proportionately affected by the impacts of climate change. Of particular concern is the dependence of the poor in Africa on rain-fed agriculture, which is believed to be already under threat from unpredictable weather patterns triggered by what appears to be climate change. The recent floods that adversely affected southern parts of Africa and greater frequency of drought in Sub-Saharan African region appear to indicate that the impact of climate change may already be a reality. In spite of the growing evidence of climate change, the position of the African energy community on the climate change question has not been unanimous. Support for renewables is, at best, lukewarm on the part of energy experts from oil-exporting African countries such Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Nigeria and Libya. Other energy analysts argue that since Africa’s contribution to GHG emissions is currently negligible, the region should not be expected to spend its limited resources in promoting sustainable energy options. In spite of the continued divergence on the part of African energy analysts on how to respond to the climate change challenge, the consensus around the further development of renewables appears to be growing. The long-term nature of renewables would allow a more gradual and less disruptive transition away from dependency on fossil fuels. Mobilizing support for renewables has, consequently, been somewhat less arduous. This viewpoint is bolstered by some evidence indicating that at the global level, the medium-term outlook for fossil fuels demand may not be as attractive as previously anticipated due to concerns over associated negative environmental impacts. In the long-term, fossil fuels may also become uncompetitive in cost as reliance on more costly oil reserves grows and alternative energy systems such as wind and geothermal become more affordable. The recent peak high oil prices are strengthening the case for renewables. Consequently, a growing number of African energy analysts believe that renewables constitute a reliable and ecologically sound long-term energy supply supplement for virtually all African countries including current oil-exporting nations, many of which have abundant and unexploited biomass, hydro, solar and wind resources. The strategies elaborated in energy policy documents of most countries in the region focus on large-scale conventional energy sector, with limited attention being given to alternative options such as renewables and energy efficiency. The focus on the large-scale energy sector is reflected further in investment patterns. The large-scale conventional energy sector, which includes electricity and petroleum, serves a smaller proportion of the population, but receives the bulk of energy investments in most countries in the region. Small-scale and often renewable energy options, which serve the bulk of the population, receive limited budgetary support. A review of the policy, regulatory and institutional framework for renewable energy in the region reveals the following key gaps:

- Weak support for renewables at policy level; - Weak institutional structures for handling renewables issues; - Low budgetary support for renewables initiatives; - Limited understanding of the link between poverty and renewables; - Limited capacity for technology adaptation and transfer of renewables options; - Limited incentives for renewables.

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Based on available estimates of renewable options, very low levels of development have been achieved in eastern and southern Africa. There is, however, a huge potential for development of renewables in the region. It is this high potential and higher oil prices plus drought-induced hydropower crises that is stimulating greater interest in renewables on the part of African policy makers. Better understanding of how research can influence renewable energy policy, the subject of this draft report, is therefore important.

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3.0. The Policy Making Process and the Research-Policy Link in Eastern and Southern Africa In this section issues related to the energy policy making process are discussed in detail. First, the actual policy making process in the five study countries is presented and common features and differences identified. The policy making process incorporates the findings of a parallel UNDP-sponsored study on the power sector which is a similar study to the GDN one that AFREPREN undertook (see Karekezi, et al, 2005). However, it is worth noting that the UNDP study only focussed on the power sector policy making process in East Africa. The reason for incorporating the UNDP power sector-focussed study is that the policy and research interest in the renewable energy sector is a relatively recent phenomenon and donors and national governments have shifted (or are shifting) their attention from structural adjustment per se to the problems of poverty, income distribution and rural livelihoods. Prior to that, governments seemed to have been concerned with the technical aspects of power generation and supply side analysis. It is for this reason that both local research and policymaking capacities (and research-policy linkages) in the power sub-sector are better developed compared to the renewable energy sub-sector. Therefore, there could be useful lessons for the renewables sub-sector to draw from the power sub-sector. Using GDN’s framework of explanatory variables2, the major issues that affect the formulation of policy on the one hand and the research-policy link on the other are discussed in the subsequent sub-sections (Court, et al, 2005). The focus is on those aspects that have a bearing on the research-policy link and help us understand what type of research had stronger influence on policy. 3.1. The energy policy formulation process As part of its methodological approach, the study undertook ‘timeline analysis’ which examined the processes involved in the formulation of the national energy policy documents. This section presents some of the general patterns that emerge from the experiences of the five countries – Botswana, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe – in drafting energy policy documents. In line with GDN’s framework of explanatory variables (Court, et al, 2005), we will first examine the “context” dimension of the impact of research on energy policy. Generally, the procedures in the formulation of the energy policy document – for that matter, also other policy changes – in the project countries have strong similarities. The strong similarities in the policy processes of the project countries are partly explained by their common colonial past. Many state structures and procedures in post-colonial African countries are continuations of colonial periods. Some 2 Evidence: Looks at researchers' private incentives to generate and disseminate policy-relevant knowledge, and factors that influence their capacity to ensure their work has a greater and faster impact on policy. In particular, what is the role of research units – either independent or inside government – and what institutional characteristics and activities help foster research impact on policy, and what practical advice can we provide to researchers on what might work most effectively in different contexts. Links: Examines how different types of research organisations, networks and other types of intermediaries such as media and advocacy groups influence policymaking. Do different approaches to networking and outreach to policymakers work better in different environments? Does legitimacy and trust make a difference, and how can it be strengthened? Context of policy formulation: Identifies practical ways of influencing the demand for, and uptake of, research by policy-makers. Issues to be examined include, factors influencing policy formulation: e.g. macro political and economic structures, the attitudes and assumptions of policy makers, institutional pressures, existing policy narratives and vested interests, factors influencing policy implementation: attitudes, and incentives among bureaucrats, their room for manoeuvre, local history, and power relations. Any decisive moments in the policy process: were there opportunities for fundamental or only incremental changes, or policy windows triggered by internal or external crisis. External Influences: Impact that international issues in general and donors in particular have on bridging research and policy. How can different actors respond to the changing context? Key issues include: The effect of international politics, agreements and policy: are there regional and global issues affecting local policies? The effect of donor development policies, the effect of donor research funding and priorities.

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studies on institutions have shown that the influence of colonial heritage on characteristics of recent institutions should not be underestimated (see for example, Acemoglu, et al., 2004). In all countries, the preparation of the energy policy document is initiated by the ministry of energy. At this stage, experts – from within and outside the ministry – are involved. A series of workshops, conferences and retreats involving both internal and external experts are organised; papers are commissioned and consultations with stakeholders are also held. These consultations include inter-ministerial coordination since many energy related issues fall within the realm of other ministries – for example, ministry of transport, forestry department, etc. As the experience of the project countries reflect, this first stage is the crucial stage in the research-policy link in drafting the national energy documents. Most of the research-related work for the policy document is done during this period. The agenda for formulating the national energy policy document is set at this stage. Unless there is a major policy reversal during the subsequent process, the basic character of the policy document is mostly shaped during this stage. What is done at this stage probably has a lock-in effect, increasing the importance of the ministry of energy in the whole policy-making process. The policy proposal drafted by the ministry of energy is then submitted to the cabinet. There can be many iterations while the draft policy is with the cabinet; it may be returned back to the ministry of energy for further changes if found unsatisfactory. After the cabinet, depending on whether or not the policy document will become a legislative Act, the policy process can follow one of the two routes. If no legislative act is required, approval by the cabinet will be the final stage of the policy formulation. Otherwise, a parliamentary bill for the policy document has to be prepared. Normally, the route of formulating the national energy policy document as a parliamentary Act is a longer process than the first procedure. From the five countries, only Botswana and Kenya are following the route of enacting the national energy policy document as a parliamentary Act (see Themba, 2005; Mbuthi, 2005). Apparently following the route of a parliamentary Act may give a better chance for research to influence the policy process. For instance, discussions of the bill in the parliament may help to publicise the policy document and subsequently attract more attention from the public, researchers and the media. Members of parliament may also use research results to argue their cases. But in practice, these opportunities for research influence have not been widely exploited by the region’s energy policy research community. As indicated above, the initial stages of the process by the ministries of energy represent the main opportunity for researchers and other stakeholders to influence the energy policy. Researchers that participate at this stage – that are approached/invited by the ministry – may have a chance to influence policy outcomes. But for researchers that are not involved in this initial stage, the opportunity for meaningfully influencing the policy is limited first because interventions in subsequent stages of the policy process are difficult; for example, influencing discussions within the cabinet is difficult (influencing Parliament is in some cases less difficult). Second, other alternative institutional set-ups that can help to do that are generally lacking or weak. Epistemic communities (Haas, 1990, 1992; Boudourides, undated) comprising of strong professional associations or other institutions that can provide and argue for alternative policy options are in general lacking or weak in the study countries as well as in most African countries. This sentiment was echoed in the opening speech of the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Energy, Kenya who stated that:

“…energy research findings, in terms of data and information are key input into energy policy formulation process. Regrettably, the linkage between energy research and policy is rather weak in our country”

In addition, the dominance of a political party – lack of effective opposition – in parliament and the limited capacity of parliamentary institutions and parliamentarians to assess policy in its technical details is also another problem. Hence, even though the national energy policy

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document may be implemented either as a parliamentary act or otherwise, the difference does not seem to substantively affect the research-policy link. The above mentioned problems are mainly related to the overall structural and institutional problems of the study countries as well as most developing countries. Furthermore, in most sub-Saharan African countries, there is a general absence of strong epistemic communities in the energy sector. Given those limitations, governments can still undertake wide ranging consultation of stakeholders in policy formulation – the ’links’ dimension of GDN’s framework. From the respondents to the survey questionnaire – ignoring those that did not respond or responded by saying ‘Don’t know’ – more than 85% said that there was either a ‘lot’ or ‘some’ consultation of stakeholders. However, more than 70% of the relevant respondents of the survey indicate that the renewable energy policy document is not disseminated well among stakeholders. In spite of the reservations on dissemination, most – more than 60% – of the respondents of the survey believe that the national energy policy documents cover all relevant issues in the renewable sub-sector. The above results in addition to the fact that the agenda for policy formulation is controlled by the ministry of energy indicate a possible bottleneck in the participation of independent researchers in the policy making process. In addition, they also confirm the lack of a strong epistemic community in the energy sector (Haas, 1990, 1992; Boudourides, undated). Inviting independent researchers at earlier stages, more consultation of stakeholders and dissemination of the products of the process among as many stakeholders as possible would improve wider participation and consultation. The formulation of the national energy policy document is a relatively long process in all the project countries. The 1992 energy policy document of Tanzania was a result of a process that started in 1987 (Kaare, 2005). In Botswana, the Draft White Paper that came out in 2003 is the result of a series of reviews of the Botswana Energy Master Plan (BEMP)3 the last of which begun in 1996 – a process that took seven years (Themba, 2005). In Uganda, the process that led to the 2002 energy policy document was started in 1995 (Kamese, 2005). Similarly in Zimbabwe, the first draft national energy policy document came out in 1995 and the latest substantive version of the document is that of 1999 – it is already five years old (Mapako and Mzezewa, 2005). In Kenya, the policy document was approved by parliament by the end 2004; but the initial process of formulating the policy started way back in 1986-87 – almost twenty years ago (Mbuthi, 2005). That drafting the national energy policy document took relatively long periods, as mentioned above, is confirmed by the perception of energy policy makers and researchers as captured by the survey questionnaire. About two thirds of the respondents that knew about the length of the process believed that it took too long. A breakdown of the figures by country shows that in Tanzania and Zimbabwe most of the respondents agree that the policy formulation process was too long; Zimbabwe is a case where an overwhelming majority of the respondents believed that the period was too long. For the other countries, due to the percentage of respondents that responded ‘Don’t know’, it is difficult to interpret the results (see Table 3.1). Table 3.1: Did development of the national energy policy take too long? Botswana Kenya Tanzania Uganda Zimbabwe TotalYes 5 4 6 3 12 30 No 2 6 2 4 1 15 Don’t know 1 6 3 17 3 30 The extended process in the formulation of the energy policy document has a negative impact on the research-policy link a key element of GDN’s framework of explanatory variables. First, it is difficult for researchers and also for involved policy makers to meaningfully engage in a long- 3 It is important to note that while the Botswana Energy Master Plan was a stand-alone document/activity, it formed an integral part of the 5-year National Development Plan (NDP). Consequently, the resultant National Energy Policy was automatically integrated into the NDP.

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drawn process that tapers off at times and pursued vigorously at others. Second, the priorities change over time, making energy policy formulation and research correspondingly more difficult. For example, in all the project countries as well as other African countries, structural adjustment programmes have recently become the main policy preoccupations of governments. Structural adjustment programmes have changed the focus from project based activities towards general policy formulation and support. And this has affected many project-related activities within the energy sector. The corresponding refocusing of research towards the new priorities will entail adjustment costs that could be minimised if the length needed for the energy policy is shorter. The periods during which the national energy policy documents were drafted in the study countries coincided with many institutional changes. In fact in many cases, the preparation of the policy document was spurred by these institutional changes. The next sub-section focuses on the influence of the institutional restructuring on the policy formulation process and hence on the research-policy link. 3.2. Institutional restructuring and turnover of staff Before the drafting of the national energy policy documents, activities in the energy sectors were monitored and coordinated with different types of short-term instruments; one gets a general impression that the countries lacked coordinated mechanisms directing energy policies. For example, in Uganda, in the absence of a comprehensive energy policy document, the short-term budgets of the energy-related ministries were the indicators of the overall intentions of the Government towards the energy sector (Kamese, 2005). In Kenya, the five-year national development plans were instrumental in coordinating activities in the energy sector (Mbuthi, 2005). Only in the case of Botswana (Themba, 2005) do we find a relatively comprehensive energy policy even before the drafting of the latest energy policy document which in its present form is referred to as the Draft White Paper. The Botswana Energy Master Plan (BEMP) existed before the current energy policy document was drafted and formed part of the 5-year National Development Plan. In fact, the Draft White Paper – the energy policy document in its current form – was a direct outcome of the review of the BEMP. Compared to the other study countries, one gets a strong impression that Botswana’s National Energy Policy is a product of a comprehensive, continuous and integrated policy making process. This is reinforced when the components of the energy policy document are examined in detail. For example, the part of the Draft White Paper that deals with renewable energy comes from a PV Master Plan Study. In each country, the prolonged lack of a comprehensive long-term energy policy itself was a reason for developing national energy policy documents. The realisation that there is no document indicating the overall long-term direction of an important sector like energy was one of the elements that helped the initiation of the policy. But as we will see below, this realisation was coupled with specific conditions that pushed energy to the forefront of the governments’ agenda. The formulation of the national energy policy document in all the five countries was, in part, pushed forward by the restructuring in government ministries. The countries did not have an independent ministry of energy; generally, there was a department of energy as part of another related ministry. In Kenya, before the Ministry of Energy was created in 1979 – which probably makes it one of the oldest in Africa – there was a small energy department in the Ministry of Power and Communications (Mbuthi, 2005). In Uganda, the Ministry of Natural Resources was split into two ministries in 1999: the Ministry of Water, Lands and Environment and the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (Kamese, 2005). In Zimbabwe, it was only in 2002 that the Department of Energy attained full ministerial status and became the Ministry of Energy and Power Development (Mapako and Mzezewa, 2005). In Tanzania, the first comprehensive energy policy document was finalised in 1992 and the setting-up of a full-fledged Department of Energy under the then Ministry of Energy and Water in 1987 has spurred this process (Kaare, 2005). In addition the creation of a policy and planning unit within the ministry has facilitated energy policy and strengthened the research-policy link. In Botswana (Themba, 2005), the Energy Affairs Division (EAD) under the Ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Resources is responsible for energy policy. In all cases, the setting-up of an independent ministry of energy

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or a department exclusively dealing on energy issues has increased the momentum for the preparation of the national energy policy documents. Even though the restructuring of government institutions has accelerated the formulation of national energy policy, in some cases, the restructuring itself created at least temporary problems. For example, in 1995 in Uganda, the Ministry of Natural Resources was restructured into two ministries: Ministry of Land, Water and Environment and the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (Kamese, 2005). This restructuring was done in the middle of the energy policy formulation process and created a delay. The establishment of dedicated ministries and departments of energy seems to have an effect on the research-policy link in another way. Energy specialists get a better chance to exclusively focus on energy research. The ministries and departments of energy in the project countries have played an important role in the mobilisation of energy specialists – including those outside the ministry. Improvements in energy research as a result of these institutional re-organisations have had a positive impact on the research-policy link. Nevertheless, a strong epistemic community in the energy sector has not yet emerged. The organisational restructuring of government ministries has also influenced the formulation of energy policy in general and the renewable energy policy in particular according to the respondents of the survey. Sixty percent of the respondents indicate that the organisational restructuring has affected preparation of policy documents. Apart from organisational restructuring, changes in key personnel are significant factors influencing policy formulation especially in African countries that are generally characterised by institutional weaknesses. In cases where there are strong and long-lasting institutions, changes of personnel are not expected to significantly affect activities; long-established institutional traditions operate steadily even under very different types of key personnel. In many instances, in the study countries, appointments of particular personnel to ministerial or permanent secretary positions have significantly affected the formulation of the national energy policy. Nearly two-third of the respondents indicate that a change in key personnel in the department/ministry of energy has significantly affected the formulation of energy policy. The importance of key personnel in the energy department/ministry can be contrasted with the importance of other possible factors influencing the energy policy process. According to the opinion of respondents, the creation of new policy related institutions, the recruitment of local and external skilled manpower seem to be less important in influencing the policy process compared to changes in key personnel within the ministry/department of energy. While the majority of respondents indicate that changes in key personnel in the department/ministry of energy has affected the preparation of renewable energy policy document, the creation of new institutions and the recruitment of skilled local personnel is given lesser importance. Interestingly, the recruitment of external skilled personnel is given more importance than institutional concerns and local skilled manpower. This is confirmed by the higher proportion of respondents (54%) accepting that the recruitment of external skilled personnel affected the preparation of renewable energy policy when compared to the percentage of respondents who felt that local personnel had affected the preparation of the policy. The appointment of some key personnel in the ministry/department of energy has played an important role in increasing the impetus in the preparation of the national energy policy document in the study countries. The above findings indicate the significant role individuals in key positions play. As indicated above, this is partially a reflection of institutional weaknesses that characterises most African countries which has important implication for the research-policy link; a healthy research-policy link strongly depends on key personnel in the energy ministry/department. Key personnel with good contact and networking with the research community can strengthen the link and improve the nature of the relationship. Hence, if governments are interested in strengthening the research-policy link, one of the criteria that should be used in the appointment of key personnel

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has to be how suitable the individuals are for networking with and mobilising the research community. A high rate of staff turnover in government institutions is one characteristic feature of the study countries. For example, in Zimbabwe, the Department of Energy has seen at least six different ministers since 1981 (Mapako and Mzezewa, 2005). In addition to this fast turnover at the top, that at the level of the rank-and-file is also high. This turnover is partly accelerated by the shift in emphasis from project-related towards general policy-oriented activities that accompanied structural adjustment programmes. The skills and interest required for different activities is different encouraging staff to move to other sectors. In certain instances, this turnover of manpower can strengthen the research-policy link. For example, in Zimbabwe many personnel that left the department of energy moved to more research oriented institutions; maintenance of their links with their former colleagues in the department of energy strengthened the research-policy link. While the previous sub-section outlined the main events in the energy policy formulation process, the subsequent section examines institutional and manpower issues. In the next sub-section, we will particularly focus on the main institutions involved in policy making and research and explore another important dimension of GDN’s framework of explanatory variables – “external influence” (Court, et al, 2005).

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3.3. Who are the Major Actors? In all the countries, the initiation of the energy policy was started by the ministry/department of energy. In Botswana (Themba, 2005), as indicated before, the energy policy formulation was essentially a product of the national development plans and earlier Energy Master Plan work. In the study countries, specific initiatives that feed into the preparation of the national energy policy documents were, in all cases, initiated by governments. For example, in Zimbabwe (Mapako & Mzezewa, 2005), the government took the initiative to prepare the National Biomass Energy Strategy (NBES) that fed into the national energy policy document. There are no instances where the initiative to formulate the national energy policy documents came from non-governmental sources. Nor are there instances where non-governmental institutions played an important role in initiating the process. For example, no civic organisations such as NGOs or independent research institutions pressurised the government to initiate the process for formulating the energy policy document. There could be instances where the pressure from external donors created a spur for initiating the policy making process; but in terms of domestic institutions, the ministry of energy plays a dominant role in the initiation and agenda setting stage. Again, this indicates the absence of a strong epistemic community in the energy sector. The above generalisations captured by the timeline analysis as well as the focus group discussions are also confirmed by the responses from the survey questionnaires. The specific question posed to respondents to capture their opinion was (Question 3.6 in the survey questionnaire attached at the end of this report):

“According to your opinion, who were the most important driving forces in the preparation of the national energy policy document?”

Respondents were asked to rank the government, international/external multilateral institutions (e.g., World Bank, IMF), national research institutions, regional (African or sub-African) institutions, international research institutions and others in their order of importance in the preparation of the energy policy document. In response, more than 70% of the respondents indicate that the government is the most important driving force. Following far behind in the second position are international or multilateral institutions (mainly the World Bank and IMF) with around 20%. This lesser significance of the multilateral institutions probably should not be surprising. With structural adjustment programmes, both the focus of the multilateral institutions as well as the central policy making bodies have shifted towards more macroeconomic issues and the poverty alleviation agenda. As a result the direct and active involvement of multilateral institutions in sector level policies like energy is not as strong as in the macro and poverty policy issues. Correspondingly, the pressure and initiatives from the multilateral institutions directed towards the formulation of the energy policy document is not as significant as the broader policy issues. But also note that the highest number of respondents listed the multilateral institutions as the second most important institutions. Hence, according to the opinion of the policy makers and researchers surveyed, while the government is the most important driving force, the multilateral institutions are the next important forces. When the data are further disaggregated to country levels, one interesting fact emerges. The same pattern – government as the most important and multilateral institutions as the second important institutions – emerges for the four countries except Uganda. In the case of Uganda, 50% of the respondents said that multilateral institutions are the most important (ranked first) and also 50% indicated that the government is the second most important actor. This perceived higher importance of multilateral institutions as compared to the government probably reflects the more intensive engagement of the government with the multilateral institutions. As Uganda is considered a star of Africa in the structural adjustment programme, a more intensive engagement of the multilateral institutions is expected. If domestic researchers resent this perceived intensive engagement with the multilateral institutions, it may create a barrier to the

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strengthening of the research-policy link. The involvement of local researchers in the initiatives of the multilateral institutions should also be encouraged to minimise the damage from this possible resentment. The survey further indicates important results particularly in relation to research institutions. Only around 2% of the respondents indicate that national and international research institutions played the most important role. In addition, no respondent mentioned the regional institutions as the most important (ranked first) driving forces. At least in terms of the subjective evaluation of the respondents, the role of national, regional and international research institutions in the formulation of energy policy is not paramount. These results are indications of weaknesses in research institutions; they still do not have the power to significantly influence the energy policy process. The results also suggest the lack of a strong epistemic community in the energy sector that can influence the energy policy process. In addition, the results are also indicative of the relative importance of national, regional and international research organisations. From research institutions, national research organisations are perceived to be the most important followed probably by international and then by regional organisations. The relatively low importance given to regional research organisations (like AFREPREN) indicate there is still far to go among the regional organisations in terms of becoming influential in national energy policies. The overwhelming dominance of the government in the formulation of energy policy is a result of the structural and institutional set-up of most African countries including the study countries covered here. Weaknesses in civil society organisations and academic and research institutions, a less competitive political system and correspondingly muted contestation of public policy issues are characteristics of these countries, in particular, and developing countries, in general. However, some of the current trends in public policy formulation in developed countries underscore the increasing importance of civil society institutions. Traditional institutions that historically had an omnipotent grip on the policy making process, like the bureaucracy, etc., no more seem to have that monopoly. Generally accepted rules and norms of policy making are increasingly being challenged and replaced by new ones. And these changes usually are driven by civil society organisations that were traditionally marginal in policy making (like professional, environmental, religious, pressure groups of one sort or another). Hajer (2003) and others characterised this situation as policy making in an “institutional void”. A more decentralised and contested institutional setting will create a better situation for a more active involvement of researchers in the policy making process. This will have a positive effect on the research-policy link. But the situation in the study countries as well as most African countries is far from this. Hence, the overwhelming dominance of the government in the energy policy formulation process is no surprise given the non-existence of a strong epistemic community in the energy sector. The structural problems are further exacerbated by the fact that energy issues usually occupy an undeservedly low priority in most public policy debates. Energy issues were brought to the forefront of public policy especially after the oil crisis and hence making them relatively new as compared to other traditional issues like health, education, foreign trade, etc. In addition, civil society organisations currently active in most African countries – particularly international and domestic NGOs – that focus on energy related issues are very small in number (if not non-existence in some countries). Hence, in addition to the fundamental structural problems relevant for maintaining a lively debate on all public policies and the absence of a well-entrenched epistemic community in the energy sector, the current conditions in the study countries are not particularly supportive of debates on energy related policies. In spite of the fact that governments are the most important driving forces in the setting the agenda for the formulation of energy policy, in all the five countries, consultation with stakeholders was done. As a rule, experts from outside the government and stakeholders in the energy sector were consulted. In all the study countries, seminars and workshops with

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participation from members of the research community and consultants – both domestic and foreign – and other stakeholders were organised. This is also confirmed by the information gathered by the survey questionnaires. Around 60% of the relevant respondents – those who have responded ‘yes’ or ‘no’ – agree that sufficient number of workshops for the formulation of the renewable energy policy were held. But this figure should be treated cautiously since a significant number of respondents chose ‘Don’t know’; if we consider the numbers that responded ‘Don’t know’ around 60% said either ‘No’ or ‘Don’t know’ which makes the results rather ambivalent. The above ambivalence is also reflected in the response on whether the renewable energy policy document covers all relevant issues. If surveyed policy makers and researchers believe that there was strong participation of all stakeholders, one would also expect them to believe that the policy document covers all the relevant issues. However, only 31% of the respondents agree or strongly agree with the statement that the document covers all relevant issues. In the current and immediately preceding sub-sections the focus was on the specific conditions surrounding the formulation of the energy policy document. Since the energy policy documents are prepared within the specific political, economic, external and institutional contexts of the study countries, understanding those conditions will help understand factors affecting the research-policy link. The next sub-section reviews the main political, economic, external and institutional contexts that had a bearing on the research-policy links in the five countries. It explores the interaction of two important dimensions of the GDN framework of explanatory variables, namely “context” and “external influence” (Court, et al, 2005). 3.4. The Wider Context The formulation of energy policy is part of the overall policy-making process, and hence changes in political, economic, external and institutional conditions have bearing on its pace and nature. This sub-section will very briefly summarise the more important contextual conditions that influenced the formulation of energy policy and the research-policy link. As mentioned earlier, the discussion in this section is effectively within the “external influence” and “context” clusters of explanatory variables as per GDN’s analytical framework. The policy environment of most developing countries has been significantly affected by the structural adjustment and liberalisation programmes currently pursued. As indicated previously, structural adjustment and liberalisation programmes pursued in developing countries – including the study countries – have generally shifted the focus of government policy from project based activities to wider policy issues. This shift in policy affected energy policy formulation in the study countries in contradictory ways. On the one hand, the focus on more comprehensive policy issues rather than on specific projects gave a spur to the development of a comprehensive energy policy document. In some cases, the emphasis given to poverty alleviation encouraged the development of specific energy related policies. For example, in Uganda the designing of the rural electrification programme was stimulated by policy focus on poverty reduction (Kamese, 2005). On the other, the focus on more macro rather than sector level issues in certain instances led to the neglect of energy policy. For example, in the case of Zimbabwe, the structural adjustment programme shifted funds from energy related research and development towards the support of other general policy endeavours (Mapako and Mzezewa, 2005). These reallocations affected policy research in the energy sector and correspondingly the research-policy link. When looking at the formulation of energy policy on the one hand and the overall reform programmes on the other, one cannot but feel that the two processes move parallel to each other; there seems to be a lack of coordination between the two. For example, poverty reduction is believed to be intimately related to investments in education and health; compared to the two sectors, insufficient emphasis seems to be given to energy sector policies. In most African countries, there are no clear links between the Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP) and the energy policy documents. First, the institutions involved in drafting the respective documents are different. PRSPs are drafted by finance and planning ministries with

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the active support and monitoring of multilateral institutions, particularly the World Bank. The energy policy documents, as we have seen, are prepared by the ministries/departments of energy. Second, there are no explicit links between energy sector policies and poverty reduction; for example, how recommended energy policies will contribute to poverty alleviation is not made clear. The overall objective of poverty alleviation seems to be lost when sector level policies are drafted. The aforementioned differences in the formulation and content of more general and energy sector policies also affect the types of research used in the respective undertakings. For monitoring developments in the welfare of the population as part of the PRSPs, most African countries, including the study countries generate a lot of data using periodic nationally representative household surveys administered by their central statistical offices. The analysis of these data is used to monitor progress in attaining objectives laid out in the PRSPs. In the case of the energy policy documents, as we will see in the next section, most of the research related inputs are done mainly in the form of consultancies. Creating a more permanent data collection mechanism that can help research supporting the energy policy process should be pursued as an important measure for improving the research-policy link. It would also strengthen the link between micro-level household and enterprise level energy data survey/research and energy policy. The experience of Botswana (Themba, 2005) makes it an exception in this respect. In the case of Botswana, the energy policy document was part of the national planning – the National Development Plan. The first major step towards formulation of the energy policy document was introduced by the Botswana Energy Master Plan (BEMP) in 1985. This was followed by a series of reviews between 1987 and 2003. Unlike the experiences of the other four countries the preparation of the energy policy document was fully integrated into the design of a wider policy instrument. The integration of Botswana’s energy policy into the National Development Plan is an important development as it has ensured the renewable energy projects receive significant financial appropriations from the national budget. In contrast, in other countries where the energy policy is not part of national development plans, renewable energy projects receive limited funding from national budgets and largely rely on donor support. This is not only true for the other four country studies, but also applies to most sub-Saharan African countries. As we have seen in a previous section, the formulation of the energy policy document was a long-drawn process. This coupled with the fast and dynamic changes in the overall policy regimes of the countries – basically related to the implementation of structural adjustment programmes – created a situation where many issues discussed in the energy policy were outdated because of the wider macro-economic reform programmes. The pace and nature of the formulation of the national energy policy document are influenced by many exogenous factors – factors not directly related to policy formulation itself. For example, the establishment of the Ministry of Energy in the late seventies and the subsequent increased attention to energy policy in Kenya was a direct consequence of the oil crisis of the 1970s (Mbuthi, 2005). Subsequently, the lower world oil prices in the 1980s were one of the reasons for the relative neglect of energy policy in Kenya. Again the severe drought of 1999-2000 and the subsequent power shortage in Kenya increased the focus on long-term energy policy. In Uganda, the prospect of benefiting from the East African Energy Master Plan drafted under the auspices of NEPAD (New Partnership for Africa’s Development) was one regional/external factor facilitating the formulation of the national energy policy document (Kamese, 2005). The Bujagali hydro power dam project financed mainly by the World Bank is also believed to influence the pace of energy policy formulation in Uganda. Even though Botswana has benefited from the availability of relatively cheap imported energy, the expected decrease in the southern African energy surplus in the foreseeable future has increased interest on energy-related policies (Themba, 2005).

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The importance of exogenous factors – both internal and external to the country – in influencing the formulation of energy policy is also affirmed by data from survey questionnaires. Around two-third of the relevant respondents indicate that external influences have significantly impacted on the formulation of the energy policy (but note the significant number of respondents that said ‘Don’t know’). There are specific cases indicating the influence of external factors. For example, in Uganda the study for the formulation of the energy policy was funded by GTZ, a German aid agency (Kamese, 2005). In addition, the energy policy document itself notes that the World Bank has been involved in its formulation extensively. External factors seem to have important influence on energy policy formulation even though in relative terms, the direct intervention of multilateral institutions may be relatively lower compared to other policy formulations as indicated in previous sections. But in addition to external factors, changes in the energy sector itself may have influenced policy. According to the opinions of the respondents while the influence of changes in the energy sector as a whole are deemed very important, changes in the renewable sub-sector itself are not given equal importance. Sector level and international factors seem to be more important in influencing energy policy more than particular conditions in the sub-sector. Changes in wider policy contexts seem to play a more important role than those related to specific sub-sectors. The overall shift of government policies towards a more liberal and pluralistic stance in all the project countries seems to strengthen the research-policy link. A more pluralistic attitude encourages participation; involvement of outside experts and consultation of stakeholders seems to have improved with recent reforms. The emphasis on the private sector as an important source of development probably has also encouraged a more active involvement of independent researchers and consultants in policy formulation and consultation. The survey questionnaires gathered the opinions of policy maker and researchers on the influence of political and macroeconomic events on the formulation of energy policies. Surprisingly, political events in the study countries do not seem to have played an exceptionally important role in influencing the formulation of energy policy; only around half of the respondents said that political events were significant. At the country level, only in the case Kenya, is the number of people that responded ‘yes’ significantly higher than those who said ‘no’; this probably is due to the recent regime change in the country. On the other hand, three-quarters of the relevant respondents agree that macroeconomic changes significantly affected the formulation of energy policy. Macroeconomic conditions seem to be more influential in shaping energy policy than political events according to the perceptions of the respondents. For all individual countries, those who responded yes are greater in number that those who said no. Respondents were also asked if international institutions exerted pressure for research to be used in the formulation of energy policies. Around 42% of the respondents indicated that international institutions exert heavy, some or little pressure for the use of research in renewable energy policy. But note the significant number of respondents with ‘No pressure’ and ‘Don’t know’ (around 57%). Note also the proportion of people that believed that international institutions exert heavy pressure is only 2%. Hence, generally one gets the impression that international institutions probably improve the research-policy link by exerting some pressure for the use of research in energy policy. But the pressure probably is not as importance as one may generally expect. This finding also implies that for improving the research-policy link, influential international institutions should probably have to do more. The experiences of other countries may be important in influencing the formulation of energy policy documents since most African countries, including the study countries, started the process relatively late. This seems to be confirmed by the fact that more than 80% of the relevant responses in the survey questionnaire indicate that the experiences of other countries significantly influenced the policy process. This implies a learning process from each others experience. Regional research and policy organisations like AFREPREN can play a crucial role

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in enhancing this learning process. This can also facilitate the research-policy link as research done in one country can facilitate policy making in others; this in fact introduces a regional/international dimension in the research-policy link. If there is a strong tradition of learning from other countries, the relevant research-policy nexus is not be confined within national borders. Regional and international level organisations may create the institutional basis for this kind of inter-country relationship. The next section will focus on the particular features of the research inputs that have influenced the energy policy formulation processes in the study countries.

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4.0 Energy policy research in Eastern and Southern Africa The previous section examined the energy policy formulation process and identified issues that are relevant in the research-policy link. This section will focus on examining the characteristic features of researches that influenced the energy policy formulation – this constitutes the “evidence” dimension of GDN’s framework of explanatory variables (Court, et al, 2005). But, in addition, issues related to the relationship between researchers and policy makers will be discussed; the later is part of the “links” dimension of GDN’s framework (Court, et al, 2005). The first sub-section identifies the research undertakings related to the policy formulation in the study countries. While the second sub-section examines the characteristic features of these research undertakings, the last one reviews future prospects in the research-policy link. As in the previous section, findings from text analysis, focus group discussions, interview of key personnel as well as from the survey questionnaires are used. 4.1. Research inputs during the formulation of energy policy As indicated in the discussion of the energy policy formulation process in the previous section, the most important stage where research can influence energy policy is the initial stage; the direct influence of research on the policy making process when the document is discussed at the cabinet and then at parliament – if it is to be enacted as law – is currently minimal. The terms and nature of research to be undertaken at the initial stage is controlled by the ministry/department of energy of the respective countries. Hence, we expect that researches or consultancies that are commissioned at this stage to be more influential. As indicated before, one of the methods used here to identify the influence of research on energy policy is text analysis. The texts of the national energy policy documents of each country were analysed to identify possible links with research undertakings. The analysis of the text of the policy document was expected to reveal if certain research undertakings have exerted significant influence on policy. However, unlike academic papers, most policy documents do not have comprehensive citations and referencing. Hence, identifying the sources of specific ideas – from which previous research ideas are drawn – is difficult. To overcome this problem, comparison of the texts of the policy document with those of research or consultancy reports closely related to the policy formulation was undertaken. The country studies made detailed text comparisons between the national energy policy document and at least one consultancy or research report specifically commissioned for the energy policy formulation process. The results indicate a very high level of similarity between the texts of the consultancy/research reports and the national energy policy documents. In Zimbabwe, the text of the National Biomass Energy Strategy (NBES) is very similar to the report commissioned to two consultants – Campbell and Mangono in 1995 (Mapako and Mzezewa, 2005). In Kenya, a significant part of the text of the national energy policy document is entirely picked up from a previous commissioned study – the Kamfor report (Mbuthi, 2005). In Tanzania, sections of the national energy policy document that addressed renewable energy have significant resemblance to a study report prepared by TATEDO – a domestic independent consultancy/research organization (Kaare, 2005). These results indicate that the content of the consultancy reports that was written to facilitate policy formulation did very much determine the content of the policy document. In Botswana, the main input into the New and Renewable Sources of Energy (NRSE) section of the policy document, was the Master Plan Study on PV Rural Electrification. This was a comprehensive nationwide study carried out by energy experts from Japan under the auspices of the Japan International Co-operation Agency – JICA (Themba, 2005). The study involved a number of smaller studies and was designed to formulate a master plan for promotion of rural electrification mainly using PV technology. Research studies that supported the energy policy formulation in Botswana are part of a wider undertaking since the energy policy is formulated as an integral part of a comprehensive

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national plan (Themba, 2005). In the case of the other four countries, the studies commissioned are isolated consultancies that don’t seem to fit into an overall national level policy framework. In all the five countries, a general shift from a policy focusing mainly on supply-side issues – for example, construction of the infrastructure to supply energy – to one that takes demand-side considerations more seriously is discernible. This shift had an impact on the type of research immediately necessary for policy formulation. More technical disciplines like engineering played the predominant role in previous cases; but emphasis on demand-side aspects encouraged more research in other social science disciplines. In other words, the mix of energy research inputs that are needed has changed. This move from supply- to demand-oriented approach is also related to the general move from project-level issues to more general ones. In addition, with the more liberal policy atmosphere of the later decades of the 20th century, the private sector is accorded more importance in the current energy policy documents. The emphasis given to the private sector has influenced the nature of the research-policy link. Overall, the involvement of private and independent research and consultancy groups is increasing with the liberalisation of the policy environment. In addition to text analysis and qualitative information gathered from interviews and focus group discussions, additional information on research inputs into policy was gathered by using survey questionnaires among policy makers and researchers. The following paragraphs summarise the main results from the surveys. The general character of the link between governments and researchers in each country is an essential determinant of how much researchers are involved in particular policy undertakings. For example, if there is general distrust and lack of communication between the government and the research community in a country, one would not expect substantial interaction between the two in the formulation of policy. To ascertain conditions in the study countries, respondents were asked how they generally characterise the link between policy makers and researchers. Sixty seven percent of the respondents indicate that the relationship is either satisfactory or better. If the figures are disaggregated to country levels significant number of respondents in Kenya and Uganda responded that the relationship is either bad or very bad. Fifteen respondents out of 27 (56%) in the case of Kenya and 14 out of 37 (38%) in Uganda said the relationship is either bad or very bad. The results indicate that, at least in terms of the perception of the respondents, on the average, the general nature of the relationship between policy makers and researchers probably may not be a major problem for the research-policy link except for some of the countries, particularly Kenya. After examining the general relationship between policy makers and researchers, the questionnaire probed the respondents on the role of research in the formulation of the national energy policy. Almost an equal percentage of respondents – 35% and 37% – generally agree or disagree with the statement that the government has fully utilised the research potential of the country in formulating the national energy policy. On the average the responses are ambivalent. At the country level, again Kenya and Uganda stand out; from the 26 and 36 respondents in Kenya and Uganda, respectively, 14 (54%) and 17 (47%) respectively either disagree or strongly disagree with the statement. Particularly in Kenya, there seems to be greater dissatisfaction in both the general as well as the particular conditions of the research-policy link. Limited utilisation of research in the policy making process might be attributed to the policy makers’ perception that research might either be of poor quality or irrelevant:

“The big challenge is how to ensure the research problems are relevant and how to package the research reports in ways that make them acceptable to the policymakers …” Mr. P. Nyoike, Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Energy, Kenya

Next, the questionnaires gathered information on whether researchers were directly invited to participate in the formulation of the renewable energy policy. A higher proportion of the respondents (49%) agreed that researchers were directly invited to participate in the formulation

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of the national energy policy than they disagreed (27%). Even though more respondents indicated that researchers were directly invited to participate, slightly more respondents did not think that researchers were sufficiently involved in the formulation of the national energy policy. These results indicate that according to the opinion of the respondents, the participation of researchers in the energy policy making process was not fully satisfactory on the average for the five countries. Looking at conditions at the country level, some important variations can be seen. Here also around 55% of the respondents from Kenya indicated that there wasn’t sufficient participation by researchers in the formulation of the energy policy document reinforcing the negative opinion already reported above. In contrast in Botswana, all except one agreed that there was sufficient involvement. In overall terms, the above results imply that there was insufficient involvement by the researchers in the formulation of the energy policy. The causes for this can be many. Some of the causes are from the government side. For example, as the evidence presented above indicates, the governments probably did not invite all relevant researchers to workshops and related activities. Only a relatively small proportion of the respondents also indicated that governments have fully utilised the research potential of the countries. But some of the problems that resulted in a limited participation of researchers in the formulation of the energy policy can be from the researchers’ side. If insufficient or irrelevant research on renewable energy is undertaken, this by itself constrains the participation of researchers in policy formulation. This seems to be confirmed by the data from the survey questionnaire. Nearly three quarters of the respondents said that there isn’t sufficient research on renewable energy in the study countries. This is further confirmed by country level figures (see Table 4.1); for each country more than half of the respondents said that there isn’t sufficient research on the renewable sub-sector. Hence, the limited research capacity in all the study countries is also an important explanatory factor for the unsatisfactory influence of research on policy making. The failure of governments to mobilise the research capacity in the country is exacerbated by the lack of research capacity itself. Table 4.1: Is sufficient research into the renewable sub-sector done in your country? (by country) Yes No Don’t know Total Botswana 2 5 1 8 Kenya 0 21 5 26 Tanzania 5 9 0 14 Uganda 5 27 4 36 Zimbabwe 5 11 0 16 Total 17 73 10 100 If overall research capacity of the study countries is limited, then the influence of either a single or small number of research projects on the formulation of the energy process is expected to be significant. This is confirmed for the national energy policy document as a whole as well as for renewable energy policy. In both cases, more than 70% of the respondents said that particular research studies have significantly influenced the content of energy policy. In Uganda, the Honourable Minister of State for Energy assured the focus group (covered by the Uganda country researcher) that:

“…the Uganda Government believes in policies formulated based on research foundations”

However, the following sentiment from a participant of one of the focus group meeting indicates general dissatisfaction with the prevailing policy-research link:

“… a lot of research is being done which the policymakers are not aware of, while on the other hand policymakers are making decisions and do not know where to get the necessary research evidence”. Mr. M. Mapako, Zimbabwe.

If a single or few research related projects/studies/consultancies have significantly influenced the national energy policy, the next step in our analysis is to examine these projects and attempt to identify their particular characteristics. This will enable us to know the characteristics of

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research undertakings that make them potent in influencing research. This is done in the next sub-section. 4.2. Characteristic features of influential research undertakings The findings from timeline and text analyses as well as from focus group discussions and the survey questionnaires indicate that the energy policy documents have been greatly influenced by research studies/consultancies that have been undertaken as part of the policy formulation. Hence, looking at the characteristics of organisations that have participated in these research undertakings is crucial to understand what factors enhanced the research-policy link. In essence, this would provide useful insights for “evidence” and “links” clusters of explanatory variables as per GDN’s analytical framework. The National Focus Group discussions which comprised of different stakeholders including policy makers, researchers and academicians spontaneously identified the following research or consultancy reports or organisations as the most influential in the formulation of the national energy policy documents – particularly the renewable energy sections.

1. In Botswana, the Master Plan Study on PV Rural Electrification done by Japan International Co-operation Agency (Themba, 2005)

2. In Kenya, the Kamfor report (Mbuthi, 2005)4

3. In Tanzania, TATEDO report (Kaare, 2005)

4. In Uganda, AFREPREN and a study of geothermal exploration by Geological

Survey and Mines Department - GSMD (Kamese, 2005)5

5. In Zimbabwe, the Campbell and Mangono (1995) report (Mapako and Mzezewa, 2005)

In the following paragraphs the characteristic features of these researches or consultancies are briefly discussed. For a detailed discussion refer to the country reports available on the AFREPREN website (see http://www.afrepren.org/project/gdn/Appendix3_Country Reports.pdf). Botswana: The Master Plan Study on PV Rural Electrification is a comprehensive national study carried by the Japan International Co-operation Agency – JICA (Themba, 2005). This document outlined a ten-year plan for the electrification of rural areas of Botswana using PV starting from 2003. This study was the major input into the New and Renewable Source of Energy (NRSE) section of the national energy policy document. The important characteristic features of this study that made it influential are listed below:

1. The JICA report was the most comprehensive study ever carried out in the energy sector in general and the renewable sub-sector in particular. Its comprehensiveness made it attractive.

2. The study was done by a team of reputable energy experts with international

experience. This increased its credibility.

3. Policy makers from Energy Affairs Division (EAD), the department responsible for energy in the Ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Resources, were directly involved in the study. This created a direct link between the research undertaking and the policy makers.

4 Also applies to the power sector in Kenya 5 Also applicable to the power sector in Uganda

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4. The timing of the study was right; it was completed just before review of the renewable energy policy. Hence, it provided the most up-to-date data and an analysis of current situations then.

5. In terms of links and networks, to a significant extend, the shared interest in solar

PV between JICA and the policy makers in the Ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Resources also contributed to the report being influential.

Kenya: The study conducted by Kamfor Company Limited for the Ministry of Energy entitled “Energy Demand, Supply, and Policy Strategies for Household, Small-Scale Industries and Service Establishments” (2002) is identified as the most important document that influenced Kenya’s energy policy particularly with regard to biomass energy policy (Mbuthi, 2005) as well as the power sub-sector policy (Mbithi, 2005)6. The report is commonly referred to as the Kamfor study. The following important features were identified as those that have played an important role in increasing the influence of the Kamfor study (some of which are also applicable to the studies for the power sub-sector policy):

1. Eventual acceptance of the report was ensured because the study was commissioned by the Government.

2. Kamfor Company Limited is a national/domestic institution specialising on energy

studies/consultancies.

3. The Ministry of Energy was responsible for the coordination of the consultancy, and provided information, data and counterpart personnel for the study. The Ministry also provided detailed feedback on the study.

4. As part of the terms of reference for the study, the Government had directed the

consultant to thoroughly review a number of pre-selected key research works that included MA, MSc and PhD theses. This expressed the Government’s wish to utilize earlier research results.

5. The change of Government and the appointment of a new minister and permanent

secretary in the Ministry of Energy provided a favourable condition. In addition, the fact that the new permanent secretary was coordinating the Kamfor study in his earlier capacity also helped.

6. In networking terms, the range of energy issues covered in the Kamfor study might

also have contributed to its influence on the energy policy.

7. In the case of the power sub-sector policy, the East African Power Master Plan was largely carried out by specialized experts and institutions in the region hence deemed credible.

Tanzania: The study commissioned to TATEDO – entitled ‘Sub-Sector Review on Renewable and Rural Energy in Tanzania’ – was an important input into the national energy document of the country particularly to the renewable energy part (Kaare, 2005). The following important characteristics were identified in the Tanzanian country report:

1. TATEDO is a national/domestic organisation. This probably gives an advantage over foreign institutions if fear of foreign influence/interference is high.

6 The power sub-sector policy also appears to have been influenced by the Least Cost Power Development Plan, East African Power Master Plan and the Rural Electrification Programme (REP) Master Plan.

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2. TATEDO specialises on renewable energy. The readiness of policy-makers in the Ministry of Energy and Mines to uptake the recommendations from TATEDO was probably influenced by its specialised nature.

3. TATEDO’s report covered not only national but regional and international

experiences. This made the report more comprehensive.

4. TATEDO was also involved in previous energy-related projects. The positive past experience cemented the good reputation that the organisation has successfully forged.

5. Policy-makers were directly involved in the TATEDO study. The involvement of

policy-makers in the review process is one of the reasons why a lot of the ideas from the review were directly incorporated into the national energy policy document.

6. The founder and coordinator of TATEDO was a previous employee of the Ministry

of Energy and Minerals. Even though the organisation is autonomous, its network with the ministry has obviously played an important role in explaining its influence.

Uganda: Two institutions, AFREPREN and the Geological Survey and Mines Department (GSMD), were identified as the most important influential institutions in the energy policy formulation of Uganda (for both renewables and power sub-sectoral policies) by the country reports (Kamese, 2005; Okumu, 2005). The relevant characteristics of AFREPREN that made it influential in Uganda are:

1. AFREPREN has record of working on objective research by mobilising energy experts of the region. The track history of credible research has made AFREPREN a credible research institute among policy makers in Uganda.

2. The fact that AFREPREN has specialised in energy studies has also helped to

increase its credibility.

3. AFREPREN has a strong tradition of engaging policy makers in its research undertakings; the fact that this interaction is done on a regional level also creates a suitable condition for learning from other countries’ experiences.

4. AFREPREN’s publication of research findings and the dissemination among

stakeholders has also increased its influence in policy making. In this case, the shared interests between AFREPREN and the stakeholders played a significant role in influencing the national energy policy.

On the other hand, the relevant characteristics of GSMD that made it influential in energy policy are:

1. The fact that GSMD is a government department in charge of geothermal development automatically makes it relevant to the policy making process; the tasks entrusted to it are tasks that will directly feed into the policy making process.

2. In the geothermal exploration project, GSMD has used the skills of experts from

Iceland; in addition to local expertise, the involvement of foreign experts from a country with a long experience in geothermal technology has significantly increased the credibility of GSMD’s studies.

3. GSMD has specialised expertise in geology and mines and long experience in

geothermal research; alternative sources for this type of research do not exist in Uganda.

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4. As a Government department, policy makers are automatically involved in the activities of GSMS guaranteeing a direct link between researchers and policy makers.

Zimbabwe: In the case of Zimbabwe, a study done by Campbell and Mangono (1995) was influential (Mapako and Mzezewa, 2005). The following characteristics are important in its successful influence of policy:

1. Relevance of the study was virtually guaranteed as it was commissioned by the Government for the specific purpose of reviewing its biomass energy strategy.

2. Policy makers showed significant interest in the study and were also continuously

involved in the review process.

3. The study was carried out by two local experts, one from academia and one from Government; this combination of people from academic background and policy making was an important feature.

4. Though funded by government using bilateral GTZ funds, influence of the donor on

the outcome is not apparent. In all the cases mentioned, except the case of AFREPREN, all the studies that are identified as important are commissioned by the Government; the influence of these studies should not be too surprising as these are studies particularly geared towards formulating the energy policies. The fact that no study done by an independent research organisation – except AFREPREN – has been identified as very important in influencing policy is indicative of the weakness or scarcity of autonomous academic and other institutions that undertake directly policy-relevant research. It is also indicative of the absence of a strong epistemic community (Haas, 1990, 1992; Boudourides, undated) in the energy sector. Of course, the studies commissioned by the Governments may have extensively used already existing research outputs from academic and related institutions. Subject to resources constraints, the degree to which they have depended on previous research will be further examined in the next phase of this subject. But one can see that the role of previous research is probably not so important because most of the studies identified here gathered new information and dealt on areas comprehensively as never done before. The above observation is indicative of the weakness in the energy research potential of the study countries – which is also generally true of Africa as a whole. The impression one gets from the review of the experiences of the study countries is that the need for a policy formulation essentially drives the need for more comprehensive policy related research. In other words, instead of independent research undertakings providing the direction and alternatives for policy options, it seems the need for formulating specific policies drives the research agenda. The link mainly flows from policy to research rather than being from research to policy. At least in the short term, researchers’ best chance of influencing policy depends on their ability to engage in commissioned research or consultancies from Governments. As most of the studies are commissioned by Governments, the involvement of policy makers in them is almost automatic. In all the studies identified above, policy makers are directly involved in the studies – even AFREPREN which is an independent research organisation involves policy makers in its research activities. The involvement of policy makers has improved the chance of influencing policy. Hence, energy policy researchers should attempt to involve relevant policy makers. The importance of involving policy makers in research is also confirmed by the responses from the survey questionnaires. While almost 70% of the respondents agreed to the statement “Energy related institutions involving policy makers in research influence policy more than those that don’t”, only 15% disagreed.

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Specialisation of the research/consultancy organisations in energy related issues also is an important factor for being influential. It comes up repeatedly in the experience of the study countries; all institutions identified have specialised on energy issues. The importance of specialisation in energy as an important factor is also confirmed by the data from the survey questionnaires. Over 70% of the respondents agree to the statement “Specialised energy research institutions influence policy more than non-specialised energy research institutions” and only 14% disagreed. The importance of specialisation could seem to contradict the importance of macro-economic policies which was perceived to be very important in the time line analysis. It would appear that the best characteristics would be a specialized energy research institution with either good links to macro-economic research institutions or some in-house macro-economic expertise. All research instruments used in this study indicate that the involvement of policy makers in research and specialisation of organisations in energy related activities are important factors in affecting influence over policy. But such a strong result does not come out when we look at the role of domestic or regional or international organisations. As we have seen in the brief description of the studies above some are national, other regional and still other international. For example, the Kamfor, TATEDO and Campbell and Mangono reports are domestically based undertakings. In contrast, international involvement in the case of Botswana and Uganda were significant. A clear cut conclusion which favours either domestic or external organisations does not seem to emerge at least on the regional level. This is also supported by the responses from the survey questionnaires. While around 38% of respondents agreed to the statement “National energy research institutions influence policymaking more than foreign regional research institutions”, nearly 30% disagreed; opinion is not overwhelming in favour or otherwise of the statement (see Table 4.2). When looking at disaggregated figures at the country levels, reflecting the experiences of countries, while in Kenya there are more respondents who agree than those disagreeing, in Uganda, there are more respondents who disagree with the statement. This difference at least partially reflects the better development of domestic institutions in Kenya as compared to Uganda. Table 4.2: “National energy research institutions influence policymaking more than foreign research institutions” (by countries)

Country

Botswana Kenya Tanzania Uganda Zimbabwe

Total

Strongly disagree 0 2 0 5 1 8

Disagree 1 2 4 11 2 20

Neither 4 8 4 9 8 33

Agree 3 10 3 8 6 30

Strongly agree 0 3 3 2 0 8

Total 8 25 14 35 17 99

The above findings on influential institutions give the impression that, except in the case of Uganda, the importance of regional research institutions is relatively low compared to national organisations. This is confirmed by responses from the survey questionnaires. Half of the respondents disagreed and 23% agree to the statement that “Regional energy research institutions influence policymaking more than national research institutions”. The description of the influential studies also indicates that international institutions have played an important role. In the survey questionnaire, around 42% of the respondents agree to the statement that “International research institutions influence policymaking more than regional/local research institutions” and 29% disagreed. On a country level this strongly comes out in Uganda; 13 out of 21 respondents agree with the statement. The importance of international institutions generally seems to be influenced by country-specific factors but the

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Uganda respondents believe that international institutions are playing an importance role in the formulation of energy policies. Probably more important than the distinction between domestic, regional and international institutions are the following characteristics:

1. Reputation of the organisations as well as the experts in them

2. Whether they have been involved in past studies that were successful

3. The quality of research projects

4. Timing

The above findings indicate that for researchers to become influential in policy they have to build their reputation over longer periods of time through relatively successful projects as well as by mobilising better quality manpower. This would also hasten the creation of a strong epistemic community in the energy sector which could play a significant role in influencing policy. Identifying research topics that are currently policy relevant also helps to produce research output in a timely manner; as many examples in the country studies illustrate the fact that some studies have just been completed at the time policy is formulated and this has helped to make them influential. Involvement in studies specifically commissioned by governments for the purpose of energy policy is also of equal importance. Another aspect that comes out of the country reports is the absence of a strong epistemic community, consequently, individual and personal networking is crucial. In African countries beset by institutional weaknesses, personal networking probably plays a more important role than organisational networking. For example, in Kenya, the fact that the person involved in the Kamfor study has been appointed Permanent Secretary has helped to enhance the importance of the report (Mbuthi, 2005). In Tanzania, the fact that the founder and leader of TATEDO was a former government employee has also played an important role in making the report highly influential (Kaare, 2005). However, comparing the power and renewables sub-sectors, it emerges that the former has a relatively strong epistemic community. Further comparison of the two sub-sectors reveals that policies of the power sub-sector are integrated into the national development plans and, therefore, attract significant national budgetary appropriation of projects. In fact, there is empirical evidence from selected eastern and southern African countries that suggests that financial appropriations to the power sub-sector are the largest and account for a growing share of national budgetary allocation. Examples from Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia7 are provided below for illustration: An assessment of Kenya’s 1987-2000 expenditure forecast for the energy sector reveals that only 2.9% of total expenditure was to be allocated to renewable energy compared to the lion’s share of 95% (Ministry of Energy,1987) provided for the electricity sub-sector (see Table 4.3). In addition, the public investment plan indicates that only 1% of priority project investment for the energy sector was allocated to small and medium RETs in 1999/2000 (Ministry of Finance and Planning, 1998).

7 While not one of the country case studies for GDN or UNDP studies, the data from Ethiopia provides very useful insights.

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Table 4.3: Gross Expenditure Forecast for the Energy Sector, Kenya (1987-2000) Sub-sectors TOTAL (Thousand Kenyan pounds) Administration Services 11,515 Planning Services 6,677 Solar And Wind Energy 4,423 Woodfuel Resources 74,321 Other Biomass Resources 2,057 Petroleum Exploration 32,118

Power sub-sector

Electric Power Generation 1,985,210 Transmission Lines/Substations 141,158 Distribution 178,550 Geothermal Exploration 80,200 Rural Electrification 224,081

Power sub-sector Subtotal 2,609,199 Total Gross Expenditures 2,740,311 Source: Ministry of Energy, 1987 In Uganda, the Public Investments Plan which highlights priority projects for funding by Government indicates that renewable energy projects were not considered priority investment projects in the energy sector portfolio. Out of 12 priority projects for the period 1994/95 – 1996/97, only 2 were renewable energy projects, accounting for only 0.3% of total estimated budget for that period (Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, 1994). In Ethiopia, as shown in the following figure, investments in the electricity sub-sector almost tripled during the 1990-2000 period. In contrast, expenditure on renewable energy (represented by traditional and alternative energy) has steadily decreased from about 1% of total expenditure in 1990, to 0.1% of total expenditure in the year 2000 (Wolde-Ghiorgis, 2002; Gashie, 2005). Figure 4.1: Energy sector capital budget shares % and total budget shares in million Birr

for Ethiopia, 1990-2000

Source: Wolde-Ghiorgis, 2002, Gashie, 2005) As demonstrated by the Kenyan and Ethiopian examples, renewable energy sub-sectoral policies are not integral components of national development plans. Consequently, funding for the renewables sub-sector is not only small but has been reducing. However, this is not the case in Botswana. While a significant proportion of Botswana’s Government’s budgetary allocation is on the electricity sub-sector (indicated as rural power supplies), this has not been at

0 %

2 0 %

4 0 %

6 0 %

8 0 %

1 0 0 % S u b -s e c t o r s h a r e o f c a p i t a l b u d g e t

T r a d i t io n a l a n d a lt e r n a t iv e 1 4 . 2 5 . 9 4 . 0 4 . 1 1 0 . 5 0 . 7 0 . 5 0 . 5 0 . 4 0 . 5

P e t r o le u m 2 1 . 8 1 9 . 8 2 0 . 1 1 6 . 9 5 . 5 3 6 . 1 8 1 . 0 9 3 . 2 9 4 . 3

E le c t r ic i t y 3 1 4 . 0 1 8 2 . 0 1 8 7 . 0 2 4 0 . 0 2 6 7 . 0 1 4 5 . 0 8 6 1 . 0 5 3 9 . 0 1 , 2 0 9 . 8 8 6 . 0

1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0

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the expense of the renewables sub-sector. As shown in the following table, expenditure on renewable energy has not only been increasing over the years, it has also been growing at almost the same rate as the expenditure in the electricity sub-sector. Table 4.4 Energy Sector Development Expenditure in Botswana (1997-1998) (Pula million, constant 1997/98 prices) Project Name 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 Total Coal Development 2,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 5,00 15,00 Renewable Energies 0,65 0,97 0,25 0,25 0,25 1,34 3,70 Rural Power Supplies 24,00 25,00 25,00 25,00 25,00 11,00 135,00 TOTAL 26,65 27,97 27,25 27,25 27,25 17,34 153,70 Source: Ministry of Finance and Development Planning, 1997 The next sub-section will briefly outline some aspects in the state of the research-policy link in the study countries and look at future prospects. 4.3. The state of the research-policy link and future prospects In this sub-section the opinions of researchers and policy makers covered by the survey questionnaires about the general characteristics of the research-policy links and their prospects are presented. The data from the questionnaires show that the surveyed researchers and policy makers strongly believe that if there were better links between governments and researchers some of the problems in the formulation of the energy policy could have been avoided. More than 90% of the respondents affirmatively answered to the question “Could better research-policy links have helped address omitted issues in energy policy?” Even though the surveyed researchers and policy makers mainly thought that the research-policy link is satisfactory, as indicated before, most of them think that more could have been done. The above conclusion is also supported by the overwhelming affirmative response – 99% – to the question “Should governments do more to improve the research-policy link?” Data from the survey questionnaires indicate that most respondents are optimistic about the future prospects for a healthy research-policy link. Around 70% of the respondents indicate that the prospects for a healthy research-policy link in the countries are either very good or good; adding those that said ‘satisfactory’ this increases to more than 90%. This optimism can contribute towards improving the research-policy link in the future; optimism about the future state of the research-policy link by policy makers and researchers is obviously one component part for improving conditions.

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5.0 Summary and recommendations 5.1. Summary

This regional report summarised the main results from the country reports of both the renewables-focussed GDN and power sector-focussed UNDP-funded studies and identified some similarities and differences in the experiences of the five study countries: Botswana, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe. The reports used various research instruments to examine the main issues in the research-policy link. Timeline analysis helped to identify the main events and the important steps for research inputs in the formulation of the energy policy document. Text analysis closely examined the text of associated national energy policy documents and compared it with the texts of other research or consultancy studies to determine how much research has influenced policy. Focus groups discussions with policy makers and researchers gathered information on their opinion about the influence of energy research on policy. Survey questionnaires also did that but in a more structured manner. The information from all these sources was marshalled, compared and triangulated to examine the link between research and policy and arranged in line with the GDN explanatory variables, namely: evidence, links, contexts and external influence. Evidence: Text and timeline analysis in conjunction with focus group discussions identified a small number of research undertakings that have influenced the energy policy formulation in each of the study countries. These small number of research undertaking were further examined to identify their characteristics. Almost all the researches identified as influential have been commissioned by the government, irrespective of their nature (i.e whether macroeconomic energy demand forecast, macroeconomic impact of investment or micro-household data survey and analysis). Generally comprehensive policy oriented researches are driven by the demand from policy making rather than independent research leading the way - partly a reflection of the absence of a strong epistemic community (Haas, 1990, 1992; Boudourides, undated) in the energy sector. All the influential researches directly involve policy makers. Research organisations specialising mainly in energy are more influential than those involved in many areas of specialisation. The reputation of institutions as whole as well as those of their respective experts, the past work done by the organisations, the quality and timing of work are important characteristics that determine how influential research undertakings are. It is worth noting that, in several cases, regardless of the nature of the research (i.e whether macroeconomic energy demand forecast, macroeconomic impact of investment or micro-household data survey and analysis), influential researches have a significant level of technical details. This is probably because most of the targeted decision-makers involved in the policy making process have technical academic backgrounds (mainly engineering), hence value highly technical reports. Another important lesson learnt from comparing the power and renewables sub-sectors is that the sub-sector whose policies are an integral component of national development plans attracts more funding from the national budget than the sub-sector that is not part of these plans. For example, there is some evidence from Kenya to suggest that during 1987-2000 the power sub-sector8 received the largest allocation (95%) of the total expenditure forecast compared to the renewables sub-sector (<3%) because the power sub-sector’s polices were integrated in national development plans. The contrast between the power sub-sector and renewables sub-sector indicates that research in a sector that is well integrated in the wider macro-economic policy framework is likely to have greater policy impact than a sector that has limited links to the broad macro-economic framework. 8 Kenya’s power sub-sectoral policies have since independence formed part of the national development plans. These policies are also in the recently unveiled Economic Growth and Wealth Creation Strategy which is the blue-print for the poverty alleviation programme of the ruling administration.

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Political contexts: The restructuring of government ministries in all the study countries created a spur for the development of comprehensive energy policies. In most countries, the establishment of independent ministries of energy or departments of energy within broader ministries was an important catalyst for the preparation of energy policy documents. The establishment of an independent body seems to push the energy agenda to the fore and concentrates manpower specialised in energy. These organisational changes have helped to increase the influence of energy research. However, Botswana appears to be a unique case study in contrast to the other four country case studies. Its renewable energy policy is entrenched in the national development plan. This has resulted into a positive outcome with the increase in budgetary allocation to the renewables sub-sector growing at almost the same rate as the power sub-sector. The Botswana case study demonstrates that the existence of a long-established practice of integrating all sub-sectors into the macro-economic framework allows research in relatively new sub-sectors such as renewables to have significant policy impact. The policy formulation processes in the study countries exhibit many similarities. First, the initial stage where the policy agenda is determined is firmly controlled by the government in all the study countries. This initial stage is crucial since it is the stage where most of the input from research occurs. Due to the difficulties of intervening in the follow-up policy process when it is at the cabinet level or when it is being discussed inside parliament, the importance of the first stage cannot be exaggerated. In addition, the lack of a very competitive political system and weak civic society make interventions in the latter stages of the policy formulation process difficult. The energy policy formulation process in all the study countries was perceived to be very long winded. This is confirmed by both the timeline analysis as well as the opinion of the majority of the surveyed policy makers and researchers. This long drawn process appears to have negatively impacted on the research-policy link because on the one hand, the absence of a strong epistemic community makes it difficult to keep researchers interested for long periods of time and, on the other hand, many issues are overtaken by events. In the case of Kenyan power sub-sector, the long-drawn out process has led to suspension of donor finance for rural electrification programmes. Links: Compared to the role played by new policy institutions and recruitment of skilled personnel, the quality of key personnel seems to play an important role. This is expected in an environment where an epistemic community is weak or non-existent and institutions are relatively weak - the case in most of the study countries. The high rate of staff turnover, both at ministerial as well as middle levels, has significantly affected both the policy and research capacity of government energy institutions and had an adverse impact on research-policy links. In all the case study countries, governments have consulted stakeholders in the preparation of the energy policy document. But as the results from the survey questionnaires indicate, researchers and policy makers think that more consultation of stakeholders is required. A number of researchers are of the opinion that the consultation is cosmetic and at that stage, policy makers have already made up their minds. The surveyed respondents also think that the dissemination of the national energy policy document is still not adequate. But in spite of these reservations, most of the respondents think that the national energy policy document covers most of the relevant issues that need to be addressed. Other contexts and external influence: The recent wave of economic reforms in the form of structural adjustment programmes (that are primarily driven by the World Bank, IMF and key ODA partners) has significantly affected the general policy environment. Even though the overall policy environment is affected by the reform programmes, in many instances policies at the macro level and the energy sector seem to develop in parallel in many of the study countries,

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with the probable exception of Botswana. For example, how specific components of the energy policy are to be related to the poverty reduction objective of the reform programmes is not clear. Botswana’s case appears to be unique as policies for the energy sector development are an integral part of the macro-economic policy making process. Consequently, both the renewables and power sub-sectors have successfully attracted a significant amount of funding from the national budget. In addition, the aforementioned policy making process appears to be a continuous development that has greatly benefited from the country’s good governance and political stability, 5.2. Recommendations The recommendations emanating from the analysis so far are arranged according to GDN’s categories of context, evidence, links and external influence. For each of the GDN-compatible explanatory variables, wherever appropriate, recommendations are sub-divided according to the target groups, namely, researchers and policymakers. Context 1. Integrate energy policy with wider policy frameworks:

a. Researchers: As indicated in the report, most of the study countries as well as other

African countries have not integrated their sector level policies – including the energy policy – with overall macroeconomic policies (with the exception of Botswana where sub-sectoral policies are integrated into a national development plan). For example, even though poverty alleviation is considered as one of the main objectives of government policy, issues of poverty alleviation are not explicitly taken into account in many components of energy policy. This integration of energy policy with poverty alleviation concerns will have a research dimension. Poverty analysis which has now become a standard means of monitoring policy performance has not yet fully taken account of the energy dimension. While in the near-term, investment in integrating energy policy with the wider policy frameworks may not deliver major policy impact benefits in current energy policy processes, this is likely to change in the future as pressure to conform to PRSPs frameworks grows. In the near-term, it would appear advantageous for specialized energy research institutions to develop links with research institutions and policy making agencies intimately involved in the PRSP process. In the longer-term, there may be significant dividends in investing in in-house capacity to undertake research on the nexus between the energy sector and poverty concerns that are now of priority interest in the PRSP and MDGs processes.

b. Policymakers: A number of energy analysts argue that the energy sector in sub-

Saharan Africa is beginning to face funding constraints partly due to insistence of major ODA partners that support is allocated on the basis of PRSPs and MDGs priorities. It would, therefore, be in energy policy makers’ interest to strengthen their links with energy researchers who address the nexus of energy and PRSPs/MDGs.

2. Collect energy related data with welfare monitoring surveys:

a. Researchers: This recommendation is linked to the previous recommendation on

integration with wider macro-policy frameworks. Periodic welfare monitoring surveys are administered by central statistical offices in most African countries to collect data that help to monitor the effect of policy on poverty. These surveys collect information reflecting the livelihoods of people but do not purposefully collect data on energy. If the collection of energy related data is integrated into these welfare monitoring surveys it would provide much needed information that will strengthen the impact of energy research on policy. The collection of additional energy data from these surveys can be done with only marginal additional cost compared to running independent surveys. This represents an important opportunity for researchers to influence policy. With modest

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investments, research institutions can become the premier source of long-range energy data needed to formulate pro-poor policies.

b. Policy-makers; As with the previous recommendation pertaining to integration with the

wider macro-policy framework, it would be in the interest of energy policy makers to forge closer links with researchers who collect time-series energy data as it would facilitates updating of energy policies as well as help in guiding energy policy implementation and monitoring within the increasingly dominant PRSP / MDGs framework.

3. Adapt to the advent of a more competitive political system:

a. Researchers: As indicated in the report, most of the research related inputs in energy

policy formulation occurs at the beginning of the process. However, the rapid democratisation of the region, with regular elections in a competitive party setting, has increased opportunities for influencing policy. It is notable that Parliaments in the region are beginning to assert themselves but, without a strong epistemic community in the sector, energy issues are still perceived as technical and have yet to be aggressively addressed by Parliamentarians (with a few exceptions, notably Uganda). Far-sighted research institutions could begin to exploit this growing opportunity to influence energy policy but forging links with Parliamentarians and positioning themselves as primary sources of independent advice on energy policy to parliament.

b. Policy Makers: Should research institutions begin to forge closer links with

Parliamentarians, it would be in policy-makers interest to deepen their knowledge and expertise of energy issues which would, in turn, necessitate closer links with the research community.

4. Address the excessively lengthy energy policy making process:

a. Researchers: In most of the countries the energy policy formulation is too long and this

was identified as one of the central barriers to greater impact of research on policy. Researchers lose interest in specific energy policy research issues. Events can overtake past policy debates and associated research. On the other hand, research institutions that take a long-term approach to energy policy research through instruments such as low-cost micro-endowment mechanisms would have the staying power to influence energy policy processes by the simple virtue of being the only institutions that are still around and have the institutional memory9.

b. Policy-makers: It is, in the interest of policymakers to reduce the lengthy energy policy

making processes as it would allow more frequent changes that reflect rapidly evolving realities and allow greater use of existing research capacity. Should it prove not possible to shorten the policy process, it would be in the interest of policy makers to encourage energy research institutions to adopt a long-term approach to energy research. This would protect institutional memory and reduce the need to commission high-cost consultancy reports whenever energy policies need to be updated or adjusted.

5. There are inherent advantages in publishing the National Energy Policy as a

Parliamentary Act: a. Researchers: It appears that if the National Energy Policy is to be a legislative Act, it is

enhances the potential for the use of research findings. This is because, it increases the opportunities for research findings to be used by Members of Parliament either at the stage where the National Assembly adopts the Energy Policy as a Sessional Paper or when debating the Bill in Parliament.

9 It is important to note that other BRP studies made contrasting findings by identifying that when policy processes are very much compressed in time, with clear deadlines, etc., the involvement of researchers can also become problematic due to their general inability to deliver “knowledge” on a short notice.

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b. Policy-makers: To effectively discuss the Bill in Parliament, politicians/policy makers

should be engaged with researchers in order to benefit from the latter’s research findings.

Evidence 1. Specialisation of research/consultancy organisations is crucial for influencing policy:

a. Researchers: Specialisation of the research/consultancy organisations in energy related issues is an important factor that can determine the extent to which research influences policy. This comes up repeatedly in the study countries. All influential institutions that were identified have specialised on energy issues.

However, the importance of specialisation could seem to contradict the importance of macro-economic policies which the timeline analysis perceived to be very important. It would, therefore, appear that the best characteristics would be a specialized energy research institution with either good links to macro-economic research institutions or some in-house macro-economic expertise. This appears to have been the case in Tanzania as depicted from the following quote:

“The Ministry was keen enough to find specialists who in a short time and within the limited resources could provide available and easy-to-use research data input to the policy formulation process.” Dr. S. Kaare, Tanzania

b. Policy makers: Similarly, policy-makers should forge links with research institutions

with both specialised energy and macro-economic analysis expertise. In addition, policy-makers in the ministries of energy should also closely collaborate with their counterparts in the ministries of finance and planning in order to access the macro-economic analysis expertise resident in those ministries.

2. Adapt to the high turnover of manpower at the highest energy policy formulation level:

a. Researchers: One of the problems identified in the ministries or departments of energy

is the rapid turnover of key personnel like ministers and permanent secretaries. This turnover creates a lot of discontinuities both in the policy making process as well as in research. This problem is compounded by the current lengthy energy policy making process. Research institutions that can adopt a long-term approach to energy policy research can use the resultant institutional memory to strengthen their influence on energy policy formulation.

b. Policy makers: As mentioned earlier, it is in the interest of energy policy institutions to

encourage the long term development of a critical mass of energy policy research expertise and institutional memory.

3. Adapt to the short-term continued dominance of energy policy formulation by the

executive branch: a. Researchers: In the short run, the dominance of government in determining the

research agenda is expected to continue. Hence, researchers must be alert to respond to the policy initiatives coming from the government; they must monitor the pressing policy issues faced by the government. A good example is the drought related hydropower crises that have repeatedly affected Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda. If research is to influence policy, researchers should more flexibly and quickly respond to

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the current policy issues as it might enable participation in the all-important agenda-setting activities of the policy process and allow the researchers to influence energy policy before it is set in stone. This may require improvement in research capacity in the form of more skilled manpower, additional resources, etc. Research institutions that are able to mobilize standby financial resources that can be rapidly deployed to exploit unexpected opportunities would be well positioned to influence policy.

b. Policy makers: From the policy makers’ point of view, dominating the energy policy

formulation can be taken as positive. Getting feedback as well as original policy-related ideas from autonomous bodies has also advantages. Innovative ideas can be generated, more alternative policy options can be considered, etc., and these can help to minimise mistakes in policy. Hence, even though in the short-term, significant improvements in the capacities of research institutions are not expected, governments should increase consultation and involvement of these institutions. In addition to helping policy process as mentioned, this can also help strengthen the region’s research institutions in the long-run.

4. Increase dissemination of policy related issues and documents:

a. Researchers: In addition to the lack of policy relevant research, the fact that existing research outputs are not well publicised is a problem. For example, during the Kamfor study in Kenya, policy makers recommended that the study should review MA, MSc and PhD theses (Mbuthi, 2005). If there was a strong tradition of publicising academic outputs that are policy relevant, most of this task would have been made easier. Researchers must more aggressively publicise policy relevant research. For example, writing policy briefs of research papers and disseminating them among policy makers is helpful.

b. Policy-makers: Responses from the survey questionnaires indicate that more

dissemination of the energy policy documents is needed. Publicising policy related issues and documents can help more research related feedback. On the other hand, policy makers must always be alert to new policy relevant findings in research. A systematic mechanism where policy makers are informed of the latest policy relevant research output should be established.

Links

1. Take networking potential into account when appointing personnel:

a. Researchers: As mentioned in the findings of the reports, the weakness of the region’s

energy policy making institutions, absence of a strong epistemic community and limited institutional memory, places great premium on personal contacts. Research institutions should therefore either hire or build in-house networking expertise to enhance their impact on energy policy.

b. Policy makers: The country and regional reports highlighted the importance of key

personnel in the research-policy link. When appointing key personnel in the energy related institutions, governments should take the potential of the individual to network with the research community. If governments make this networking potential of key personnel an important criterion for appointment, this can significantly strengthen the research-policy link.

2. Address the high turnover of middle level staff or try to use it to strengthen research-

policy links:

a. Researchers: In addition to the frequent change of top personnel, ministries or departments of energy are also experiencing rapid turnover of middle level professional personnel. Research institutions could consider targeting key skilled Ministry staff for

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recruitment into their research institutions as an important mechanism for influencing policy.

b. Policy makers: To reduce turnover, incentive structures and other attractive packages

that attract and keep trained personnel should be used by ministries or department of energy. But even in cases when they cannot retain their staff, possibilities of linking up with their former employees can help strengthen the research-policy link; this can happen if some of the former employees moved to academic or other research institutions.

3. Increase the participation of stakeholders and researchers in the policy process:

a. Researchers: Study findings confirm the policy impact benefits of involvement of policy

makers in research work. It is, therefore, advisable for research institutions to redouble efforts to involve policy makers at all stages of their research work. This recommendation is supported by a couple of respondents of the survey conducted for the study:

“… there should be stronger connections between research and policy, which means involving both sets of players from the outset instead of doing the research first and then ‘selling’ it to the decision-makers.” Dr. I.N. Obasi, Lecturer, University of Botswana, Botswana

“Research work has to be ticking i.e. ideally the policy makers and researchers must have a collective understanding/ thinking about an issue, which if they can use and agree, then basically they can impact policy making process.” Mr. K.K. Mwandanji, Retired Cabinet Secretariat Official, Tanzania

b. Policymakers: On the other hand, policy makers should also create a mechanism to be

systematically informed about current research. Individuals can be assigned to systematically monitor research undertakings in the country. In fact in cases where the research community is too weak to aggressively publicise its own research, relatively stronger government energy institutions can improve the conditions considerably. Although consultation with stakeholders has now become customary, results from the survey questionnaires also indicate that more is needed. Canvassing more stakeholders and researchers and debating more openly with the policy issues – instead of coming with pre-determined agenda – can help increase the policy debate and the participation of researchers in policy making.

Additional Recommendation Beyond the Energy Sector: The general question of research capacity in highly specialized policy areas is quite important for small developing countries, for example, Uganda. Small countries, and certainly small developing countries, have to rely on international expertise in highly specialized areas of policymaking (energy policy being a good example). While there should be no barrier for small countries to import knowledge from abroad, the question is what is the best way to deliver technical assistance so that recipient countries develop the capacity to implement and evaluate reforms and routine policies, be able to track international advances in relevant knowledge, etc.

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6.0 References Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson (2000), “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation”, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 7771, Cambridge, MA ADB, 2004.African Development Bank FINESSE program expert meeting October 2004.Abidjan: CD ROM ADB, 2004.Selected statistics of African countries. Abidjan: CD ROM AFREPREN, 2004.African Energy Data and Terminology Handbook 2003-2004,Occasional Paper 23.Nairobi, Kenya: AFREPREN. AFREPREN, 2004.The Potential Contribution of Renewables in Ethiopia’s Energy Sector: An analysis of Geothermal and Cogeneration Technologies, Occasional Paper 24.Nairobi, Kenya: AFREPREN. AFREPREN, 2001. Energy Data Reference Handbook VII. AFREPREN/FWD, Nairobi AFREPREN, 2001. Energy Data Reference Handbook VII. AFREPREN/FWD, Nairobi BCSE, 2003.Geothermal Market Assessment Report.www.bcse.org/bcse-eagmacagenda.html. Washington DC, USA, 2003 Boudourides, M.A., undated, “A Review of Network Theories on the Formation of Public Opinion”. University of Patras, Rio-Patras. Campbell, B.M. and J.J. Mangono (1995), “Working Towards a Biomass Energy Strategy for Zimbabwe”, MET Working Paper 001-95-SD, Ministry of Environment and Tourism, Harare Court, J., Hoveland, I. and Young, J. (2005), editors, Bridging Research and Policy in Development: Evidence and the Change Process, ITDG Publishing, Overseas Development Institute, London Court, Julius and John Young (2003), “Bridging Research and Policy: Insights from 50 Case Studies”, working paper 213, Overseas Development Institute, London Dixit, Avinash (1996), The Making of Economic Policy: A Transaction-cost Politics Perspective, MIT, Cambridge, MA Energy Information Administration. (2001) International Energy Outlook 2001. Washington, Energy Information Administration. Gashie W. 2005. ‘Data and Statistics Compilation’. Ethiopia. Haas, P.M. 1992. “Introduction: Epistemic Communities and International Policy Coordination”. International Organization. Haas, P.M. 1990. When Knowledge is Power. University of California Press, Berkeley. Hajer, Maarten (2003), “Policy without Polity? Policy Analysis and the Institutional Void”, Policy Sciences, Vol. 36, pp. 175-195 IEA, 2004.Energy Balances of Non- OECD Countries,2004 Edition. Paris: IEA/OECD IEA, 2003.Energy World Energy Investments Outlook, 2003 Edition. Paris: IEA/OECD

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International Energy Outlook 2001. Washington, Energy Information Administration. International Energy Agency, (1998). World Energy Outlook – 1998 Edition. Paris, International Energy Agency. Kaare, Suma, (2005) “Research and Policy Linkages in the Energy Sector of Eastern and Southern Africa: Case Study of Renewable Energy in Tanzania” Kamese, Geoffrey (2004), “First Draft Report: GDN Study – Uganda”, a draft report, AFREPREN, Nairobi, Kenya Karekezi, S., Kimani, J. and Wambille, A. 2005. Understanding the Policy-Making Processes in Eastern Africa and Identifying Intervention Opportunities for Energy Research. Study Report prepared for the UNDP/GNESD “Capacity Building Initiative for the Development of Policy Dialogue in the Energy Sector in East Africa”. AFREPREN/FWD, Nairobi. Karekezi, S. (1999). Access to Modern Energy – A View from Africa. In “Energy After the Financial Crisis – Energy and Development Report 1999”. Washington, World Bank Karekezi S. and T. Ranja. (1997). Renewable Energy Technologies in Africa. London, ZED Books. Kebede B. (2001). Modern Energy and the Urban Poor in Ethiopia – Literature Review and Associated Empirical Analysis. Medium Study Report for the “Energy Services for the Urban Poor” Theme Group. AFREPREN/FWD, Nairobi. Mapako, Maxwell and Mzezewa, Cornelius (2004), “Research and Policy Linkages in the Energy Sector of Eastern and Southern Africa: Preparation of the National Energy Policy Documents in Zimbabwe”, a draft report, AFREPREN, Nairobi, Kenya Mapako M. and Mbewe A. 2004 (Eds). ‘Introduction; In: Renewable and Energy for Rural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa’. London: AFREPREN/FWD/Zed Books. Marandu, E and D, Kayo,2004.The Regulation of the Power Sector In Africa; Attracting investment and protecting the Poor: London & New York, ZED Books/ AFREPREN Mbithi, Justus (2004), “Preparation of the National Energy Policy Document in Kenya: Research-Policy Link in the Power Sub-sector”, a draft report, AFREPREN, Nairobi, Kenya Mbuthi, Paul. (2004), “Renewable Energy Policy Formulation in Kenya: Research and Policy Linkages”, a draft report, AFREPREN, Nairobi, Kenya Ministry of Energy and Regional Development, 1987. National Energy Policy and Investment Plan. Nairobi. Ministry of Energy and Regional Development. Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, 1994. Public Investment Plan 1994/95 – 1994/97: Priority Projects. Kampala. Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning. Okumu, Dison (2004), “Research and Policy Linkages in the Preparation of the National Energy Policy Document of Uganda”, a draft report, AFREPREN, Nairobi, Kenya Socolow, R.H. 1992. Environment-Respectful Global Development of the Energy System. Princeton: Centre for Energy and Environmental Studies. Squire, Lyn (2002), “Bridging Research and Policy: An Overview”, paper prepared for ABCDE, Europe, Oslo, Global Development Network (GDN), Washington DC

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Stone, Diane (2001), “Getting Research into Policy?”, paper presented at GDN 01, Rio de Janeiro, Global Development Network (GDN), Washington DC Sutton, Rebecca (1999), “The Policy Process: An Overview”, working paper 118, Overseas Development Institute, London The Economist (2005). “The Economist Commodity Price Index”. The Economist, Issue of 3 - 9 September 2005. The Economist Newspaper Ltd, London. p89 The Economist, (2004). “Frozen by Oil-Price Fears”. The Economist Global Agenda, 31 October 2004. London Themba, Godfrey. (2004), “Preparation of the National Energy Policy Document in Botswana”, a draft report, AFREPREN, Nairobi, Kenya United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 1992. Zimbabwe: Photovoltaics for Household and Community Use, UNEP, New York. World Bank, (2004). African Development Indicators,2004. Washington D.C: World Bank World Bank, (2001b) African Poverty at the Millennium – Causes, Complexities and Challenges. Washington, World Bank. World Bank, (2001a). World Development Report 2000/2001. Washington, World Bank. Wolde-Ghiorgis W. 2002. ‘Renewable Energy for Rural Development in Ethiopia: the Case for New Energy Policies and Institutional Reform’. Energy Policy, 30, 11-12 (Special Issue – ‘Africa: Improving Modern Energy services for the Urban Poor’). Oxford: Elsevier Science Ltd.

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Appendix 1 Methodology and Research Instruments Wherever applicable, the GDN framework (Court, et al, 2005)10 for the impact of research on policy was used. The explanatory variables are grouped around the following categories:

1. Evidence 2. Links 3. Context 4. External influence

In order to do the above, the country studies used the following combination of methods and research instruments. First, understanding the research-policy link required knowledge of the process by which policies are formulated. This helps to understand at which particular stages research inputs influenced energy policy. Therefore the country studies compiled a timeline analysis describing the actual steps in the formulation of the national energy policy with particular focus on the role of research. The five case study reports present detailed descriptions of the different steps in the formulation of the national energy policy. Second, the text of the national energy policy document was compared to the text of the research output identified by timeline analysis as having influenced energy policy. The description was to ascertain that the research output has indeed influenced energy policy. Text analysis was used as the research instrument to do this. All the country reports made detailed text comparisons of the national energy policy document and at least one of the researches that was found to be influential. Textual analysis of the energy policy document involved a careful review of the text of the document for the following purposes:

- To identify if any research has been quoted (though this is rarely the case) either in the text or in the references – hence proof that the research may have been used. - To identify where use of research may be implied – this would require a further step to find out from the authors of the policy document (who are accessible) which research may have been used. - To compare the text of the policy document with that of research documents identified in the timeline analysis as being influential and find matching statements. This method proved the most reliable because in more than one country, some sections of the policy document were repeated verbatim from the research report.

10 Evidence: Looks at researchers' private incentives to generate and disseminate policy-relevant knowledge, and factors that influence their capacity to ensure their work has a greater and faster impact on policy. In particular, what is the role of research units – either independent or inside government – and what institutional characteristics and activities help foster research impact on policy, and what practical advice can we provide to researchers on what might work most effectively in different contexts. Links: Examines how different types of research organisations, networks and other types of intermediaries such as media and advocacy groups influence policymaking. Do different approaches to networking and outreach to policymakers work better in different environments? Does legitimacy and trust make a difference, and how can it be strengthened? Context of policy formulation: Identifies practical ways of influencing the demand for, and uptake of, research by policy-makers. Issues to be examined include, factors influencing policy formulation: e.g. macro political and economic structures, the attitudes and assumptions of policy makers, institutional pressures, existing policy narratives and vested interests, factors influencing policy implementation: attitudes, and incentives among bureaucrats, their room for manoeuvre, local history, and power relations. Any decisive moments in the policy process: were there opportunities for fundamental or only incremental changes, or policy windows triggered by internal or external crisis. External Influences: Impact that international issues in general and donors in particular have on bridging research and policy. How can different actors respond to the changing context? Key issues include: The effect of international politics, agreements and policy: are there regional and global issues affecting local policies? The effect of donor development policies, the effect of donor research funding and priorities. See Court, et al. (2005) for detailed discussion of the framework.

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The main aim of the textual analysis is to provide further evidence that the research identified in the timeline analysis actually had a significant influence in the formulation of the energy policy document. Third, in addition to insights from timeline and text analyses, additional data about the opinion of energy related policy makers and researchers were gathered. Focus group discussions were used as qualitative research instruments to gather these opinions. The country studies used information from a limited number of focus group discussions organised after national seminars. Fourth, in addition to focus group discussions, the opinions of energy related policy makers and researchers were gathered in a more structured survey questionnaire. Details of the above four research instruments are given below. A1.1. Timeline analysis In timeline analysis, the steps leading to the current stage in the formulation of the national energy policy document were first identified. In describing each step in policy formulation, which research undertakings had an important impact – if at all – were identified. In addition, the political, economic and external conditions that influenced policy formulation at each stage were established. This information was acquired either by consulting secondary materials and/or interviewing policy-makers who are familiar with the policy formulation process. Descriptions of the steps in the formulation of the national energy policy document started from the current/latest stage and traced back important past events. In each step in the policy formulation process, research undertakings that played a significant role were identified. For example, were workshops/conferences organised to discuss policy issues? Were researchers commissioned to write papers? Did researchers participate in committees (or similar policy formulating bodies) in drafting policy documents? These and similar pieces of information provide ‘objective’ measures of the strength of the research-policy link (number of researchers participating in workshops, number of research papers commissioned, number of researchers participating in policy related bodies/committees, etc.). How far back the timeline analysis should go was a matter of the country researcher’s judgement. It had to go as far back as the time of events believed to be important in influencing the national energy policy document; obviously, those in the recent past were expected to be more important than those in the distant past. If research had significantly influenced the formulation of the national energy policy document, then a closer examination of the type of research that has had an impact was undertaken. In line with GDN’s framework of explanatory variables (Court, et al, 2005), the following types of questions were addressed to ascertain the extent to which research results had significantly influenced policy formulation: Evidence

• What are the characteristics of the research work that has significantly influenced policy? • Are the research undertakings done by national or regional organisation/s? • Are the researchers external or African experts? • Are the research organisations specialised (focusing only on energy) or non-specialised? • Was the research based on nationally representative samples or small in-depth studies?

Links • Are policy-makers directly involved in the research undertakings? • Are researchers directly invited to help formulate policy?

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• Which institutions did the research? Universities, other research institute/s or consultant/s? • How is the agenda of the research organisations determined?

Context and external influence As indicated above the main focus of the timeline analysis was to gather information on research inputs into the formulation of the national energy policy document. Timeline analysis also provided a summary of the main political, economic and external conditions or changes that were significant in facilitating or constraining the research-policy link. In addition to specifically influencing the research-policy link, the characteristics of the research organisations are also affected by political, economic and external conditions – this is referred to as “context” and “external influence” in GDN’s framework (Court, et al, 2005). The main political, economic and external conditions are classified in the following fashion:

a) Macro-political conditions: Were there significant changes in the political structure of the country that facilitated or constrained the research-policy link? Did the changes affect the nature of research institutions? b) Micro-political conditions: Did political changes affect the way government institutions use research in policy-making? For example, restructuring of the ministry of energy, change of personnel (appointment of a new minister or permanent secretary, etc.), etc. c) Macro-economic conditions: Did the overall management of the economy significantly change? Did this have an effect on the research-policy link? Did these macro-economic changes affect the importance of research in energy policy formulation? What about its effect on energy research institutions? d) Micro-economic conditions: Did significant changes in the energy sector alter the government’s attitude towards the role of research in policy formulation? Did increased investment in renewables initiate research and policy in the sub-sector? Did micro-economic changes (for example, changes in the labour market) affect the way energy research organisations operate? e) External conditions: Were pressures from international organisations (for example, the World Bank, the IMF, trans-national corporations, etc.) instrumental in energy policy formulation and in research? Did these pressures lead towards a better or worse research-policy link in the energy sector?

Table A1.2.1 presents a schematic representation of the type of information that was collected using the timeline framework. The selected explanatory variables were based on the initial work in the earlier case study phase of GDN programme on impact of research on policy The information on the types of research, political, economic and external conditions is labelled as ‘Key Explanatory Variables’ because these ultimately determine the nature of energy policy formulation and its link with research. The presentation of the different steps in the formulation of the national energy policy and the corresponding research, political, economic and external conditions very much helped in analytically understanding which factors are more important in influencing the research-policy link. Table A1.1.1: A table for the timeline analysis

Key explanatory variables Types of research

Time Steps in policy formulation

Research input? Yes/No

Evidence Regional vs national

Evidence Specialised vs non-specialised

Evidence External vs African experts

Links Involvement of policy-makers

Other features

Context Political, economic and external conditions

2004 2003 2002 2001 …

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The second methodology analyzed the text of the national energy policy document in relation to any related research material that may have influenced policy. A1.2. Text analysis The timeline analysis described above identified the important actual steps in the policy formulation process and how much research has played a role. Text analysis is the second method through which the influence of research on the formulation of the national energy policy – particularly in relation to renewables - was identified. Analysing the text of the national energy policy document (or its latest draft) proved important. For example, explicit reference of previous research may be given in the national energy policy document and more information on the nature of that research can be helpful. Some policy documents relied on research results without explicitly acknowledging sources; identifying the sources of these research results or ideas was not straightforward. Interviewing people involved in drafting the document and referring to supporting materials or background papers helped in identifying the relevant research inputs. The studies also referred to background materials prepared in relation to the policy document. Workshops organized, particularly in relation to the formulation of the policy document and papers presented there, were reviewed. Some surveys and research studies have been initiated to answer specific policy related questions. Text analysis of the national energy policy document and related materials identified particular research outputs that had influenced policy formulation. After identifying the influential research undertakings, their particular characteristics – as outlined under the timeline analysis – was analysed. Some ‘objective’ measures – such as the number of commissioned papers, the number of researchers in workshops and in the actual drafting of the document – were gathered. The influential research identified by timeline analysis and text analysis were then compared and this provided a basis for triangulation. For example, did the two methods identify the same research studies? The results from the two are reconciled if there are discrepancies. Unlike timeline and text analyses that collect ‘objective’ information, the other two research instruments that were deployed collected information on the opinions of energy related policy makers and researchers. The first method was focus group discussions. A1.3 Focus group discussions Using timeline and textual analyses, a lot of factual evidences on the research-policy links were gathered. In the third and fourth research methods, the opinions of energy related policy-makers and researchers were captured. These were not a collection of factual data but a compilation of the subjective opinions of policy-makers and researchers. The first method was focus group discussions (FGD) which is discussed in this sub-section. The second method – survey questionnaire – is discussed in the next sub-section. Focus group discussion (FGD) is a structured instrument for eliciting the opinions of a relevant group of people. The target groups here are energy related policy-makers and researchers. In organising FGDs, the following basic principles were followed. a) Each group was as ‘homogenous’ as possible. For example, people were not placed in

the same group as those who have a reward power over them; a person sitting in the same FGD group as his/her boss will not freely express his/her opinions.

b) Moderators of FGDs in our case are mainly the country researchers; this task requires a lot of preparation. Discussion questions had to be prepared and written down beforehand and as many of them as possible have to be discussed.

c) Moderators of FGDs were always in control of the discussion. Too much diversion was not allowed and the agenda and pace of discussions was dictated by the moderator.

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d) To ensure that all participants were given a chance to speak, no particular individual was allowed to dominate the discussions. The number of participants in each group was decided in a way that ensured that everybody got a chance to speak.

As per GDN’s framework (Court, et al, 2005), the following questions were discussed in the FGDs organised in the five study countries: Evidence

• Do you think research has significantly influenced the national energy policy document? If yes, which researches? And what are the characteristics of these researches (regional/national, etc.)? • If research has NOT influenced the formulation of the national energy policy, why not? Is it due to the specific nature of the researches? Or due to other factors? If other factors have influenced the outcome, what are they?

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Links • How healthy is the relationship between policy-makers and the research community in general? • What do you think must be done to improve the research-policy link in the country? What should researchers do? What should policy-makers do? • What are the prospects for a healthy research-policy in the country?

Context and external influence

• Do you think that political, economic and external factors have played important roles in determining the nature of the research-policy link in the formulation of the national energy policy?

FGDs provide in-depth information on the opinions of a small number of people. They had to be complemented by an instrument that provides information from a larger number of people. This was done through the administration of a structured questionnaire. A structured questionnaire for eliciting the opinions of researchers and policy-makers on the research-policy link was implemented after a pilot. The next sub-section discusses the implementation of this survey questionnaire in all the five study countries. A1.4. Survey questionnaire A structured questionnaire eliciting the opinion of energy related policy makers and researchers was administered in all the five study countries after a pilot survey. The first version of the questionnaire was revised using the feedback from the pilot survey. The final version of the questionnaire is given at the end of this Appendix. One hundred three questionnaires were completed in all the five countries by energy related policy makers and researchers. Table A1.4.1 provides the number of survey questionnaires completed in each survey country. The minimum and maximum numbers of questionnaires completed in a country are eight and 37 for Botswana and Uganda, respectively. Because the number of completed questionnaires for each country are small in some cases it was difficult to arrive at reliable results on a country level; hence many of the statistics used in this report pool the data. An important question that should be raised here is the issue of how representative were the sampled respondents. For a strict statistical procedure one should start with a complete list of energy related policy makers and researchers in the country which constitutes a sampling frame and randomly select from this list. This procedure could not be strictly implemented because of many reasons. First, making a clear distinction between those policy makers and researchers involved in energy policy and those that are not involved is very difficult; the boundary of the relevant sampling frame is fuzzy. Second, even if that distinction can be made, none of the study countries has a complete list (roster) of energy related policy makers and researchers that can be used as a sampling frame. The complications due to these problems should not be exaggerated. Remember the number of people – both policy makers and researchers – actively engaged in energy policy in general and renewable energy policy in particular in the study countries are small (say compared to other policy areas). Hence, even though the sample is not strictly representative, due to the small number of policy makers and researchers involved in renewables, it probably captures the more important aspects. Table A1.4.1: Number of survey questionnaires completed in each study country

Frequency Percent Botswana 8 7.8 Kenya 27 26.2 Tanzania 14 13.6 Uganda 37 35.9 Zimbabwe 17 16.5

Total 103 100.0

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The survey covered both policy makers and researchers in the energy sector. As the figures in Table A1.4.2 indicate, the numbers of policy makers and researchers surveyed are not very different with the coverage a little biased towards researchers. The 38 respondents that did not indicate whether they are policy makers or researchers are reported as ‘missing’. There is no particular reason to suspect that most of respondents with ‘missing’ category are mainly from one group (either policy makers or researchers). Hence we expect for the rough balance between the number of policy makers and researchers to be maintained for the whole sample. This avoids the problem that the survey captures mainly the opinion of one of the groups. Table A1.4.2: Number of survey questionnaires completed by policy makers and researchers Frequency Percent Valid Percent Policymakers 28 27.2 43.1 Researchers 37 35.9 56.9 Total 65 63.1 100.0 Missing 38 36.9 The balance between policy makers and researchers is also maintained at country levels. Table A1.4.3 presents the number of policy makers and researchers surveyed in each country. As the figures indicate, probably with the exception of Tanzania where the numbers are biased towards researchers, in all other countries the numbers are more or less balanced. Table A1.4.3: Number of survey questionnaires completed in each study country by policy makers and researchers and by countries Policymakers Researchers Total Botswana 2 2 4* Kenya 8 8 16 Tanzania 3 9 12 Uganda 8 8 16 Zimbabwe 7 10 17 Total 28 36 65** * The low number of respondents was due to the unexpected departure of the selected researcher from the country to pursue further studies. A replacement was identified and was able to administer only a few questionnaires. ** This figure refers to the total of policy makers and researchers only. The survey questionnaires were administered in four different ways. First, some of the questionnaires were completed face-to-face; country researchers and their assistants completed the questionnaires by directly interviewing the respondents. Second, some of the questionnaires were completed by the respondents themselves after hand delivery and later the completed questionnaires were collected; this method accounts for more than half (excluding ‘missing’ – see Table A1.4.4). Third, the questionnaires were sent out and collected from respondents through the post. Fourth, the questionnaires were sent out to and collected from respondents through the e-mail; this is the least used method. In some instances using different methods to collect the same type of data may introduce a lot of differences or biases. In our case, the use of these different methods to collect the opinions of the policy makers and researchers does not seem to introduce any systematic bias in our data set; it may affect the response rate but most likely not the quality of data. Table A1.4.4: Different method used for completing the survey questionnaires Frequency Percent Valid Percent Face to face 9 8.7 14.1 Completed after hand delivery/collection 42 40.8 65.6 Sent and collected via post 9 8.7 14.1 Sent and collected via email 4 3.9 6.3 Total 64 62.1 100.0 Missing 39 37.9 Information on the educational background of respondents was also collected. In terms of educational level, half of the respondents have a master’s degree (see Table A1.4.5); more than 95% of respondents have either first or higher degrees. This relatively higher level of educational attainment is a reflection of the fact that the survey focused on trained professionals

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who work as either policy makers or researchers. In addition, the respondents can be classified into almost equal numbers of engineers and social scientists with a smaller proportion of natural scientists (see Table A1.4.6). These combinations of educational qualifications as well as specialisations represent a fairly good cross-section of people active in energy policy.

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Table A1.4.5: Educational qualification of the respondents Frequency Percent Valid Percent First degree (Bachelor) 26 25.2 26.3 Masters 53 51.5 53.5 Doctorate 16 15.5 16.2 Tertiary certificate 2 1.9 2.0 Other 2 1.9 2.0 Total 99 96.1 100.0 Missing 4 3.9 Table A1.4.6: Area of educational specialisation of specialists Frequency Percent Valid Percent Engineering 42 40.8 42.4 Social Sciences 30 29.1 30.3 Natural Sciences 18 17.5 18.2 Other 9 8.7 9.1 Total 99 96.1 100.0 Missing 4 3.9 Tables A1.4.7 and A1.4.8 present the institutions in which the respondents work and their current positions in these institutions. As expected the largest number of respondents is from ministries of energy. The even spread of the other respondents in the rest of the institutions is a good indication that personnel from many energy policy related institutions are represented in the survey. The current positions of respondents in their institutions are given in Table A1.4.8. Here also the survey covers top, high and middle level positions with a higher representation of principal/senior staff; this also indicates that the survey covered a good cross-section of people active in energy policy at different positions. Lower level staff is not represented in the sample because they are not active in policy formulation. Tables A1.4.7: Types of institutions respondent are employed in Frequency Percent Valid

Percent Cumulative

Percent Ministry of Energy 28 27.2 27.5 27.5 Government utility 9 8.7 8.8 36.3 Government research institutions

9 8.7 8.8 45.1

Other government institutions

13 12.6 12.7 57.8

University 15 14.6 14.7 72.5 Independent research institutions

11 10.7 10.8 83.3

Private consulting firm 8 7.8 7.8 91.2 Private energy company

4 3.9 3.9 95.1

Other 5 4.9 4.9 100.00 Total 102 99.0 100.0 Missing 1 1.0

Tables A1.4.8: Current position of respondents in their institutions Frequency Percent Valid Percent Head of institution 15 14.6 22.4 Principal/senior staff 30 29.1 44.8 Middle level staff 22 21.4 32.8 Total 67 65.0 100.0 Missing 36 35.0 In spite of the fact that the sample covered by the survey questionnaire is not drawn from a comprehensive sampling frame and hence is difficult to argue that it is representative in a strictly statistical sense, the figures presented above on the characteristics of the respondents are

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reassuring that the survey is a fair cross-sectional representation of policy makers and researchers in the energy sector of the study countries. The following section examines the policy making process during the preparation of the national energy policy document in the five study countries. In addition to outlining the actual policy process, it examines issues of institutional restructuring and problems in the turnover of staff, analyses who the main actors are, identifies specific research inputs into the policy process, presents the overall political, economic, institutional and sectoral contexts within which the policy was designed. Finally, it reviews possible outside influence mainly coming from international multilateral institutions – referred to as “External Influence” under GDN’s framework of explanatory variables (Court, et al, 2005).

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Questionnaire for Policy-makers and Researchers

African Energy Policy Research Network (AFREPREN) Global Development Network (GDN)

Research and Policy Linkages in the Energy Sector of Eastern and Southern Africa

Preparation of National Energy Policy Documents in Botswana, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe

Questionnaire for Policy-makers and Researchers

July 2004

Purpose of the study and statement of confidentiality: This questionnaire collects data for the AFREPREN/GDN study entitled “Research and Policy Linkages in the Energy Sector of Eastern and Southern Africa” which is part of the global GDN “Bridging Research and Policy” project. The study attempts to identify factors facilitating the research-policy link in Botswana, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe particularly focusing on the national energy policy document. Please complete the questionnaire honestly. All information gathered is confidential and will be used only for research. The identity of the respondents will not be revealed to anyone. Nobody will be able to identify you or use the information against you.

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Part I: Basic information about the respondent

1.1 Name of respondent (optional)

1.2 Age

1.3 Highest educational qualification

(Please tick only one box) 1 First degree (BA/BSc, etc.)

2 Masters (MSc/MA, etc.)

3 Doctorate (PhD or equivalent)

4 Certificate from tertiary

education

5 No tertiary education

6 Other, specify

1.4 Major of the highest educational qualification

(Please tick only one box) 1 Engineering

2 Social Sciences

3 Natural Sciences

4 Other, specify

1.5 Name of current employment institution

1.6 Type of the institution

(Please tick only one box) 1 Ministry of Energy

2 Government utility

3 Government research institution

4 Other government

institution

5 University

6 Independent research institution

7 Private consulting firm

8 Private energy company

9 Other, specify

1.7 Years of employment in the current institution

1.8 Position in the current institution

1.9 Total years of employment in the current and

other institutions

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Part II: Links between the government and research institutions

2.1 Generally, how would you characterise the link between government policy-makers and

researchers in the country? (Please tick only one box)

Very good Good Satisfactory Bad Very bad

1 2 3 4 5

2.2 How much would you agree with the following statement? “The government fully utilised the

research potential of the country in drafting the national energy policy document.” (Please tick

only one box)

Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor

disagree

Disagree Strongly disagree

1 2 3 4 5

2.3 Should the government do more to improve the research-policy link in the energy sector?

(Please tick only one box)

Yes No

1 2

2.4 If yes to the above question, please give at most three things the government should do to

improve the research-policy link.

1.

2.

3.

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Part III: Formulation of the national energy policy document

3.1 Did the preparation of the national energy policy document take too long? (Please tick only

one box)

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

3.2 Were sufficient numbers of workshops/conferences organised in preparing the national

energy policy document? (Please tick only one box)

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

3.3 If no to the above question, what kind of workshops/conferences should have been

organised? Who should have participated?

3.4 According to your opinion, were researchers sufficiently involved in drafting the national

energy policy document? (Please tick only one box)

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

3.5 According to your opinion, is sufficient research on the renewable/power sub-sector done in

the country? (Please tick only one box)

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

58

3.6 According to your opinion, who were the most important driving forces in the preparation of

the national energy policy document? (Using numbers please rank the following; 1 for the most

important, 2 the second most important, 3 the third most important, etc.)

Institutions Rank The government

International/external multilateral institutions (e.g., World Bank, IMF)

National research institutions

Regional (African or sub-African) institutions

International research institutions

Others, specify

3.7 Did some of the following significantly affect the preparation of the national energy policy

document?

(Please tick only one box for each case)

Yes No I don’t

know

Organisational restructuring in the ministry of energy 1 2 3

Change of key personnel (minister, permanent secretary, etc.) in the

ministry of energy 1 2 3

Creation of a new policy-related government institution 1 2 3

Recruitment of skilled personnel from inside the country 1 2 3

Recruitment of skilled personnel from outside the country (e.g., foreign

consultants) 1 2 3

Other factors significantly affecting the policy document, specify

3.8 Using the scales below, please indicate how much you agree/disagree to the following

statements. (Please tick the corresponding boxes; only one box for each statement.)

1 Strongly disagree 4 Agree

2 Disagree 5 Strongly agree

3 Neither agree nor disagree

1 2 3 4 5

Researchers were directly invited to participate in the formulation of the

national energy policy document.

Researchers were sufficiently involved in drafting the national energy

59

policy document.

The national energy policy document covers all relevant issues in the

energy sector.

3.9 According to your opinion, does the national energy policy document cover all relevant

issues in the renewable/power sub-sector? (Please tick only one box)

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

3.10 If no to the above question, please specify at most three relevant issues in the

renewable/power sub-sector not covered by the national energy policy document?

1.

2.

3.

3.11 If the link between the government and researcher institutions was better, do you think the

issues ignored (listed in 3.10) would have been addressed?

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

3.12 In the process of formulating the national energy policy document how much opinion did

policy makers gather from different stakeholders? (Please tick only one box)

A lot Some Little Nothing Don’t know

1 2 3 4 5

3.13. According to your opinion, is the national energy policy document (or its draft)

disseminated well among stakeholders?

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

60

Part IV: Influence of research organisations on policy 4.1 Using the given scales, please indicate how much you agree/disagree to the following

statements. (Please tick the corresponding boxes; only one box for each statement.)

1 Strongly disagree 4 Agree

2 Disagree 5 Strongly agree

3 Neither agree nor disagree

1 2 3 4 5

4.1.1 National energy research institutions influence policy-

making more than foreign research institutions.

4.1.2 Regional (East Africa, Africa, etc.) energy research

institutions influence policy-making more than national

research institutions.

4.1.3 International energy research institutions influence

policy-making more than regional and national research

institutions.

4.1.4 Energy research done by nationals of the country

influences policy-making more than that done by expatriates.

4.1.5 Specialised energy research organisations influence

policy making more than those that have not specialised.

4.1.6 Energy-related institutions that directly involve policy-

makers in the research process influence policy-making more

than those that do not involve policy-makers.

61

Part V: Political, economic and external factors

5.1 Was the national energy policy document significantly influenced by similar experiences of

other countries?

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

5.2 If yes to the above question, the experience of which country/countries did influence? (Write

the name/s of the country/countries)

5.3 How much pressure did external institutions create on policy-makers to use research results

in the national energy policy document? (Please tick only one box)

Heavy pressure Some pressure Little pressure No pressure Don’t know

1 2 3 4 5

5.4 How much pressure did internal institutions create on policy-makers to use research results

in the national energy policy document? (Please tick only one box)

Heavy pressure Some pressure Little pressure No pressure Don’t know

1 2 3 4 5

5.5 Were there significant political events that triggered, facilitated or affected the drafting of the

national energy policy document? (Please tick only one box)

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

5.6 If yes to the above question, please list at most three significant political events and how

they affected the national energy policy document.

1.

2.

3.

62

5.7 Were there significant macroeconomic changes that triggered, facilitated or affected the

drafting of the national energy policy document? (Please tick only one box)

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

5.8 If yes to the above question, please list at most three significant macroeconomic changes

and how they affected the national energy policy document.

1.

2.

3.

5.9 Were there significant changes in the energy sector that triggered, facilitated or affected the

drafting of the national energy policy document? (Please tick only one box)

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

5.10 If yes to the above question, please list at most three significant changes in the energy

sector and how they affected the national energy policy document.

1.

2.

3.

5.11 Were there significant changes in the renewable/power sub-sector that triggered, facilitated

or affected the drafting of the national energy policy document? (Please tick only one box)

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

63

5.12 If yes to the above question, please list at most three significant changes in the

renewable/power sub-sector and how they affected the national energy policy document.

1.

2.

3.

5.13 Were there significant changes in the research institutions that triggered, facilitated or

affected the drafting of the national energy policy document? (Please tick only one box)

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

5.14 If yes to the above question, please list at most three significant changes in research

institutions and how they affected the national energy policy document.

1.

2.

3.

5.15 Were there significant changes in external/international situation that triggered, facilitated

or affected the drafting of the national energy policy document? (Please tick only one box)

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

5.16 If yes to the above question, please list at most three significant changes in the

external/international situation and how they affected the national energy policy document.

1.

2.

3.

64

5.17 According to your opinion, are there particular research projects that have significantly

influenced the national energy policy document? (Please tick only one box)

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

5.18 If yes to the above question, what are the names and types of at most three of the

research projects? (Please tick the relevant boxes)

1 International research institution 5 Not specialised in energy

2 Regional research institution 6 Directly involve policy makers

3 National research institution 7 Done by national experts

4 Specialised in energy 8 Done by expatriate experts

Names of the research project 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

5.19 According to your opinion, are there particular research projects that have significantly

influenced policies towards the renewable/power sub-sector in the national energy policy

document? (Please tick only one box)

Yes No I don’t know

1 2 3

5.20 If yes to the above question, what are the names and types of at most three of the

research projects that have influenced policies towards the renewable/power sub-sector?

(Please tick the relevant boxes)

1 International research institution 5 Not specialised in energy

2 Regional research institution 6 Directly involve policy makers

3 National research institution 7 Done by national experts

4 Specialised in energy 8 Done by expatriate experts

Names of the research project 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

65

5.21 If research in the renewable/power sub-sector has NOT influenced the formulation of the

national energy policy, why not? (If you believe that research in the country has significantly

influenced the national energy policy document, please skip this question. Otherwise, please

tick the relevant boxes)

There isn’t sufficient research capacity in the country producing relevant results.

The research done is not relevant to problems of the country.

The government does not systematically utilise research results.

The government and research institutions do not have healthy relationship.

Other reasons, specify

66

Part VI: Future prospects

6.1 What are the prospects for a healthy research-policy link in the country? (Please tick only

one box)

Very good Good Satisfactory Bad Very bad

1 2 3 4 5

6.2 What must the research community in the country do to improve the research-policy link?

(List at most three)

1.

2.

3.

*****The End***** To be completed by researchers

Country code

1 Botswana

2 Kenya

3 Tanzania

4 Uganda

5 Zimbabwe

Type of respondent

1 Policy-maker

2 Researcher

Individual id code

(number particularly identifying a respondent)

How was the questionnaire completed?

1 Face-to-face interview

2 Completed by respondent, delivered & collected in person

3 Completed by respondent using the post

4 Completed by respondent using e-mail

JBICI Discussion Paper Series Number Author(s) Title Date

1 Eiji Ogawa The US Dollar in the International Monetary System after the Asian Crisis

2/2002

2 Sayuri Shirai Banking Sector Reforms in India and China: Does

India's Experience Offer Lessons for China's Future Reform Agenda?

3/2002

3 Takatoshi Ito Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective?:The

Japanese Experiences in the 1990s 6/2002

4 Sayuri Shirai The Impact of IMF Economic Policies on Poverty

Reduction in Low-Income Countries 8/2003

5 Eiji Ogawa

Kentaro Kawasaki Possibility of Creating a Common Currency Basket for East Asia

9/2003

6 Eric Hillebrand

Gunther Schnabl The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention: GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection

10/2003

7 Keisuke Orii A New Regression Approach to Early Warning

Systems: With Emphasis on Different Crisis Types between East Asia and Latin America

12/2003

8 Shigeru Ishikawa Supporting Growth and Poverty Reduction: Toward

Mutual Learning from the British Model in Africa and the Japanese Model in East Asia

3/2005

9 黒崎 卓 一時的貧困の緩和と円借款への期待 1/2006

10 杉村 美紀 山田 満 黒田 一雄

マレーシアの高等教育における日本の国際教育協力 6/2006

11 Fe Sanchez Bridging Research and Policy towards Innovation in a

Public Sector Bureaucracy: the case of the Philippine Department of Agrarian Reform

7/2006

12 Winrock

International India Understanding the Role of Networks as Connecters in Bridging the Research Policy Gap in Participatory Forest Policy Development in India

7/2006

13 African Energy Policy Research Network

How to Influence Policy in the African Energy Sector – A Guide for Researchers

7/2006

Discussion Paper 及びその他の刊行物は、国際協力銀行ホームページからダウンロードすることができます。

http://www.jbic.go.jp/japanese/research/

ISSN 1347-9148