Date post: | 11-Jul-2015 |
Category: |
Environment |
Upload: | newclimate-institute |
View: | 266 times |
Download: | 0 times |
Global emission pathways towards 2°C targetGood practices for the preparation of INDCs Seminar on International Climate Negotiations
13-14, November 2014, Berlin
Dr. Niklas Höhne
www.newclimate.org
About NewClimate Institute
Non-profit research institute founded Nov. 2014 by 7 former Ecofys colleagues
Offices in Berlin and Cologne (Germany)
Areas of expertise
Climate negotiations
Tracking clilmate action
Climate and development
Climate financing
Carbon market mechanisms
2www.newclimate.org
Content
Global emission pathways towards 2°C
Good practice in preparation of INDCs
3www.newclimate.org
DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
1
Enhancing ambition in the major
emitting countries Technical background report on analysis of current and potential climate
policies
Lead Authors: Annemiek Admiraal (PBL), Michel den Elzen* (PBL), Hanna Fekete (Ecofys), Nicklas Forsell
(IIASA), Niklas Höhne (Ecofys), Anu Korosuo (IIASA), Mark Roelfsema (PBL), Thomas Day
(Ecofys), Heleen van Soest (PBL) [ORDER TBD]
Contributing Authors: Andries Hof (PBL), Michael Obersteiner (IIASA)
* Corresponding author: [email protected]
© Ecofys/PBL/IIASA 2014
DRAFT 16 October 2014 PLEASE DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
Available soon
Country results
4www.newclimate.org
Country results
5www.newclimate.org
New target of the USA
6www.newclimate.org
Source: Climateactiontracker.org
New target of China
7www.newclimate.org
Source: Climateactiontracker.org
Aggregating pledges and action
8www.newclimate.org
Source: Climateactiontracker.org
Content
Global emission pathways towards 2°C
Good practice in preparation of INDCs
9www.newclimate.org
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions under the UNFCCCDiscussion paper
Niklas Höhne, Christian Ellermann and Lina Lihttp://www.ecofys.com/en/publication/intended-nationally-determined-contributions-under-the-unfccc/
Forthcoming:Process guide for INDCs
What types of pledges were presented?
Type Examples
Economy wide emission reduction targets
To base year: USA, EU, Japan
To BAU: Brazil, Mexico, Chile, South Korea
To GDP: China, India
Energy targets China, Peru
Policies Brazil, Argentina
Projects Ethiopia
www.newclimate.org 10
Frist inspirational goal, then national implementation
Type
Economy wide emission reduction targets
Energy targets
Policies
Projects
Examples:• Norway (40%)• Japan (25%)• Costa Rica (carbon neutral)• Maldives (carbon neutral)• South Korea (30% below BAU)
Requirements• Ambitious global goal (2°C or phase out)• Strong national political leadership• Continued strong national implementation
www.newclimate.org 11
National implementation (then national goal)
12
Type
Economy wide emission reduction targets
Energy targets
Policies
Projects
Examples:• Development of specific NAMAs
Requirements• Time for policy development• Knowing the options
www.newclimate.org
Process to derive an INDC
13www.newclimate.org
Political decision regarding INDC
Prepare technical information
Identify co-benefits and mitigation
opportunities
Evaluate costs and support needs
Evaluate ambition
Package and present
contribution
Build leadership
Create efficient processes
Set up institutional arrangements
Engage stakeholders
Elements of a national contribution
Type
Economy wide emission reduction targets
Energy targets
Policies
Projects
• National long term emissions goal• National short term emissions target
• Energy / sectoral targets• Details on highlight policies and projects
• Resource needs for their implementation• Intended provision of support
• Explanations on ambition and equity
www.newclimate.org 14
Examples on possible details of contributions
ElementCountry with high
capability
Country with medium
capability
Country with low
capability
Inspirational national
long term emissions goal
Year of intended phase out of
GHG emissions
Long-term peak and decline
pathway or range-
National short term
emissions target
Precisely defined, economy
wide, multi-year target until
2025 and/or 2030
Indication of mitigation
ambition until 2025 and/or
2030 (below BAU, intensity,
range)
-
Energy / sectoral targets
National energy efficiency or
renewable targets
Targets related to land-use
and forestry
National energy efficiency or
renewable targets
Targets related to land-use
and forestry
National energy efficiency or
renewable targets, if existing
Highlight policies and
projects
Governance structures
Highlight policies / projects
with intended impacts
Governance structures
Highlight policies / projects
with intended impacts
Selection of a few, yet
ambitious policies and/or
projects
International support
needs for mitigation and
adaptation
-
Precise purpose and value of
support needed
differentiated from actions
without support
Order of magnitude of
support needed
Intended provision of
support for mitigation
and adaptation
Source, use and value of
intended support
Intended south-south
provision of support-
Explanations
Detailed explanation why this
contribution is an ambitious
and equitable contribution to
the global goal
Explanation why this
contribution is an ambitious
and equitable contribution to
the global goal
-
15
Conclusions
Current emission reduction proposals and nationally implemented policies for 2020 are not yet sufficient for a 2°C pathway
First INDCs are being announced
Preparation of INDCs:Stakeholder process
More than one target
Explanation why this is a fair and ambitious contribution
16www.newclimate.org
Backup
17www.newclimate.org
Experience from the past on mitigation commitments
Diverse: Pledges are very diverse (economy wide targets to individual projects)
Ambiguous: Pledges often were ambiguous and had to be clarified
2°C: Some pledges are influenced ranges needed for 2°C
Japan -25%, Norway -40%, Mexico and South Korea 30% below BAU…
National: Some pledges are also primarily driven by national discussions
EU, USA, …
Unchangeable: Pledges once made did not change
No major economy has changed its pledge of 2009, although the gap is widely accepted
Even countries that will over-achieve their pledge (new circumstances or more information) do not change it
www.newclimate.org 18
What types of pledges were presented?
Type Examples Characteristics
Economy wide emission reduction targets
To base year: USA, EU, Japan Full flexibility where to reduce emissions
To BAU: Brazil, Mexico, Chile, South Korea
Full flexibility where to reduce emissionsCan factor in economic growthCreates a “moving target” if baseline changes
To GDP: China, India Full flexibility where to reduce emissionsAdaptive to changes in economic developmentEmission outcome uncertain
Energy targets China, Peru Closer to actual actions than emission targets
Policies Brazil, Argentina Directly under control of the government
Projects Ethiopia Very detailed in scope
www.newclimate.org 19
Ways to assess mitigation contributions by countries
Comparison
To BAU
To effort sharing
To mitigation potential
Of decarbonisation indicators
To good practice policy package / policy menu
www.newclimate.org 3
Comparison to BAU
BAU is counterfactual
BAU includes many different developments
Example Brazil36.1% to 38.9% below BAU in 2020
www.newclimate.org 21
Comparison to effort sharing
Large range of effort sharing approaches, e.g. per capita, carbon budgets, equal costs, …
www.newclimate.org 5
Comparison to potential
Large uncertaintiesAssumptions on base line?
Assumptions on cost elements?
Model used?
Source: Fekete et al. 2013. Climate change mitigation in emerging economies: From potentials to actions. http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/378/publikationen/cc_19_2013_vorabexemplar_fkz_3711_41_120_ueberarbeitet_12_12_13_.pdf
www.newclimate.org 6
Comparison to decarbonisation indicators
CO2/kWh
2010 2050
Pledge
Current policy
Required for 2°C
Global average
kWh/cap Pledge
Current policy
Required for 2°C
Global average
2010 2050
Current best practice
Current best practice
Intensity
Activity
www.newclimate.org 7
Comparison to low carbon policy package
Possible approach1. Choose area of
intervention
2. Identify BP incentives and barriers
3. Develop benchmarks
4. Rate policy against benchmark
25www.newclimate.org
Policy package (2) – example building sector- energy efficiency
Indicator for incentives Benchmark for evaluating against best practice
• Incentive (regulation, support and information) for use of efficient appliances, including air conditioning
4: 2-3% per year0: No incentiveMethod: fraction of appliance covered and stringency of the standards (Japanese Top runner or ecodesigndirective). If air conditioning is a major consumer, then buidling standards need to be considered)
• Efficiency standards for new buildings for all types of buildings
4: Zero emissions buildings by 20142: Zero emissions buildings by 20200: No trajectory to zero energy buildings
• Incentive for high retrofit rates for all types of existing buildings (for complete retrofit, i.e. full building envelope & upgrade supply system)
4: > 3% per year (average 2010-2020) and >2% afterwards0: < 1 % per year
• Policy for efficiency improvement for other than heating fuel uses (cooking, hot water use)
4: > 3% per year (average 2010-2020) and >2% afterwards0: < 1 % per year
• Level of energy and/or CO2 taxes (applicable to electricity fuel consumption in buildings)
4: tax is > 100% of energy price0: no tax
26www.newclimate.org
www.newclimate.org
Policy package (cont.) – final overview
Source: Climate Action Tracker country assessment example
10
Comparison More simple
>>>>>> More complex
To BAU
To effort sharing
To mitigation potential
Of decarbonisation indicators
To good practice policy package / policy menu
Complexity of analysis
Downscale regional BAU
Bottom up development of BAU
Use IPCC effort sharing ranges
Own effort sharing model
Categorization of measures
Bottom up modelling of MACC
Use of existing literature
Development of country specific indicators
Application of existing policy menues
Dev. of counrty spec. policy menues
www.newclimate.org 11
Suitable approaches for different types of commitments
Business as usual (BAU)
Effort sharing
Mitigation potential
Decarboni-sationindicators
Good practice policy package
Inspirational national long term emissions goal
National short term emissions target
Energy / sectoraltargets
Highlight policies and projects
www.newclimate.org
Legend
Primary
Secondary
12
Ways to assess contributions
Comparison Considerations
To BAU • BAU is counterfactual
To effort sharing • Wide rage of possible outcomes
To mitigation potential • Costs compared to a BAU, which is counterfactual
Of decarbonisation indicators • Forward looking, no BAU necessary• Indicators close to actions, specially on sectoral
level
To good practice policy package / policy menu
• Forward looking, no BAU necessary• How is the package defined?
www.newclimate.org 13
Comparison to effort sharing
31www.newclimate.org