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Global Market Overview National Renderers Association 2014 Annual Convention Kent Swisher National Renderers Association
Global Market Overview National Renderers Association 2014 Annual Convention
Kent Swisher National Renderers Association
Overview
• Production and Outlook - US • Market Overview – US • Market Overview – Global • Biofuel Review • Outlook
“Quiet Ports – Biodiesel, Cheap Palm and the Decline of North American Fat Exports” – Ryan Standard, Jacobsen
Opening Comment
• The renewable fuel industry globally is driven by government policies.
U.S. Production Fats
NRA Estimates, Render Magazine, Market Report, April 2014
U.S. Consumption Fats
NRA Estimates, Render Magazine, Market Report, April 2014
U.S. Exports Fats
NRA Estimates, Render Magazine, Market Report, April 2014
U.S. Production Proteins
NRA Estimates, Render Magazine, Market Report, April 2014
U.S. Consumption/Exports Protein
NRA Estimates, Render Magazine, Market Report, April 2014
Global Tallow Markets
NRA Estimates, Render Magazine, Market Report, April 2014
Global Tallow Markets
NRA Estimates, Render Magazine, Market Report, April 2014
U.S. Exports of Inedible Tallow
Global Trade Atlas
U.S. Exports of Yellow Grease/UCO
Source: Global Trade Atlas
Market Review - EU
Source: Global Trade Atlas
Market Review - China
Source: Global Trade Atlas
Market Review - Singapore
NRA Estimates, Render Magazine, Market Report, April 2014
Singapore – Renewable Fuel Demand
NRA Estimates, Render Magazine, Market Report, April 2014
Singapore – Renewable Fuel Demand
Singapore – Renewable Fuel Demand
According to Forbes Magazine, no one customer should exceed 20 percent of a company’s business
Renewable Fuel Market
Market Overview Global South American Soybean Oil Export Growth
Limited by Growing Biodiesel Production
USDA/FAS Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade; September, 2014
Supply/Demand U.S. Biodiesel Market
Supply/Demand U.S. Biodiesel Market
Supply/Demand U.S. Biodiesel Market
The Biodiesel/Renewable Diesel Industry is Global
Supply/Demand – Raw Materials
Supply/Demand – Raw Materials
NBB - Promotion
Why Should the Rendering Industry Care About the Renewable Diesel Industry?
Declining Export Markets
Excess Supply of Competing Products
Excess Supply of Competing Products
Excess Supply of Competing Products
Source: USDA/FAS PS&D
Palm Oil – Raw Materials
• 95% Correlation in tallow and palm oil prices January 2003 – December 2011
• 65% Correlation in tallow and palm oil prices January 2012-December 2013
Declining Export Markets
2013 Percent of Production Going to Biodiesel/Renewable Diesel
Threats – IMPORTS!
US Imports of Renewable Diesel 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Singapore 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2 170.4 Argentina 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 123.0 EU28 0.0 0.0 5.2 18.6 115.8 Indonesia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.4 Canada 5.5 6.9 10.8 17.8 33.0 Korea 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.8 Other 0.0 0.0 1.2 9.4 19.6 TOTAL 7.1 6.9 17.2 58.0 530.9
Million Gallons
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Threats - Disease Outbreak Potential
Outlook
• Renderers can’t avoid the impact of the GLOBAL renewable diesel market on rendered products
• Over 2.5 million metric tons (5.5 billion pounds) of rendered products are utilized globally by the renewable diesel industry
• Argentina, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brazil are all rumored or are planning to increase biodiesel mandates
Outlook
• U.S. Rendered Fat Exports – 18% of Production
• U.S. Rendered Fat Use in the Oleochemical Industry – 20% of Production
• Livestock feed, pet food, and carryover account for the rest
Opening Comment
• The renewable fuel industry globally is driven by government policies.
Outlook
• “Now we see domestic consumption of biodiesel is the most significant factor if the government is really committed to the program.”
• “When this program runs smoothly, it will turn Indonesia into a major CPO consumer, thereby pushing up the global CPO price as the supply on the international market reduces.” – Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director of the Indonesian
Palm Oil Association (Gapki)
ALAPRE Meeting 2014
