GLOBAL MARKETING TRENDS: HIGHTLIGHTS OF A RECENT IDF STUDY
DAIRY FARMERS OF CANADA
IDF Canada Dairy Outlook SeminarMay 16-18, 2017
IDF Global Marketing TrendsUnderstanding Changes in Dairy Consumption Around the WorldFinal Report 2016 ‐ December
PRESENTATION OUTLINE1. Canadian Past and Future Trends in Sales Volume2. International Past and Future Trends in Sales Volume
3. Anti-Dairy Movements 4. Conclusion
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION 2
CANADA | 2010-2025
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
CANADIAN SALES VOLUME
• Age and generation effect• Increased competition from other beverages• Health concerns.
Milk
2010-2015:
2015-2025:
Barriers:
2010-2015:
2015-2025:
Drivers: • Image of pleasure• Demand for natural products• Population growth
Butter or Ghee
2010-2015:
2015-2025:
Drivers: • Image of pleasure• Demand for natural products• Population growth
• Image of pleasure• Health concerns• Demand for convenience
Cheese Cream
2010-2015:
2015-2025:
Drivers:
2010-2015:
2015-2025:
Drivers: • Health concerns• Number of new products launched• Demand for natural products
Yoghurt
+5 to +10%
+10% or more
2010-2015:
2015-2025:
Barriers: • Change in eating habits• Health concerns
Ice cream Anti-milk
YES
YES YES
Increasingly aggressive:
Imp. on other dairy products:
Imp. on milk consumption:
Anti-fat
Increasingly aggressive:
Imp. on dairy products consumption:
Anti-cow
Volume
Volume
Volume
Volume
Volume
Volume
Volume
Volume
Volume
Volume
Volume
Volume
+10% or more
-1 to -5%
+5 to +10% +5 to +10%
-5 to -10%
-5 to -10% +10% or more
+1 to +5% +10% or more
-10% or more
YES
• Defense of animal welfare• Milk causes health issues / cancer• Promotion of new dairy and
processed-food free dietsNO
YES
Name:
Organization:
Richard Sanchez
Agropur Cooperative
Canada
Position: Analysis and milk supply manager
3
FLUID MILK | 2015
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION Source: IDF (2016). World Dairy Situation.
ANNUAL CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA IN LITRES
4
2.7
19.325.2
29.7 31.4 34.9 37.047.0 47.0 48.5 50.9 53.1 54.0 55.9
70.6 71.9
83.1 85.0 87.6 90.496.2
105.6107.8110.3113.2
126.6129.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
More than 10% increase
5% to 10% increase
1% to 5% increase
Stable
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline
FLUID MILK | PAST (2010-2015)
Legend
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
INTERNATIONAL SALES VOLUME
JAPAN
AUSTRALIA
SOUTH AFRICA
ISRAEL
FRANCE
CHILE
FINLANDNORWAY
IRELAND
ZIMBABWE
DENMARK
USA
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
UK
INDIA
SWEDEN
ICELAND
LITHUANIA
ARGENTINA
CHINA
CANADA
MEXICO
BELGIUM
CYPRUS
SPAIN
NEW ZEALAND
5
Numbers of respondents: 27
JAPAN
AUSTRALIA
SOUTH AFRICA
ISRAEL
FRANCE
CHILE
FINLANDNORWAY
IRELAND
ZIMBABWE
DENMARK
USA
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
UK
INDIA
SWEDEN
ICELAND
LITHUANIA
ARGENTINA
CHINA
CANADA
MEXICO
BELGIUM
CYPRUS
SPAIN
NEW ZEALAND
More than 10% increase
5% to 10% increase
1% to 5% increase
Stable
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline
FLUID MILK | FUTURE (2015-2025)
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
INTERNATIONAL SALES VOLUME
6
Legend
Numbers of respondents: 27
More than 10% increase
5% to 10% increase
1% to 5% increase
Stable
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline
LIQUID CREAM | PAST (2010-2015)
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
INTERNATIONAL SALES VOLUME
JAPAN
AUSTRALIA
SOUTH AFRICA
ISRAEL
FRANCE
CHILE
FINLANDNORWAY
ZIMBABWE
DENMARK
USAGERMANY
NETHERLANDS
UK
SWEDEN
ICELAND
LITHUANIA
ARGENTINA
CHINA
CANADA
MEXICO
BELGIUM
SPAIN
NEW ZEALAND
7
Legend
Numbers of respondents: 24
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% increase
5% to 10% increase
1% to 5% increase
Stable
1% to 5% decline
More than 10% decline
LIQUID CREAM | FUTURE (2015-2025)
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
INTERNATIONAL SALES VOLUME
JAPAN
AUSTRALIA
ISRAEL
FRANCE
CHILE
FINLAND
ZIMBABWE
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
SWEDEN
LITHUANIA
ARGENTINA
CHINA
SPAIN
NORWAY
SOUTH AFRICA
DENMARK
USA
UK
ICELAND
CANADA
MEXICO
BELGIUM
NEW ZEALAND
Legend
8
Numbers of respondents: 24
BUTTER | 2015
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION Source: IDF (2016). World Dairy Situation.
ANNUAL CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA IN KILOGRAMS
0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.91.4 1.4
1.92.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3
3.8 3.9
4.9 4.9
5.8
8.0
0123456789
9Zimbabwe: Not available
More than 10% increase
5% to 10% increase
1% to 5% increase
Stable
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline
BUTTER AND GHEE | PAST (2010-2015)
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
INTERNATIONAL SALES VOLUME
JAPAN
AUSTRALIA
SOUTH AFRICA
ISRAEL
FRANCE
CHILE
FINLAND
NORWAY
IRELAND
ZIMBABWE
DENMARK
USA
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
UK
INDIA
SWEDEN
ICELAND
LITHUANIA
ARGENTINA
CHINA
CANADA
MEXICO
BELGIUM
SPAIN
NEW ZEALAND
Legend
10
Numbers of respondents: 26
JAPAN
AUSTRALIA
SOUTH AFRICA
ISRAEL
FRANCE
CHILE
FINLAND
NORWAY
IRELAND
ZIMBABWE
DENMARK
USA
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
UK
INDIA
SWEDEN
ICELAND
LITHUANIA
ARGENTINA
CHINA
CANADA
MEXICO
BELGIUM
SPAIN
NEW ZEALAND
CYPRUS
More than 10% increase
5% to 10% increase
1% to 5% increase
Stable
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline
BUTTER AND GHEE | FUTURE (2015-2025)
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
INTERNATIONAL SALES VOLUME
Legend
11
Numbers of respondents: 27
CHEESE | 2015
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
ANNUAL CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA IN KILOGRAMS
0.1 0.62.0 2.2
3.8
8.8 8.9 9.112.1 12.5 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.9 16.0 16.9
18.2 18.319.5 20.7
24.2 24.626.1 26.2 26.7 26.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Source: IDF (2016). World Dairy Situation.[1] All kinds of cheeseIndia: Not available 12
More than 10% increase
5% to 10% increase
1% to 5% increase
Stable
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline
CHEESE | PAST (2010-2015)
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
INTERNATIONAL SALES VOLUME
JAPAN
AUSTRALIA
SOUTH AFRICA
ISRAEL
FRANCE
CHILE
FINLAND
NORWAY
IRELAND
ZIMBABWE
DENMARK
USA
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
UK
SWEDEN
ICELAND
LITHUANIA
ARGENTINA
CHINA
CANADA
MEXICO
BELGIUM
CYPRUSSPAIN
NEW ZEALAND
Legend
13
Numbers of respondents: 26
More than 10% increase
5% to 10% increase
1% to 5% increase
Stable
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline JAPAN
AUSTRALIA
SOUTH AFRICA
ISRAEL
FRANCE
CHILE
FINLAND
NORWAY
IRELAND
ZIMBABWE
DENMARK
USA
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
UK
SWEDEN
ICELAND
LITHUANIA
ARGENTINA
CHINA
CANADA
MEXICO
BELGIUM
CYPRUSSPAIN
NEW ZEALAND
CHEESE | FUTURE (2015-2025)
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
INTERNATIONAL SALES VOLUME
Legend
Numbers of respondents: 26
14
More than 10% increase
5% to 10% increase
1% to 5% increase
Stable
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline
YOGURT | PAST (2010-2015)
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
INTERNATIONAL SALES VOLUME
JAPAN
AUSTRALIA
SOUTH AFRICA
ISRAEL
FRANCE
CHILE
FINLANDNORWAY
ZIMBABWE
DENMARK
USA
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
UK
INDIA
SWEDEN
ICELAND
LITHUANIA
ARGENTINA
CHINA
CANADA
MEXICO
BELGIUM
SPAIN
NEW ZEALAND
Legend
Numbers of respondents: 25
15
More than 10% increase
5% to 10% increase
1% to 5% increase
Stable
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline
YOGURT | FUTURE (2015-2025)
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
INTERNATIONAL SALES VOLUME
JAPAN
AUSTRALIA
SOUTH AFRICA
ISRAEL
FRANCE
CHILE
FINLANDNORWAY
ZIMBABWE
USA
INDIA
SWEDEN
ICELAND
ARGENTINA
CHINA
CANADA
MEXICO
SPAIN
JAPAN
SOUTH AFRICA
DENMARK
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
UK
INDIA
LITHUANIA
CHINA
BELGIUM
NEW ZEALAND
Legend
Numbers of respondents: 25
16
More than 10% increase
5% to 10% increase
1% to 5% increase
Stable
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline
ICE CREAM | PAST (2010-2015)
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
INTERNATIONAL SALES VOLUME
JAPAN
AUSTRALIA
FINLAND
NORWAY
ZIMBABWE
USA
UK
INDIA
SWEDEN
LITHUANIA
CHINA
CANADA
BELGIUM
NEW ZEALAND
Legend
Numbers of respondents: 14
17
More than 10% increase
5% to 10% increase
1% to 5% increase
Stable
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline
ICE CREAM | FUTURE (2015-2025)
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
INTERNATIONAL SALES VOLUME
FINLAND
JAPAN
AUSTRALIAZIMBABWE
UK
LITHUANIA
CANADA
NEW ZEALAND
NORWAY
USA
INDIA
SWEDEN
CHINA
CANADA
BELGIUM
Legend
Numbers of respondents: 14
18
LegendYes
ANTI-MILK DEBATES | 2015
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
JAPAN
IRELAND
AUSTRALIA
SOUTH AFRICA
CHILE
INDIA
ZIMBABWE
ISRAEL
FRANCE
FINLANDNORWAY DENMARK
USA
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
UK
SWEDEN
ICELAND
LITHUANIA
ARGENTINA
CHINA
CANADA
MEXICO
BELGIUM
CYPRUS
SPAIN
NEW ZEALAND
No
More and more hostile
Numbers of respondents: 27
19
LegendYes
ANTI-FAT DEBATES | 2015
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
No
More and more hostile
JAPAN
IRELAND
AUSTRALIA
SOUTH AFRICA
CHILE
ZIMBABWE
ISRAELFRANCE
FINLAND
NORWAY
DENMARK
USA
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
UK
SWEDEN
ICELAND
LITHUANIA
ARGENTINA
INDIA
CHINA
CANADA
MEXICOCYPRUS
BELGIUM
SPAIN
NEW ZEALAND
Numbers of respondents: 27
20
LegendYes
ANTI-COW BREEDING DEBATES | 2015
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION
No
IRELAND
CHILE
ZIMBABWE
USA
ICELAND
LITHUANIA
ARGENTINA
INDIA
CHINA
MEXICO
CYPRUS
BELGIUM
JAPAN
SOUTH AFRICA
ISRAEL
FRANCE
NORWAY
DENMARK
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
UK
SWEDEN
CANADA
SPAIN
NEW ZEALAND
Numbers of respondents : 25
21
Some worrying signals:
• Anti-milk arguments continue to spread through mass media, influencing public opinion.
• Movements that criticize cattle breeding.
• Nutritional, ethical, societal, and environmental issues related to dairy products.
A positive future:
• Anticipated future trends are growing for most dairy products.
• Forecasts are improving for fluid milk and ice cream.
• Even countries witnessing a slight market downturn or stability, should see their performance on the dairy market improve.
CONCLUSION
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION 22
THANK YOU
DAIRY FARMERS OF CANADA
IDF Canada Dairy Outlook SeminarMay 16-18, 2017
IDF Global Marketing TrendsUnderstanding Changes in Dairy Consumption Around the WorldFinal Report 2016 ‐ December